Slide 1: Task Force MOG 2
Task Force MOG 2 24.06.2022
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Task Force MOG 2 24/06 EDS preparation Connection requirements Overview of technical specification/interface [75 min] Overview of technical specifications (island overview, grid design 66kV, interface point, testing requirement 66kV, protection concept/philosophy, wind park control cubicles)
Slide 3: Connection requirements
ria Connection requirements
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda 1. Context 2. Island concept 3. Grid design 4. Interface point & protection concept 5. Windfarm control cubicles 6. Testing requirements Array cables 4
Slide 5: Context
Context Tom Trappeniers Davy Verwilghen
Slide 6: Offshore Tomorrow: more offshore wind & first energy island
Offshore Tomorrow : more offshore wind & first energy island Creation of an offshore energy transmission hub in the form of an artificial island • Grid connection for 3,15 to 3,5 GW of additional offshore wind farms in the Belgian North Sea • Connection point for future offshore interconnections Mai
Slide 7: The Energy Island Timeline
The Energy Island Timeline Official timing as communicated on administration website 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Preparatory stage Preliminary studies offshore wind zones b
Slide 8: Island concept
Island concept Tom Trappeniers Davy Verwilghen
Slide 9: Island location and relevant conditions
Island location and relevant conditions N Dominant wave directions • Island located in Princess Elisabeth zone Tidal currents • Island location subject to EIA Island location Natura 2000 9
Slide 10: Island orientation
Island orientation N (True North) • The island has an orientation of ~30° in line with the tidal current flows to minimize environmental impact; N’ • Due to its sheltered location the Quay area and CTV port entrance are located on the Eastern side of the Island W’ E’ S’ 10
Slide 11: Design concept / Rationale
Design concept / Rationale • Caisson structure • 3 sides ‘exposed’ (N, S, W) with high Primary wave wall to limit overtopping; • Buffer zone behind Wave Walls to catch and drain overtopping water towards the Eastern (sheltered) side of the Island. This buffer zone shall be used for logistics and or
Slide 12: Island Design: potential layout
Island Design: potential layout AC substations DC substations DC converter 12
Slide 13: Grid design
Grid design Tom Trappeniers Davy Verwilghen
Slide 14: Grid design
Grid design • 10 blocks of 350MW • 1 transformer • 1 GIS cabine 66kV • Array cables: • 66kV • 90MW/string • 1 spare bay per 350MW • 1 export cable 220kV/ HVDC • 1 shunt reactor per AC export cables 14
Slide 15: Impact of 132kV array cables
Impact of 132kV array cables Turbines 14-18MW expected (2027 – 2030) (= 10-13 turbines/string @ 132kV) Turbine manufacturers not (yet) working on design 132kV* MVar compensation possible, but challenging (Q ~ U²) Reduced array cable length Reduced # array cable landfalls on island Increa
Slide 16: Interface point & protection philosophy
Interface point & protection philosophy Damien Rietjens Davy Verwilghen
Slide 17: Interfaces
Interfaces Z Elia Sub. Island Connectionpoint A C Grid User Property & Maintenance Interfacepoint Border Elia Property & Maintenance B Cable Connection Inter Area Inter Area Inter Area Border Grid User The Connection Point is the point where the Grid User is connected to the grid. It is usually loca
Slide 18: Interfaces
Interfaces Z Elia Sub. Island Connectionpoint A C Grid User Property & Maintenance Interfacepoint Border Elia Property & Maintenance B Cable Connection Inter Area Inter Area Inter Area Border Grid User The Connection Point is the point where the Grid User is connected to the grid. It is usually loca
Slide 19: Operations and Protections
Elia Sub. Island Operations Elia Operates first connection field Grid User fully and independently operates the entire string as of the first wind turbine In order to be fully independent a circuit breaker is placed in the first Inter Area Inter Area Inter Area wind turbine Protections Elia Sub. Isl
Slide 20: Operations and Protections
Elia Sub. Island Operations Elia Operates first connection field Grid User fully and independently operates the entire string as of the first wind turbine In order to be fully independent a circuit breaker is placed in the first Inter Area Inter Area Inter Area wind turbine Protections Elia Sub. Isl
Slide 21: Protection 66kV feeders
Protection 66kV feeders • 66 kV feeders are protected with P1 and P2 • Two distance protections • Protection settings and coordination : shared responsibility between customer and Elia • Forward zones (direction cable): to be agreed between customer and Elia • Backward zone (direction busbar): to be
Slide 22: Windfarm Interface and communication cubicles
Windfarm Interface and communication cubicles Tom Trappeniers Davy Verwilghen
Slide 23: Windfarm Interface and communication cubicles 1/2
Windfarm Interface and communication cubicles 1/2 1 room per windfarm operator. • Interface cubicle WPO – TSO: 1 or 2 cubicles? • Hardwire vs protocol interface to be investigated • Windpark control cubicles: 2-3? • Telecom cubicles: 1or 2? • DTS?: 2? • Metering: tbd • Desk + cupboard for schematics
Slide 24: Windfarm Interface and communication cubicles 2/2
Windfarm Interface and communication cubicles 2/2 Elia will provide « dark » fibers in the export cables • # of fibers to be determined: 24? Elia will provide AUX power supply • 2x 110DC • 1x 230Vac? any thoughts? 24
Slide 25: Open questions
Open questions Tom Trappeniers Davy Verwilghen
Slide 26: Summary of open questions
Summary of open questions • Required space in windfarm operator room • # of fibers per windfarm • Requirements 110Vdc, 230Vac,… • Would you consider HV tests on the 66kV cables? 26
Slide 27: Dynamic & Harmonic
lia Dynamic & Harmonic
Slide 28: Generalities
Generalities Olivier Bronckart
Slide 29: Power system stability phenomena already mastered on AC grids
Power system stability and phenomena are not new and already faced and mastered on existing AC extra high voltage grid since several decades Power System Stability Phenomena Rotor angle stability Frequency Stability Voltage Stability Small- Large- Small- Disturbance Transient disturbance disturbance
Slide 30: Impacts of these phenomena observed in the past
Several impacts of these phenomena were already observed in the past and require development of solutions to limit the impact 2 3 Examples of some events observed in the past 4 1 Main events Rotor angle stability Black out in North Western Long lasting West-East inter-area CE system split in Balkans
Slide 31: Recent and future trends of the power system lead to new phenomena
Recent and future trends of the power system leads to new phenomena Power System Stability Recent and new trends Resonance Converter Rotor angle Frequency Voltage stability driven stability stability Stability Stability Increasing & accelerating RES ambition Fast Slow Small- Large- Small- Electrical
Slide 32: Power electronics vs rest of the system
Power electronics vs “rest of the system” will require solutions to keep stability under control to guarantee the security of the grid - New technology - “Old technology”= well understood Rest of the system (MT)HVDCs (& IBRs) - Intellectual property issues on - Open information as technology is beha
Slide 33: MOG 2 case
-€ elia MOG 2 case Olivier Bronckart
Slide 34: EHV evolution of the Belgian Coastal area for 2030
EHV evolution of the Belgian Coastal area for 2030 = ~ From 3 GW to ~7 GW of PE connected in ‘antenna’ to Belgian grid High concentration of Power Electronics in the coastal area, where grid condition in N are weak, and even weaker in case of corridor trip for the stability and risk of interaction b
Slide 35: Several challenges with integration of 7 GW of power electronics
Several challenges are foreseen with the integration of 7 GW of power electronics in BE coastal zone 1 Challenge I High concentration of PEs connected in one single point CE synchronous area and leads to new power system stability phenomena 2 Challenge II Forced active power oscillations observed on
Slide 36: Activities and studies for derisking the Belgian coastal projects
Several activities and studies are required for derisking the Belgium coastal projects from pre- design till real time operation Data Process definition and validation of data & Conformity models Methods & process for coordination of models for studies assessment & design/requirement and assessments
Slide 37: 4 main clarifications for the 1st tendering
4 main clarifications will be potentially defined in the technical requirement for 1st tendering of MOG 2 OWF 1 Forced oscillations: this phenomena must not lead to critical consequences for BE/EU system 2 Process for data sharing & model validation: need for process definition on data and model sha
Slide 38: Forced oscillations
Forced oscillations Fortunato Villella
Slide 39: 4 main clarifications for the 1st tendering
4 main clarifications will be potentially defined in the technical requirement for 1st tendering of MOG 2 OWF 1 Forced oscillations: this phenomena must not lead to critical consequences for BE/EU system Introduction today 2 Process for data sharing & model validation: need for process definition on
Slide 40: Forced oscillation is a mechanical phenomenon impacting the electrical system
Forced oscillation is a mechanical phenomena that can impact the electrical system External phenomena Mechanical consequences System consequences Vibration/movement impacts fatigue May lead to system stability issues that on the mechanical structures can trigger protection and disconnect OWF Aerodyn
Slide 41: Active damping impact and worsens interarea oscillations
Active damping impact and worsens interarea oscillations Passive damping Active damping (Side-to-Side) Wind direction Wind direction Wind direction Wind direction Absorbe motion with Creation of a torque on passive damping system generator to oppose motion Passive damping has no impact on electrical
Slide 42: Interarea oscillations can lead to critical consequences for EU system
Interarea oscillations can lead to critical consequences for EU system Interarea oscillation phenomena will increase through the years with system evolution (increased exchanges, reduced inertia, integration of renewables…) and an increase of probability of occurrence will happen. Several consequenc
Slide 43: Balancing and system integration
Balancing and system integration
Slide 44: Agenda
Agenda 1. General status of the study and planning (5’) 2. Projections of the offshore generation profiles (45’) Presented by external consultant Matti Koivisto of the Technical University of Denmark to which the simulation of future offshore generation profiles has been assigned to. 3. Methodology
Slide 45: General status of the study and planning
General status of the study and planning Kristof De Vos
Slide 46: Re-cap: scope of the update of the system integration study
Re-cap : scope of the update of the system integration study Impact assessment of Projections of offshore Impact on flexibility and exceptional conditions and LFC block configuration generation profiles reserve needs need for mitigation measures • Scope on : • Scope on : • Scope on : • Scope on : Up
Slide 47: Planning
FGOV – “De publicatie van de eerste oproep tot mededinging is voorzien in het vierde kwartaal van 2023” Planning Workshop 1 Workshop 2 : Workshop 3 Re-scoping the preliminary results preliminary results on study offshore generation system simulations and profiles mitigation measures TF TF TF April 1
Slide 48: Projections of the offshore generation profiles
Projections of the offshore generation profiles Presented by external consultant Matti Koivisto of the Technical University of Denmark to which the simulation of future offshore generation profiles has been assigned to.
Slide 49: 2022 study update
Elia MOG 2: Wind simulations by DTU Wind and Energy Systems 2022 study update Matti Koivisto (mkoi@dtu.dk) DTU Wind and Energy Systems 24 June, 2022, online 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 49
Slide 50: Agenda
Agenda • The applied methodology • Updates in the assumptions • Updates in the modelling • Update of model validation • Scenario results, with comparisons to the 2020 report 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 50
Slide 51: Methodology
Methodology 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 51
Slide 52: Correlations in renewable energy sources (CorRES)
Correlations in renewable energy sources (CorRES) • A time series simulation tool for variable renewable energy • Developed at DTU Wind Energy • Globally using reanalysis time series and microscale data1 • Sub-hourly simulation capabilities2,3 1J. P. Murcia, et al., “Validation of European-scale sim
Slide 53: CorRES: Overview
CorRES: Overview • Correlations in renewable energy sources (CorRES) • Tool to simulate wind and solar generation time series • Developed at DTU Wind over many years • Used for power and energy system studies • Large-scale runs (pan-European and beyond) • Can run 10000+ plants in one run • 35+ years
Slide 54: CorRES: The two key parts of the model
CorRES: The two key parts of the model Meteorological Conversion to data power generation VRE time series • ERA5 • Wakes using PyWake • ERA5-Land • Storm shutdown • Global Wind Atlas model (GWA) • PVLib for solar PV • Also New European • Turbine data Wind Atlas (NEWA), and more • Wind power plant (W
Slide 55: CorRES: Meteorological data
CorRES: Meteorological data • Weather reanalysis data • ERA5: 1982-2021 • Global • Also others, e.g., NEWA • Wind • Linkage to GWA high resolution wind data • Solar • ERA5-Land for higher resolution irradiance data • Simultaneous running of 10000+ plants • Aggregated presentation of results J. P. Mu
Slide 56: CorRES: Wind conversion to power generation
CorRES: Wind conversion to power generation • Wake losses • Wake-impacted plant-level power curves using PyWake • Also farm-to-farm wakes • Different turbine types • With unique power curves • Including storm shutdown behaviour • Hub heights can also be changed J. P. Murcia Leon et al., “Power Fluct
Slide 57: CorRES: High temporal resolution via stochastic simulation
CorRES: High temporal resolution via stochastic simulation • Up to 1-5 min resolution for wind • Simultaneous running of a few hundred plants (usually applied for offshore plants) Direct interpolation 10 min wind speed ramps in measured data (magenta) and in different stages of the CorRES simulation
Slide 58: CorRES use cases: VRE simulations for ENTSO-E
CorRES use cases: VRE simulations for ENTSO-E • Pan-European climate database (PECD): • Database of weather driven time series • Wind & solar done with CorRES • Hourly resolution, 35+ years • Update of PECD data in Spring 2021 • Including large range of wind technologies for scenario building needs
Slide 59: CorRES use cases: Modelling offshore wind in North Sea energy hubs
CorRES use cases: Modelling offshore wind in North Sea energy hubs • Contracted research for the North Sea Wind Power Hub (NSWPH) • NSWPH is a consortium of Energinet, Gasunie and TenneT • DTU Wind Energy supported the study of offshore energy hubs and their energy system impacts in 2021 • Simulatio
Slide 60: CorRES use cases: In power and energy system analyses
CorRES use cases: In power and energy system analyses CorRES Balmorel Scenarios • For example for studying: • Offshore energy hubs & meshed grids • Impact of sector coupling • Impacts on future VRE plant revenues J. Gea-Bermúdez et al., “Optimal generation and transmission development of the North S
Slide 61: Model assumptions
Model assumptions 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 61
Slide 62: Model assumptions
Model assumptions • Assumptions taken in the previous study are updated and were presented by Elia to stakeholders in Task Force of 01 April 2022 • Stakeholders were called to provide feedback before April 22, the latest • Inputs were received from turbine manufacturers, Belgian Offshore Platform an
Slide 63: Updates in the assumptions: Technology updates
Updates in the assumptions: Technology updates 2022 update • Bigger turbines (17 and 20 MW) Technology scenario • Larger rotors (installations before 2030) A B • Thus also higher hub heights Rated power (MW) 17 17 Rotor diameter (m) 219 262 Hub height (m) 140 165 Specific power (W/m2) 450 316 2020 r
Slide 64: Updates in the assumptions: Layout and installed GW
Updates in the assumptions: Layout and installed GW The map shows the full 5.8 GW scenario by 2030 (+ nearby Dutch plants): • 2.3 GW existing • 3.5 GW new installations Significantly higher than before Area Installed capacity (MW) Turbine capacity (MW) Area (km2) MW/km2 Kavel 1 (-> 3.0 GW) 700 17 46
Slide 65: Turbine-level power curve shapes
Turbine-level power curve shapes: Same as in the 2020 report Technology scenario A B Specific power (W/m2) 450 316 • Tech A and Tech B cover the range of specific powers expected towards 2030 • The “Deep” storm shutdown type aligns with the newest offshore wind power plants in Belgium 24 June 2022 D
Slide 66: Updates in the modelling
Updates in the modelling • Using newest meteorological reanalysis data • Using ERA5 reanalysis data • Gives high correlation to measured data1 • Used also in the 2021 PECD update for ENTSO-E • Data available until the end of 2021 • Updated wake modelling • Using newest models in the PyWake tool from
Slide 67: Model validation
Model validation • Validation is done using measured data of Belgian offshore wind power generation • And also measured wind speeds from the turbines • Validation is important to gain trust to the model • It compares the simulated wind speed and generation time series to measurements • The same mode
Slide 68: Update of model validation: Two cases studied
Update of model validation: Two cases studied 0.9 GW: Until around 2019 2.3 GW: From approx. 2020 onwards 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 68
Slide 69: Update of model validation: 0.9 GW case (877 MW)
Capacity Standard factor deviation Update of model validation: Measured 0.382 0.343 0.9 GW case (877 MW) Simulated 0.405 0.350 Simulated 0.385 (5% unavailability) • Validation data from around mid- Simulated 0.416 0.351 (2020 report)* 2017 until 2019 *Note that the simulated time period is not ident
Slide 70: Update of model validation: 0.9 GW case (877 MW)
Update of model validation: 2020 report 0.9 GW case (877 MW) • Modelling of wind speed and generation • Good fit to measured data • Including high wind events 2022 update Slightly better coverage of very high wind speeds compared to the 2020 report 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 70
Slide 71: Update of model validation: 0.9 GW case (877 MW)
Update of model validation: 2020 report 0.9 GW case (877 MW) simulated: SD=0.135 • Simulations in line with the measured forecast errors • Slightly better match to 2020 report measurements compared to the simulated: SD=0.112 2020 report 2020 report simulated: SD=0.71 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2
Slide 72: Update of model validation: 0.9 GW case (877 MW)
Update of model validation: 0.9 GW case (877 MW) • Correlation to measured data: • Correlation between measured and simulated data: 0.94 » Fleet-level time series » 5 min resolution • Higher than in the 2020 report (where it was < 0.9) » Due to the updated meteorological data 24 June 2022 DTU Wind E
Slide 73: Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case
Update of model validation: Example plant 2.3 GW case • Data cleaning applied • Lower generation following voluntary curtailment is filtered by removing periods where positive imbalance price is below -110 €/ MWh • Or if down regulation reported • Otherwise, same as in the 2020 report • Without filt
Slide 74: Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case
Update of model validation: Example plant 2.3 GW case • Data cleaning applied • Lower generation following voluntary curtailment is filtered by removing periods where positive imbalance price is below -110 €/ MWh • Or if down regulation reported • Otherwise, same as in the 2020 report • With filteri
Slide 75: Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case
Capacity Standard Update of model validation: factor deviation Measured 0.348 0.339 2.3 GW case Simulated 0.394 0.357 • Validation data from Dec 2020 Simulated 0.375 (5% unavailability) until the end of 2021 • Capacity factors and generation distribution: • Simulated capacity factor (CF) somewhat hi
Slide 76: Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case
Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case • Ramp distributions • 5 min ramps well modelled mean SD min Prct 0.1 Prct 1 Prct 5 Prct 95 Prct 99 Prct 99.9 max Measured 0.000 0.011 -0.154 -0.062 -0.031 -0.016 0.016 0.032 0.064 0.156 Simulated 0.000 0.011 -0.136 -0.057 -0.032 -0.018 0.018 0.033 0.058 0.140
Slide 77: Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case
Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case • Ramp distributions • 15 min ramps well modelled • Based on 5 min resolution data mean SD min Prct 0.1 Prct 1 Prct 5 Prct 95 Prct 99 Prct 99.9 max Measured 0.000 0.027 -0.338 -0.153 -0.080 -0.040 0.042 0.083 0.162 0.311 Simulated 0.000 0.028 -0.365 -0.141 -0.
Slide 78: Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case
Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case • Ramp distributions • 1 h ramps well modelled • Based on 5 min resolution data mean SD min Prct 0.1 Prct 1 Prct 5 Prct 95 Prct 99 Prct 99.9 max Measured -0.001 0.069 -0.686 -0.384 -0.205 -0.107 0.110 0.208 0.387 0.629 Simulated 0.000 0.077 -0.839 -0.405 -0.21
Slide 79: Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case
Update of model validation: 2.3 GW case • Modelling of wind speed and generation • Good fit to measured data • Including high wind events 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 79
Slide 80: Conclusion on model validation
Conclusion on model validation – The model is validated by means of a comparison of simulated generation and prediction profiles with observed generation and prediction profiles for the existing parks – A filtering of negative price periods was implemented to better compare the simulated time series
Slide 81: Overview of the scenario results
Overview of the scenario results 1. Capacity factors and generation distributions 2. Extreme ramp events 3. Storm events and related ramps 4. Forecast errors • Results are statistics over the whole 40-year simulation period • From1982 to 2021, on 5 min resolution 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 202
Slide 82: Results: Capacity factor (CF) and standard deviation (SD)
Results: Capacity factor (CF) and standard deviation (SD) 2022 update 2020 report CF SD 25 m/s 0.436 0.362 Tech A Moderate 0.437 0.363 5.8 GW Deep 0.438 0.363 25 m/s 0.472 0.369 Tech B Moderate 0.474 0.370 Deep 0.475 0.370 Overall, similar results compared to the 4.4 GW scenarios in the 2020 report
Slide 83: Results: 5 min ramps (wind speed < 20 m/s)
Results: 5 min ramps (#days per year, wind speed < 20 m/s) 2022 update: 4.4 GW scenario 2020 report Negative ramp (GW) Positive ramp (GW) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 25 m/s 0.1 0.8 7.9 8.9 0.9 0.1 Tech A Moderate 0.6 7.7 8.7 0.8 4.4 GW Deep 0.6 7.7 8.6 0.7
Slide 84: Results: 1 h ramps (wind speed < 20 m/s)
Results: 1 h ramps (#days per year, wind speed < 20 m/s) 2022 update: 4.4 GW scenario 2020 report Negative ramp (GW) Positive ramp (GW) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 25 m/s 0.0 0.1 1.4 11 75 243 296 294 241 81 15 2.8 0.7 0.1 Tech A Moderate 0.0 0.1 1.4 11 75
Slide 85: Results: Extreme storm events
Results: Extreme storm events 2020 report 2022 update • The Jan 25 1990 peak wind speed is estimated higher in the 2022 update • Generally, peak wind speeds are similar than in the 2020 report 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 85
Slide 86: Results: The whole fleet can be in storm shutdown
Results: The whole fleet can be in storm shutdown • Similar result as in the 2020 report • In most cases, the “Deep” shutdown technology shows the lowest negative ramps • Note about the up ramps after storm: • Assumed similar for all shutdown technologies • But can be controlled to be lower 24 June
Slide 87: Results: The whole fleet can be in storm shutdown
Results: The whole fleet can be in storm shutdown • The likelihoods of the whole fleet being in complete storm shutdown are similar for the 5.8 GW scenario (shown above) compared to the 4.4 GW scenario in the 2020 report 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 87
Slide 88: Results: 5 min ramps (wind speed > 20 m/s)
Results: 5 min ramps (#days per year, wind speed > 20 m/s) 2022 update: 4.4 GW scenario 2020 report Negative ramp (GW) Positive ramp (GW) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 25 m/s 0.2 2.2 5.4 5.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 Tech A Moderate 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.4 GW Deep
Slide 89: Results: 1 h ramps (wind speed > 20 m/s)
Results: 1 h ramps (#days per year, wind speed > 20 m/s) 2022 update: 4.4 GW scenario 2020 report Negative ramp (GW) Positive ramp (GW) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 25 m/s 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.8 8.9 15 17 17 15 10 5.4 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 Tech A Moderate 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.
Slide 90: Results: Day-ahead forecast errors
Results: Day-ahead forecast errors 2022 update 2020 report Compared to 0.9 GW Prct Prct Prct Prct Mean SD SD 0.001 0.01 99.99 99.999 25 m/s -0.003 0.113 -0.731 -0.608 0.647 0.745 88% Tech A Moderate -0.003 0.112 -0.763 -0.639 0.636 0.763 87% 5.8 GW Deep -0.003 0.111 -0.725 -0.589 0.584 0.757 87% 25
Slide 91: Conclusions (and compared to the 2020 study)
Conclusions (and compared to the 2020 study) • Similar capacity factors and standard deviation when expressed p.u. • Capacity factors slightly lower due to increased installations densities • Similar ramping characteristics as in the 2020 report but increasing due to larger installed capacity • When
Slide 92: Extra slides
Extra slides 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 92
Slide 93: Results: CFs of the new sites & wake losses
Results: CFs of the new sites & wake losses 2022 update Report “LCOE offshore wind in the Princess Elisabeth zone”, 3E, Sep 2021 Wake & CF (new sites, blockage 100% losses availability) (3.5 GW new installations) 25 m/s 11.3% 0.443 Tech A Moderate 11.2% 0.445 5.8 GW Deep 11.2% 0.446 25 m/s 12.0% 0.5
Slide 94: Update of model validation: Correlation to measured data
Update of model validation: Correlation to measured data Scenario 2.3 GW: • Correlation between measured and simulated data: 0.95 • Fleet-level time series • 5 min resolution 24 June 2022 DTU Wind Elia MOG 2 2022 update 94
Slide 95: Results: 1 h ramps (#days per year)
Results: 1 h ramps (#days per year) 2022 update: 4.4 GW scenario 2020 report Negative ramp (GW) Positive ramp (GW) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 25 m/s 0.2 0.9 3.8 16 84 257 313 311 256 91 20 6.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 Tech A Moderate 0.1 0.6 2.9 14 82 255 312 310 254
Slide 96: Results: 5 min ramps (#days per year, all wind speeds)
Results: 5 min ramps (#days per year, all wind speeds) 2022 update: 4.4 GW scenario 2020 report Negative ramp (GW) Positive ramp (GW) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 25 m/s 0.3 3.0 13 14 2.9 0.5 0.0 Tech A Moderate 0.1 1.7 11 12 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.4 GW Deep 0.7 8 1
Slide 97: Is it realistic that the complete fleet is in storm shutdown?
Is it realistic that we see the complete fleet in storm shutdown? • Happened for the 2.3 GW scenario during storm Eunice: Event description – Storm Eunice (18-19 Feb. 2022) 1 2 1 1. Wind power generation faced a full cut-out in about 5 hours. The full cut out was predicted by Elia’s forecast tool. 2
Slide 98: Methodology for impact assessment: normal conditions
Methodology for the impact assessment on balancing and system integration during A. Normal conditions : impact on reserve capacity needs Presented by Kristof De Vos
Slide 99: Methodology to determine impact on Elia's reserve needs
Methodology to determine impact on Elia’s reserve needs A. Analyze future offshore Scenario’s on • Ability of BRPs to balance forecast errors of additional RES installed generation future BRP • LFC block imbalance quality profiles ability to balance • Forecast tool improvements portfolios B. Determi
Slide 100: Potential impact of bidding zones
Potential impact of bidding zones Under current European legislation, the creation of a separate Offshore LFC Area within the Elia LFC block seems at this point the best way forward (cf. next presentation) •Seems to facilitate a joint dimensioning, minimizing reserve capacity needs for both areas •S
Slide 101: Methodology for impact assessment: exceptional conditions
Methodology for the impact assessment on balancing and system integration during B. Exceptional conditions : impact of storms and ramps on system operation Presented by Aymen Chaouachi
Slide 102: Overview, scope and context
Overview, scope and context Context : • Change of OWF installed capacity from 4.4 GW to 5.8 GW • Future evolutions Energy Island, new connections and offshore bidding zones Objective : • Update MOG 2 System Study: Impact and effectiveness of mitigation measures Scope: • Update simulation analysis co
Slide 103: Overview on impact assessment
Overview on impact assessment • Select representative events to cover the worst cases of A. Analyze • extreme up and down ramp events future offshore generation • storm events profiles • Methodology to evaluate impact on real-time balancing operations B. Determine Define System assumptions : consequ
Slide 104: Methodology
Methodology Simulation Model Slow flexibility Ramping Flexibility Imbalance netting aFRR Reserved aFRR Non-Reserved Other Fast Flexibility Historical analysis of mFRR Reserved offshore BRP during ramps & storm events mFRR Sharing (fixed) 2018-2021 mFRR Non- Reserved Assumption 1: Assumption 2; FRR v
Slide 105: Methodology key updates
Methodology key updates aFRR controller is tuned to Study is based on system imbalances and larger aFRR activation volumes area control errors resulting from offshore wind (compensated by assumptions on available flexibility) 5 min FAT for all aFRR reserves activation, No fundamental impact
Slide 106: Thank you
lia Thank you