Allan Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder AMETF · JSE:AGOGE
Allan Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder AMETF — Allan Gray — Investor Presentation (November 2021)
22 slides from Allan Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder AMETF's investor presentation, November 2021
Slide 1: Allan Gray Investment Update
Allan Gray Investment Update Duncan Artus Varshan Maharaj Thalia Petousis Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 1
Slide 2: Have we seen this before?
Have we seen this before? Source: Google Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 2
Slide 3: What could change: Inflation in the developed world
-6.5 -4.5 -2.5 -0.5 1.5 3.5 2005/03/31 2005/08/31 2006/01/31 2006/06/30 2006/11/30 2007/04/30 Source: Bloomberg, data to 21.10.2021 2007/09/30 2008/02/29 2008/07/31 2008/12/31 2009/05/31 U.S. 2009/10/31 2010/03/31 2010/08/31 US 10-year 2011/01/31 2011/06/30 2011/11/30 10-yearbreak-even 2012/04/30 br
Slide 4: What is changing: The energy transition is not free
100 120 140 160 200 220 240 180 40 60 80 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 Source: Iress data to 15.10.2021 May-2018 Jun-2018 Jul-2018 Aug-2018 Sep-2018 Oct-2018 Nov-2018 Dec-2018 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 Mar-2019 Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Short-term thermal coal price Jul-2019 Aug-2019 Sep-201
Slide 5: Are rates starting to reprice for a different world?
Are rates starting to reprice for a different world? UK short-term interest rates 0.220 0.170 0.120 0.070 0.020 Apr-2021 Aug-2020 Sep-2020 Aug-2021 Sep-2021 Oct-2020 May-2021 Oct-2021 Jul-2020 Jan-2021 Jun-2021 Jul-2021 Mar-2021 Nov-2020 Dec-2020 Feb-2021 Source: Iress, data to 21.10.21 Allan Gray P
Slide 6: What does this potential new world mean for asset allocators in SA?
What does this potential new world mean for asset allocators in SA? Returns from bonds vs equities 1.0 400 0.8 350 0.6 300 0.4 250 Percentage 0.2 200 Ratio 0.0 150 -0.2 100 -0.4 50 -0.6 0 -0.8 -50 -1.0 -100 Dec-1980 Dec-1981 Dec-1982 Dec-1983 Dec-1984 Dec-1985 Dec-1986 Dec-1987 Dec-1988 Dec-1989 Dec
Slide 7: Closer look at relative returns from different asset classes
Closer look at relative returns from different asset classes Bonds vs equities 35% 30.3% 30% Annualised return 25% 23.2% 20% 15% 12.5% 11.5% 10.6% 9.1% 8.6% 8.5% 7.8% 10% 8.3% 6.5% 6.0% 5.9% 5.4% 5.0% 5% 3.5% 0% 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years Cash ALBI ALSI Capped SWIX Source: Iress, data to 30.09.
Slide 8: SA: A tale of two borrowings?
SA: A tale of two borrowings? SA private sector credit extension vs government borrowing, y/y % growth 35% Private PrivateSector borrowing,rate sector borrowing, rate of of increase increase 30% Government Government borrowing, rateofofincrease borrowing, rate increase 25% 21.5% 20% 15% 10% 5% -1.00
Slide 9: Earnings are high – driven by commodity prices
ALSI trendline earnings Earnings are high – driven by commodity prices 50 45 40 35 30 Percentage 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: Allan Gray research, 21.
Slide 10: What could change: Depressed asset class
What could change: Depressed asset class ALSI relative to the S&P 500 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 Source: I
Slide 11: Asset allocation to September 2021
Asset allocation to 30 September 2021 Allan Gray Balanced Fund % of portfolio Africa Foreign Asset class Total Local ex-SA ex-Africa Net Equity 70.9 50.6 1.8 18.5 Hedged Equity 6.3 1.5 0.0 4.8 Property 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 Commodity-linked 3.0 2.3 0.0 0.7 Bonds 13.3 10.0 1.4 1.9 Money market and cash 5.6
Slide 12: FTSE/JSE All Share Index: Impact of the largest shares
FTSE/JSE All Share Index Impact of the largest shares on index performance 300 AGL, BHP, CFR and NPN* 250 Value of R100 invested 200 150 100 50 Feb-2016 Feb-2017 Feb-2018 Feb-2019 Feb-2020 Feb-2021 Dec-2015 Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Dec-2019 Dec-2020 Jun-2016 Aug-2016 Jun-2017 Aug-2017 Jun-2018 Aug
Slide 13: Real iron ore price
Real iron ore price US PPI inflator 250 200 150 100 50 - 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 Peak Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Allan Gray Prop
Slide 14: Sectoral allocation as at September 2021
Sectoral allocation as at 30 September 2021 Allan Gray Capped SWIX ALSI Balanced Fund Financials 31 31 22 Banks 13 16 11 Insurers 5 5 4 Reinet & Remgro 6 2 1 Other 7 8 6 Industrials 43 45 46 British American Tobacco 10 3 2 Naspers & Prosus 10 12 12 Richemont 0 2 10 Food & general retailers 8 11 7 He
Slide 15: Top local equity holdings as at September 2021
Top 10 local equity holdings as at 30 September 2021 Allan Gray Balanced Fund % of Fund Naspers* 5.4 British American Tobacco 5.0 Glencore 4.5 Woolworths 2.7 Sasol 2.4 Standard Bank 2.3 Remgro 2.1 Old Mutual 2.1 Nedbank 1.9 FirstRand 1.8 Total 30.2 * Includes holding in Prosus N.V. Allan Gray Propri
Slide 16: Inherent value in the portfolio: Remgro NAV
Inherent value in the portfolio Remgro NAV today versus potential future NAV 250 200 150 100 50 0 Share price Current Post-action NAV REM Other assets FSR CIVH RCL + Siqalo MEI DGH RMI DSY MMI Source: Allan Gray research Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. ©
Slide 17: Take advantage of poor sentiment: AB InBev and Richemont
Take advantage of poor sentiment AB InBev and Richemont 18.6x 4.7x Source: Allan Gray research, Google Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 17
Slide 18: The red list / Something to monitor
600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2400 2700 3000 Jul-2020 Aug-2020 Sep-2020 Oct-2020 Nov-2020 Dec-2020 Jan-2021 The red list Source: Allan Gray research, 21.10.2021 Feb-2021 Mar-2021 Apr-2021 Sun International May-2021 Jun-2021 Jul-2021 Aug-2021 Sep-2021 Something to monitor Oct-2021 -600 -400 -200 200 40
Slide 19: Thank you
Thank you Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 19
Slide 20: Important information
Important information Copyright © 2021 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited. All rights reserved. The content and information may not be reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Allan Gray Proprietary Limited (Allan Gray). Information and content The information and content of this p
Slide 21: Important information
Important information Benchmarks FTSE/JSE All Share Index and FTSE/JSE All Bond Index The FTSE/JSE All Share Index and FTSE/JSE All Bond Index (the FTSE/JSE Indices) are calculated by FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) in conjunction with the JSE Limited (‘JSE’) in accordance with standard criteria
Slide 22: Important information
Important information Understanding the funds Investors must make sure that they understand the nature of their choice of funds and that their investment objectives are aligned with those of the Fund/s they select. The Allan Gray Equity, Balanced, Stable and rand-denominated offshore funds may inves