Atlas Arteria · ASX:ALX
Atlas Arteria — Macquarie Atlas Roads — Investor Presentation (March 2014)
73 slides from Atlas Arteria's investor presentation, Mar 3, 2014
Slide 1: Macquarie Atlas Roads March 2014 Investor Presentation
Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited Macquarie Atlas Roads International Limited ACN 141 075 201 EC43828 No. 1 Martin Place Telephone 612 8232 3333 26 Burnaby Street SYDNEY NSW 2000 Facsimile 612 8232 4713 Hamilton HM11 GPO Box 4294 Internet: www.macquarie.com/mqa BERMUDA SYDNEY NSW 1164 DX 10287 SSE AUSTR
Slide 2: Macquarie Atlas Roads Investor Presentation March 2014
Macquarie Atlas Roads Investor Presentation March 2014
Slide 3: Important notice and disclaimer
I Important t t notice ti and d disclaimer di l i Disclaimer Macquarie Atlas Roads (MQA) comprises Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited (ACN 141 075 201) (MARL) and Macquarie Atlas Roads International Limited (Registration No. 43828) (MARIL). Macquarie Fund Advisers Pty Limited (ACN 127 735 960) (AFSL 318
Slide 4: Important notice and disclaimer
I Important t t notice ti and d disclaimer di l i Japan These materials have been prepared solely for qualified institutional investors in Japan as defined under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act of Japan ( FIEA) . They do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in Japan and no regis
Slide 5: Contents
C t t Contents 1. Overview 4 2. APRR 14 3 3. Other Assets 33 4. Dividends 45 Appendix 51 PAGE 3
Slide 6: Overview
Overview
Slide 7: About MQA
Ab t MQA About An established global portfolio Macquarie Atlas Roads (MQA) is a global toll road operator and developer that was listed on the ASX on 25 January 2010 – Current market capitalisation: $1,466,563,9251 – ASX ranking: Top 200 MQA was created out of the restructure of Macquarie Infras
Slide 8: MQA portfolio
MQA portfolio tf li MQA’s toll road investments are located in France, UK, USA and Germany1 1 MQA owns various percentage stakes in these assets 1. assets. 1. MQA owns various percentage stakes in these assets. PAGE 6
Slide 9: 2013 snapshot
2013 snapshot h t Growth in portfolio traffic, revenue and EBITDA levels 2013 Statutory results summary Profit P fit ffrom continuing ti i operations: ti A$41 A$41.9m 9 (2012 (2012: A$58 A$58.1m 1 Portfolio Results loss) Profit after income tax: A$1,423.5m (2012: A$124.4m loss) Traffic and reven
Slide 10: MQA structure
MQA structure t t MQA's structure is integral to its strategy MQA has no corporate level debt and A$17.7m in available cash1 Each asset is in a separate holding company structure All asset level debt is project finance, with no recourse to MQA or any other portfolio asset There are no cross-default
Slide 11: Strategy & objectives
MQA Strategy & objectives MQA to deliver and grow dividends Manage debt maturities over time De-risk assets Pursue value growth through steps towards g dividends or sale securing Deliver growth in the existing portfolio Holding Structure I di id l assett risk Individual i k quarantined ti d ffrom re
Slide 12: Strategy & objectives (cont'd)
St t Strategy & objectives bj ti ((cont’d) t’d) Portfolio strategy will focus on enhancing the value of APRR (France) and Dulles Greenway (USA) – APRR is expected to continue to deliver semi-annual cash flows over its concession life – Dulles Greenway is expected to deliver cash flows in the mediu
Slide 13: MQA value considerations
MQA value l considerations id ti MQA is a vehicle for investment in APRR/Eiffarie and Dulles Greenway with additional value from other assets APRR + Dulles Greenway + Other Assets = MQA APRR/Eiffarie is MQA’s largest and most valuable asset – Expected to provide MQA with a long-term dividend strea
Slide 14: Governance
Governance MQA has majority independent Boards and independent Chairmen Base fee calculated quarterly on market capitalisation MQA structure Market capitalisation Base management fee1 Macquarie Up to A$1.0bn 1.75% plus Resources (Staff, premises, IT, etc) More than A$1.0bn 1.00% 100% MQA Perform
Slide 15: MQA performance
MQA performance f MQA has outperformed its Benchmark by 330% since listing1 MQA vs Benchmark Two performance fees have been calculated to date – 2010 performance fee: A$12 A$12.5m 5m $3.50 21.0 MQA Market Volume (m) (RHS) – 2011 performance fee: A$50.1m MQA (LHS) $3.00 18.0 These fees were payab
Slide 16: APRR
APRR
Slide 17: APRR/Eiffarie
APRR/Eiff i APRR/Eiffarie Concession 31 December 2032 (APRR, AREA) expiry 31 December 2060 (ADELAC) 31 December 2068 (Maurice Lemaire Tunnel) Tolling 2014 2014-18: 18: annual tariff increase of 85% of CPI (excl (excl. tobacco) + 0.37% for APRR and 85% of CPI (excl. tobacco) + 0.41% for AREA
Slide 18: APRR performance
APRR/Eiffarie APRR performance Growth maintained through economic cycles APRR EBITDA (€m)1 and France GDP growth (%)2 €1,750m 3.0% 1,475 €1,500m 1,399 1,428 2.0% 1,326 1,265 €1,250m 1,208 1,244 1.0% €1,000m -% 974 1,068 924 9413 €750m 841 888 (1.0%) €500m (2.0%) €250m ((3.0%)) €0m (4.0%) 2001 2003 2
Slide 19: APRR performance (cont'd)
APRR/Eiffarie APRR performance (cont’d) Revenue supported by toll increases implemented on 1 February 2013 12 months to 31 December 2013 Traffic: +0.8%; Revenue: +3.0%; EBITDA: +3.4% EBITDA Performance (€m)1 Quarterly Traffic Performance (VKTm) 7,000 68.4% 69.2% 70.0% 70.3% 68.0% 6,000 2 022 2,022
Slide 20: APRR traffic analysis
APRR/Eiffarie APRR traffic analysis 12 months to 31 December 2013 Revenue and traffic analysis 2013 – LV traffic up 0.9% vs pcp – HV traffic up 0.6% vs pcp 15% Light vehicle traffic positive during all four 33% quarters Toll Traffic LV Revenue Heavy vehicle traffic growth trending upwards HV 67%
Slide 21: APRR traffic – light vehicles
APRR/Eiffarie APRR traffic – light vehicles Light g vehicle traffic has outperformed p GDP Contribution from growth of real household disposable income APRR Light Vehicles and Economic Indicators1,2 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LV Traffic GDP Disposable Income
Slide 22: APRR traffic – heavy vehicles
APRR/Eiffarie APRR traffic – heavy vehicles Heavy y vehicles correlated to French manufacturing g Foreign trade volumes an additional factor APRR Heavy Vehicles and Economic Indicators1,2 110 100 90 80 70 60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 HV Traffic Imports Manufacturing 1. Moving 12 m
Slide 23: French economy
APRR/Eiffarie French economy French economic outlook improving but fragile France GDP forecasts1 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (0.5%) Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 1. International Monetary Fund (IMF). PAGE 21
Slide 24: APRR operations
APRR/Eiffarie APRR operations Operating expenses (ex operating taxes) broadly flat since 2006 Headcount (FTE) at 31 December 2013 was 3,601 (2012: 3,646, 2011: 3,722) €800m 80.0% 68 4% 68.4% 69 2% 69.2% 70.0% 70.3% 67.0% 67 8% 67.8% 68 0% 68.0% 64.0% €600m 60.0% 232 229 236 240 2641 258 2752 231 €40
Slide 25: Increase in APRR's profit
€300m €350m €400m €450m €500m Net profit 2011 395 APRR profit 17 Revenu ue Increase in APRR’s APRR/Eiffarie 6 Opex 6 t Operating taxes 7 D& &A, provision ns, other 36 Net interrest 4 Income tax t Ne et profit 2012 392 61 Revenu ue 2 Opex APRR s profit reflecting higher revenue and interest savings 1
Slide 26: APRR free cash flow
APRR/Eiffarie APRR free cash flow Financière Eiffarie distributions, distributions and therefore MQA dividends dividends, reflect only a portion of APRR free cash flow APRR consistently generates cash flow in excess of net profit. The excess is used to fund capex and debt repayments at the APRR le
Slide 27: APRR capital expenditure
APRR/Eiffarie APRR capital expenditure Since 2006, ~€3.15bn €3.15bn has been spent to grow, improve and maintain the network $600m $500m 24 81 $400m 65 45 159 $300m 187 343 44 303 27 54 69 215 240 $200m 75 171 168 165 104 123 66 139 $100m 100 110 122 115 102 115 108 78 94 93 57 $0m 2003 2004 2005 20
Slide 28: Ownership structure
APRR/Eiffarie Ownership structure Ownership Ownership structure June 2010 – Eiffarie acquired an additional 13.7% Other Macquarie MQA MEIF 1 interest in APRR, increasing its stake to 95.2% Managed Funds 38.87% 25.75% 35.38% December 2012 – compulsory acquisition of remaining minorities completed
Slide 29: 2012 Refinancing
APRR/Eiffarie 2012 Refinancing Successful outcome achieved against challenging backdrop Eiffarie debt reduction from €3.8bn to €2.8bn – APRR dividend of €1.0bn in January 2012 from accumulated retained earnings (incl. 2011 profit) €3.5bn €3 5bn bank facilities secured to replace debt at Eiffarie
Slide 30: Financing
APRR/Eiffarie Financing APRR well supported in bond markets 2013/14 APRR debt issuances – €300m floating rate notes issued (0.87% margin) due in 2016 – €500m EMTN issued due in 2020 (margin of 90bps over midmid-rate rate swaps) coupon of 2 2.25% 25% APRR Bonds: Mid-Yield to Maturity 6.0% 5.0% 2,76
Slide 31: APRR/Eiffarie liquidity
APRR/Eiffarie APRR/Eiffarie liquidity Strong liquidity position with manageable maturity profile Financing costs expected to trend lower – Potential to improve overall financing terms over time S&P upgraded APRRAPRR’s s credit rating to BBB (positive outlook) in December 2013 – Fitch: BBB+ (stab
Slide 32: APRR cash flow to MQA
APRR/Eiffarie APRR cash flow to MQA Potential to improve overall financing terms over time Simplified holding structure MQA Q HoldCo debt 19.44% of free cash flow – Margin 300bp (350bp Feb 2015) HoldCo swap until June 2018 Eiffarie – Cash sweep: 25% free cash flow1 ‒ Average of €3,368m swapped (75%
Slide 33: Management Contract
APRR/Eiffarie Management Contract APRR and AREA entered into new management contracts with the French State in early 2014 Capital expenditure Management contract capital expenditure of around €500m Average A total t t l annuall capex fforecastt off ~€320m €320 ((real) l) b between t 2014 2014-20
Slide 34: Looking forward
APRR/Eiffarie Looking forward Impact of land tax increase will vary with revenue. Stimulus package Potential for additional capex under government stimulus package in return for concession extensions European Commission determinations anticipated to be concluded during 2014 extensions. Land tax
Slide 35: Other Assets
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Slide 36: Dulles Greenway
D ll G Dulles Greenway Concession expiry 15 February 2056 Fixed toll increases until 2012 F From 2014 tto 2020 2020, escalate l t bby Tolling greater of CPI +1%, Real GDP or 2.8% By application to the SCC thereafter Ownership 50% estimated economic interest Length 22 km Located in Loud
Slide 37: Dulles Greenway performance
Dulles Greenway Performance YTD 2013 reflects emerging improvement in local economic conditions 12 months to 31 December 2013 – Traffic: +1.5%; Revenue: +3.5%; EBITDA: +1.0% Toll increases implemented on 21 January 2013 EBITDA lower due to higher operating expenses which include one off legal
Slide 38: Traffic corridor
Dulles Greenway Traffic corridor Dulles Greenwayy well p placed to p provide capacity p y as corridor develops p The Dulles Greenway has two key competitors – Route 7 and Waxpool Rd Competing roads have received considerable Dulles Greenway Corridor capacity capac ty upg upgrades ades ssince ce
Slide 39: Looking forward
Dulles Greenway Looking forward Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project expected to improve accessibility and further stimulate economic and demographic development in areas served 23 mile extension of existing Metrorail system Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project by Metropolitan Washington Airports Author
Slide 40: Corridor demographic factors
Dulles Greenway Corridor Demographic g p factors expected p to p progressively g y increase congestion g in corridor Dynamic Corridor (Population Growth p.a.%)1 3.0% 2.5% 2 0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% -% Loudoun County Fairfax Co./Fairfax Arlington County Washington D.C. City/Falls y Church 2010-15 2015-
Slide 41: Other developments
Dulles Greenway Other developments Dulles Greenway corridor Base traffic continues to show signs of emerging growth Urban development in Loudoun county continuing – positive for long term traffic trends Commonwealth of Virginia Commonwealth C lth off Vi Virginia i i will ill nott pursue a purc
Slide 42: Financing
Dulles Greenway Financing Debt 100% fixed rate bonds bonds, amortisation schedule locked in until 2056 No refinancing requirements Dulles Greenway Debt Maturity Profile (US$m) 700 250 Maturity profile for external debt as at 31 December 2013 (excl. future capitalised interest) Total future current/c
Slide 43: Chicago Skyway
Chi Chicago Sk Skyway Concession expiry 24 January 2104 Set schedule from 2005 to 2017 Tolling After 2017 2017, tolls can escalate annually by the greater of 2%, CPI, or nominal GDP per capita Ownership 22.5% (22.5% MIP; 55% Cintra) Length g 12.5km, majority j y elevated Chicago - third
Slide 44: Indiana Toll Road
I di Indiana T Tollll R Road d Concession expiry 29 June 2081 Tolls increase annually on 1 July by the greater of 2%,, % increase of the CPI index g or nominal GDP per capita Tolling State subsidised ‘toll freeze’ for passenger vehicles using ETC scheduled to remain in place until 2016 Ownersh
Slide 45: Warnow Tunnel
W Warnow Tunnel T l Concession expiry 15 September 2053 Tolling linked to pre-tax equity IRR – IRR <17%: % tolls mayy rise at a rate higher g than inflation Tolling – IRR 17%-25%: tolls linked to inflation – if IRR >25%: tolls remain fixed Toll increases subject to toll application audit by th L
Slide 46: M6 Toll
M6 T Tollll Concession expiry 31 January 2054 Tolling Market based tolling O Ownership hi 100%1 Length 43 km Bypasses the city of Birmingham and the M6 motorway, one of the most congested Location / Strategic motorways in the UK Attraction Significant industrial, housing and economic dev
Slide 47: Dividends
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Slide 48: Dividend framework
Di id d fframework Dividend k MQA declared its first dividend in March 2013 MQA will pass through Eiffarie distributions after addressing corporate requirements: – Meeting corporate expenses (including base and any performance fees paid in cash) – Maintaining gapprudent capital p reserve Cash fl
Slide 49: MQA dividend
MQA dividend di id d MQA 1H 2014 dividend guidance of 5.0 cents per security Subject to foreign exchange movements and unforeseen events Expect to declare in March and pay in early April 100% foreign dividend from MARIL1 Dividend reconciliation A$m March 2014 receipt from Financière Eiffarie ~
Slide 50: MQA dividend (cont'd)
MQA di dividend id d ((cont’d) t’d) MQA 1H 2014 dividend APRR pays a dividend out of 1H 2013 profit to Eiffarie during December 2013 Eiffarie calculates distribution based on residual cash after tax grouping and debt repayments as at 31 December 2013 MQA to receive Eiffarie distribution ~2.5 months
Slide 51: Cash flow: APRR to MQA shareholders
APRR/Eiffarie Cash flow: APRR to MQA shareholders Cash flow: APRR to MQA shareholders (€m) Eiffarie/Financière Eiffarie 2H 2013 APRR dividend A 213 add APRR tax instalments to FE B 120 add Other1 C 5 less Eiffarie net interest D (123) less FE tax payments/provisions E (38) Distributable cash F=A+B+C
Slide 52: MQA free cash flow
APRR/Eiffarie MQA free cash flow Cash flow: APRR to MQA shareholders FY 2013 APRR free cash flow (€m) 737 Eiffarie net interest (€m) (224) Eiffarie opex (€m) (1) Tax grouping (€m) 174 Consolidated free cash flow (€m) 686 MQA’s proportionate share in € (19.44%) (€m) 133 MQA’s proportionate share in A
Slide 53: Appendix
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Slide 54: Register Analysis
R i t A Register Analysis l i 1 Retail 8% Other Macquarie 2 Foreign 21%2 Institutions 14% Lazard 13% Other Australian Institutions 44% 1. Register data as at 31 January 2014. Substantial notices as of 26 February 2014. For substantial notices prior to 10 September 2013, the % of issued securities sh
Slide 55: MQA statutory accounts
MQA statutory t t t accounts t Accounting g changes g flagged gg in June 2013 ASX release Cessation of hedge accounting for M6 Toll swaps (in late April) and deconsolidation of the M6 Toll group (in early June) have resulted in significant one-off items in the statutory accounts Deconsolidation of M
Slide 56: Consolidated profit & loss account
Consolidated profit & loss account Statutory accounts – year ended 31 December 2013 Non- MQA Total MQA Total MQA controlled year to year to A$m Corporate M6 Toll assets 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 12 Revenue 0.4 - - 0.4 0.4 Management fees (20.0) - - (20.0) (14.8) Other operating expenses (3.1) - - (3.1) (2.9)
Slide 57: Consolidated balance sheet
Consolidated balance sheet Statutory accounts – as at 31 December 2013 Non- MQA Total MQA Total MQA controlled as at as at A$m Corporate M6 Toll assets 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 12 Current assets 19.6 - - 19.6 62.4 Investments in associates - - 862.7 862.7 702.8 Property, plant and equipment - - - - 746.7 To
Slide 58: MQA cash flow summary
MQA cash h flflow summary Available cash A$m Distributions from Financière Eiffarie (FE) of €14.6m Opening balance – 1 January 2013 13.7 in March and €21.1m in September 2013 Distributions from assets 48.8 US ttax refund f d 31 3.1 US$3.2m tax refund in January 2013 in respect of US Interest on
Slide 59: Reconciliation
Reconciliation Cash flow and cash balance Y Year ended d d Y Year ended d d A$m 31 Dec 2013 31 Dec 2012 Net statutory operating cash flows 10.9 45.3 M6 Toll related adjustment ((28.3)) ((63.0)) MQA corporate level adjustments: Proceeds from investments 48.3 10.0 Other items 0.0 2.4 Net operating cas
Slide 60: Statutory accounts vs Management Information Report (MIR)
Statutory accounts vs M Management t Information I f ti Report R t (MIR) Statutory result for the period Proportionally consolidated financial performance M6 Toll results from 1 January 2013 to 4 June 2013 are shown as Aggregation of operating results of proportionate interests in all toll road deco
Slide 61: Proportionately consolidated performance
Proportionately consolidated performance f Actual Pro Forma Actual Year ended Year ended Change vs Year ended A$m 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 121 2 pcp 31 Dec 12² Operating revenue 682.9 659.1 3.6% 590.8 Operating expenses (193.2) (185.9) 3.9% (166.2) EBITDA from road assets 489.7 473.3 3.5% 424.6 EBITDA margi
Slide 62: Proportionate EBITDA – by asset
P Proportionate ti t EBITDA – by b assett Actual Proportionate EBITDA for year ended 31 December 2013 Dulles Chicago Indiana Toll Warnow Total A$m APRR1 Greenway Skyway Road Tunnel Operating revenue 563.0 38.8 18.7 53.5 8.8 682.9 Operating expenses (167.5) (8.3) (2.1) (12.2) (3.0) (193.2) EBITDA fro
Slide 63: Traffic and toll revenue performance
T ffi and Traffic d toll t ll revenue performance f Year to Year to Change vs Quarter vs pcp Asset 2013 2012 pcp Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 APRR Light Vehicle VKT (millions) 18,126 17,971 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 2.1% Heavy Vehicle VKT (millions) 3 190 3,190 3 172 3,172 0 6% 0.6% (3.2%) (3 2%) 0.1% 0 1%
Slide 64: Debt maturity profile of assets
D bt maturity Debt t it profile fil off assets t As at 31 December 131 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+ APRR/Eiffarie €m 865.3 1,344.7 1,250.3 4,018.8 1,211.0 579.2 79.4 64.4 125.7 27.8 Dulles Greenway US$m 54.6 54.9 52.3 49.4 38.0 36.4 19.2 22.3 38.3 654.0 Chicago Skyway US$m 19.1
Slide 65: Asset debt metrics
A Asset t debt d bt metrics ti 1 Net Debt/ EBITDA/ As at 31 Dec 13 Gross Debt Cash Net Debt EBITDA Interest DSCR Lock-Up Hedging APRR/Eiffarie2 €m 9,948.1 774.6 9,173.5 6.22x n/a 1.98x 1.60x 99.8% − APRR €m 7,320.3 523.3 6,797.0 4.61x 4.53x n/a n/a n/a − Eiffarie €m 2,627.8 251.3 2,376.5 n/a n/a 2.5
Slide 66: Asset debt ratings
A Asset t debt d bt ratings ti Rating Rating Agency Rating since1 APRR2 BBB Standard and Poor’s Poor s December 2013 BBB+ Fitch October 2012 Dulles Greenway3 BBB- Standard and Poor’s September 2009 Ba2 Moody’s December 2013 BB+ Fitch April 2013 Chicago Skyway4 AA- Standard and Poor’s November 2011 A
Slide 67: Foreign exchange rates
F i exchange Foreign h rates t Spot foreign exchange rates As at 31 December 13 Euro 0.6482 Pound Sterling 0.5391 United States Dollar 0.8933 The spot exchange rates in this table are the exchange rates that have been applied to the translations of proportionate net debt as at 31 December 2013. Quar
Slide 68: Eiffarie term loan facility – key terms
APRR/Eiffarie Eiffarie term loan facility – key terms Item Terms Facility amount €2.765bn y Maturity Februaryy 2017 Margin 300bps Step-up Year 4: 50bps Year 5: 50bps Interest period Six months Cash sweep Years 1–3: 25% Year 4: 75% Year 5: 100% Subject to a minimum cash sweep − Details can be found
Slide 69: Eiffarie minimum cash sweep
APRR/Eiffarie Eiffarie minimum cash sweep Year Period end Minimum cash sweep (€m) 2012 June 14 December 30 2013 June 47 December 44 2014 June 53 December 46 2015 0 5 June Ju e 161 6 December 153 2016 June 243 December 114 PAGE 67
Slide 70: APRR revolving credit facility – key terms
APRR/Eiffarie APRR revolving credit facility – key terms Item Terms Facility amount €0.720bn Maturity y Februaryy 2017 Margin 150bps Step-up 50bps if APRR is rated non-investment grade by S&P, Moody’s or Fitch Utilisation fee 50bps p.a. on total drawn facility amount Commitment fee 35% of margin Fin
Slide 71: Macro factors: Fuel deliveries
Macro factors Fuel deliveries Fuel consumption p trends between France,, US and UK have diverged g since 2008 Motor vehicle fuel deliveries1 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90 0 90.0 85.0 80.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 US UK France Sources France: Union Française des Industries Pétrol
Slide 72: Macro factors: Real wages
Macro factors Real wages UK consumer p purchasing gppower has steadily y declined since 2008 Real wages1 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 France US (Private) UK (CPI Adj.) UK (RPI Adj.) Sources France: INSEE US: US Bureau of Labour Statistics UK: UK O
Slide 73: European economic sentiment indicator
APRR/Eiffarie European economic sentiment indicator European p economic sentiment has continued its upward p trend since late 2012 IMF projects French GDP to grow by 0.9% in 20141 European Economic Sentiment Indicator2,3 120 HGV decline commences 110 100 90 80 Improving HGV outlook 70 60 1990 1992 1
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