BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (June 2012)
26 slides from BP's investor presentation, June 2012
Slide 1: Energy in 2011 — disruption and continuity
BP Statistical Review of World Energy bp June 2012 i: bp.com/statisticalreview Energy in 2011 — disruption and continuity Christof Ruhl, Group Chief Economist
Slide 2: Outline
Outline bp A year of disruptions Energy and the economy Fuel by fuel Concluding remarks BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 3: Energy in 2011 — disruptions and continuity
Energy in 2011 — disruptions and continuity bp ie Supply disruptions Mtoe 4 “Arab Spring” “Fukushima” = | a | -20 — @ -40 = Coal m Nuclear m Gas m Oil -80 Libya Syria/Yemen Japan Germany GDP and energy growth Annual change, % mGDP mEnergy 2001-11 2011 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: includes data from Oxford
Slide 4: Energy prices
Energy prices bp ie Energy prices $/boe 150 —Oil Brent 120 —Gas Henry Hub —Coal basket Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Annual change, % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2011 price changes ° Oil Brent Gas HH _ Coal basket Source: includes data from Platts. BAFA and McCloskey BP Statistical Review of W
Slide 5: The economy
The economy bp ie Contribution to GDP growth Annual change, % 4% nm Non-OECD m OECD 3% 2% 1% 0% 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 2011 GDP growth Quarterly change, % annualised 8% 4% 0% us — ——Japan AY 4% —EU -8% 1010 3010 1011 3011 1012 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics BP Statistical Review
Slide 6: GDP and energy growth
bp GDP and energy growth is Non-OECD OECD 9 Annual change, % Annual change, % 8% 8% mGDP mEnergy 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% -2% -2% 2001-11 2011 2001-11 2011 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 7: Crude oil prices
Crude oil prices bp ie Dated Brent $/bbI 150 100 50 —— Dated Brent 0 — Annual averages 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dated Brent and WTI $/bbl 130 —— Dated Brent —wtiil 115 100 85 70 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Source: includes data from Platts BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 8: Oil production growth in 2011
bp Oil production growth in 2011 is Decline Increase Mb/d -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Libya Angola Azerbaijan @ Non-OPEC Norway m@ OPEC Saudi Arabia BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 9: US supply
bp US supply is US supply US rig counts Annual change, Kb/d Rigs 2000 70 — Oil —Gas 500 1500 250 1000 | =| 0 500 -250 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-07 May-08 Sep-09 Jan-11 May-12 *Texas and North Dakota Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes BP Statistical Rev
Slide 10: Oil consumption growth in 2011
bp Oil consumption growth in 2011 is Largest changes Regional growth by fuel type Kb/d Kb/d -400 -200 0 200 400 600 900 ; wae mu Light distillate China 600 m Middle distillate Russia India 300 Saudi Arabia Iran ° Taiwan -300 Germany mw OECD US = Non-OECD “00 Non-OECD OECD BP Statistical Review of Wo
Slide 11: Limits to oil consumption growth
bp Limits to oil consumption growth is Subsidised consumption Vehicle fuel economy % of global demand $/bbl Litres/100km for new sales 40% 120 11 —Oil price (RHS) 10 30% 90 ——US* 9 20% 60 8 —China 7 10% 30 ee —Japan 6 0% 0 5 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2002 2005 2008 2011 * Includes light trucks Source
Slide 12: Oil consumption and production
bp Oil consumption and production is World liquids demand and supply OECD commercial oil stocks Mb/d Mbbls 90 2900 mmm 2006-10 range -- 2006-10 average —2011 — 2012 2800 88 2700 87 —Demand — Supply 86 2600 35 Mbbl SPR release 85 2500 4010 2011 4011 2012 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: includes data
Slide 13: Refining: spare capacity and utilisation
bp Refining: spare capacity and utilisation is Cumulative spare capacity growth Mb/d since 2005 6 nm Non-OECD m OECD , [| 2 al 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 89% 85% 81% 771% Refinery utilisation ——World —oOECD ~~ Non-OECD 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: includes data from Parpinelli Tecno
Slide 14: Crude oil trade and refining margins
bp Crude oil trade and refining margins i European crude imports NW Europe cracking margins Mb/d $/bbl 10 ; 8 BS&C America 2010 2011 2012 “ = Other 6 6 = FSU 4 4 = Africa : hl la l| m= Middle East | 0 ) 10 20 30 40 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency B
Slide 15: Natural gas markets in 2011
Natural gas markets in 2011 bp ie Production and consumption growth Annual change, Bem 150 Other 100 50 Production Consumption Regional gas prices $/Mmbtu eo ——Asia LNG — Germany AGIP 5 —UK NBP ~ US Henry Hub 10 0 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Aug 10 Aug 11 Source: includes data from Platts BP Statistical Re
Slide 16: Global gas trade
Global gas trade Gas exports 1500 Share of global consumption (RHS) puenagaly Ss Poe |o- “2 v4 1000 35% 30% 25% 20% bp ae LNG import growth in 2011 30 From Oatar To Asia To Europe BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 17: Natural gas in Asia and Europe in 2011
bp Natural gas in Asia and Europe in 2011 is Asia supply growth Europe supply and demand growth Annual change, Bem Annual change, Bem 30 15 Other net D From Russia Inpeact Pipi Ce FO! LIDS See -15 Production Production -30 -20 -45 China Japan Other Asia Supply Demand Source: includes data from Cedig
Slide 18: US natural gas market
US natural gas market bp ie Production Bem 800 Shale gas 600 ™ > 400 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Gas share in power generation mmm 2006-10 range ——-2011 ——2012 ra Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration BP Statistical Review of World
Slide 19: Coal growth in 2011
bp Coal growth in 2011 Largest changes in production Largest changes in consumption Mtoe Mtoe China J158_ | China Indonesia 26 India Colombia 7 Australia Russia 6 Spain Ukraine 5 Canada US 5 Japan Australia -5 US BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 20: Coal prices and trade
bp Coal prices and trade is Steam coal prices Import growth in 2011 $/tonne Annual change, Mtoe 180 — China Qinhuangdao (fob) —Japan Index (cif) —NW Europe (cif) ia ~——US CAPP (fob) 20 30 120 10 From From Russia Colombia ; 4—- ° 60 -10 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11. 9 Jul-11.— Jan-12 To Asia* To Europe *Chin
Slide 21: Nuclear, hydro and other renewables in power
bp Nuclear, hydro and other renewables in power Output changes in 2011 Annual change, TWh 200 100 Renewables Nuclear Hydro Shares of world power generation 20% 15% 10% ~——Nuclear —Hydro 5% ——Renewables 0% 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 22: Impact of oil prices on the economy
bp Impact of oil prices on the economy is 2011 net oil import bill Net oil imports % GDP Mb/d 8% ww Oil import bill 16 t Exports to oil producers 6% mw Net cost 12 a : “alll HE China India 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: includes data from the International Monetary Fund BP Statistical Review
Slide 23: Long-term trends
Long-term trends bp Shares of world primary energy 50% 40% —Coal 30% —Gas 20% i — Hydro 10% ~— Nuclear ea ~ —Renew. 0% 1966 1981 1996 2011 Oil and gas reserves Trillion bbls Tom 2.0 = Other 250 = North America 6 mFSU 200 = OPEC 0.4 50 0.0 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 1981 1991 2001 2011 BP Statistical Revi
Slide 24: Conclusion
bp Conclusion i * 2011: supply response, inter-fuel substitution, trade optimisation * Key: flexible markets ¢ Lessons: diversity of supply, global integration BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2012
Slide 25: Energy in 2011 — disruption and continuity
BP Statistical Review of World Energy bp June 2012 i: bp.com/statisticalreview Energy in 2011 — disruption and continuity 13% June 2012
Slide 26: Disclaimer
bp Disclaimer The data series for proved oil and gas reserves in BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 and referenced in this presentation does not necessarily meet the definitions, guidelines and practices used for determining proved reserves at company level, for instance, under UK accou