ASML Holding NV · EURONEXT:ASML
ASML Holding NV — Credit Suisse conference (May 2009)
30 slides from ASML Holding NV's conference presentation, May 6, 2009
Slide 1: Credit Suisse conference
Credit Suisse conference Franki D’Hoore Director European Investor Relations May 6, 2009 / Slide 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average sales pric
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda z Market z ASML fundamentals intact z Strategy for the future z Business summary z Outlook and summary / Slide 3
Slide 4: Market
Market / Slide 4
Slide 5: Market trends
Market trends z Semiconductor equipment demand collapsed in Q1 as customers adjusted production capacity and semiconductor inventory Memory z Capacity utilization at NAND increased as of February, driven by recovering demand while DRAM utilization falls z Spot and contract prices improve for NAND an
Slide 6: All DRAM manufacturers showed negative operating margins in Q4 2008
All DRAM manufacturers showed negative operating margins in Q4 2008 Operating Margins of main DRAM Manufacturers (Q1/06 - Q4/08) 60% 40% Operating Margin [% of Sales] 20% Most advanced 0% node in Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 4Q08 Q4/08: -20% 5x nm Samsung 5x nm -40% Hynix M
Slide 7: DRAM Gb spot price went back to profitable territory for xnm manufacturers
DRAM 1 Gb spot price went back to profitable territory for 5xnm manufacturers, driven by supply cut-backs MAIN DRAM SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/2008 - 2009YTD) 2.4 512Mb DDR2 667 SPOT PRICE 2.1 512Mb DDR2 667 CONTRACT PRICE 1Gb DDR2 667 SPOT PRICE 1.8 1Gb DDR2 667 CONTRACT PRICE 1.5 300 mm cash-costs
Slide 8: NAND MLC Gb mainstream ASPs stabilized above cash-costs
NAND MLC 16 Gb mainstream ASPs stabilized above cash-costs Larger premium paid for high-performance SLC IC’s MAIN NAND SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/2008 - 2009YTD) 18 17 16 15 14 13 16Gb NAND SLC SPOT PRICE 12 Chip ASP [$US] 16Gb NAND SLC CONTRACT PRICE 11 10 16Gb NAND MLC SPOT PRICE 300 mm cash-costs
Slide 9: Factory utilization of foundries hit bottom
Factory utilization of foundries hit bottom but well below the trigger point for capacity buys Foundry Top-4 Utilization Performance ASML tool utilization [%] STEPPER units SCANNER units TWINSCAN units 2000 STEPPERS SCANNERS TWINSCAN 1800 1600 1400 Measured ASML systems [units] 1200 1000 May-08 Nov-
Slide 10: Strategy for the future
Strategy for the future / Slide 10
Slide 11: Technology developments continue in spite of current world wide crisis
Technology developments continue in spite of current world wide crisis Logic / SRAM 200 Resolution/half pitch, "Shrink" [nm] 100 80 Logic 60 6 Transistor SRAM Cell DRAM NAND Flash k1 0.40 ~ 0.44 50 40 30 DRAM 20 NAND k1 0.30 ~ 0.35 k1 0.27 ~ 0.30 1/1/04 1/1/05 1/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/02 1/1/
Slide 12: Lithography total market growth opportunity
Lithography total market growth opportunity Historical trends projected WW Litho Demand Simulation (2006 - 2015) : Factual until 2008 + • Semiconductor IC trend-based simulation forecast for 2009 unit growth 11000 Lithography System Revenue [Mio. €] 10000 continues at 9% per year 9000 8000 • Moore’s
Slide 13: Bottom-up scenario: Four engines of growth
Bottom-up scenario: Four engines of growth Even when assuming slow chip unit growth of 4% (due to Moore’s Law slowdown and slower electronics consumption in the West) More DRAM NAND/DRAM penetration rises to 10% of in expanding hard disk drives storage capacity, versus 7% consumer in slow-down scena
Slide 14: Bottoms-up scenario: significant litho demand indicated
Bottoms-up scenario: significant litho demand indicated Conservative scenario (4% unit growth) + emerging growth markets Worldwide litho demand simulation Factual until 2008 + NAND in servers IC trend-based simulation forecast for 2009 (PCRAM) 11000 Lithography System Revenue [Mio. €] 10000 More DRA
Slide 15: ASML confirms its strategy
ASML confirms its strategy z The lithography market offers significant growth potential; the company target of EUR 5 billion in annual revenues is still achievable, timing depending on macro economic circumstances z ASML key success factor is unmatched R&D innovation which will remain unaffected in
Slide 16: ASML fundamentals intact
ASML fundamentals intact / Slide 16
Slide 17: Cash flow positively impacted by working capital reduction and cost structure improvements
Cash flow positively impacted by working capital reduction and cost structure improvements z Working capital reduced by more than € 300 million (excl cash & cash equivalents) z Account receivables down by € 172 million z Current tax assets decreased by € 88 million z Inventories reduced by € 62 mill
Slide 18: Balance sheet position secured
Balance sheet position secured z Cash position € 1.2 billion within company target of € 1.0 – 1.5 billion z Standby facility € 500 million available until 2012 z € 600 million bond due not until 2017 z Secured additional credit facility of € 200 million with the European Investment Bank 2,500 2,000
Slide 19: Committed to R&D, new product introduction on track
Committed to R&D New product introduction on track z Successful cost cutting in R&D through efficiency improvements z Continued investment in strategically important development programs to ensure timely introduction of next node production capability z Proved EUV imaging with the first full field 2
Slide 20: TWINSCAN NXT - improved overlay and productivity
TWINSCAN NXT - improved overlay and productivity Suitable for double patterning 32 nm and beyond • Platform capability >200 wafers per hour • Excellent overlay shown • during SPIE x, y : 1.9nm, 1.8nm x, y : 1.6nm, 1.7nm overlay overlay 99.7% 99.7% x: 1.9 nm x: 1.6 nm 5 nm y: 1.8 nm 5 nm y: 1.7 nm /
Slide 21: EUV pre-production systems ready in 2010
EUV pre-production systems ready in 2010 First full field 28 nm dense lines imaged Sub-40nm dense line resolution 22.5x15mm2 field size 28nm 1:1 LS 35 Wafer CDU H V 3σ (nm) 40 1.5 1.4 32 1.5 1.6 30 2.1 1.8 28 2.8 2.2 30 32nm Avg. 31.6nm 25 28nm 3σ=2.2nm Resist: Shin-Etsu SEVR-40 Good wafer CD unifor
Slide 22: Business summary
Business summary / Slide 22
Slide 23: Total net sales M€
Total net sales M€ 4500 4000 3,768 3,582 3500 955 3000 1053 2,954 2,529 494 Q4 Net sales 2,465 2500 Q3 548 934 785 697 2000 958 Q2 1,543 533 1500 Q1 611 930 844 526 763 942 1000 370 616 500 329 949 919 685 629 318 453 184 0 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007* 2008 2009 * 2006 and 2007 numbers are adjusted re
Slide 24: Key financial trends 2008 – 2009
Key financial trends 2008 – 2009 Consolidated statement of operations M€ Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Net Sales 919 844 696 494 184 Gross profit 374 337 265 39 12 Gross margin % 40.6% 40.0% 38.1% 7.9% 6.7% R&D 129 130 130 127 118 SG&A 57 56 52 47 41 Income from operations 188 151 83 (135) (147) Inc
Slide 25: Backlog: value and litho units
Backlog value M€ 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Jan 03 Jul 03 / Slide 25 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Backlog value Jul 06 Backlog: value and litho units Jan 07 Systems Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Backlog units
Slide 26: Backlog lithography in value per Mar 29, 2009
Backlog lithography in value per Mar 29, 2009 Total value M€ 853 Technology KrF 6% i-Line 1% ArF dry 7% Region ArF End-use immersion 86% Japan 27% USA Memory 26% China 16% 61% IDM 27% Korea 8% Taiwan 9% Foundry Singapore 9% Europe 5% 12% Numbers have been rounded for readers’ convenience / Slide 26
Slide 27: Outlook and summary
Outlook and summary / Slide 27
Slide 28: Q2 2009 outlook
Q2 2009 outlook z ASML expects net sales between € 210 - 230 million z Gross margin expected at about 9% reflecting very low coverage of fixed costs z R&D is expected at € 118 million net of credit z SG&A is expected at € 41 million z Recent immersion orders and current quote activity give us comfor
Slide 29: Summary
Summary z First signs of technology purchases pick-up from current very low run rate are now visible z These technology purchases could translate into ASML revenue levels in support of technology transitions between € 400 and € 500 million per quarter within H2 2009 z ASML plans for “cash from opera
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