Totalenergies Se · EURONEXT:TTE
Totalenergies — Investor Presentation (November 2024)
24 slides from Totalenergies's investor presentation, Nov 4, 2024
Slide 1: TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024
TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024 November 4th, 2024 Rivesaltes, France
Slide 2: Energy access is essential to human development
Energy access is essential to human development UN Human Development Index 1,0 Asia OECD North America Europe The UN Human Development Index 0,9 Middle East (HDI) measures well-being in terms of health, education and living standards (GDP) Latin Central Asia 0,8 America HDI increases dramatically wi
Slide 3: Each country will follow a different energy transition path
Each country will follow a different energy transition path USA 280 In 2022 France 133 Brazil 59 166 43 3,7 116 Angola 19 Vietnam 43 19 World 1,4 1,4 79 1,4 average 17 50 10 30 7 Population Primary energy GDP per capita NZ50* China India Global South (Bn) demand per capita (k$/capita) (GJ/capita) Ev
Slide 4: What to expect in the next 30 years?
What to expect in the next 30 years? A growing population aspiring to higher living standards in the Global South requires more energy Population GDP Primary energy demand in countries with Bn of people Trillion $2015 less than 70 GJ/cap today, PJ/d 9.7 Bn 1 400 10 350 1200 9 300 CAGR 2022-50 : 1 20
Slide 5: Evolution of global energy indicators since 2000
Evolution of global energy indicators since 2000 Primary Energy demand grows slower than GDP; CO2 emissions start to decouple Evolution of a selection of indicators Compound Annual Growth 2000=100 Rate (CAGR) 2000-2023 • Electricity demand grows as fast as GDP 210 GDP 3,2% 200 Electricity demand 3,1
Slide 6: Energy demand growth primarily driven by improved living standards
Energy demand growth primarily driven by improved living standards + xx.x % : CAGR over 2000-2022 Total Primary Energy Demand (TPED) and emissions growth by region Unabated fossil PJ/d Non-fossil NZ50 China India Global South countries* 2000 82% 650 80% 130 67% 50 79% 320 Population +0,6% +0,5% +1,3
Slide 7: The USA Shale Revolution has transformed the energy landscape in the US and worldwide
The USA Shale Revolution has transformed the energy landscape in the US and worldwide Liquids* supply by region – 2010 vs 2023 LNG exports by region – 2010 vs 2023 Fuels shares and emissions of the US electricity Mb/d, % of total supply Mtpa, % of total supply mix, % of fuel (left) and carbon intens
Slide 8: Existing technologies, if deployed fully, could halve energy-related GHG emissions
Existing technologies, if deployed fully, could halve energy-related GHG emissions Global anthropogenic GHG emissions 2022 Available technologies to reduce GHG GtCO2e emissions and their potential impact 0 5 10 15 Renewables combined with Flexible Gas to Electricity generation* 74% 22% 14 displace c
Slide 9: Three possible scenarios to 2050
Three possible scenarios to 2050 Trends Momentum Rupture Emissions (Gt CO2*) Emissions (Gt CO2*) Emissions (Gt CO2*) 40 Primary energy: +0.4% / year 40 +0.3% / year 40 +0.1% / year 35 over 2022-2050 35 35 30 -1.1% / year 30 30 Global South -1.7% / year 25 25 25 India 20 20 20 15 China 15 15 -5.1% /
Slide 10: Trends
Trends If the world remains on current energy trajectory, it will fall short of Paris objectives World Primary Energy Demand (TPED, projection) Share of electricity in final consumption PJ/d % 2022 2030 2050 1940 2000 1880 Other renewable energies 15% 17% 24% 1730 5% 2% 15% Solar & wind power 2% 2%
Slide 11: Momentum
Momentum NZ50 countries step up their efforts to achieve their objectives, but offer limited support to the Global South World Primary Energy Demand (TPED, projection) Share of electricity in final consumption PJ/d % 1940 2022 2030 2050 2000 1870 1900 Other renewable energies 15% 17% 24% 1730 6% 15%
Slide 12: Rupture
Rupture Global South is supported and included in the race to Net Zero World Primary Energy Demand (TPED, projection) Share of electricity in final consumption PJ/d % 2022 2030 2050 2000 1900 15% 19% 37% 1820 Other renewable 1730 1730 energies Global South 7% 2% 3% 19% Solar & wind power 10% 10% 3%
Slide 13: From Trends to Momentum and Rupture
From Trends to Momentum and Rupture All decarbonization levers are pushed further to remain well-below 2°C Trends 2050 Momentum 2050 Rupture 2050 Strong electrification of end-use ~30% of final demand ~35% ~40% Deep decarbonization of 24 500 TWh* 27 500 TWh* 35 000 TWh* electricity grid (~50% of pow
Slide 14: Green electrification is the core of the energy transition
Green electrification is the core of the energy transition It reduces emissions and also losses in the energy system Primary energy breakdown across scenarios PJ/d 2000 1940 1900 1730 1730 29% 30% Energy production & 31% transformation 32% Primary energy losses demand Substituting renewables and gas
Slide 15: Energy systems inertia
Energy systems inertia Transforming energy systems takes decades as assets are long-lived Light Vehicles Fleet & Sales share evolution per technology Capacity evolution of existing coal power plants* %, in Europe GW ICE Ban in 2035 2500 100% 100% 2000 75% 75% 1500 50% 50% 1000 25% 25% 500 0% 0% 0 20
Slide 16: From Trends to Momentum and Rupture: Phase 1 technologies
Technology From Trends to Momentum and Rupture Top priority is to deploy globally “low-hanging fruit” technologies Higher Impact *** (GtCO2) Phase 1: 4 GtCO2 deploy now Residential heat pumps • These technologies are already Abatement costs * ($/tCO2) mature and manufactured at scale Clean cooking •
Slide 17: Decarbonation technologies deployed following cost and technology merit curve
Technology From Trends to Momentum and Rupture Decarbonation technologies should be deployed globally following cost and technology merit curve E-fuel Low carbon H₂ in Direct Higher Reduced Iron (DRI) and combustion Phase 2: test now, deploy post 2030 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles - Abatement costs *
Slide 18: Two examples of global deployment of low hanging fruits
Technology Two examples of global deployment of “low hanging fruits” Significant acceleration in India and Global South to move from Trends to Rupture Light Vehicles ZEV* Sales Wind and solar ** installed capacity M units GW % ZEV* Sales % wind and 9% 41% 59% 23% 45% 48% solar** in Worldwide electri
Slide 19: A few disruptive technologies could facilitate the transition
Technology From Trends to Momentum and Rupture A few disruptive technologies could facilitate the transition High impact Nuclear fusion Direct CO2 to CO2eq emission impact chemicals Quantum Deep technologies geothermal **** energy Control Electro- algorithms & chemical AI for smart DOC** grid DAC* V
Slide 20: The infrastructure bottleneck
The infrastructure bottleneck US and Europe electricity transmission grid examples Grid connection queues as of Jan. 2024* US lines of 345+ kV lines added** Share of generation curtailed in 2022-23* Infrastructure GW Miles % Onshore wind MISO Offshore wind 4500 15% ERCOT Onshore wind Solar PJM Solar
Slide 21: Significant investment required
Significant investment required Annual energy system investment* (Rupture scenario) Trillion $2023 per year 4 3,2 • Annual investment in energy systems 3 appears manageable 2,4 T$ on average 2,4 1,2 Electricity Networks Investment 2,1 2 1,8 0,7 • However, total investment, including 0,5 0,3 BESS & E
Slide 22: From Trends to Rupture: which priorities?
From Trends to Rupture : which priorities ? Cost-effective decarbonation technologies are available; their deployment needs to be scaled up Priority must be given to the large-scale deployment of existing, competitive decarbonization technologies - Facilitate the substitution of fossil fuels by elec
Slide 23: Main messages
Main messages 1. Reliable and affordable energy access is essential to Human Development, and yet remains widely unequal across countries. 2. Over the last 20 years, a. the energy transition has started globally b. most of the energy demand growth was driven by increasing living standards c. the US
Slide 24: Disclaimer and copyright reservation
Disclaimer and copyright reservation Definition - TotalEnergies / Company The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly holds an interest are separate and independent legal entities. The terms "TotalEnergies", "TotalEnergies company" and "Company" used in this document are used to re
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