Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Technical Presentation (March 2020)
33 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s technical presentation, Mar 10, 2020
Slide 1: IRP 101 Webinar
IRP 101 Webinar March 10, 2020 1 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 2: What we are going to talk about today
Meet the Speakers What we are Integrated Resource Planning going to talk IRP 101 about today. Q&A Wrap up 2 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 3: Our Speakers
Maria Scheller Vice President Energy Markets, ICF Our Speakers Matthew Kalemba Principal Planning Analyst, Duke Energy 3 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 4: IRP Engagement: Upcoming Activity
IRP Engagement: Upcoming Activity ▪ IRP 101: March 10, Today’s webinar is being recorded, link to be provided later ▪ IRP Forum #1: March 17, Columbia, SC (in-person and remote available); registration deadline tomorrow, March 11 ▪ IRP Forum #2: April 16, Raleigh, NC (in-person and remote available)
Slide 5: What is an IRP and Why is it an Important Tool?
What is an IRP and Why is it an Important Tool? 5 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 6: What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)?
What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)? ▪ An Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) explains how an electric utility will meet the projected peak demand and energy requirements of its customers in a cost-effective, reliable manner. ▪ IRP’s balance multiple objectives including system reliability, environ
Slide 7: IRP Provides the Opportunities to Address Challenges and Guide Decision Making
IRP Provides the Opportunities to Address Challenges and Guide Decision Making ▪ IRP can provide answers needed to help address these challenges and guide decision making: ▪ How to minimize costs of meeting future growth while managing risks? ▪ What is the demand for electricity over the next 10, 20
Slide 8: Majority of States in the US Require an IRP Filing
Majority of States in the US Require an IRP Filing ▪ 39 states across the U.S. have requirements for filing IRP or long-term plans Source: 1) Integrated Resource Planning Slides (June 11, 2019), Regulatory Assistance Project; 2) ICF Analysis 8 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 9: What are the Defining Characteristics of an IRP?
What are the Defining Characteristics of an IRP? 9 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 10: Characteristics of an IRP
Characteristics of an IRP 2020->2030->2040 ▪ Forward looking ▪ Level playing field for all ▪ Living document ▪ Long-lived assets resource types ▪ Review and repeat ▪ Time to bring to market ▪ Fair assessments of demand ▪ Course correct and supply side resources; ▪ Customer adoption rates ability and
Slide 11: In-depth Modeling Simulates the Power System Operations Over Time
In-depth Modeling Simulates the Power System Operations Over Time ▪ Production cost models capture hourly, seasonal, and annual 140 Resources are dispatched complexities of actual power systems in merit order i.e. in order of lowest to highest dispatch cost. ▪ Expansion tools consider the fit of 120
Slide 12: What Components and Factors are Considered within an IRP?
What Components and Factors are Considered within an IRP? (i.e. What do We Need to Know in order to Plan) 12 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 13: Types of Input Data
Types of Input Data Inputs Source Fuel Price Forecast Forwards, Fundamental Forecast, Third Party Data Load Forecast Data driven from third party, Utility Data Supply-side Options Utility Data Reserves Requirements Utility Data, NERC Capital Cost Assumptions Public Sources – NREL; Third Party Data D
Slide 14: Components and Factors Influencing an IRP Analysis
Components and Factors Influencing an IRP Analysis IRP Process Demand Analysis Setting IRP Objectives Environment & Economy / Climate Forecast Goals Distribution System Analysis Integrated Supply- Integrated Identify Resource Need Resource side Resource Consumer Resource and Political Planning Willi
Slide 15: IRPs Provide the Flexibility to Assess Multiple Resource Portfolio Strategies
IRPs Provide the Flexibility to Assess Multiple Resource Portfolio Strategies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Reference load High load Low load Expected gas Expected gas High gas price price price Carbon High Carbon No Carbon Resource Portfolio Options Nuclear Retire upon Relicense Scenario 1 licen
Slide 16: What are the IRP Results and Outputs?
What are the IRP Results and Outputs? 16 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 17: IRPs Inform Decisions
IRPs Inform Decisions IPPs, Developers Customers • What will be the rate payer • Do attractive development impact? Financial Investors opportunities exist? • Will the IRP meet • Are plans sound in the face of sustainability goals set? risks? Utilities • Can resource alternatives be Regulators priori
Slide 18: Duke Energy IRP Overview
Duke Energy IRP Overview 18 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 19: Duke Energy's IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable, and Increasingly Clean
Duke Energy’s IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable, and Increasingly Clean ▪ These three pillars guide Duke Energy’s planning process, and are subject to state and federal regulatory and legislative requirements: ▪ State regulatory commissions Clean / Reliable Sustainable ▪ State legislation ▪ FERC: Fede
Slide 20: IRP Process Overview
IRP Process Overview Growth in ▪ Changes in Load Forecast Customer ▪ Impacts of Energy Efficiency (EE), INPUTS Consumption electrification and rooftop solar ▪ Plant Retirement Resource ▪ Purchase Power Contract Expiration Retirements MODELING • Production Cost ▪ Load Resource Balance • Resource Adeq
Slide 21: Carolinas IRP Development Process
Carolinas IRP Development Process ▪ DEP/DEC IRP Requirements ▪ With regulated service territories in two states, DEC and DEP each have a single plan for both NC and SC that addresses the individual considerations in both state jurisdictions. – Operations within the DEC and DEP systems are optimized
Slide 22: Key Themes from the 2019 IRP Update
Key Themes from the 2019 IRP Update ▪ Planning for New Generation ▪ Continued support for winter planning across DEC and DEP. ▪ Increased load forecast expectations, power plant retirements and expiring purchase contracts continue to drive the need for new generation in the early to mid 2020s. ▪ Div
Slide 23: Carolinas IRP Modeling – Meeting Demand
Carolinas IRP Modeling – Meeting Demand (An illustrative example) Summer demand generally Winter demand generally peaks around 4pm peaks around 7am The Carolinas experience a “second” peak in the evening Summer demand increases as customers return home as temperatures rise throughout the day ▪ The r
Slide 24: Carolinas IRP Modeling – Meeting Demand
Carolinas IRP Modeling – Meeting Demand (An illustrative example) DSM DSM Coal Coal Combustion Turbines (CT) Combustion Turbines (CT) Combined Cycle (CC) Combined Cycle (CC) Hydro Hydro Nuclear Nuclear ▪ The System Production Cost Model will dispatch resources to maintain reliability while meeting d
Slide 25: Carolinas IRP Modeling – Impacts of Solar
Carolinas IRP Modeling – Impacts of Solar (An illustrative example) Solar peak output Solar output is not generally falls available at the time between 12 and 1pm of peak customer demand in winter months Solar output and customer demand increase as sun rises Solar output and customer demand decrease
Slide 26: Carolinas IRP Modeling – Impacts of Solar
Carolinas IRP Modeling – Impacts of Solar (An illustrative example) Summer peak shifts with increasing solar ▪ Solar changes the demand profile that conventional and other generation needs to meet on an hourly basis during the daytime. ▪ Additional solar also contributes to shifting the peak generat
Slide 27: Future Considerations for the Comprehensive 2020 IRPs
Future Considerations for the Comprehensive 2020 IRPs ▪ Garner stakeholder input for Integrated System & Operations Planning (ISOP) and IRP processes ▪ Items on our list of future considerations ▪ Evaluate Accelerated Coal Retirements ▪ Update DEC and DEP Resource Adequacy Studies (Reserve Margin St
Slide 28: Questions?
Questions? 28 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 29: Thank you
Thank you For questions regarding this presentation, please contact: Maria Scheller Vice President, ICF Maria.Scheller@icf.com Matthew Kalemba Principal Planning Analyst, Duke Energy Matthew.Kalemba@duke-energy.com 29 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 30: Appendix
Appendix 30 ICF Corporate Overview
Slide 31: Carolinas IRP Modeling – Impacts of Solar
Carolinas IRP Modeling – Impacts of Solar DSM DSM Coal Coal Combustion Turbines (CT) Combustion Turbines (CT) Combined Cycle (CC) Combined Cycle (CC) Hydro Hydro Nuclear Nuclear ▪ As more solar is added to the system, the operational requirements of the generation fleet begins to change. ▪ However,
Slide 32: NC – Current and New Regulatory Requirements
NC – Current and New Regulatory Requirements NC R8-60 General Requirements* New 2020 IRP Requirements* • 15 year forecast of load, capacity and reserves New studies: • Comprehensive analysis of all resource options 1. Reliability Assessment Study (Resource Adequacy Study) • Assessment of Purchased P
Slide 33: SC – Act 62 and IRP Requirements
SC – Act 62 and IRP Requirements 2019 SC IRP ( historically, an IRP has not been a regulatory or legislative Act 62 legislatively mandates following to be included in 2020 requirement in SC, however, Duke chose to proactively submit) IRP* • Long-term forecast of utility’s sales and peak demand under