Shell PLC · LSE:SHEL
Shell — Conference Presentation (April 2010)
18 slides from Shell's conference presentation, Apr 22, 2010
Slide 1: Natural Gas: A Vital Part of Europe's Energy Future
NATURAL GAS: A VITAL PART OF EUROPE’S ENERGY FUTURE Malcolm Brinded EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, UPSTREAM INTERNATIONAL Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04 / 2010 1
Slide 2: Europe's Gas Puzzle
EUROPE’S GAS PUZZLE Growing demand for natural gas Gas vs coal vs nuclear vs renewables, on: Availability, Affordability, Environmental Acceptability Domestic gas supplies declining Unconventional gas resources considerable, but impact not yet clear Rising imports Fast growth of LNG New pipelines Co
Slide 3: Natural Gas Outlook
NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK Natural gas demand growth Growing LNG capabilities BCM 3.000 2.500 2.000 1990 2000 2010E SOURCE: IEA GALLINA LNG SHIP Natural gas advantage: example cost Attractive economics for electricity producers $/MW hour Abundant global gas resources ~250 years reserves at current producti
Slide 4: Global LNG Market Developments
GLOBAL LNG MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 2008 2015 LNG importers LNG importers LNG exporters LNG exporters # Countries 2008 2015 est. % increase LNG importers 19 ~30-35 75% LNG exporters 15 ~20 25% Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG tool (April 2010) Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04 / 2010 4
Slide 5: Floating LNG
FLOATING LNG Length 480m Width 75m Weight (fully loaded) 600,000 metric tonnes Prelude Largest floating structure Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04 / 2010 5
Slide 6: China: 3rd Largest Gas Market by 2020
CHINA: 3rd LARGEST GAS MARKET BY 2020 China’s gas pipeline network 2009 . . . . . . 2020 2009 China’s Gas Supply 2020 2020 ~250-350 bcmpa Imports Indigenous 2010 ~100 bcmpa More integrated gas system Further diversification of supply sources Existing regas terminals Introducing market pricing Under
Slide 7: Middle East / North Africa Growing Gas Demand
MIDDLE EAST / NORTH AFRICA GROWING GAS DEMAND 80 70 60 50 bcf / d 40 2020 30 2005 20 10 0 Europe Middle East & North Africa Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc Sources: IEA, US EIA, Shell, Arthur D. Little, BMI, ARPC, Global Insights, Wood MacKenzie 04 / 2010 7
Slide 8: The Three A's
THE THREE A’S Environmentally Acceptable? Financially Affordable? Abundant, Available and Accessible? Part of the long-term solution ? Is natural gas a transition fuel or a destination fuel? How to reduce concerns over security of supply? Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04 / 2010 8
Slide 9: Acceptability – Meeting CO2 Targets
ACCEPTABILITY – MEETING CO2 TARGETS Potential 24% cumulative reduction Potential UK Power CO2 Emissions in UK CO2 emissions by 2050 at same net present cost UK - Electricity CO2 emissions - Case 1 v Case 2 Faster gas plant construction: 300 Keep CCGT gas: 24-28 months 250 Coal Coal plants: 52-58 mon
Slide 10: Acceptability: Natural Gas vs Coal
ACCEPTABILITY: NATURAL GAS VS COAL Gas plants emit: Old 50% less CO2 than a modern Coal coal plant USC 60-70% less CO2 than an old coal plant With CCS CCGT No CCS Gas CCS cost ≤ coal per MWh 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 kg CO2 / MWh USC: Ultra Super Critical Coal (modern coal) CCGT: Combined Cycle Ga
Slide 11: Future Trends in Power Generation
FUTURE TRENDS IN POWER GENERATION 100% Fossil Fuels % of Market CCS for CCS for Gas New Gas for Coal Old Coal Energy Efficiency Renewables & Other Now Mid-Century Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04 / 2010 11
Slide 12: Affordability: Attractive Economics for Electricity Producers
AFFORDABILITY ATTRACTIVE ECONOMICS FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCERS Gas plants more energy efficient Solar Thermal than coal plants - 55-60% vs. 34-42% Wind Onshore Gas has much lower capital Nuclear costs per MW installed: 50% of coal Coal Total Cost 20% of nuclear CCGT Capital Costs 15% of onshore wind 0
Slide 13: Europe's Gas Supply
EUROPE’S GAS SUPPLY TCM Gas Reserves Europe 2020 Estimates Existing pipelines Proposed pipelines Consumption 660 bcm Planned pipelines Production 200 bcm Existing regas terminals LNG imports 200 bcm Under construction Planned Russia: Indigenous: 45 TCM 6 TCM Unconventional Gas? Trinidad &Tobago 1 TC
Slide 14: LNG from Qatar - Destination Europe
LNG FROM QATAR - DESTINATION EUROPE Picture courtesy Nakilat Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04 / 2010 14
Slide 15: Requirements for Security of Supply
REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY Send positive signals to suppliers about natural gas Invest in infrastructure: LNG import terminals, pipelines, storage Support new gas projects by contracting for purchases early Security of supply / demand: requires focus on long-term contracts Copyright of Roya
Slide 16: Natural Gas for Europe: A Destination Fuel
NATURAL GAS FOR EUROPE: A DESTINATION FUEL Natural gas is: . . . Abundant, Affordable and environmentally Acceptable Replacing coal with gas for electricity generation is: . . . the cheapest way to meet CO2 reduction targets Diverse and reliable sources, if Europe invests in new supplies early, and
Slide 17: Q&A
Q&A 17
Slide 18: Slide 18