Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated · NYSE:DBD
Diebold Nixdorf — Investor Presentation (May 2023)
41 slides from Diebold Nixdorf's investor presentation, May 30, 2023
Slide 1: Diebold Nixdorf Investor Presentation May 2023
Exhibit 99.1 Diebold Nixdorf Investor Presentation May 2023
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents I. Situation Overview 3 II. Business Plan Overview 15 III. Transaction Structure 29 IV. Appendix 33 2
Slide 3: I. Situation Overview
I. Situation Overview 3
Slide 4: Adjusted EBITDA Forecast Bridge
Adjusted EBITDA Forecast Bridge Adjusted EBITDA Forecast Bridge: October Cleansing Model to 2023 Risk-Adjusted Forecast ($ in millions) ~38% of Adj. ($15) ($14) EBITDA ($17) ~39% of Adj. ($1) ($11) occurs in Q4 ($29) EBITDA $12 $2 $6 occurs in Q4 ($54) ~30% of Adj. EBITDA $470 occurs in Q4 $440 $402
Slide 5: Actual 1Q 2023 Results vs. R&O / Base Forecasts
Actual 1Q 2023 Results vs. R&O / Base Forecasts § Actual 1Q 2023 Gross Order Entry, Revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA exceeded both the Base and R&O forecasts Cleansing ($ in millions) 1 § Order Entry: Q1 order entry came in $44M above the Base FY23 Q1 Delta Model Case Forecast. Banking demand continues
Slide 6: Actual March 2023 Results vs. Risk-Adjusted / Base Forecasts
Actual March 2023 Results vs. Risk-Adjusted / Base Forecasts § The below outlines Diebold’s March 2023 Actual performance versus its Base and Risk-Adjusted Cases ($ in millions) March 2023 Delta R&O Base Actual R&O Case Base Case Revenue $324 $354 $377 $54 $24 Services 185 185 194 9 9 Products 139 1
Slide 7: Actual April 2023 Results vs. Risk-Adjusted / Base Forecasts
Actual April 2023 Results vs. Risk-Adjusted / Base Forecasts § The below outlines Diebold’s April 2023 Actual performance versus its Base and Risk-Adjusted Cases ($ in millions) April 2023 Delta R&O Base Actual R&O Case Base Case Revenue $267 $260 $263 ($4) $3 Services 170 170 169 (0) (1) Products 9
Slide 8: Actual 1Q23 Liquidity vs. December Transaction Forecast
Actual 1Q23 Liquidity vs. December Transaction Forecast § Through 1Q23, Diebold’s liquidity is approximately $71 million lower than projected by the December Through 1Q23, DBD’s Transaction forecast ($126 million lower excluding proceeds from the March 2023 FILO transaction) liquidity position has d
Slide 9: Liquidity Forecast: Unlevered Free Cash Flow Bridge
Liquidity Forecast: Unlevered Free Cash Flow Bridge § As Diebold approaches its seasonal liquidity trough in September, it will continue to burn cash on an Given the seasonality unlevered basis as it builds working capital and simultaneously seeks to manage supplier relationships of Diebold’s busine
Slide 10: Liquidity Forecast: Incremental Liquidity Requirement
Liquidity Forecast: Incremental Liquidity Requirement (1) § Diebold’s Risk-Adjusted Forecast projects a ($190) million trough cash shortfall in September 2023, Incremental liquidity implying a total incremental operating liquidity need of at least $390 million prior to transaction costs will ensure
Slide 11: Q1 Shipment Update and Key Supply Chain Indicators
Q1 Shipment Update and Key Supply Chain Indicators § Q1 shipments and production plan provide support for Base Case Forecast Q1 ATM shipments and Q2 Scheduled Orders in-line with the Base ATM Units – Shipment Plan Self Checkout Units – Shipment Plan Case Forecast April 2023 View April 2023 View 11.0
Slide 12: North America Banking: April Scheduled Unit Install Summary
North America Banking: April Scheduled Unit Install Summary § Diebold added 394 units to its Base Case April target of 923 units following a 1Q forecast miss and, as Diebold has already th of April 17 , is only 109 units from filling its Revised April Target of 1,317 units secured ~130% of Base Case
Slide 13: North America Banking: 2Q Scheduled Unit Install Summary
North America Banking: 2Q Scheduled Unit Install Summary § Current scheduling threshold favorable to similar 1Q position (77% as of January which should help de- Diebold has already risk Base Case Forecast) secured ~105% of Base Case 2Q Installation 2Q 2023 Revised 2Q Target Walk (ATM Units) Target
Slide 14: May 2023 Capital Structure Summary
May 2023 Capital Structure Summary Face Value Market Value ($ and shares in millions) The December x2023E x2023E Transaction extended Tranche $ EBITDA Coupon Maturity Price Amount EBITDA maturities; however, ABL / Superpriority Debt Diebold’s revised ABL Facility $150 S + 3.00% 7/20/2026 N/A $150 FI
Slide 15: II. Business Plan Overview
II.Business Plan Overview 15
Slide 16: 2023 Forecast Process Flow Chart
2023 Forecast Process Flow Chart Raw Materials Forecast Supply Chain Org Production Conducted by Ops Team Interfaces with Forecasting Based on Assumed Region / Segment Begins at Plant Configurations in the and Plant to Finalize Level Production Plan Production Forecast Demand Segment Forecasts Banki
Slide 17: Key Base Case Assumptions
Key Base Case Assumptions While Diebold will 2023 2024 2025-2028 aggressively analyze § Bottoms-up product revenue § 2.4% annual revenue growth § 2.4% annual revenue growth financial and build by customer through combination of: through combination of: Revenue § Top-down service revenue – 2% service
Slide 18: 2023: Revised Forecast Summary
2023: Revised Forecast Summary § Relative to the October Cleansing Materials, Diebold’s Base Case and Risk-Adjusted Forecasts represent a more rigorous, bottoms- up approach to projecting Diebold’s P&L and cash flow profile Revenue Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions) ($ in millions) $470 $3,857 $3,799 $
Slide 19: 2023 Base Case Forecast Consolidated Summary P&L to FCF
2023 Base Case Forecast Consolidated Summary P&L to FCF § Summary monthly output (condense where possible) ($ in millions) 1Q 2023 2Q 2023 3Q 2023 4Q 2023 2023 Total Banking Product Revenue $206 $266 $285 $360 $1,118 Services Revenue 371 389 404 410 1,574 Subtotal Banking Revenue $577 $655 $689 $770
Slide 20: Key Working Capital Metrics (Base Case Forecast)
Key Working Capital Metrics (Base Case Forecast) § Despite projected profitability, Diebold entered 2023 with a stretched working capital position. The Base Case is designed to enable Diebold to begin right-sizing its working capital base to best-position Diebold vis-à-vis customers and vendors soon
Slide 21: Summary of 2023 Risks and Opportunities
Summary of 2023 Risks and Opportunities § Amidst challenging idiosyncratic factors and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, Diebold has taken steps to ensure that its internal forecast appropriately accounts for potential risks and opportunities to its Base Case Forecast, as summarized below § Th
Slide 22: 2023 Risk-Adjusted Forecast
2023 Risk-Adjusted Forecast § While full-year performance has been revised lower relative to the October Cleansing Model, Diebold is positioned to achieve increasingly stronger performance through the course of 2023 – Significant improvement relative to 2022, with revenue and EBITDA growing ~5% and
Slide 23: 2023: Risk-Adjusted Forecast (cont'd)
2023: Risk-Adjusted Forecast (cont’d) Adjusted EBITDA to FCF ($ in millions) 1Q 2023 2Q 2023 3Q 2023 4Q 2023 2023 Total Adjusted EBITDA $40 $81 $93 $135 $349 Accounts Receivable 35 (47) (7) 24 6 Inventory (91) (52) (2) 107 (38) Accounts Payable 14 (30) (49) (9) (74) Deferred Revenue (13) (70) (68) 3
Slide 24: Key Working Capital Metrics (Risk-Adjusted Forecast)
Key Working Capital Metrics (Risk-Adjusted Forecast) § Despite projected profitability, Diebold entered 2023 with a stretched working capital position. The Risk-Adjusted Forecast is designed to enable Diebold to begin right-sizing its working capital base to best-position Diebold vis-à-vis customers
Slide 25: 2024 Base Case Forecast Consolidated Summary P&L to FCF
2024 Base Case Forecast Consolidated Summary P&L to FCF § Summary monthly output (condense where possible) ($ in millions) 1Q 2024 2Q 2024 3Q 2024 4Q 2024 2024 Total Banking Product Revenue $221 $276 $299 $367 $1,162 Services Revenue 380 396 397 413 1,587 Subtotal Banking Revenue $601 $672 $696 $780
Slide 26: 2024 & Long-Term Base Case Forecast
2024 & Long-Term Base Case Forecast § Even with modest growth rates and margin expansion, unlevered free cash flow conversion increases dramatically during the forecast period Consolidated Summary P&L to FCF ($ in millions) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Services Revenue $2,186 $2,230 $2,274 $2,319 $2,366
Slide 27: 2024 Risk-Adjusted Forecast
2024 Risk-Adjusted Forecast Consolidated Summary P&L to FCF ($ in millions) 1Q 2024 2Q 2024 3Q 2024 4Q 2024 2024 Total Banking Product Revenue $189 $253 $254 $344 $1,039 Services Revenue 372 388 388 410 1,558 Subtotal Banking Revenue $560 $641 $642 $753 $2,597 Retail Product Revenue $113 $131 $140 $
Slide 28: 2024 & Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Forecast
2024 & Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Forecast Consolidated Summary P&L to FCF ($ in millions) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Services Revenue $2,159 $2,202 $2,246 $2,291 $2,337 % Growth 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Product Revenue $1,574 $1,621 $1,670 $1,720 $1,772 % Growth 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Total Revenue $3
Slide 29: III. Transaction Structure
III.Transaction Structure 29
Slide 30: DIP Sizing Cash Flow Forecast (R&O Case)
DIP Sizing Cash Flow Forecast (R&O Case) Pre-Petition Post-Petition Projected Emerg. T hru Trough $1.25 billion DIP Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 financing sized to Unlevered F ree Cash F low $ (30.7) $ (75.1) $ (41.5) $ 7.0 $ (3.0) $ (9.2) address liquidity during Cash I nterest (2.5) (
Slide 31: DIP Need Build-Up
DIP Need Build-Up § $1.25 billion DIP-to-Exit Term Loan § The following outlines the key components of the $1.25 billion DIP financing need DIP Sizing Analysis Operational/Process Funding: $521mm ($ in millions) E ($70) $87 $200 $51 $11 $50 D $47 C B A $146 $90 $1,250 $401 $59 $179 ABL FILO SPTL SPT
Slide 32: Proposed Restructuring: Pro Forma Liquidity Profile
Proposed Restructuring: Pro Forma Liquidity Profile § The following outlines DBD’s pro forma liquidity post-emergence, illustratively assuming the following: Placement of a revolving credit facility – $200 million Revolving Credit Facility arranged following emergence prior to year-end 2023 post-eme
Slide 33: IV. Appendix
IV.Appendix 33
Slide 34: 2023 Base Case vs. October 2022 Plan
2023 Base Case vs. October 2022 Plan § 2023 Product revenue ~$6mm lower vs. October 2022 Plan − 62k ATM revenue units vs. 60k in October 2022 Plan (+2k units) (1) − 39k SCO revenue units vs. 38k in October 2022 Plan (+1k units) − 125k EPOS revenue units vs. 134k in October 2022 Plan (-9k units) § 20
Slide 35: 1Q23A vs. 1Q22A vs. 1Q23P (October Plan)
1Q23A vs. 1Q22A vs. 1Q23P (October 22 Plan) ($ millions) 1Q22A 1Q23P 1Q23A 1Q23A vs. 1Q23P 1Q23A vs. 1Q22A Observations $ % ¡ 1Q23A vs. 1Q23P (Oct 22 Plan) Services Revenue $524 $540 $514 ($26) (5%) ($10) (2%) − Service revenue lower due to tempered growth / Product Revenue 301 384 339 (45) (12%) 38
Slide 36: 2023E Base Case vs. 2022A
2023E Base Case vs. 2022A ($ millions) 2022A 2023E 2023E vs. 2022A Observations Revenue $ % Banking Product Revenue $874 $1,118 $244 28% ¡ YoY increase in Service revenue mainly driven by Retail Product Revenue 477 538 61 13% − Higher Installation revenue (due to higher shipments) (1) Total Product
Slide 37: 2024E Base Case vs. 2023E Base Case
2024E Base Case vs. 2023E Base Case ($ millions) 2023E 2024P 2024P vs. 2023E Observations Revenue $ % ¡ YoY increase in product revenue mostly driven by Banking Product Revenue $1,118 $1,162 $44 4% increased mix of cash recyclers Retail Product Revenue 538 543 5 1% (1) $1,656 $1,706 $50 3% Total Pro
Slide 38: Supplementary Information
Supplementary Information § Revised Forecast Margin Variance Drivers: The October Cleanse Model assumed approximately $5 million of DN Series margin improvement. Diebold closed 2022 with 13.6% Product margins versus Cleanse Model expectations of 15.7% - effectively resulting in a ~200 basis point lo
Slide 39: Supplementary Information (cont'd)
Supplementary Information (cont’d) § 2024 and 2025 Product and Service Revenue Growth Drivers: – 2024 Product: 64k ATMs, 43k SCOs, 120k EPOS units – 2024 Services: Low single digit Banking cBase decline offset by higher mix of recyclers / pricing and inflationary growth in PS / M&S. Continued growth
Slide 40: Supplementary Information (cont'd)
Supplementary Information (cont’d) § Services Volume Forecast Detail and Market Dynamics: – North America: Fairly stable overall despite a few notable deconversions, the largest being Cardtronics – LATAM / Brazil: Both strong cBase growth markets for DN growing volume ~3% annually – Europe: Declined
Slide 41: Disclaimer
Disclaimer General: This presentation, any other material accompanying this presentation and the information contained in the foregoing (collectively, the “Materials”) have been prepared by Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (the “Company”) for the exclusive use of the party to whom the Company or its Representa