Marathon Petroleum Corporation · NYSE:MPC
Marathon Petroleum — Investor Presentation (March 2019)
65 slides from Marathon Petroleum's investor presentation, March 2019
Slide 1: Investor Presentation
Investor Presentation March 2019 ®
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward‐Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), MPLX LP (MPLX) and Andeavor Logistics LP (ANDX). These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, MPC’s acquis
Slide 3: Forward-Looking Statements (continued)
Forward‐Looking Statements (continued) Factors that could cause ANDX's actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: the amount and timing of future distributions; our ability to achieve expected coverage improvement and distributable cash growth;
Slide 4: MPC – A Leading Energy Company
MPC – A Leading Energy Company Refining Midstream Marketing & Retail Superior Operations Expanding Platform Across: Retail, Significant Growth Opportunities Wholesale, and Brand Strategic Investment to Capture Value Strategic Alignment with Refining Invest in Technology to Improve New Technology to
Slide 5: Built For Change: Our Strategic Vision
Built For Change: Our Strategic Vision Core Values and Integrated Strategic & Financial Operational Business Model Disciplined Strength Excellence Investments Core values underpin Enhances value Creates competitive Provides through-cycle our commitment to capture and ability to advantages protection
Slide 6: Responsible Corporate Leadership
Responsible Corporate Leadership MPC has earned 13 18 MPC 21 75% Environmental manages achievement certified wildlife awards habitats consisting of of the EPA’s Energy Star earned from state 1,352 environmental agencies Facilities earned recognitions awarded to OSHA’s highest status acres refineries
Slide 7: Leveraging a Larger System: Unprecedented Opportunities
Leveraging a Larger System: Unprecedented Opportunities Feedstock Acquisition Inbound Logistics Refining & Processing Outbound Logistics Marketing & Retail Additional access to advantaged feedstocks Expanded logistics system lowers crude acquisition costs + increases speed to market Broader ma
Slide 8: Integration: Further Opportunities for Value Chain Capture
Integration: Further Opportunities for Value Chain Capture Kenai Nationwide footprint enables connectivity to key supply Anacortes sources and demand hubs Mandan Portland Dickinson Broader, integrated system St. Paul Detroit Park Canton Salt Lake City increases capability to Martinez Chicago Pit
Slide 9: Increasing Synergy Potential
Increasing Synergy Potential Synergy Outlook 1 Estimated Annual Run-Rate ($ millions) ($ millions) 380 1,400 1,400 110 270 400 450 300 55 1,000 90 290 665 210 600 200 120 1,000 950 710 465 480 Refining & Retail Midstream Corporate Total YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 Marketing 2 Initial Synergy Estimates Upda
Slide 10: Growing Profitability: Attractive Profile for Investors
Growing Profitability: Attractive Profile for Investors MPC has significantly diversified, and non-refining segments now contribute ~50% of EBITDA. Our strategic and disciplined investments have grown our business, creating an attractive opportunity for investors especially relative to energy and th
Slide 11: Financial Strength Underpins Total Shareholder Returns
Financial Strength Underpins Total Shareholder Returns Robust Balance Sheet Capital Spend 1 1 Capital Return 1 Investment grade rating $2.8 billion plan in 2019 ≥50% of discretionary free 2 – Flat with 2018E (combined) cash flow targeted to be ~20% debt to market cap returned to shareholders
Slide 12: MPC: Formula for Creating Exceptional Value
MPC: Formula for Creating Exceptional Value Leading assets & Strategic vision to Exceptional opportunity capabilities grow value for investors Core values and operational Through-cycle excellence resilience Premier asset base Integrated Competitive business model advantages Experienced management te
Slide 13: Appendix
Appendix 13
Slide 14: Roadmap to Creating Superior Value – Refining
Roadmap to Creating Superior Value – Refining Operational Product Supply Investments to Excellence & Placement Optionality Enhance Margin Optimization Flexibility Leverage broader Enhance reliability + Focus on upgrading Enhance domestic scale + logistics availability of assets capabilities (yield p
Slide 15: MPC Refining Footprint and Regions
MPC Refining Footprint and Regions Refining Locations 1 4 refineries: 711 MBPD West Coast Anacortes Mandan Dickinson St. Paul Park Pricing indicator: WC ANS 321 Detroit Salt Lake City Canton Robinson 1 10 refineries: 1,161 MBPD Mid- Con Catlettsburg Martinez Gallup Pricing indicator: Chicago
Slide 16: Broader Scale Expands Supply Optionality
Broader Scale Expands Supply Optionality ANS Canadian Larger footprint expands access to advantaged supply: 1 Bakken 2 1. 1 Canadian 2. 2 Bakken 3. 3 Permian New logistics assets lower crude acquisition costs WTI Other Crudes (Global Heavy, Arab, Crude processing flexibility California, other)
Slide 17: Canadian Crude Flexibility
1 Canadian Crude Flexibility Broader system Clearbrook increases access to Anacortes Canadian crudes enhancing margin Portland St. Paul capture Park Detroit SAX/ Mustang Over 500 MBPD of Canton Canadian crude Martinez Robinson purchases Catlettsburg Cushing, OK Approximately 67% heavy Los Ange
Slide 18: Bakken Strategy Optimization
2 Bakken Strategy Optimization New logistics assets increase Bakken crude Johnson’s Corner Clearbrook access, providing more Anacortes Mandan options to capture margin Connectivity and secured St. Paul Park space on long-haul pipelines Detroit provide flexibility to our Flanagan Chicago Canton M
Slide 19: Permian Strategy Optimization
3 Permian Strategy Optimization Increasing integrated footprint in the TX AR Permian creates multiple benefits NM across our platform El Paso Midland LA MS Wink LA Gathering systems create direct Orla Crane crude sourcing of advantaged TX Nederland crude for our refineries (est. 300 MBPD total) Fr
Slide 20: Key Strategic Investments: Grow EBITDA
Key Strategic Investments: Grow EBITDA 1 Expected Annualized Average EBITDA ($ in millions) Investments focused on +$530 $1,130 upgrading capabilities, yield GVL Coker 3 flexibility, and conversion capacity GBR STAR1 Track record of executing on- +$270 DKR Renewable schedule and exceeding return
Slide 21: Garyville Coker 3 Project
Garyville Coker 3 Project Increases Garyville coking capacity by 50% to 150 MBPD to increase capability to upgrade resid Enhances distillate yields Coker 3 Leverages existing infrastructure Location Increases ability to capture upside from light- heavy crude spreads Project details and estimat
Slide 22: Galveston Bay STAR Program
Galveston Bay STAR Program Creates a world-class refining complex with 40 MBPD increased crude unit capacity Increases resid processing and improves gasoil recovery Optimizes operations and reduces costs Project details and estimates: – Staged investment - on schedule and on budget – Planned com
Slide 23: Dickinson Renewable Diesel
Dickinson Renewable Diesel Produce renewable diesel to capture economic opportunity created by California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Federal Renewable Fuel Standard Convert refinery to process soybean and corn oil to make 12 MBPD of renewable diesel Local feedstock supply advantage Leverages
Slide 24: Los Angeles LARIC Project
Los Angeles LARIC Project Increases the flexibility to produce distillates and significantly lowers emissions 30–40 MBPD of gasoline and distillate yield flexibility Physical integration of the Los Angeles refinery complex enhances optimization Reduces NOx, SOx and CO2 emissions Project detail
Slide 25: IMO: Global Opportunities for Complex Refineries
IMO: Global Opportunities for Complex Refineries Refiners shift to maximum distillate production Coker Upgrading (ULSD - 3% Resid Fuel Oil) and resid upgrading $60 Forecast $50 Ship owners accelerate installation of scrubbers to enable HSFO consumption $40 Low complexity refineries lighten cru
Slide 26: MPC Well-Positioned Among U.S. Refiners
MPC Well-Positioned Among U.S. Refiners MPC well-positioned to produce high value fuels and capture benefits from the adoption of low sulfur fuels regulations – given investments over past decade to enhance upgrading capabilities. Resid Upgrading & Residual Fuel Oil Production Distillate Hydrotreati
Slide 27: Sensitivities to Potential IMO Factors
Sensitivities to Potential IMO Factors EBITDA Impact Key Metric Potential Impacts from $1/BBL change Higher crack required to support increased refinery Blended 321 Crack production and meet elevated demand for low sulfur fuels ~ $1,150 MM - Refining yield shift to max distillate production and - Ga
Slide 28: Unprecedented Opportunities for Light Product Optimization
Unprecedented Opportunities for Light Product Optimization Kenai Nationwide footprint Anacortes enables connectivity to all Mandan US markets Portland Dickinson St. Paul Detroit Park Canton Salt Lake City Chicago Pittsburgh Multiple pathways cost- Martinez Robinson effectively balance Catlettsbu
Slide 29: Mexico Strategy Optimization
Mexico Strategy Optimization 1. 1 Utilizing ARCO brand at 105 stations in MPC Refineries Western Mexico, expanding ARCO to Martinez ARCO Operations Chihuahua and Baja Sur in early 2019 Rail Facility Terminal 2. 2 Developing Mexico supply capabilities and Los Angeles efficiency with new Rosarito ligh
Slide 30: Operational Excellence: Delivers Significant Value
Operational Excellence: Delivers Significant Value Cash Operating Expense1 Improve operating costs Galveston Bay '14 2016 U.S. Average Best-in-class energy efficiency and turnaround Cash Operating Expense Index 4th Quartile performance ANDV '16 Galveston Bay '16 3rd Quartile MPC '16 Supply cha
Slide 31: R&M Segment Synergies
R&M Segment Synergies Estimated Annual Run-Rate 1 Synergy Projections by Sub-Category ($ millions) ($ millions) 665 665 95 200 140 420 100 160 250 70 465 100 100 260 150 160 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 Refining Refining Turnaround / Marketing Supply and Procurement Total Optimization Business Maintenance T
Slide 32: Roadmap to Creating Superior Value – Midstream
Roadmap to Creating Superior Value – Midstream Capture Full Enhance Grow in Leverage Financial Midstream Cash Flow Premier MPC Priorities Value Chain Stability Basins Relationship Participate across Long-haul pipelines Permian: Fosters growth Self-funding value chain to add stable cash flow signific
Slide 33: U.S. Production Growth Creates Midstream Opportunities
U.S. Production Growth Creates Midstream Opportunities Strong production growth in crude, natural gas, and natural gas liquids will require additional infrastructure to link supply to global demand markets. Pipelines, processing, fractionation and export facilities will be needed to allow producers
Slide 34: Capturing Permian Opportunities: Follow the Molecule
Capturing Permian Opportunities: Follow the Molecule Creating an integrated footprint from Legend Crude the Permian to the Gulf Coast NGL Natural Gas 1 Gathering and processing Delaware & Midland Basins TEXAS 2 Long-haul pipelines 1 3 Fractionation 2 3 4 4 Export terminals 34
Slide 35: Permian G&P Feeds Downstream Opportunities
Permian G&P Feeds Downstream Opportunities Gathering systems create significant growth opportunities in the Permian TexNew Conan Mex Gathering Preakness Torñado System System Argo Apollo 1 Legend Crude pipeline To Texas City area Hidalgo Natural gas pipeline NGL pipeline To Houston To Agua Dulce Cru
Slide 36: Permian Crude Long-Haul Pipelines
Permian Crude Long-Haul Pipelines Investments in long-haul pipelines generate stable, fee-based midstream income and also help lower feedstock costs tor MPC refineries Gray Oak Pipeline – MPC, Diamondback Energy, PSXP Midland TEXAS – ~850 mile, 30-inch diameter Wink – Anticipate in-service 4Q19 Or
Slide 37: Permian Natural Gas Long-Haul Pipeline
Permian Natural Gas Long-Haul Pipeline Expand our value chain by connecting growing natural gas production to demand from MPC refineries and global export markets Whistler Pipeline – MPLX, Targa, White Water Midstream, and potentially others Waha TEXAS – ~450 miles, 42-inch diameter – Capacity 2 B
Slide 38: Permian NGL Long-Haul Pipeline and Fractionation
Permian NGL Long-Haul Pipeline and Fractionation Expand our value chain by connecting growing NGL production and developing new fractionation infrastructure in the Gulf Coast BANGL Pipeline (Belvieu Alternative NGL) – MPLX, White Water Midstream, and other partners TEXAS – ~400 mile, 24-inch diame
Slide 39: Expanding Export Assets at Five Gulf Coast Locations
Expanding Export Assets at Five Gulf Coast Locations Export facilities create ability to generate third party revenue and meet global demand for crude, refined products, and NGLs Currently in service – Mt. Airy, LA: acquired in 3Q18 – LOOP: expansion with proposed Capline reversal and Swordfish Pi
Slide 40: Bakken: Third-Party Growth Opportunities
Bakken: Third-Party Growth Opportunities Full-service midstream offering for both third parties and MPC starting at the well-head with crude oil and natural gas gathering through processing and fractionation with multiple takeaway options Legend Crude pipeline New NGL pipeline Converted NGL pipeline
Slide 41: Marcellus/Utica: Footprint Continues to Deliver
Marcellus/Utica: Footprint Continues to Deliver Marcellus/Utica continues to be the largest natural OH PA gas basin in the U.S. Current producer demand Bluestone supports our buildout of incremental infrastructure: Hopedale Harmon Creek Forecasted Volumes 2018 2020E Cadiz Houston Ohio Condensate Gat
Slide 42: Outlook
Outlook Assumes MPLX and ANDX operate as standalone companies 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E Growth Capital Expenditures ($B)1 $2.2 $2.0 Growth Capital Expenditures ($B)1 $0.6 $0.6 Adjusted EBITDA ($B) $3.9 $4.4 EBITDA ($B) $1.4 $1.6 DCF ($B)2 $3.1 $3.5 DCF ($B)2, 3 $1.1 $1.2 Outstanding LP Units (MM) 794
Slide 43: Roadmap to Creating Superior Value – Marketing & Retail
Roadmap to Creating Superior Value – Marketing & Retail Leverage Scale Capture Enhance High-Value to Drive Value Integration Customer Growth Creation Opportunities Experience Strong brand portfolio Optimize channel Focus on key markets Embrace changing and loyalty program participation and real cons
Slide 44: Unparalleled Nationwide Marketing & Retail Footprint
Unparalleled Nationwide Marketing & Retail Footprint Terminal Sales Location Note: Based on combined estimates for 2018 1 Across Retail segment and Brand Marketing 44
Slide 45: Multi-Channel Platform Creates Unrivaled Flexibility
Multi-Channel Platform Creates Unrivaled Flexibility Retail Segment R&M Segment Retail 1 Direct Dealer Brand Wholesale Channel diversity 7.8 billion GPY 2.6 billion GPY 5.3 billion GPY 16.9 billion GPY maximizes value capture Terminal Terminal Integrated platform provides assured product placeme
Slide 46: Strong and Diversified Fuel Branding Platform
Strong and Diversified Fuel Branding Platform Enhanced dual proprietary Brand marketing platform (Marathon + ARCO) 1 Leverage regional brand strengths and 267 related consumer preferences 85 69 Tremendous growth opportunities in Other 345 Western states 1,101 Multi branded platform enhances
Slide 47: Retail Segment: MPC’s Unique Competitive Advantage
Retail Segment: MPC’s Unique Competitive Advantage Two complimentary retail platforms that Speedway #1 in Peer Group Performance generate stable and growing cash flow with $30 ($M EBITDA/Store/Month) unparalleled integration value. Retail EBITDA Illustration $20 ($ millions) > 2,000 ANDV Retail $10
Slide 48: Retail Segment Synergies
Retail Segment Synergies 1 Estimated Annual Run-Rate Synergy Projections by Sub-Category ($ millions) ($ millions) 300 300 35 90 20 200 115 50 90 210 20 150 130 70 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 Profit Reduce Operating Reduce G&A Economies of Total Enhancement Expenses Expenses Scale on Capital Initial Synerg
Slide 49: Financial Principles and Policy
Financial Principles and Policy Disciplined investment in growth opportunities Through-cycle dividend growth Support our investment grade credit rating Return cash to shareholders through repurchases Maintain the safety, integrity and reliability of our assets Balance Sheet Capital Investm
Slide 50: Balance Sheet: Foundation for Strategy Execution
Balance Sheet: Foundation for Strategy Execution MPC Liquidity Minimum cash balance $1 – 2 billion Revolving credit facilities $6 billion Trade receivables facility $750 million Target Leverage Debt to EBITDA MPC (excluding MLP’s) ≤ 2.0x MPLX ≤ 4.0x ANDX ≤ 4.0x Corporate Credit Rating Moody’s S&P Fi
Slide 51: Disciplined Capital Allocation Policy
Disciplined Capital Allocation Policy 2019 Financial Targets (excluding MLPs): Capital expenditures: ~$2.8 billion Dividends Capital Expenditures Capital return target: ≥ 50% of discretionary free cash flow 1 Share Repurchases – Annual dividend target: ≥ 10% growth 1 Discretionary free cash flow
Slide 52: Disciplined Capital Spend
Disciplined Capital Spend ($ billions) Projected 2019 investments for MPC MPC 2019E 2020E Growth Capital 1.8 1.8 – Focused on enhancing margin capture Maintenance Capital 1.0 1.0 system-wide Total MPC (excluding MLPs) 2.8 2.8 – Disciplined allocation to projects with MPLX 2019E 2020E superior return
Slide 53: Stable and Growing Dividend
Stable and Growing Dividend 1 $2.12 Secure throughout business cycles Annual Dividends ($ per share) $1.84 Growth commensurate with the business $1.52 $1.36 Targeting ≥ 10% long-term growth rate $1.14 $0.92 $0.77 $0.60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 1 2019E based on annualized $0.53
Slide 54: Consistent Return of Capital Through Share Buybacks
Consistent Return of Capital Through Share Buybacks Share Repurchases ($ billions) 7.5 4th quarter of 2018: $675 million of repurchases 3.3 Capital return target: ≥ 50% of 2.4 discretionary free cash flow1 Existing authorization 2: $4.9 billion, potentially completed by year end 2020 2012-2016
Slide 55: Commodity Price Assumptions and Long-Term Outlook
Commodity Price Assumptions and Long-Term Outlook Commodity / Spread 2018 2019 Long-Term ($/BBL, unless noted) Average 1 Business Plan 2 Outlook 2 WTI $65.00 $64 $50 - $80 Brent-WTI $6.75 $3.60 $3 - $12 Brent-ANS $(0.25) $0.10 $(1) - $2 Brent-ASCI $5.00 $6.50 $3 - $9 LLS-WTI $5.00 $3.25 $4 - $9 WTI-
Slide 56: Regional Crack Spread Outlook
Regional Crack Spread Outlook USGC LLS 321 Chicago WTI 321 $14.25 $14 – $16 $8.50 $9.25 – $9.75 $12.75 $8.00 $/BBL $/BBL $6.00 $9.00 2016 2017 2018 2019E-2021E 2016 2017 2018 2019E-2021E Average Average WC ANS 321 ULSD - 3% Resid Fuel Oil $30 – $40 $15 – $17 $/BBL $14.00 $14.25 $/BBL $12.50 $24.00 $
Slide 57: Turnaround Accounting Impacts Peer Comparisons
Turnaround Accounting Impacts Peer Comparisons MPC will continue to expense turnarounds (TAR); ANDV had deferred and amortized these costs TAR-adjusted EBITDA will be provided quarterly to increase comparability with peers Pro-Forma Turnaround Costs ($ billions) $1.0 $1.0 $0.9 $0.9 2016 2017 201
Slide 58: New MPC Segment Reporting Structure
New MPC Segment Reporting Structure Refining & Midstream Retail Marketing Refining MPLX Retail Marketing – Speedway ANDX – Other – Brand – Wholesale Direct Dealer – Asphalt & Legacy ANDV Petrochemicals Legacy MPC Refining Logistics Marketing Refining & Midstream Speedway Marketing Refi
Slide 59: New MPC Segment Reporting Structure
New MPC Segment Reporting Structure Refining & Marketing Midstream Retail Regions: MPLX Retail – Gulf Coast ANDX Direct dealers – Mid-Con Other midstream assets – West Coast Marketing: Key Statistics: Key Statistics: – Brand – Pipeline, terminal, and – Number of locations – Wholesale g
Slide 60: First Quarter 2019 Outlook
First Quarter 2019 Outlook Other Corporate Turnaround Depreciation Other Total Crude Charge/ Total Sweet Sour and Other and Major and Manufacturing Direct Throughput 1 Feedstocks Throughput 1 Crude Crude Unallocated Maintenance Amortization Cost 2 Operating Costs Throughput 1 Items 3 in MBPD Percent
Slide 61: Market Data Terminologies
Market Data Terminologies Metric Formula Mid-Con Crack Spread* • ((2xChicago CBOB Gasoline + Chicago ULSD)/3) x 42 – WTI Prompt West Coast Crack Spread* • ((2xLA CARBOB + LA CARB Diesel)/3) x 42 – ANS Prompt USGC Crack Spread* • ((2xUSGC CBOB Gasoline +USGC ULSD)/3) x 42 – LLS Prompt • Weighted 38%/
Slide 62: MPLX 2019-2020 Outlook – Reconciliation
MPLX 2019-2020 Outlook – Reconciliation Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow from Net Income ($ billion) 2019E 2020E Net income 2.2 2.5 Depreciation and amortization 0.9 1.0 Net interest and other financial costs 0.7 0.7 Adjustment for equity investment earnings & distributions 0.2 0.2 Other
Slide 63: MPLX 2019-2020 Outlook – Reconciliation
MPLX 2019-2020 Outlook – Reconciliation Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow from Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($ billion) 2019E 2020E Net cash provided by operating activities 3.2 3.8 Changes in working capital items 0.0 (0.1) Net interest and other financial costs 0.7 0.7 Unrea
Slide 64: ANDX 2019-2020 Outlook – Reconciliation
ANDX 2019-2020 Outlook – Reconciliation EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow from Net Earnings ($ billion) 2019E 2020E Net earnings 0.8 0.8 Depreciation and amortization 0.4 0.5 Net interest and other financial costs 0.2 0.3 EBITDA 1.4 1.6 Adjustment for equity investment earnings & distributions 0.0
Slide 65: Speedway EBITDA Reconciliation
Speedway EBITDA Reconciliation Segment EBITDA to Segment Income from Operations ($ million) 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 LTM Speedway Segment Income from Operations 208 148 95 159 610 Plus: Depreciation and Amortization 68 78 79 73 298 Speedway Segment EBITDA 276 226 174 232 908 65
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