Agilon Health, Inc. · NYSE:AGL
Agilon Health — Corporate Update (January 2024)
12 slides from Agilon Health's corporate update, Jan 5, 2024
Slide 1: Guidance Update January 2024
Guidance Update January 2024 Copyright © 2023 agilon health. Confidential internal document containing proprietary information. Do not distribute.
Slide 2: Disclaimers and Forward-Looking Statements
2 Disclaimers and Forward-Looking Statements FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND OTHER INFORMATION Statements in this presentation that are not historical factual statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of th
Slide 3: Key Updates
3 Key Updates Lowering 2023 guidance due to higher costs and increased utilization assumptions ▪ Updated 2023 guidance for Medical Margin to $340M-$360M and Adjusted EBITDA to loss of $69M-$55M. ▪ Higher costs occurred in Q2-Q4 and became visible in mid-December during the November close process giv
Slide 4: Medical Margin Guidance Bridge for Full Year 2023
4 $535M-560M $340M-360M $365M-385M How Medical Margin Differed From Expectations $110M lower than previous view of ($13M) on 11/4/23: • $90M in higher costs, with $41M from 4Q, $31M from 3Q, $18M from 2Q. • $20M in negative revenue revision Medical Margin Guidance Bridge for Full Year 2023 $3M highe
Slide 5: Utilization Accelerated Across Key Categories During 2023
5 Utilization Accelerated Across Key Categories During 2023 Notes: Data based on same-geography trends in both periods; 2023 trend estimate uses payor data through August with IBNR estimate; 2022 trend estimate uses payor data for full year 2.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 3.7% 0.1% -2.6% 8.0% 6.7% 7.3% 2022 Uti
Slide 6: Despite 2023 Headwinds, Increasing Value for PCPs and agilon
6 Despite 2023 Headwinds, Increasing Value for PCPs and agilon agilon Year 2+ Partnership Growth (Medicare Advantage + ACO REACH) Success of Year 2+ Markets Drives Model Medical Margin (MA + REACH) Gross Profit (MA + REACH) ▪ Year 2+ markets at 4+ Stars ▪ IP medical utilization trend (2.6%) ▪ >$200M
Slide 7: Actions to Improve Performance, Balance Risk Sharing, and Enhance Predictability
Enhancing processes and systems to address market dynamics and drive accelerated performance in 2024 and beyond Actions to Improve Performance, Balance Risk Sharing, and Enhance Predictability Action Timing Details / Milestones Operating Efficiency Executed for 2024 ▪ Accelerated platform support ef
Slide 8: Mature Market Challenges and Action Plan
($400) ($300) ($200) ($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 0 50 100 150 200 2022 Mature Market Challenges and Action Plan Cost Trend Drivers & Challenges +1.3% +2.4% -1.1% +7.6% 6.0% 1.6% 2023 Medical Claims Non-Medical (Supplemental Benefits) Total Trend ▪ High PCP variability driven by new doctors ▪ OP su
Slide 9: Guidance Update for 2023
Guidance Update for 2023 Note: We have not reconciled guidance for Medical Margin to Gross Profit or Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss), the most comparable GAAP measures, and have not provided forward-looking guidance for net income (loss) in each case because of the uncertainty around certain it
Slide 10: Initial Outlook for 2024
10 Initial Outlook for 2024 Note: We have not reconciled guidance for Medical Margin to Gross Profit or Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss), the most comparable GAAP measures, and have not provided forward-looking guidance for net income (loss) in each case because of the uncertainty around certain
Slide 11: 2024 Medical Margin Bridge
11 2024 Medical Margin Bridge Note: We have not reconciled guidance for Medical Margin to Gross Profit or Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss), the most comparable GAAP measures, and have not provided forward-looking guidance for net income (loss) in each case because of the uncertainty around certa
Slide 12: Conclusion
12 Conclusion • Demand from PCPs is structurally higher • agilon platform driving more value to PCPs, patients, and payors • Accelerating membership growth in 2023-2024 • Variability in healthcare delivery system creates opportunity Clear Long-term Value OpportunityNear-term Headwinds • Forecasting