Deutsche Bank Ag · XETR:DBK

Deutsche Bank — 14th Handelsblatt Conference (September 2009)

27 slides from Deutsche Bank's conference presentation, Sep 8, 2009

  1. Slide 1: The financial crisis and Deutsche Bank – a preliminary assessment

    The financial crisis and Deutsche Bank – a preliminary assessment Dr. Josef Ackermann Frankfurt, 8 September 2009

  2. Slide 2: Agenda

    Agenda 1 The crisis so far: Winning models or winning competencies? 2 Looking forward: Views on what’s to come 3 Deutsche Bank through the crisis 14th Handelsblatt Conference · 2

  3. Slide 3: No single model emerged as a 'winner'…

    No single model emerged as a ‘winner’… Share price development 1 July 2009 vs. 1 July 2007, local currency basis, in % Investment banks Diversified banks Commercial banks (32) (30) (32) (100) (1) (94) (82) (1) Until 17 September 2008 Source: Bloomberg 14th Handelsblatt Conference · 3

  4. Slide 4: ... but a number of critical competencies can be identified

    ... but a number of critical competencies can be identified Key challenges ... ... corresponding competencies Cost and availability of short term funding Funding base / liquidity management Complex, intransparent risks Risk management Loss absorption (trading losses, mark-downs) Capital strength Not

  5. Slide 5: The market rewards a stable funding base

    The market rewards a stable funding base Per 31 December 2008 Customer deposits in % of 5-year senior CDS balance sheet In % In bps 3 290 25 182 (1) 38 131 60 119 (1) Based on U.S. GAAP ‘pro-forma’ assets Source: Company data, Bloomberg, zeb 14th Handelsblatt Conference · 5

  6. Slide 6: Risk management: A key differentiator

    Risk management: A key differentiator Mark-downs of selected banks since beginning of crisis In EUR bn 2H2007 FY2008 1H2009 xx In % of equity pre-crisis(1) 44 47 107 47 39 29 12 34 21 54.5 41.4 35.0 12.9 11.8 10.8 9.8 9.3 5.6 (2) (2) BoA/MER C UBS MS SOC DB JPM CS GS (1) Shareholders‘ equity as of 3

  7. Slide 7: Demand for capital has had consequences for shareholders and governments

    Demand for capital has had consequences for shareholders and governments Equity raisings (announced) since 1 July 2008, in EUR bn Government Private 55 41 39 38 35 14 11 11 11 9 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 BoA/ RBS Lloyds C Wells HSBC JPM MS GS BAR CS Uni BNP UBS SOC DB Crédit MER Group Fargo credit Agricole Note

  8. Slide 8: Balance sheet efficiency has become critical

    Balance sheet efficiency has become critical Leading banks: Leverage ratio 2004 - 2009 Total assets / total equity per end of fiscal year 23 22 21 20 17 15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H2009 Note: Includes Citi, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Ban

  9. Slide 9: Agenda

    Agenda 1 The crisis so far: Winning models or winning competencies? 2 Looking forward: Views on what’s to come 3 Deutsche Bank through the crisis 14th Handelsblatt Conference · 9

  10. Slide 10: Future uncertainties and critical competencies

    Future uncertainties and critical competencies Future uncertainties Critical competencies Potential for continued Macro-economic turbulence Diversified business mix uncertainty Low interest-rates in medium- term Macro challenges driving Best-in-class credit risk higher provisioning Credit cycle mana

  11. Slide 11: Markets are showing clear signs of recovery …

    Markets are showing clear signs of recovery … Indexed, 1 January 2008 = 100 Recovery in equity Stabilizing of credit spreads DAX 30 S&P 500 Credit spreads(1), in bps 110 1250 Lehman Lehman 100 1000 90 80 750 70 500 60 250 50 40 0 1 Jan 2008 1 Sep 2009 1 Jan 2008 1 Sep 2009 (1) iTraxx Europe crossove

  12. Slide 12: … but fundamentals remain weak in key economies

    … but fundamentals remain weak in key economies Residential real estate price index Unemployment levels in key economies(2) Indexed value, 100 = 1Q2001; until 1Q2009 2007 2008 June 2009 200 8.7% 8.7% 7.1% 7.4% 7.0% 150 1Q 5.8% 5.6% 08-09 5.3% U.S.:(1) 4.6% (19)% 100 50 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 US

  13. Slide 13: The focus shifts to credit losses

    The focus shifts to credit losses In EUR bn Mark-downs(1) Provision for credit losses(1) 71.6 6.5x 58.6 58.8 49.8 44.6 23.6 17.6 14.1 9.0 2H 1H 2H 1H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 (1) Includes Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan Chase, BNP Paribas, Société Génerale, Credit Suisse, UBS, Mo

  14. Slide 14: Regulatory intervention will impact all industry players

    Regulatory intervention will impact all industry players Expected areas of intervention Implications Capital adequacy and leverage Restrained growth and returns Risk and liquidity management Supervision Shadow banking system Reduced revenue pools Remuneration OTC market infrastructure Increased fund

  15. Slide 15: Agenda

    Agenda 1 The crisis so far: Winning models or winning competencies? 2 Looking forward: Views on what’s to come 3 Deutsche Bank through the crisis 14th Handelsblatt Conference · 15

  16. Slide 16: Deutsche Bank a relative winner in the crisis …

    Deutsche Bank a relative winner in the crisis … 3Q2007 - 2Q2009, in EUR bn Aggregate net income Fair value gains/(losses) on own debt JPM 11.8 1.1 GS(1) 9.5 0.6 BoA 8.1 (0.9)(4) 1.0 0.2 CS (1.9) 3.6 MS(2) (2.5) 1.7 C (20.8) 2.5 UBS (24.3) 3.7(5) MER(3) (28.2) 4.1 (1) 3Q2007-4Q2008 based on diverging

  17. Slide 17: … as recognized by the market

    … as recognized by the market In EUR(1), indexed: 1 Jan 2009 = 100 175 70% 150 125 28% 100 75 International 50 peers(2) 25 0 1 Jan 2009 31 Mar 2009 30 Jun 2009 31 Aug 2009 (1) International peers’ share prices converted into EUR based on daily FX rates (2) International peers (Citi, JPMorgan Chase,

  18. Slide 18: Strong, good-quality, diversified funding base

    Strong, good-quality, diversified funding base Unsecured funding Liquidity position In EUR bn Cash and liquidity reserves significantly 511 exceed short-term wholesale funding of 479 EUR 68 bn 30% 14% 68 Comprehensive monthly liquidity stress testing, 153 incl. contingent liquidity risks Cash and li

  19. Slide 19: Best Tier 1 capital ratio since Basel framework was introduced

    Best Tier 1 capital ratio since Basel framework was introduced 11.0 10.3 10.1 10.2 Target: 9.2 9.3 ~10% 7.8 7.5 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.8 319 308 316 303 305 295 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 2008 2009 Tier 1 ratio, in % Core Tier 1 ratio, in % RWA, in EUR bn Note: Core Tier 1 ratio = Tier 1 capital less Hybrid Tier 1 Ca

  20. Slide 20: Increased asset efficiency

    Increased asset efficiency In EUR bn 30 Jun 2008 30 Jun 2009 Leverage ratio(2) (31)% 38 1,992 1,733 32 1,338 28 (653) 928 25 24 (805) IFRS Netting(1) U.S. GAAP IFRS Netting(1) U.S. GAAP Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun ‘pro-forma’ ‘pro-forma’ 2008 2009 (1) For 30 June 2009 incl. derivatives netting of EUR 681 bn

  21. Slide 21: Disciplined credit risk management

    Disciplined credit risk management 1H2009 provisioning ratio, in bps(1) 828 PCAM 734 CIB / other 612 520 PCAM: Peers 339 232 218 227 245 198 CIB / other: 168 157 138 131 139 Peers 223 72 57 12 22 Citi BoA JPM BAR BNP SOC DB UBS CS Group 679 608 473 215 164 136 113 88 41 (1) Annualized, 1H2009 provis

  22. Slide 22: Strong geographical and business diversification

    Strong geographical and business diversification In EUR bn Regional distribution of revenues(1) Non-Investmentbanking profits Asia / Pacific Income before income taxes(2) Americas GTB Europe ex Germany AWM Germany 31 3.0 28 PBC 15% 2.6 26 12% 10% 20% 29% 1.9 26% 1.6 1.4 10 36% 4% 35% 34% 7% 20% 69%

  23. Slide 23: Significant structural changes: 'Winners emerge' ...

    Significant structural changes: ‘Winners emerge’ ... Acquired by March 2008 Current Bear Stearns JPM JPMorgan Chase Merrill Lynch Bank of America Bank of America Lehman Brothers Barclays Barclays Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley Wachovia Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Deutsche Bank

  24. Slide 24: … creating an opportunity for Deutsche Bank to gain share in investment banking …

    … creating an opportunity for Deutsche Bank to gain share in investment banking … Sales & Trading: Global revenue pool(1) Significant market share up for capture In EUR bn Equity DB Merged or exited Remainder Debt ~(10)% Current 170 DB rank 149 153 U.S. IRD #2 129 EM Bonds #2 EU Investment #1 Grade

  25. Slide 25: … and increase strategic optionality in our home market

    … and increase strategic optionality in our home market Clients of German retail banks as of 2008, in million Sparkassen ~50.0 Volksbanken ~30.0 14.1 11.0 Cooperation As of 2008 (figures for Germany only) Branches 856 930 10.1 Mobile sales force ~4,260 ~1,600 6.7 FTE ~21,130 ~15,460 ~4.0 3.3 Source:

  26. Slide 26: Deutsche Bank scorecard: 'A preliminary assessment'

    Deutsche Bank scorecard: ‘A preliminary assessment’ Key financial data, 1H / 30 June 2008/2009 30 June 30 June 2008 2009 Income before income taxes (in EUR bn) 0.4 3.1 Profitability Net income (in EUR bn) 0.5 2.3 Pre-tax RoE (target definition)(1) (4)% 20% Tier 1 capital ratio 9.3% 11.0% Capital and

  27. Slide 27: Cautionary statements

    Cautionary statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include statements about our beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates and pro

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