Global Sukuk UCITS ETF Accum -CH- GBP · LSE:HSKG
Global Sukuk UCITS ETF Accum -CH- GBP — HSBC Asset Management — 2026 investment outlook slide pack
43 slides from Global Sukuk UCITS ETF Accum -CH- GBP's investor presentation, November 2025
Slide 1: Role Reversal
Role’Reversal For Professional Clients only and should not be distributed to or relied upon by Retail Clients. Marketing Communication. This document provides a high level overview of the recent economic environment. It is for marketing purposes and does not constitute investment research, investmen
Slide 2: Key themes
Key themes Role Reversal Broadening Out Diversify the Diversifiers Source: HSBC Asset Manager nly. PUBLIC
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Slide 4: Market performance in 2025
Market performance in 2025 70% | USD Total Return 60% ™ 2025 range @ 2025 performance 50% 40% 30% & % ey FIXED INCOME EQUITIES ALTERNATIVES Source: HSBC Asset Management, Bloomberg, 10 November 2025. Past performance does not predict future returns. This information shouldn't be considered as a reco
Slide 5: Policy uncertainty extreme, but markets calm
Policy uncertainty extreme, but markets calm sesees ° US policy uncertainty index (black) and VIX volatility (red) Index Percentage Points 600 COovID 90 PANDEMIC LIBERATION DAY 80 500 70 US Economic Policy Uncertainty, hs 400 60 EURO CRISIS soo US/CHINA °° TARIFFS 40 200 30 20 100 10 2010 2011 2012
Slide 6: Global scenario
Global scenario US Eurozone UK Japan China India Growth 6.7% 6.5% = 2025f | | | | 2026 — Inflation m2025f 27% 27% 2.5% 12m ahead 3.00-3.50% 1,50-2.00% 3.25-3.75% 0.75-1.25% 1.2-1.4% * 5.00-5.50% policy rate (HSBC AM) 2026 Fiscal impulse Neutral Neutral Drag Moderate boost Moderate boost Neutral Any
Slide 7: Tech-investment boost
Tech-investment boost Start of a multi-year investment boom? 1 9° Contributions to GDP q/a AR GDP growth (pp) Computers & Peripheral Equipment 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Software -0.25 -0.50 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2
Slide 8: Could AI create “super exponential growth”?
Could Al create “super exponential growth” ? Economists have different views on how Al will boost productivity 4.9% Points boost of Al to growth over a 10-year horizon 3.5 3.0 25 Al ESTIMATED ANNUAL GROWTH BOOST 2.0 15 1.0 - a so = Baily, Brynjolfson, and McKinsey (2023, Global) Goldman Sachs (2023,
Slide 9: Outside of tech, a K-shaped economy
Outside of tech, a K-shaped economy Slower employment and wage moderation means less support for consumer spending , LABOUR MARKET : COOLING ? ... Atlanta Fed median wage growth (% yiy, 3mma) ADP private payrolls (% y/y) --OR CRACKING ? 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202
Slide 10: But the “multi polar” world comes with inflation risks
But the “multi polar” world comes with inflation risks Global West Global East EUROPE UNITED STATES CHINA JAPAN Gcc INDIA MEXIGD AFRICA ASEAN BRAZIL Global South ‘The informatior Source: HSBC the UAE. The is for illustrative purpose only. nt, November 2025. The Global South refers to the count bove
Slide 11: A shallow rate cutting cycle
A shallow rate cutting cycle " Central bank rates and forecasts HSBC AM Scenario Eurozone ECB, lhs Japan BoJ, rhs Past performance does not predict future returns. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Source: Macrobond, Bloomberg, HSBC A
Slide 12: EM central banks have led the Fed in 2025
EM central banks have led the Fed in 2025 ad Average EM policy rate versus the Fed funds target rate Percent Percent 9.0 6 85 5 8.0 75 7.0 3 65 EM weighted average policy rate, IF 6.0 2 55 5.0 1 Fed funds target rate, rhs 45 0 4.0 35 a Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
Slide 13: China deflation points to “policy put”
China deflation points to “policy put” Leeees my GDP deflator shows China’s reflation challenge continues... % annual rate 25 20 18 CHINA GDP DEFLATOR 10 5 7+ quarters of TN deflation 0 / 1 quarter of 7 quarters Ra of 2 quarters of 2 quarters of defi 5 deflation deflation deflation leflation 1993 19
Slide 14: An era of fiscal policy dominance
An era of fiscal policy dominance 14 China's Five-Year Plan 2026-2030 Source: HSBC Asset Management, November 2025. For illustrative purposes only. Rebalancing towards consumption ® Capital account & RMB liberalisation PUBLIC Tech innovation, centred on Al NY“ AN Anti-involution to build a “unified
Slide 15: Macro scenarios
Macro scenarios © Fi Source: HSBC Asset Mar Driving forces Growth Inflation Monetary} Policy China jement, November 2 cs CRACKS WIDEN Restrictive policy and unbalanced growth mean labour market cracks Sharp slowdown as households retrench and profits disappoint Uncomfortably high inflation but reces
Slide 16: Market scenarios
Market scenarios AS Stocks Fixed income EM USD Top bets cs CRACKS WIDEN Historic SPX bear market. Cyclicals most vulnerable. VIX spike Curve steepens as longer-dated yields sticky. Credit spreads widen EMs hit amid weaker global growth and trade challenges USD struggles to rally amid Fed cuts and as
Slide 17: Broadening Out
Broadening Out
Slide 18: US tech versus the rest
US tech versus the rest 18 In 2000 Europe & US led the way, today it’s solely US. Will Asia be next? 25% Tech & Communication Services Sector weight as % of global equities (USD) US Al (23% of World) 20 15 10 World ex-US Al (8% of World) EMAI (2.7% of World) 0 1995, 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Pas
Slide 19: Global profits growth is coming together
Global profits growth is coming together Global EPS growth in 2025 and 2026 (IBES consensus forecast) 35% 50%+ 2025 2026 litidaalactt 2024 Nasdaq India USA EM Asia ex Japan ACW DM China UK Brazil Japan Europe ex UK 30 25 20 10 a Nas Past performance does not predict future returns. Note: asda IBES p
Slide 20: Valuation gaps remain wide
Valuation gaps remain wide 20 Regional PE valuation gaps 20 % Regional PE Gap to US across 30Y 15Y and Current gap periods ( SCI) 10 Average 30Y Average 15Y Current Gap 0 : | q -20 -50 India EM Japan UK Germany China Europe Ex UK Spain Asia ex Japan Latin America Brazil Mexico Past performance does
Slide 21: EM has been “lucky”, benefitting from weaker dollar
EM has been “lucky”, benefitting from weaker dollar 2 seeseee * Weaker dollar (black) correlates with strong EM stocks (red) MSCI EM relative Dollar index to DM (inverted) 60 DOLLAR EXPENSIVE 180 US EXCEPTIONALISM 70 160 FADING Trade weighted dollar, rhs 80 140 120 90 100 100 > 80 EM UNDERPERFORMED
Slide 22: But EMs also “good”, and more macro-resilient
But EMs also “good”, and more macro-resilient 22 EM response to global risk-off shocks mpre-GFC 03 1% 3 1% 0.2 2 0.4 1 0.0 0 01 A 0.2 2 Portfolio outfows (percent of initial GDP) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Source: IMF, HSBC Asset Management, October 2025 Exch
Slide 23: EM growth premium is rising
EM growth premium is rising 23 EM-DM relative growth and stock market performance Index, 2003=100 EM-DM growth, % 250 6 225 EM/DM stock 5 market index, Ihs 200 4 EM less DM GDP growth (+IMF 175 forecast), lagged 4 quarters, rhs 3 150 ee 2 125 1 100 75 ° 50 1 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2
Slide 24: EMs are now LESS volatile than DMs
EMs are now LESS volatile than DMs 24 Bond market total return volatility (90 day rolling measure) % 1.2 11 1.0 09 08 07 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 EM VOL > DM VOL EM VOL < DM VOL DM bonds (JPM GBI Global Index) EM local bonds (JPM GBI-EM Index) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015, 2016 2017 notice. Any for rojec
Slide 25: Diversify the Diversifiers
Diversify the Diversifiers
Slide 26: Where are the reliable safe havens?
Where are the reliable safe havens? 26 Dollar is usually supposed to do well on US outperformance and safe-haven demand TROLL AR SMILE RIGHT TAIL OF DOLLAR SMILE leak global growtl Uneven global growth Safe-haven demand US outperforms => Strong USD => Strong USD 2008 crisis, March 2020 1990s, 2011-2
Slide 27: Long bond yields usually fall after rate cuts
Long bond yields usually fall after rate cuts 27 Difference in 30-year Treasury yield from time of first Fed cut 1.50 Difference in 30yr yield from time of first Fed cut (pp!* 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 St.dev. range = ——Currentcycle © ——Average -1,00 (* Covers period since 1989) -1.50 -300 -250 -200 -150
Slide 28: The stock bond correlation has gone positive
The stock bond correlation has gone positive 28 Behaviour of US Treasuries and dollar forces investors to reconsider old assumptions 1.00 c rolling 18-month S&P 500/US 10y correlation Vz XN -1.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Slide 29: Credit spreads have been low
Credit spreads have been low 29 US Credit spreads may look too low because term premia too high % 4.0| USIG spreads versus Treasuries and interest-rate swaps 3.5 3.0 25 2.0 15 1.0 05 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Source: Bloomberg, Macrob
Slide 30: Hedge fund allocation as a bond alternative?
Hedge fund allocation as a bond alternative? Hedge funds as a diversification option for investors 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Macro hedge fund correlation with 60/40 portfolio 1995-2025 Post tech bubble recession , , Hy" | Pandemic nh recession ¥ Vv t ] y \ j T Tech bubble a \ { GFC Euro-crisis Persistent infl
Slide 31: Hiding in the hedges
Hiding in the hedges 31 Hedge funds versus 60/40 portfolio! 25 Annualised returns, % mHedge Funds US Equity Global Macro mEvent Driven = Multi-Strategy 20 60/40 Portfolio 15 10 1990s* 2000s 2010s 2020s* Past performance does not predict future returns. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management, “Data
Slide 32: Private credit as a strong volatility dampener
Private credit as a strong volatility dampener 32 Drawdowns on public vs private credit during major sell-offs GFC Covid Inflation Shock (2022) Max drawdown’ return, % MDirect Lending sm Leveraged Loans US High Yield MUS Investment Grade , 10 -25 -30 -35 Source: HSBC Asset Management, Bloomberg, Cli
Slide 33: Selective opportunities in credits
Selective opportunities in credits 33 Asia credits and private credits stand out for “all in yields” Historic returns 12 | % Pre-tax yields from Fl assets versus historic stock market returns for stocks over 1 last 20 years_/ 10 wTotal Return Yield 1 ] I 4 ----d 8 I I I 6 I I I 4 I I I I 2 I I I ° I
Slide 34: HSBC AM long term capital market assumptions
HSBC AM long term capital market assumptions 34 ad Capital Market Line (10-year return expectations in USD) 15 @ar Sharpe Ratio @ Bonds 0.45 @ creait LONG RUN EXPECTED eats @ Ewity RETURN ASSUMPTIONS Global PE 0.36 a @ Portfolio EM Equity 3 10 Direct Lending Sharpes tata = Axd Equity 0.25 o Global L
Slide 35: Appendix
Appendix
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Slide 37: Summary
37 Summary Macro Outlook Policy Outlook * Tariffs and policy uncertainty are headwinds to US activity, but Al- ¢ Following October's rate cut further easing is likely to be gradual as the US related capex spending is providing support. Jobs growth is likely to remain weak in the near term due to sup
Slide 38: Events to look out for in 2026
Events to look out for in 2026 38 As the capstone of the USA This summit will centre Global finance ministers, central APEC leaders are expected to around key discussions on bankers, and private capital meet in Shenzhen, with host year, the leaders’ meeting economic stability, convene to revise fore
Slide 39: Important Information
Important Information
Slide 40: Important Information
Important Information 40 . For Professional Clients and intermediaries within countries and territories set out below; and for Institutional Investors and Financial Advisors in the US. This document should not be distributed to or relied upon by Retail clients/investors. The value of investments and
Slide 41: Important Information
Important Information a . . + in Bermuda by HSBC Global Asset Management (Bermuda) Limited, of 37 Front Street, Hamilton, Bermuda which is licensed to conduct investment business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority; + in Chile: Operations by HSBC's headquarters or other offices of this bank located ab
Slide 42: Important Information
Important Information 42 . # In Switzerland by HSBC Global Asset Management (Switzerland) AG. This document is intended for professional investor use only. For opting in and opting out according to FinSA, please refer to our website; if you wish to change your client categorization, please inform us
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HSBC Asset Management — 2026 investment outlook slide pack on 6ix