Slide 1: Presentation for Investors April 2002
Presentation for Investors 24 April 2002
Slide 2: Contents
Contents l Nordea Page 3 l Initiatives and market trends Page 17 l Key figures and trends Page 25 l Business areas Page 42 l Balance sheet Page 81 l Asset quality Page 89 l Economic capital Page 106 l Appendix Page 110 2
Slide 3: Nordea
Nordea
Slide 4: 'Making it possible' is our mission
’Making it possible’ is our mission By providing a broad set of seamless and easily accessible financial solutions and competitive advisory services, Nordea helps customers where we operate to reach their objectives. 4
Slide 5: Our vision
Our vision We will be valued as the leading financial services group in the Nordic and Baltic financial markets with a substantial growth potential. We will be number one or number two or show superior profitable growth in every market and product area in which we choose to compete. We will have the
Slide 6: Strategic choices
Strategic choices l Universal banking with bancassurance l Customer orientation l Multichannel distribution l Nordic and local l Electronic and personal 6
Slide 7: Strategic direction
Strategic direction Deliver total shareholder value in line with the top five of our peer group Establish a stable and Ensure Work actively to optimise broadly based growth of operational excellence the use of capital and risk revenue by proactive in all processes taking thereby lowering cost offeri
Slide 8: Growth of revenue
Growth of revenue l Increase sales in all business areas – Growth by share of wallet of existing customers in our home markets and significantly enhance position in Sweden – Growth by market share in our emerging markets l Increase cross-selling l Implement Nordic business model for personal and cor
Slide 9: Excellence in operations
Excellence in operations l Increase focus on cost efficiency throughout the Group l Start second wave of integration process to further increase benefits from scale and size l Continue development of innovative e-service facilities for personal as well as corporate and institutional customers l Inte
Slide 10: Second wave of integration
Second wave of integration l Group wide integration program l Harvesting the full benefit of working cross border as an integrated group l Creating additional synergies in line with merger synergies within 3 years l Investments will be expensed on a running basis l Expenses related to three projects
Slide 11: Optimal use of capital and balanced risk taking
Optimal use of capital and balanced risk taking l Roll out of economic capital framework throughout the Group l Implement Group legal structure l Further develop credit scoring models l Reduce ownership in General Insurance 11
Slide 12: Financial targets
Financial targets Key performance indicator Q1/02 2001 Target Total shareholder return,% 6.3 -19.8 In the top five of our peer group Dividend pay-out ratio,% 44 1) > 40 % of net profit Return on equity,% 8.9 2) 13.8 > Euro risk free interest rate +8% Assets under management growth,% 2% 0 20 % p.a. C
Slide 13: Top European banks by market cap
Top 25 European banks by market cap HSBC RBOS UBS LLOYDS TSB BARCLAYS BNP PARIBAS CREDIT SUISSE HBOS SANTANDER DEUTSCHE BANK BBVA ABN AMRO SOCIETE GENERALE UNICREDITO INTESA BCI HYPO VEREINSBANK DEXIA NORDEA SAN PAOLO IMI DANSKE BANK BANK OF IRELAND KBC ALLIED IRISH BANKS SHB BCP 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Slide 14: Strong distribution network throughout the Nordic and Baltic Sea region
Strong distribution network throughout the Nordic and Baltic Sea region Finland Branch offices 444 Personnel 11,600 Sweden Branch offices 270 Helsinki Personnel 9,500 Bergen Stockholm St Petersburg Norway Oslo Tallinn Tartu Branch offices 149 Copenhagen Gdynia Riga Personnel 4,300 Moscow Hamburg Gda
Slide 15: Large customer base with high penetration in net banking
Large customer base with high penetration in net banking Baltic Sea Total DK FI NO SE Region Retail banking customers (1,000) Personal customers 1,700 3,000 500 4,2001) 60 9,500 Corporate customers 80 340 60 460 10 950 Large Nordic corporate 140 150 150 100 - 550 customers 2) Insurance customers (1,
Slide 16: Strong positions in most Nordic markets
Strong positions in most Nordic markets Corporate and Asset Management & General Retail Banking Institutional Banking Life Insurance Customer lending, Corporate Equity dealing Investment Life and Premiums customer deposit and Banking funds pensions mortgage volumes premiums Denmark 2 Tight 1 2 2 2 1
Slide 17: Initiatives and market trends
Initiatives and market trends
Slide 18: Stable underlying development
Stable underlying development l Total income up 3% compared to fourth quarter, total expenses were unchanged l Excluding Postgirot Bank expenses decreased by 4% l Underlying loan losses considerably reduced l Profit excluding investment earnings up 4% to EUR 409m l Investment earnings down to EUR 4m
Slide 19: Synergies on track
Synergies on track l Accumulated merger synergies of EUR 209m l Integration of Postgirot Bank ahead of plan l A number of “second wave projects” initiated 19
Slide 20: Progress in strategic areas
Progress in strategic areas l Divestment of General Insurance continues according to plan l Almost 3 million e-banking customers at the end of March 2002, target for year-end raised to 3.3 million l Strong inflow, 13% (annualised), AuM increased to EUR 108bn 20
Slide 21: Market development – stock market indexes
Market development – stock market indexes % 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2001 Q4/01 Q1/02 Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo Stockholm Nasdaq Dow Jones 21
Slide 22: Market development – stock market volumes
Market development – stock market volumes EURbn 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Average 2001 Q4/01 Q1/02 22 Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo Stockholm
Slide 23: Market development – interest rates
Market development – interest rates Change Dec-01 Mar-02 % Q1/02 Short, EUR (3 months) 3.30 3.45 0.15 Long, EUR (5 years) 4.51 4.91 0.40 Short, DK 3.62 3.67 0.05 Long, DK 4.75 5.12 0.37 Short, NO 6.26 6.59 0.33 Long, NO 6.09 6.57 0.48 Short, SE 3.87 4.28 0.41 Long, SE 4.98 5.42 0.44 23
Slide 24: Market development - GDP
Market development - GDP % 2000 2001 2002e 2003e Denmark 3.0 0.9 1.4 2.1 Finland 5.6 0.7 2.8 4.2 Norway 2.3 1.4 2.2 2.0 Sweden 3.6 1.2 1.3 3.4 Source: Nordea Economic Research 24
Slide 25: Key figures and trends
Key figures and trends Q1 2002
Slide 26: Core earnings
Core earnings EURm 800 700 l Stable underlying development 600 677 604 l Total income up 3% 500 570 555 400 468 409 300 356 393 371 l Expenses unchanged 200 228 100 l Reduced investment earnings 21 110 114 4 0 -100 -93 – Higher interest rates -200 – Mixed development in equity Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/0
Slide 27: Key figures
Key figures EUR Earnings per share % Return on equity (excl. goodwill) 0,20 30 0.18 25 0,16 24.5 20 0,12 15 0,08 0.09 13.0 10 0,04 5 0,00 0 Q4/01 Q1/02 Q4/01 Q1/02 l Positive tax effect and considerable investment earnings in Q4/01 27
Slide 28: Income statement summary
Income statement summary EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Change, Change % excl PG, % Income 1,494 1,452 3 0 Expenses -1,037 -1,038 0 -4 Loan losses -63 -56 13 Equity method 15 35 -57 Profit excl. Investment earnings 409 393 4 2 Investment earnings 4 114 -96 Goodwill -42 -39 8 Operating profit 371 468 -21 28
Slide 29: Income statement summary
Income statement summary Jan-Mar Jan-Mar EURm Change, % 2002 2001 Income 1,494 1,550 -4 Expenses -1,037 -946 10 Loan losses -63 -45 40 Equity method 15 11 36 Profit excl. investment earnings 409 570 -28 Investment earnings 4 21 -81 Goodwill -42 -36 17 Operating profit 371 555 -33 29
Slide 30: Income
Income EURm 1800 1600 1400 678 724 1200 623 600 657 1000 800 600 872 885 856 852 837 400 200 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Net interest income Non-interest income 30
Slide 31: Net interest income
Net interest income EURm 1000 l Lower average short-term interest rates 872 885 800 856 852 837 l Pressure on deposit margins expected to ease as short-term 600 interest rates increase l Lending margins largely 400 unchanged l Margins on new corporate 200 loans stable at higher level l Increased len
Slide 32: Commission income
Commission income EURm 500 365 369 382 365 319 34 34 l Higher commissions from 42 44 400 22 84 87 payments following 75 91 84 acquisition of Postgirot 300 55 79 76 60 56 157 l Mixed development on equity 200 129 127 130 139 markets l AuM up 2% to EUR 108bn 100 113 116 115 126 104 – Distribution of i
Slide 33: Trading
Trading EURm 180 l Income from trading stable at 160 156 high level 140 131 136 120 128 128 l High quality earnings 100 80 – Customer driven revenue 60 stream 40 20 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 33
Slide 34: Income from insurance
Income from insurance EURm 200 180 l Q4 affected by rebuilding of 185 160 financial buffers 140 142 120 l Premiums in Life decreased 125 100 116 compared to Q4 80 l Gross premiums in General 60 72 Insurance, stable at high level 40 20 l Higher claims 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 l Takeover of por
Slide 35: Expenses
Expenses EURm 1200 l Expenses unchanged despite consolidation of 1000 476 451 410 Postgirot 405 410 800 l Development according to plan 600 l Adjusted for Postgirot, total 562 586 556 541 529 expenses decreased by 4% 400 200 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Personnel Other 35
Slide 36: Expenses - breakdown
Expenses - breakdown EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 Personnel 1) 586 567 535 560 545 Information technology 2) 114 119 104 104 95 Marketing 27 39 25 25 29 Postage, telephone and office expenses 74 68 56 63 57 Rents, premises and real estate expenses 82 90 82 91 92 Other 164 166 149 132 137 Expen
Slide 37: Key figures
Key figures C/I ratio, banking C/I ratio, banking excl. inv.earnings % % 70 70 64 66 60 62 60 63 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Q4/01 Q1/02 Q4/01 Q1/02 Adjusted for Postgirot in Q1/02: C/I ratio, banking, 63 %, C/I ratio, banking excl.inv.earnings 64% 37
Slide 38: Total IT-related expenses
Total IT-related expenses* EURm As % of total expenses 250 Q1/02 19.8% 200 210 Q4/01 20.2% 202 200 205 193 Q3/01 21.3% 150 Q2/01 20.9% Q1/01 20.4% 100 50 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 *Computer operations, service expenses, consultants and personnel 38
Slide 39: Loan losses
Loan losses EURm 225 l Underlying loan losses 200 100 considerably reduced 175 – EUR 64m of general provision used in Q4 150 125 l No major single provision 100 113 l No change in general 75 provisions 50 59 63 l Annualised loan loss level in 56 25 45 Q1, 0.18% 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Genera
Slide 40: Investment earnings
Investment earnings EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 Treasury 11 30 1 25 68 Life insurance 0 45 -54 19 -17 General insurance -7 43 -35 11 -32 Other 0 -4 -5 55 2 Investment earnings 4 114 -93 110 21 40
Slide 41: Taxes
Taxes EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Change, % Operating profit 371 468 -21 Taxes -102 55 Net profit 269 523 -49 Earnings per share, EUR 0.09 0.18 RoE excl. goodwill, % 13.0 24.5 41
Slide 42: Business areas
Business areas
Slide 43: Results by business area
Results by business area EURm 500 400 420 366 300 200 100 142 132 55 56 4 4 1 38 35 0 -31 -100 -200 Retail CIB Asset Life* General Treasury Mgmt* *Product result Q4/01 Q1/02 43
Slide 44: Retail Banking
Retail Banking
Slide 45: Retail Banking operating profit
Retail Banking operating profit EURm 500 l Operating profit up 15% 450 463 454 l Integration of Postgirot Bank 400 425 420 ahead of plan 350 366 l Firm development in sales of 300 products and services 250 l Profitability on a high level 200 150 100 50 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 45
Slide 46: Retail Banking operating profit by markets
Retail Banking operating profit by markets Retail EURm Banking DK FI NO SE Operating profit 420 102 146 47 126 C/I ratio % 60* 59 51 67 64** RoE % 23 19 38 13 23 * C/I ratio 58% excluding Postgirot **C/I ratio 59% excluding Postgirot 46
Slide 47: Retail Banking operating profit by markets
Retail Banking operating profit by markets Retail DK FI NO SE P&B EURm Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Net interest income 757 761 208 208 217 226 102 106 224 214 6 7 Non-interest income 322 333 76 90 81 87 38 41 123 112 4 3 Total income 1,079 1,094 284 298 298 313 140 147 347 326 10 10 Total ex
Slide 48: Retail Banking lending
Retail Banking lending EURbn. End of period 40 35 34.0 30 32.2 25 26.4 27.6 20 21.4 22.4 15 17.3 17.7 10 5 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Q4/01 Q1/02 48
Slide 49: Retail Banking deposits
Retail Banking deposits EURbn. End of period 25 20 21.0 19.9 18.3* 15 13.9 14.7 13.5 10 9.2 9.4 5 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Q4/01 Q1/02 *Postgirot, EUR 4m 49
Slide 50: Retail Banking deposits
Retail Banking deposits EURbn End of March 25 20 5.8 15 5.7 6.2 4.1 10 8.1 3.2 2.2 1.1 5 8.5 5.5 5.9 5.1 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Corporate Household - saving accounts Household - current accounts 50
Slide 51: Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB)
Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB)
Slide 52: CIB operating profit
CIB operating profit EURm 160 l Stable corporate banking 140 145 business 142 120 132 l Uncertain equity markets affected 100 investment banking 80 94 60 l Expenses down EUR 13m from 40 Q4 of which EUR 9m was non- 20 recurring 0 -5 -20 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 52
Slide 53: Stock market development
Stock market development Market Volume Market index Q1 2002, Change Q1 Q1 2002, % EURbn vs Q4, % Denmark 14.6 7.2 2.3 Finland 53.0 6.0 -7.0 Norway 15.7 2.8 7.0 Sweden 93.6 -11.1 -2.9 Source: Nordea securities 53
Slide 54: CIB operating profit by main area
CIB operating profit by main area Corporate Shipping & Inter- Inv. CIB EURm Division Offshore national Banking Other Markets Profit before loan losses 141 103 33 20 -7 -8 68 Loan losses -16 -16 -6 4 - 2 - Transfer risk -2 - - -2 - - - Equity method 9 - - 7 - 2 - Operating profit 132 87 27 29 -7 -4 6
Slide 55: CIB operating profit by main area
CIB operating profit by main area Corporate Shipping & Inter- Inv. Banking Other Markets CIB Division Offshore national EURm Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Total income 299 320 166 159 40 40 44 49 16 30 33 42 120 99 Total expenses -158 -171 -63 -65 -7 -10 -24 -23 -23 -39 -41 -34 -52 -49 P
Slide 56: CIB net loan losses
CIB net loan losses EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 Corporate division 16 33 33 2 -8 Shipping division 6 9 9 12 -16 International division -4 4 6 11 0 Acquisition finance -2 21 41 25 48 Total 16 67 89 50 24 General provision - -39 75 0 0 Transfer risk 2 -17 -11 10 6 Total 18 11 153 60 30 56
Slide 57: CIB lending volume
CIB lending volume EURbn. End of period 35 30 30.9 25 27.2 20 15 18.3 16.2 10 5 7.2 6.4 4.4 4.1 0 Corporate Division Shipping and International Total offshore Q4/01 Q1/02 57
Slide 58: Asset Management & Life
Asset Management & Life
Slide 59: Asset Management, product result
Asset Management, product result EURm 80 75 l AuM up 2% to EUR 108bn 70 65 l Strong inflows 60 50 55 56 l Distribution of investment 50 40 funds in Europe continued to grow strongly 30 20 l Awarded “Best Equity Group 10 of the Year” from Lipper (pan- European award) 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 5
Slide 60: Assets under management, volumes
Assets under management, volumes EURbn End of period 120 1.7 1.8 100 35.7 37.8 80 33.2 36.0 30.6 60 22.3 28.7 28.6 21.7 19.5 40 41.6 42.2 39.1 39.5 37.1 20 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Investment management Private banking Investment funds Real estate within Life 60
Slide 61: Asset structure – Investment Management
Asset structure – Investment Management* Dec 2001 March 2002 EUR 72bn EUR 74bn Int'l. fixed Int'l. fixed income income 10% 9% Nordic Nordic fixed Nordic Nordic fixed income equities equities income 38% 21% 23% 40% Int'l. Int'l. equities equities 29% 30% 61 *Including mgmt of own investment funds
Slide 62: Asset structure – Investment Funds
Asset structure – Investment Funds Dec 2001 March 2002 EUR 35.7bn EUR 37.8bn Balanced Balanced funds funds 16% 15% Equity Equity funds funds 51% Fixed Fixed 52% income income funds funds 33% 33% 62
Slide 63: Investment Funds volumes and margins
Investment Funds volumes and margins Volumes, end of period % Margins 20 1,6 18 1,4 1.46 16 17.5 18.0 1,2 1.33 14 1.18 1.18 12 1,0 1.03 10 11.0 0,8 0.99 10.1 8 0,6 0.65 6 0.55 0,4 4 4.1 4.2 0,2 2 1.5 1.5 0 0,0 DK FI NO SE DK* FI NO SE Q4/01 Q1/02 * Net margin Q4/01 Q1/02 63
Slide 64: European Fund distribution
European Fund distribution EURm 1600 l Operations built organically last 18 1400 months 1200 l Leverages Nordea’s international 1000 expertise in Investment Management 800 l 750 active distribution agreements 600 l 35% of sales in Germany, the rest in 400 Switzerland, Austria and Luxembourg 200 0 00
Slide 65: Excellent investment performance
Excellent investment performance • March 22:”Best Equity Group of the Year” - Europe • March 20: ”Best Fund in Category” – Germany • March 14: ”Best Fund in Category” – UK • February 21: ”Best Fund in Category” – Austria • February 6: ”Best Equity Group” – Switzerland • January 10: ”Star Manager of
Slide 66: Major intermediaries offering Nordea funds
Major intermediaries offering Nordea funds 66
Slide 67: Life, product result
Life, product result EURm 60 l Q4 affected by rebuilding of 40 financial buffers 45 20 l Premiums in Life decreased 23 19 compared to Q4 3 5 4 0 0 -17 -20 -41 -40 -54 -60 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Technical result Investment earnings 67
Slide 68: Life
Life EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 - Premiums written, net 693 778 458 746 684 - Technical result 4 -41 5 23 3 - Investment earnings 0 45 -54 19 -17 - Product result 4 4 -49 42 -14 68
Slide 69: Life
Life EURm Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Other Total Premiums written net 179 261 152 92 9 693 Of which traditional life insurance 163 222 133 40 3 561 unit link 16 39 19 52 6 132 Investment return 67 16 29 -37 7 82 Benefits -231 -264 -171 -49 -14 -729 Expenses -15 -5 -12 -6 -4 -42 Technical result 0
Slide 70: Life - investments
Life - investments EURbn. End of period 25 l Equities 20 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.4 – Predominantly listed equities 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 15 – 50/50 Nordic/international 10.5 10.6 11.2 11.5 l Bonds 10 10.8 – ¾ Nordic issuers 5 – Primarily govmn’t & mortgage inst. 5.0 5.5 4.4 5.0 5.3 0 l Total portfolio Q1/01
Slide 71: General Insurance
General Insurance
Slide 72: General Insurance, operating profit
General Insurance, operating profit EURm 50 l Stable development in gross 40 43 premiums at high level 30 20 25 l Higher claims 10 1 11 11 0 l Takeover of portfolio in Estonia -7 -10 -24 l Technical result EUR –24m -20 -32 -30 -35 -42 -40 -50 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Technical result Investment
Slide 73: Combined ratio by main markets
Combined ratio by main markets % 140 120 122 115 118 100 110 105 102 100 101 100 96 80 60 40 20 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 73 Denmark Norway
Slide 74: General insurance
General insurance EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 Premiums gross 505 494 470 453 428 Premiums net 409 409 378 375 358 Technical interest 31 25 28 32 26 Claims -341 -367 -302 -286 -286 Expenses -123 -109 -93 -96 -97 Technical result -24 -42 11 25 1 Investment earnings -7 43 -35 11 -32 Operating pr
Slide 75: General Insurance
General Insurance EURm Denmark Norway TBi Poland Other Total Premiums gross 225 199 63 16 2 505 Premiums, net 195 153 49 10 2 409 Technical interest 13 15 3 0 0 31 Claims -163 -136 -34 -5 -3 -341 Expenses -48 -48 -18 -5 -4 -123 Technical result -3 -16 0 0 -5 -24 Investment earnings 1 -6 -1 -1 0 -7 O
Slide 76: General Insurance - investments
General Insurance - investments EURbn. End of period 3 l Equities: 2,5 0.4 0.4 – Predominantly listed equities 0.4 0.4 1.9 0.4 1.8 2 1.5 1.6 – 50/50 Nordic/international 1.4 1,5 l Bonds 1 – 2/3 Nordic issuers 0,5 – Primarily govmn’t & mortgage inst. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 l Total portfolio 0 Q1/01 Q2/0
Slide 77: Group Treasury
Group Treasury
Slide 78: Group Treasury operating profit
Group Treasury operating profit EURm 90 l Issuance of EUR 500m subordinated 80 68 debt 70 60 l Good result from funding activities, 50 40 l Reduced market risk exposure 38 30 35 35 l Losses on bond portfolio 20 21 10 12 l Positive income from equities 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Reclassification
Slide 79: Group Treasury operating profit by main areas
Group Tresury operating profit by main areas Investment & Risk Trading Group Funding Total Fixed income Equity portfolios portfolios Q1/02 Q4/01 Q1/02 Q4/01 Q1/02 Q4/01 Q1/02 Q4/01 Income - - -5 0 18 34 30 16 Expenses - - -1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -8 Profit excl. Investment earnings 24 8 - - - - 24 8 Investmen
Slide 80: Group Treasury investment portfolio
Group Treasury investment portfolio EURbn. End of period 20 l Equities 0.7 15 – Listed, unlisted & private equity 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 15.1 funds 12.9 13.4 11.7 11.9 10 l Bonds – ¾ Nordic issuers 5 – Primarily govmn´t & mortgage inst. 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Fixed income Equities 80
Slide 81: Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
Slide 82: Balance sheet - key items
Balance sheet - key items EURbn, end of period Mar 02 Dec 01 Change,% Lending 142 138 3 Deposits 86 83 4 Shareholders’ equity 12 12 0 Total assets 253 242 5 Risk-weighted assets 140 136 3 82
Slide 83: Balance sheet structure - assets
Balance sheet structure - assets EURbn. End of period 150 138 142 120 90 60 30 33 32 24 26 24 25 16 21 7 7 0 Lending Interest Loans and Assets, Other assets, Other bearing advances to insurance banking securities credit inst. 31-12-2001 31-03-2002 83
Slide 84: Real estate holdings
Real estate holdings Book value, end of period, EURbn Q1/02 2001 2000 1999 Owner occupied properties 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 Shares in real estate holding 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 companies Other property investments 0.3 0.3 0.6 2.1 Investments of the insurance 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 companies Total 4.1 4.1 4.0 5.5 84
Slide 85: Balance sheet structure – liabilities and equity
Balance sheet structure – liabilities and equity EURbn. End of period 100 90 80 86 83 70 60 67 61 50 40 30 35 30 20 23 20 22 24 10 12 12 11 9 0 Deposits Debt Deposits by Other Liabilities, Shareholder´s Other securities in credit inst. liabilities, insurance equity issue banking 31-12-2001 31-03-200
Slide 86: Lending and deposits
Lending and deposits Lending Deposits EURbn. End of period EURbn. End of period 160 100 140 138 142 120 131 135 134 80 83 86 81 81 77 100 60 80 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 86
Slide 87: Capital adequacy
Capital adequacy Tier 1 ratio Total capital ratio % % 10 10 9 9 9.1 9.2 8 8 7 7 7.3 7.2 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Q4/01 Q1/02 Q4/01 Q1/02 87
Slide 88: Capital base
Capital base EURm End of Mar 02 Shareholder´s equity 11,575 Profit Q1 excluded -269 Companies not included in the financial group 100 Shareholder´s equity in the capital base 11,346 Hybrid capital 787 Minority interests 21 Group goodwill -2,042 Other deductions -64 TIER 1 CAPITAL 10,048 TIER 2 CAPIT
Slide 89: Asset quality
Asset quality
Slide 90: Loan portfolio by customer group
Loan portfolio by customer group (End of March) EUR 142bn Public sector 2% Consumer 37% Companies 61% 90
Slide 91: Lending to companies by industry
Lending to companies by industry (End of March) EUR 87 bn Shipping & Agriculture & offshore fishing 6% 4% Real estate 24% Other companies 10% Construction Renting, 4% consulting and other services Transport, 10% communication Finance 5% 8% Commerce and services Manufacturing 10% 18% 91
Slide 92: Loan portfolio
Loan portfolio End of period EUR bn Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 Households 52 51 50 50 49 Real estate 22 20 19 19 19 Construction 3 3 3 3 3 Transport, communication 4 4 4 4 4 Commerce and services 8 9 8 9 9 Manufacturing 16 16 16 16 15 Finance 7 7 7 9 6 Business service 9 9 8 5 5 Other companies/p
Slide 93: Lending by geographical area
Lending by geographical area (End of December 01)* EUR 138bn Asia Latin America 1% 1% Non-OECD 1% USA Nordic countries 3% 88% Other OECD Other 1% 12% The Baltic states Poland 0.3% Other EU countries 5% Nordic countries, EURbn l Denmark 31 l Finland 27 l Norway 21 l Sweden 42 *Only updated twice a ye
Slide 94: Transfer risk exposure, EURm
Transfer risk exposure, EURm (End of March) Asia 770 Latin America 593 -of which China 164 -of which Brazil 327 South Korea 99 Panama 77 Indonesia 58 Chile 70 Mexico 64 Argentina 5 Middle East 439 -of which Iran 142 Turkey 116 94
Slide 95: Lending to households
Lending to households (End of March) EUR 52bn Other loans comprise: Other loans 19% l Consumer credits l Car financing l Overdraft facilities l Credit cards Housing loans 81% 95
Slide 96: Nordea telecom financing portfolio
Nordea telecom financing portfolio Divided by operators and manufacturers (End of March) Total exposure approx EUR 6.9 bn Manu- l Vast majority of exposure related facturers 41% to – major Nordic equipment manufacturers – major Nordic telecom operators Operators 59% 96
Slide 97: Provisioning policy
Provisioning policy l Corporate customers classified according to internal rating l Quarterly review of loan portfolio l Provisions and action plans reviewed for risk classified customers l New legislation in Sweden introducing general provisions l Nordea´s general provisions deemed adequate 97
Slide 98: Defaulted loans
Defaulted loans EURm End of period March 02 Dec 01 Sep 01 June 01 March 01 Defaulted loans, gross 3,132 3,114 3,120 3,040 3,059 Provisions -2,291 -2,259 -2,267 -2,122 -2,218 Of which: Specific provisions -1,839 -1,803 .. .. .. Appraised by category -82 -92 General provisions -370 -364 .. .. .. Defau
Slide 99: Defaulted loans by industry
Defaulted loans by industry (End of Dec 01) EUR 855 m Other companies Agriculture and 13% Households fishing 26% 1% Construction 2% Manufacturing 6% Transport 6% Trade & services Real estate 6% management 11% Financial operations 7% Renting, consulting Shipping and other company 12% servicies 10% 99
Slide 100: Loan losses
Loan losses EURm 400 361 l Underlying loan losses 321 considerably reduced 300 183 193 213 l No major single provision 200 168 l No change in general 100 59 56 63 45 provisions 0 l Annualised loan loss level in -100 Q1, 0.18% -105 -138 -134 -148 -200 -300 -264 Q1/01 Q2/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q1/02 Gross Rev
Slide 101: Comments on certain industries
Comments on certain industries Real estate l Vacancy rates still low but increasing l Rent levels down from peak but still much higher than original levels 3-5 years ago l Low interest rates help secure cash flow and secondary market values l New construction volumes adjusting to decreased demand 10
Slide 102: Comments on certain industries
Comments on certain industries Telecom l Operators’ profitability declining due to increased competition and non- productive assets l Slower than expected demand for enhanced services (WAP, GPRS, 3G, Broadband) l Delayed investments in 3G affect equipment suppliers and manufacturers l Consolidation
Slide 103: Comments on certain industries
Comments on certain industries Aircraft Finance l Stabilising after last years chock effect l US and cross-atlantic operators still suffering l Nordic operators show ability to adjust to new market conditions l No new needs for provisions identified 103
Slide 104: Comments on certain industries
Comments on certain industries Shipping l Slower economic growth generally affects the industry negatively l Container ships worst hit, tanker rates decreased significantly but from exceptionally high levels l Reefers and product tankers doing reasonably well l Cruising picking up after first shock
Slide 105: Comments on certain industries
Comments on certain industries Other industries l Automobile industry and particularly subcontractors under pressure l All media companies suffer from reduced advertising income l Capital goods sector under intense competitive pressure as volumes drop l Nordic traditional industries (forestry, pulp
Slide 106: Economic capital
Economic capital
Slide 107: Economic capital
Economic capital l 7 different risk categories are incorporated l The measurement period is one year l The confidence level is 99.97% l The economic capital may change over time due to: – the composition of risk exposures – changes in parameters l Economic capital is used for – risk management – per
Slide 108: Economic capital per business area
Economic capital per business area End of March EUR 10.7bn Other Treasury 8% 6% l Economic capital reduced General by EUR 0.4bn in Q1 Insurance 9% Retail 45% Asset Mgmt & Life 10% CIB 108 22%
Slide 109: Distribution of economic capital - by risk category
Distribution of economic capital - by risk category End of March Business risk General Insurance 9% Life Insurance 3% 1% Operational 9% Real Estate 8% Credit 56% Market 14% 109
Slide 110: Appendix
Appendix l Market shares Page 113 l Financials Page 128 l Nordea share Page 138 l E-banking Page 146 l Other Page 152 l Macro statistics Page 156 110
Slide 111: Appendix – Market shares
Appendix l Market shares *Statistics from Sweden delayed due to technical problems in the Swedish central bank 111
Slide 112: Market shares, household deposits
Market shares, household deposits % 40 35 34.1 33.8 30 25 20 22.9 22.9 20.4 15 10 8.3 8.7 5 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Dec 01 Feb 02 112
Slide 113: Household deposits - market volume & share
00 -J 0 100 200 300 400 no DKKbn un NOKbn v- 0 100 200 300 400 9 00 fe 9 -S b- 0 ep m 0 aj 00 -0 -D au 0 ec g- 00 01 no -m v- 0 ar fe 0 01 b- 0 -ju m 1 Norway ne Denmark aj -0 01 au 1 -s g- ep 0 no 1 01 v- -d 0 e fe 1 c b- 02 Market volume 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% au au g -9 0 10
Slide 114: Market shares, corporate deposits
Market shares, corporate deposits % 60 50 47.7 46.6 40 30 20 22.1 20.2 16.4 16.3 15.0 10 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Dec 01 Feb 02 114
Slide 115: Corporate deposits - market volume & share
no ju v- n- 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 99 00 fe b DKKbn NOKbn -0 se p- m 0 00 aj -0 de au 0 c- g- 00 0 no 0 m v- ar 0 -0 fe 0 1 b- 0 ju m 1 n- Norway Denmark aj 01 -0 se au 1 g- p -0 0 1 no 1 de v- 0 c- 01 fe 1 b- Market volume 02 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% no au v- g-
Slide 116: Market shares, household lending
Market shares, household lending % 35 30 31.4 31.3 25 20 18.5 18.7 15 14.2 10 9.9 10.0 5 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Dec 01 Feb-02 116
Slide 117: Household lending - market volume & share
no ju v- n- 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 9 50 0 100 150 200 250 00 fe 9 DKKbn NOKbn b- se 00 p- m 00 aj -0 de au 0 c- g- 00 0 no 0 m v- ar 00 -0 fe 1 b- 0 ju m 1 n- Norway Denmark aj 01 -0 au 1 se g- p- 01 01 no de v- c- 0 01 fe 1 b- Market volume 02 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% au g -9 au 0
Slide 118: Market shares, corporate lending
Market shares, corporate lending % 50 45 45.3 45.8 40 35 30 25 28.3 28,0 20 15 17.3 17.7 10 14.8 5 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Dec 01 Feb 02 118
Slide 119: Corporate lending - market volume & share
Corporate lending - market volume & share DKKbn Denmark EURbn Finland 350 32% 50% 300 30 30% 48% 250 200 28% 20 46% 150 26% 44% 100 10 24% 42% 50 0 22% 0 40% fe 9 fe 0 fe 1 au 0 au 0 1 no 9 no 0 no 1 m 0 m 1 02 00 01 1 00 00 01 01 9 0 0 0 -0 0 9 0 0 -0 v- v- v- - g- g- g- b- b- b- n- n- aj aj p- c-
Slide 120: Investment funds - market volume & share
Investment funds - market volume & share DKKbn Denmark EURbn Finland 32% 300 16 34% 30% 14 250 32% 28% 12 200 10 30% 150 26% 8 100 24% 6 28% 22% 4 26% 50 2 0 20% 0 24% 00 1 98 99 01 00 1 98 99 01 -0 -0 n- c- p- c- n- ar c- p- c- ar ju de de se ju m de de se m NOKbn Norway SEKbn Sweden 160 14% 1000 2
Slide 121: Investment funds, Nordic region
Investment funds, Nordic region Market volume and Nordea's market share 180 25% 160 140 23% 120 21% 100 80 19% 60 40 17% 20 0 15% 9 0 1 99 00 01 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 -9 -0 -0 n- n- n- c- p- c- p- c- p- c- ar ar ar ju ju ju de de de de se se se m m m Market volume Market share, Nordea 121
Slide 122: Investment funds, net inflow, Norway
Investment funds, net inflow, Norway Market volume, Nordea volume, and accumulated market share ytd NOKm % 3 500 70 3 000 60 2 500 50 2 000 40 1 500 30 1 000 20 500 10 0 0 -500 -10 -1 000 -20 -1 500 -30 -2 000 -40 0 1 0 1 2 0 00 1 01 00 01 02 00 01 l-0 l-0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 v- v- n- n- n- p- p- ar ar a
Slide 123: Investment funds, net inflow, Finland
Investment funds, net inflow, Finland Market volume, Nordea volume, and accumulated market share ytd EURm % 1000 40 800 32 600 24 400 16 200 8 0 0 -200 -8 -400 -16 0 1 0 1 0 00 1 01 00 01 02 00 01 -0 l-0 -0 l-0 -0 -0 v- v- n- n- n- p- p- ar ar aj aj ju ju no no ja ja ja se se m m m m Market net infl
Slide 124: Investment funds, net inflow, Sweden
Investment funds, net inflow, Sweden Market volume, Nordea volume, and accumulated market share ytd SEKm 29bn 18bn % 14 000 28 12 000 24 10 000 20 8 000 16 6 000 12 4 000 8 2 000 4 0 0 -2 000 -4 0 0 0 0 00 00 1 1 1 1 01 01 n-0 r -0 j -0 l-0 p - v - n-0 r -0 j -0 l-0 p - v - ja a a ju no ja a a ju no
Slide 125: Market share, equity dealing - Nordea Securities
Market share, equity dealing - Nordea Securities % 18 Equity market turnover Q1/02 EURbn 16 16.6 Denmark 14.6 14 14.0 Finland 53.0 12 15.1 12.3 Norway 15.7 10 11.3 Sweden 93.6 8 7.5 7.1 6 6.6 5.8 4 4.9 4.3 3.6 2 0 en lm i o nk sl o ag si O kh el nh c H to e op S C 2001 Q4/01 Q1/02 125
Slide 126: Appendix – Financials
Appendix l Financials 126
Slide 127: Operational income statement
Operational income statement EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 Net interest income 837 852 856 885 872 Commission income 376 363 314 359 361 Trading 136 128 131 128 156 Net income from insurance 116 72 142 185 125 Other 29 37 36 52 36 Income 1,494 1,452 1,479 1,609 1,550 Personnel expenses -586 -56
Slide 128: Commission income
Commission income EURm 400 l Mixed development on equity 380 376 markets 360 361 359 363 340 l Higher commissions from 320 payments following acquisition 300 314 of Postgirot 280 l AuM up 2% to EUR 108bn 260 240 l Distribution of investment funds 220 in Europe continued to grow 200 strongly Q1/01 Q2
Slide 129: Statutory income statement
Statutory income statement EURm Jan-Mar 2002 Jan-Mar 2001 Interest income 2,509 3,057 Interest expenses -1,615 -2,125 Net interest income 894 932 Dividends received 5 23 Net commission income 386 365 Net result from financial operations 82 149 Other income 29 28 Total income 1,396 1,497 General admi
Slide 130: Reconciliation of operational and statutory accounts
Reconciliation of operational and statutory accounts EURm Operational Trading Investment Insurance total to Other Statutory Jan.-Mar 2002 income activities own line adjusment Jan-Mar 2002 Net interest income 837 31 1) 26 6) 0 894 Dividends received 5 9) 0 5 Net commission income 376 6 2) 4 13) 0 386
Slide 131: Reconciliation of operational and statutory accounts
Reconciliation of operational and statutory acounts 1) Net interest income from trading transactions in Nordea Markets (for 13) Net income insurance (Life & General), including investment activities (and example interest related to swaps etc.), reclassified as trading income in relevant costs), i.e.
Slide 132: Investment earnings - non-recurring items
Investment earnings - non-recurring items EURm Q1/02 Q4/01 Q3/01 Q2/01 Q1/01 Aleksia/Ilmarinen (Other) 40 Atle (Treasury) 57 Reclassification of securities (Treasury) 68 Total - - - 97 68 132
Slide 133: Restructuring reserve
Restructuring reserve EURm Originally, Unidanmark 200 l EUR 15m utilised in Q1/02 Utilised 2000 -71 Originally, CBK 90 l Merger integration activities Remaining reserve Jan 2001 219 continued at a high level Utilised Q1/01 -18 Q2/01 -24 Q3/01 -7 Q4/01 -110 Originally, Postgirot 43 Remaining reserve
Slide 134: Synergies under delivery
Synergies under delivery Realised Realised Realised Target 2003 EURm 2000 2001 Q1 2002* Cost Revenue Total CIB 20 98 121 92 32 124 Retail banking - 20 20 35 47 82 Other business areas 3 - 11 20 51 71 IT - 29 32 55 - 55 Treasury - 21 25 - 15 15 Other group functions - - - 13 - 13 Total 23 168 209 215
Slide 135: Nordea shipping portfolio
Nordea shipping portfolio Distribution by type of vessel (End of Dec 2001)* Total exposure approx EUR 5.6bn Other dry cargo Combined 4% vessels 2% Crude tankers 15% l Well diversified portfolio Pure car carries 3% by type of vessel Reefers 4% l Focus on large industrial Chemical tankers Misc.loans p
Slide 136: Bank ratings
Bank ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch BFSR Short Long Short Long Short Long Individ. Nordea Bank F B P-1 Aa3 A-1 A+ F1+ AA- B Nordea Bank S B P-1 Aa3 A-1 A+ F1+ AA- B Nordea Bank D B P-1 Aa3 A-1 A+ F1+ AA- B Nordea Bank N B- P-1 Aa3 A-1 A+ F1+ AA- B Nordea Hypotek P-1 Aa3 A-1 Nordea Kredit Aa1 Norgeskredit
Slide 137: Insurance ratings
Insurance ratings Moody’s S&P A.M.Best Dansk Kautionsforsikrings-Aktieselskab BBB+1) Tryg-Baltica Forsikring, internationalt BBB+1) A- (excellent) Forsikringsselskab A/S Tryg-Baltica International (UK) Ltd BBB+1) A- (excellent) Tryg Forsikring A/S A12) 1) On CreditWatch with negative implications 2)
Slide 138: Appendix – Nordea share
Nordea Appendix e Nordea share
Slide 139: Dividend proposal
Dividend proposal l Per share, EUR 0.23 – 4.1% increase, based on exchange ratio at time of payment (2000) l Total, EURm 686 l Pay-out ratio (Of the net profit, target >40%) 44% l Dividend yield (Calculated on share price Dec 28, 2001) 3.9% l Record date 29 April l Payment date 7 May 139
Slide 140: Nordea vs DJ Stoxx European banks
Nordea vs DJ Stoxx European banks 6 March 2000* - 16 April 2002 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Mar-00 Jun Sep Dec Mar-01 Jun Sep Dec Mar-02 Nordea DJ Stoxx European Banks * Date of announcement of MNB/Unidanmark merger 140
Slide 141: Nordic bank shares, liquidity April 2001 – March 2002
Nordic bank shares, liquidity April 2001 – March 2002 EURm 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March Danske Bank SEB FSPA Handelsbanken Nordea 141
Slide 142: Shareholder structure, End of March 2002
Shareholder structure, End of March 2002 3.9% 1.9% 6.0% 22.6% 8.1% International investors Swedish institutions Swedish government Danish institutions Finnish institutions 12.1% Finnish public Danish public 27.1% Swedish public 18.3% Number of shareholders 512,000 142
Slide 143: Largest registered shareholders
Largest registered shareholders End of March 2002 Shareholder Number of shares Percent Swedish Government 542,015,102 18.28 % Tryg i Danmark smba 185,609,801 6.26 % Nordea Danmark fonden 102,529,423 3.46 % Alecta 98,680,679 3.33 % Robur fonder 78,489,330 2.65 % Nordea fonder 52,358,562 1.77 % AMF Pe
Slide 144: Number of shares
Number of shares Type of Number of Outstanding Date transaction Subject shares issued shares Jan, 2000 New issue Merita 815,800,287 2,091,067,728 April, 2000 New issue Unidanmark 869,776,488 2,960,844,216 June, 2000 New issue Unidanmark 18,348,501 2,979,192,717 2000-2001 New issue Conversions* 3,473
Slide 145: Data per share
Data per share Q1/02 2001 2000 19992) 1998 EUR SEK SEK SEK Dividend 1) - 0.23 2.00 1.75 1.64 Shareholders equity per share, EUR 3.90 4.00 3.74 3.43 2.68 Earnings per share, EUR 0.09 0.53 0.58 0.55 0.53 P/E ratio 18.1 11.3 14.0 10.6 11.0 1) Proposed for 2001 2) Pro forma incl. Unidanmark 145
Slide 146: Appendix – E-banking
Appendix l E-banking 146
Slide 147: Penetration on the net
Ja 0 5 10 15 20 25 n % Fe -01 b M -01 a A r-01 pr il M -01 a Ju y-0 ne 1 Ju -01 ly A - 01 ug S -01 ep t- O 01 ct N -01 ov De -01 c- Ja 0 1 n Fe -02 Penetration on the net b- M 02 Solo mutual funds penetration rate ar -0 2 Ja % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 n- 0 M 0 ar -0 M 0 ay - Ju 00 ly - Se 00 pt -0 No
Slide 148: E-banking customers
Ja n 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 Mill. M -00 ar M -00 ay Ju -00 l Se y-0 pt 0 N -00 ov Ja -00 n M -01 a M r-01 ay Ju -01 l Se y-0 pt 1 N -01 Solo e-banking customers ov E-banking customers Ja -01 M n-0 ar 2 -0 21 Ja 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 n- 0 Ap 0 Thousands ril -0 Ju 0 ly- 00 O ct -0 0 Ja n- 0 Ap 1 ril -0
Slide 149: Payments and log-ons
Payments and log-ons E-banking payments E-banking log-ons Mill. Mill. 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 02 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 02 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 1/ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Norwa
Slide 150: Payments, private customers
Mill. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ja n- 01 Fe Net b- 01 M ar -0 Ap 1 ril -0 M 1 Direct debit ay -0 Ju 1 ne -0 Ju 1 ly -0 1 Payments, private customers Au g- 0 Se 1 Envelope (Giro) pt -0 1 O ct -0 1 N ov Manual -0 D 1 ec -0 1 Ja n- 0 Fe 2 b- 02 M ar -0 2 Others (ATMs etc.) 150
Slide 151: Appendix – Other
Appendix l Other 151
Slide 152: Corporate Statement
Corporate Statement Mission Making it possible. By providing a broad set of seamless and easily accessible financial solutions and competitive advisory services, Nordea helps customers where we operate to reach their objectives. Vision We will be valued as the leading financial services group in the
Slide 153: Business structure 1 January 2002
Business structure 1 January 2002 Board of Directors Group Audit Group CEO Group Corporate Centre Group Staffs Corporate and Institutional Asset Management & Retail Banking General Insurance Banking Life Regional banks Corporate Division Investment Management Denmark Corporate Shipping, Offshore & O
Slide 154: Legal structure January 1, 2002
Legal structure January 1, 2002 Nordea AB (publ) Sweden Nordea Bank Nordea Securities AB Nordea Asset Management AB Nordea INS Holding A/S Denmark Finland Plc Finland Sweden Sweden Nordea Bank Nordea Bank Nordea Bank Various Various Tryg A/S Sweden AB (publ) Norge ASA Danmark A/S subsidiaries subsid
Slide 155: Group Executive Management
Group Executive Management Thorleif Krarup Group CEO Lars G Nordström Head of Retail Banking Markku Pohjola Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking Christian Clausen Head of Asset Management and Life Tom Ruud Head of Group Staffs (Group IT, Group Human Resources, Group Identity and Communication
Slide 156: Appendix – Macro statistics and estimates
Appendix l Macro statistics and estimates Source: Nordea Economic Research 156
Slide 157: Macro data
Macro data 2001 2002e 2003e Gross domestic product DK 0.9 1.4 2.1 FI 0.7 2.8 4.2 NO 1.4 2.2 2.0 SE 1.2 1.3 3.4 Inflation DK 2.4 1.6 2.0 FI 2.6 1.5 1.6 NO 3.0 1.5 2.3 SE 2.6 1.8 1.7 Private consumption DK 0.6 1.5 2.0 FI 1.4 2.5 3.0 NO 2.2 3.1 2.8 SE 0.2 1.5 2.8 Unemployment DK 5.1 5.4 5.2 FI 9.1 9.5
Slide 158: Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product Change in % YoY 8 6 4 2 0 Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94 Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 -2 -4 -6 -8 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 158
Slide 159: Inflation
Inflation % 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 159
Slide 160: Private consumption
Private consumption Change in % YoY 10 8 6 4 2 0 Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94 Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 -2 -4 -6 -8 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 160
Slide 161: Household savings ratio
Household savings ratio % 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 161
Slide 162: Unemployment
Unemployment % of labour force 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 162 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden
Slide 163: Credit growth total lending to non-bank sector
Credit growth total lending to non-bank sector Change in % YoY 15 10 5 0 ch ch ch ch ch ch p t t t t t ep ep ep ep ep e ar ar ar ar ar ar -s S S S S S M M M M M M -5 01 96 97 98 99 00 96 97 98 99 00 01 -10 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 163
Slide 164: Bankruptcies
Bankruptcies Number of bankruptcies per month 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 164
Slide 165: Exchange rate, Euro/USD
1- SEK 1 -9 0,8 0,85 0,9 0,95 1 1,05 1,1 1,15 1,2 1- 8 4 -9 1- 8 7 - 1- 98 10 -9 1- 8 1 -9 1- 9 4 -9 1- 9 7 - 1- 99 10 -9 Exchange rate, Euro/USD 1- 9 1 -0 1- 0 4 -0 1- 0 7 - 1- 00 10 -0 1- 0 1 -0 1- 1 4 -0 1- 1 7 - 1- 01 10 -0 1- 1 1 -0 1- 2 4 -0 2 165
Slide 166: Exchange rate, Euro/SEK
1- 1 -9 SEK 8 8,4 8,8 9,2 9,6 10 1- 8 4 -9 1- 8 7 - 1- 98 10 -9 1- 8 1 -9 1- 9 4 -9 1- 9 7 - 1- 99 10 -9 1- 9 1 Exchange rate, Euro/SEK -0 1- 0 4 -0 1- 0 7 - 1- 00 10 -0 1- 0 1 -0 1- 1 4 -0 1- 1 7 - 1- 01 10 -0 1- 1 1 -0 1- 2 4 -0 2 166
Slide 167: Exchange rate, Euro/NOK
1- 1 SEK -9 7 7,5 8 8,5 9 9,5 10 1- 8 4 -9 1- 8 7 - 1- 98 10 -9 1- 8 1 -9 1- 9 4 -9 1- 9 7 - 1- 99 10 -9 1- 9 1 -0 Exchange rate, Euro/NOK 1- 0 4 -0 1- 0 7 - 1- 00 10 -0 1- 0 1 -0 1- 1 4 -0 1- 1 7 - 1- 01 10 -0 1- 1 1 -0 1- 2 4 -0 2 167
Slide 168: Oilprice development, Brent, USD/Barrel
1- 1 -9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 Dollar 1- 1 -9 1 1- 1 -9 2 1- 1 -9 3 1- 1 -9 4 1- 1 -9 5 1- 1 -9 6 1- 1 -9 7 1- 1 -9 8 1- 1 -9 9 Oilprice development, Brent, USD/Barrel 1- 1 -0 0 1- 1 -0 1 1- 1 -0 2 168
Slide 169: Stock exchange indices
Stock exchange indices Index 100 = 1990 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 31 7 30 7 31 7 31 8 30 8 31 8 31 9 30 9 31 9 31 0 30 0 31 0 31 1 30 1 31 1 2 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 -5 -9 -1 -5 -9 -1 -5 -9 -1 -5 -9 -1 -5 -9 -1 31 HEX Index Affärsvärldens General Index 169 Oslo Tot
Slide 170: Money market, 3 months rates
1- 1 -9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1- 8 4 -9 1- 8 7 1 - -9 8 10 -9 1- 8 1 -9 Denmark 1- 9 4 -9 1- 9 7 1 - -9 9 Finland 10 -9 1- 9 1 -0 1- 0 4 Norway Money market, 3 months rates -0 1- 0 7 1 - -0 0 10 -0 Sweden 1- 0 1 -0 1- 1 4 -0 1- 1 7 1 - -0 1 10 -0 1- 1 1 -0 2 170
Slide 171: Government bond, 10 year
1- 1 -9 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 6 6,5 7 1- 8 4 -9 1- 8 7 - 1- 9 8 10 -9 1- 8 1 -9 Denmark 1- 9 4 -9 1- 9 7 - 1- 9 9 10 Finland -9 1- 9 1 -0 Government bond, 10 year 1- 0 4 -0 Norway 1- 0 7 - 1- 0 0 10 -0 1- 0 1 Sweden -0 1- 1 4 -0 1- 1 7 - 1- 0 1 10 -0 1- 1 1 -0 1- 2 4 -0 2 171
Slide 172: Investor Relations
Investor Relations investor.relations@nordea.com 172