Yara International Asa · OSL:YAR
Yara International Asa — Danske Bank lunch presentation (September 2025)
13 slides from Yara International Asa's conference presentation, Sep 4, 2025
Slide 1: Market update
Market update Dag Tore Mo Head of Market Intelligence Danske Bank Oslo, 4 September 2025
Slide 2: Urea prices high outside China – demand driven
Urea prices high outside China – demand driven – logical with short-term volatility 550 500 450 USD/ton 400 350 300 250 200 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Egypt(Europe)
Slide 3: European natural gas (TTF) – low current impact on upgraded N prices
European natural gas (TTF ) – low current impact on upgraded N prices
Slide 4: Ammonia to urea upgrading margin – fob Arab Gulf
Ammonia to urea upgrading margin – fob Arab Gulf – most value is on upgrading ammonia, not producing it (right now) USD/mt 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 -50 Urea – ( 0.6 * Ammonia +15 ) -100
Slide 5: Largest urea exporters in 2023
10 largest urea exporters in 2023 Million tons urea 9.0 8.1 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.6 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.0 Qatar Oman Nigeria Egypt Russia China Iran Algeria Saudi Arabia Malaysia 2022 2023 Source: IFA annual statistics
Slide 6: Urea export from China
Urea export from China – on its way to 4 million tons? 4500 4000 2023 2024 2025 3500 3000 2500 kt product 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Product code: 31021000
Slide 7: Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us
Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us Global urea capacity additions ex. China 1,2 (million mt) India Russia Iran Algeria USA Nigeria Australia Others Uncertain completion year for several projects 6.7 between 2026 and 2029 with differing views from 5.9 publications. 5.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 3
Slide 8: India: strong sales more than offset improved production
India: strong sales more than offset improved production Numbers are estimates. Source: Argus
Slide 9: Grain inventories outside China, forecast increased corn stocks
Grain inventories outside China, forecast is for increased corn stocks during 2025/26 (July–June) Grain stocks – excluding China Days of consumption in stock – excluding China Mill. tonnes Days 360 66 64 350 Aug 62 340 Jul 60 330 58 56 320 54 310 52 300 50 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25E 26F 16 17 18
Slide 10: Grain prices
10 Grain prices Corn forward price Dec 25 (USc/bu): Wheat forward price Dec 25 (Usc/bu):
Slide 11: Cereal index/urea index – grain farmers exposed to expensive N and P
Cereal index/urea index – grain farmers exposed to expensive N and P relative to their revenue Index 1.4 1.3 Urea more affordable (increased application rate) 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Urea less affordable 0.6 (reduced application rate) 0.5 0.4 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan
Slide 12: Phosphate markets very tight, phosphate rock more competitive
Phosphate markets very tight, the raw material phosphate rock more competitive 12
Slide 13: Knowledge grows
Knogyledge grows
Yara International — Danske Bank lunch presentation (September 2025) on 6ix