Johnson Matthey PLC · LSE:JMAT
Johnson Matthey — Investor Presentation (November 2003)
40 slides from Johnson Matthey's investor presentation, Nov 18, 2003
Slide 1: Platinum 2003 Interim Review
Platinum|2003 Interim Review Johnson Matthey 18th November 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 2: Platinum
Platinum • Demand edges up to 6.59 million oz • Purchases for jewellery in China & Japan drop • Diesel sales drive record autocatalyst demand • Output rises in S. Africa but falls in N. America • Market deficit reduced but remains substantial • Funds contribute to price strength www.platinum.matthey
Slide 3: Platinum Demand by Application
Platinum Demand by Application ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 4: European Demand for Platinum in Autocatalysts 1999-2003
European Demand for Platinum in Autocatalysts 1999 - 2003 '000 oz 1,400 1,200 1,000 Gasoline 800 Diesel 600 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 5: Autocatalyst demand - Japan
Autocatalyst demand - Japan Tokyo HDD retrofit boosts Pt demand www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 6: Platinum Demand by Application
Platinum Demand by Application ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20 recovery (570) (650) 14 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 7: Platinum Demand by Application
Platinum Demand by Application ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20 recovery (570) (650) 14 Jewellery 2,820 2,450 (13) www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 8: Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1999-2003
Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1999 - 2003 million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 China 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 9: SGE: growth in platinum trade Aug-Nov 2003
SGE: growth in platinum trade 11 Aug – 14 Nov 2003 Kg 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 N 3 6 1 8 2 13 20 27 0 11 18 25 15 29 p2 -1 ov ct p p ct ct ct ug ug ug p p Se Se ov O Se N Se Se O O O A A A www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 10: Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1999-2003
Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1999 - 2003 million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 Japan 1.5 China 1.0 0.5 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 11: Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1998-2002
Demand for Platinum in Jewellery 1998 - 2002 million oz 3.0 2.5 Europe etc 2.0 N. America Japan 1.5 China 1.0 0.5 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 12: Platinum Demand by Application
Platinum Demand by Application ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 2,640 3,180 20 recovery (570) (650) 14 Jewellery 2,820 2,450 (13) Industrial 1,590 1,600 1 Investment 80 10 (88) TOTAL DEMAND 6,560 6,590 0.5 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 13: Platinum Supply by Region
Platinum Supply by Region ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change South Africa 4,450 4,650 4.5 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 14: Expanding South African Supply
Expanding South African Supply million oz 5 4 3 2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Anglo Platinum Impala Lonmin Others www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 15: Platinum Supply by Region
Platinum Supply by Region ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change South Africa 4,450 4,650 4.5 Russia 980 950 (3) Others 540 510 (5.5) TOTAL SUPPLY 5,970 6,110 2 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 16: Platinum Supply and Demand
Platinum Supply and Demand ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Demand 6,560 6,590 0.5 Supply 5,970 6,110 2 Movements in Stocks (590) (480) www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 17: Platinum Price
Platinum Price January – October 2003 $ per oz 800 750 700 650 600 550 J F M A M J J A S O Platinum - Av. London fix www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 18: Platinum - NYMEX speculative longs versus price
Platinum – NYMEX speculative longs versus price, Jan – Oct 2003 ’000 oz $ per oz 500 760 740 400 720 700 300 680 660 200 640 100 620 600 0 580 07- 04- 04- 01- 29- 27- 24- 22- 19- 16- 14- Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Net speculative position 5-day moving av. price www.platinum.matthey.
Slide 19: Palladium
Palladium • Demand recovers to 5.65 million oz • Much less use of inventories by auto companies • Stocks no longer affecting electronics sector • Russian sales rebound to 2.95 million oz • Surplus continues to grow www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 20: Palladium Demand by Application
Palladium Demand by Application ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 3,090 3,670 19 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 21: Palladium Autocatalyst Demand
Palladium Autocatalyst Demand 1999 - 2003 million oz 7 6 5 Purchases 4 Use 3 2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 22: Palladium Demand by Application
Palladium Demand by Application ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 3,090 3,670 19 recovery (370) (410) 11 Electronics 750 985 31 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 23: Palladium Demand by Application: Electronics
Palladium Demand by Application Electronics • Thrifting • Miniaturisation • Substitution www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 24: Palladium Demand by Application
Palladium Demand by Application ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Autocatalyst: gross 3,090 3,670 19 recovery (370) (410) 11 Electronics 750 985 31 Dental and Other 1,380 1,405 2 TOTAL DEMAND 4,850 5,650 16.5 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 25: Palladium Supply by Region
Palladium Supply by Region ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Russia 1,930 2,950 53 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 26: Russian Palladium Sales
Russian Palladium Sales 1999 - 2003 million oz 6 5 4 Russian sales 3 Mine output 2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 27: Palladium Supply by Region
Palladium Supply by Region ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Russia 1,930 2,950 53 South Africa 2,160 2,280 5.5 North America 990 850 (14) Others 170 240 41 TOTAL SUPPLY 5,250 6,320 20 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 28: Palladium Supply and Demand
Palladium Supply and Demand ‘000 oz 2002 2003 % change Demand 4,850 5,650 16.5 Supply 5,250 6,320 20 Movements in Stocks 400 670 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 29: Palladium Price
Palladium Price January – October 2003 $ per oz 300 250 200 150 100 J F M A M J J A S O Palladium - Av. London fix www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 30: Palladium - NYMEX speculative longs versus price
Palladium – NYMEX speculative longs versus price, Jan – Oct 2003 ’000 oz $ per oz 500 280 260 400 240 220 300 200 180 200 160 100 140 120 0 100 07- 04- 04- 01- 29- 27- 24- 22- 19- 16- 14- Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Net speculative position 5-day moving av. price www.platinum.matthey
Slide 31: Key Issues
Key Issues • Auto industry – diesel car sales – emissions legislation – HDD retrofitting – changing pgm ratios & thrifting www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 32: Key Issues
Key Issues • Auto industry • Chinese jewellery demand • South African mine expansions – PGM prices versus rand strength www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 33: Monthly average rand:$ rate
Monthly average rand:$ rate Jan 2000 – Sept 2003 rand:$ 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average $:rand exchange rate www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 34: Indexed average PGM Basket Price
Indexed average PGM Basket Price Jan 2000 – Sept 2003 rand:$ 12 120 11 110 10 100 9 90 8 80 7 70 6 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average indexed rand basket price - total all current mines Average rand:$ exchange rate www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 35: Indexed average PGM Basket Price
Indexed average PGM Basket Price Jan 2000 – Sept 2003 rand:$ 12 120 11 110 10 100 9 90 8 80 7 70 6 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average indexed rand basket price - total all current mines Average indexed rand basket price - UG2, central E. Bvd Average rand:$ exchange rate www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 36: Key Issues
Key Issues • Auto industry • Chinese jewellery demand • South African mine expansions – PGM prices versus Rand strength & inflation – Legislative programme www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 37: Key Issues
Key Issues • Auto industry • Chinese jewellery demand • South African mine expansions • Palladium stocks • Fund activity www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 38: Forecast Prices For The Next 6 Months
Forecast Prices For The $ per oz Next 6 Months 900 800 $700 – $820 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Platinum www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 39: Forecast Prices For The Next 6 Months
Forecast Prices For The $ per oz Next 6 Months 900 800 $700 – $820 700 600 500 400 300 200 $140 – $220 100 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Platinum Palladium www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Slide 40: Platinum 2003 Interim Review
Platinum|2003 Interim Review Johnson Matthey 18th November 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com abcd
Johnson Matthey — Investor Presentation (November 2003) on 6ix