Niq Global Intelligence Plc · NYSE:NIQ
Niq Global Intelligence — Webinar Consumer Tech and Durables Outlook 2024
32 slides from Niq Global Intelligence's conference presentation, Mar 21, 2024
Slide 1: State of the industry and outlook for 2024
State of the industry How much pressure will consumer wallets be under in 2024? and outlook for 2024 What manufacturers should How will consumers know about this year react to that in 2024? How do you find Jan Lorbach pockets of growth? Global Strategic Insights
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda How much pressure will consumer wallets be under in 2024? Macro and legislatively enforced How will consumers react to that in 2024? Consumer pull/needs How do you find pockets of growth? Manufacturer push/margin drive 21/03/2024 © GfK 2
Slide 3: Agenda: Macro and legislatively enforced
Agenda How much pressure will consumer wallets be under in 2024? Macro and legislatively enforced How will consumers react to that in 2024? How do you find pockets of growth? 21/03/2024 © GfK 3
Slide 4: Overall, what macro themes will impact markets in 2024?
Overall, what macro themes will impact markets in 2024? Wars and geopolitical tensions Inflation is expected to continue continue to inhibit global trade to decrease at a steady rate in and have a significant impact on 2024, especially in advanced supply chains, and inhibits economies, but remai
Slide 5: Chief economists expect global economy to weaken in 2024
More than half (56%) of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken in 2024 with geoeconomic fragmentation expected to accelerate The prediction of high inflation has cooled, but regional growth outlook varies Chief Economist Survey | Expectations for GDP growth/inflation in 2024 | January
Slide 6: Decline across regions after saturation
Decline across regions after saturation Only Middle East/Africa outperforms Technical Consumer Goods | Sales Value USD (NSP) | Jan-Dec 2023 vs 2022 Global (excl. NA) Turnover $ 813 bn Macro and legislatively enforced Growth Rate -2.9% $65bn -0.4% $199bn -1.4% Eastern Europe $95bn -7.1% Western Europ
Slide 7: Consumer confidence indexes have improved but remain historically low
Consumer confidence indexes have improved but remain historically low The index in China is particularly low, barely improving on the index during COVID-19 lockdown measures Macro and legislatively enforced USA Euro area China OECD 96.9 96.2 Nov 22 Oct 22 (China) 93.0 96.2 vs 97.1 98.1 Nov 23 Oct 23
Slide 8: Price sensitivity peaked in 2023 while consumer sentiment is set to improve
Price sensitivity peaked in 2023 while consumer sentiment is set to improve 45% agree “Price is the most important factor Macro and legislatively enforced in my purchasing decisions” #12 life attitude on a list of 41 consistently tracked attitudes Consumer financial position | Sentiment year-over-ye
Slide 9: Demand is pausing; revenue gain only from price tier shifts
The demand is pausing – that leads to the fact that revenue gain can only come from price tier shifts B2C Retailer Market | 2019-2023 Core Covid boosting sales Budget shifts from Out-of-home Saturation and budget around Work@home and activites to big ticket appliances and tensions starting to erode
Slide 10: Promising dynamic for Consumer Tech & Durables market in Q4 2023
Promising dynamic for Consumer Tech & Durables market in Q4 2023 A sign of stabilization in times of low willingness to spend and elevated market saturation TCG total | Period: January 2023 – Dec 2023 | Value growth USD +/-% Inflation global (OECD) Nov 23 Macro and legislatively enforced -9.7 Q1 202
Slide 11: Q4 outpacing the FY in any sector
Q4 was outpacing the FY in any sector, but changed the perspective for Telecom and Domestic Appliances significantly Sales value growth % | FY vs PY | Jan-Dec | Value (USD) Full Year 2023 Q4 / 2023 Strong promotion Strong promotions for Macro and legislatively enforced Renewal cycle effect season, D
Slide 12: Global market for technical consumer goods: consumer share of wallet
Global market for technical consumer goods: consumer share of wallet Further market stabilization expected for 2024 Value Growth +0.9% Macro and legislatively enforced Telecom +3% 42.4% 2024 Sales Value total Major Domestic $1,224bn Appliances 0% 15.4% +0.9% 2024 (forecast) IT incl. Office Products
Slide 13: Agenda: Consumer pull/needs
Agenda How much pressure will consumer wallets be under in 2024? Consumer pull/needs How will consumers react to that in 2024? How do you find pockets of growth? Manufacturer push/margin drive 21/03/2024 © GfK 13
Slide 14: Out-of-home orientation resulted in some TCG categories growing in 2023
Out-of-home orientation has resulted in some TCG categories growing in 2023 We see growth in products which help you look good and entertainment on the go increasing Consumer pull/needs Digital Camera Mobile Headsets Hair Dryer Hair Styler & Headphone +13% +7% +3% +7% International tourism arrivals
Slide 15: What societal events are top of mind for consumers in 2024?
What societal events are top of mind for consumers in 2024? Consumer pull/needs Starting with Taiwan in January and An extra three million people are Euro UEFA cup in June and July running through the US presidential expected in Paris for the Olympic attracts a cumulative audience of over elec
Slide 16: Olympics exert significant impact on sales solely within host country
Olympics exert a significant impact on sales solely within the host country, with minimal influence on TV sales in neighboring regions However, leveraging local promotions presents a promising opportunity for businesses PTV | GfK Panelmarket | Sales Units vs PY% Consumer pull/needs 11 7 3 0 -7 -6 Du
Slide 17: Revenue for TV usually gain prior to the event
Revenue for TV usually gain prior to the event Data shows revenue gain the week prior to the events – eventually we can expect that TV sales will peak again prior to EURO24, giving retailers and manufacturer a window of opportunity Euro Revenue Weight of Week prior the event vs Average week in the y
Slide 18: Promotions are an opportunity to quickly gain revenues
Promotions are more and more an opportunity to quickly gain revenues Over a third of annual revenues are done at promotional period! TCG Sales: TCG Sales: Event % of Event % of Consumer pull/needs year in year in 2018 2023 It is observed that the spread of promotions has increased from 10 to 15 week
Slide 19: Average price paid during Black Friday is clearly elevated
Average price paid during Black Friday is clearly elevated compared to the average annual market price More expensive products are sold during the promotion Consumer pull/needs Flat TV Black Friday1, 476 EUR Refrigerator 2023 Black Friday 444 EUR 575 EUR Smartphone (W47) 535 EUR 454 EUR Dental Care
Slide 20: Promotions create a desire for consumers
Promotions create a desire for consumers Sales are rather triggered by consumer upgrading than replacing! Survey Question: Did you buy it to…? Year End promotions are driven by products consumers “want” to have instead of “need”. Eventually innovative products could help to drive these promotions! C
Slide 21: The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets
The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets Business model Consumer pull/needs Convenience 47% agree “I prefer to own fewer but Performance and connectivity higher quality items (clothes, technology products, etc.)” Health, hygiene and wellbeing #9 life attitude, ↑2 ranks from 2021, ↑4 from 2019
Slide 22: The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets
The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets Business model Consumer pull/needs Convenience 47% agree “I prefer to own fewer but Performance and connectivity higher quality items (clothes, technology products, etc.)” Health, hygiene and wellbeing #9 life attitude, ↑2 ranks from 2021, ↑4 from 2019
Slide 23: Select premium feature sales vs category average
Select premium feature sales increased/declined slower than the category average Global (ex. NA) | Jan-Dec 2023 | Sales Value USD Growth YoY % | Premium segment example vs category total Consumer pull/needs Hot Air >=256GB Storage +38% +29% 35% French Door +75” Screen Steam Refrigerator +12% Wet & D
Slide 24: Agenda: Manufacturer push/margin drive
Agenda Consumer pull/needs How much pressure will consumer wallets be under in 2024? Manufacturer How will consumers push/margin react to that in 2024? drive How do you find pockets of growth? 21/03/2024 © GfK 24
Slide 25: The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets
The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets Business model Manufacturer push/margin drive Convenience 47% agree “I prefer to own fewer but Performance and connectivity higher quality items (clothes, technology products, etc.)” Health, hygiene and wellbeing #9 life attitude, ↑2 ranks from 2021, ↑4
Slide 26: The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets, also in retail
The focus on quality emerges in growth pockets Also in Retail! Business model Manufacturer push/margin drive Consumer expecting new ways of Convenience how they can purchase products – and they recognize added value and convenience in their purchases. Performance and connectivity Retailers and Manuf
Slide 27: E-commerce vs traditional retail dynamics
E-commerce vs traditional retail dynamics stable on post-COVID level YoY growth | Sales value | % online sales Jan – Dec 36.1% 2023 Manufacturer push/margin drive +0.1% +46% growth 36.0% 2022 +0.4% 35.6% 2021 +1.6% 34.0% 2020 +9.8% 24.2% 2019 21/03/2024 *All audited GfK countries (ex. North America)
Slide 28: Consumers demand a seamless shopping experience
Consumers demand a seamless shopping experience Business model Manufacturer push/margin drive Prices & Promotions Free Delivery Can Touch the Convenience (36%) Product (27%) Stock Availability Fast Delivery Detailed Product Knowledgeable (40%) Information Staff (22%) Ease of Finding & Comparing Prod
Slide 29: Rise of new expectations
Rise of new expectations Services that go beyond traditional retail Business model Ecosystem Ecosystem Manufacturer push/margin drive 19% 25% Prices & Promotions Free Delivery Can Touch the Convenience (36%) Product (27%) Stock Availability Fast Delivery Detailed Product Knowledgeable (40%) Informat
Slide 30: Innovate to deliver value via ecosystems
Innovate to deliver value via ecosystems Create more meaningful engagement with consumers and new growth opportunities Business model Entertainment 19% Manufacturer push/margin drive Subscription services 31% Additional services to 67% build the ecosystem Financial services 45% Marketing and adverti
Slide 31: Summary
Summary How much pressure Consumer wallets are expected to remain under significant pressure in 2024 due to the continuation of will consumer wallets macroeconomic uncertainties such as geoeconomic fragmentation and varying regional growth outlooks. be under in 2024? Although the prediction of h
Slide 32: Thank you
Thank you gfk.com
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