Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Technical Presentation (November 2023)
15 slides from Xcel Energy's technical presentation, Nov 8, 2023
Slide 1: Xcel Energy Colorado NTG and Market Effects Research
Xcel Energy Colorado NTG and Market Effects Research Alexandra Dunn, Amanda Maass, Sara Conzemius, Lisa Qu November 8, 2023
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Methodology Literature review findings Additional considerations Recommended NTG estimate Recommended next steps
Slide 3: Approach to getting at a prospective HP NTG value
Approach to getting at a prospective HP NTG value Interviews with Xcel Review Xcel Energy Conduct Conduct trade Energy Staff Documents literature review partner interviews Interviewed Xcel Energy Reviewed previous Conducted a literature Interviewed 6 contractors staff about Xcel’s evaluations of Xce
Slide 4: Lit Review Findings
Lit Review Findings 4
Slide 5: There are no consistent methods used for HP NTG estimates
There are no consistent method used for HP NTG estimates We found variations in NTGR approaches in the following key areas: • Calculated Versus Stipulated: Some utilities use evaluators to conduct primary research to assess program influence while others negotiate a stipulated NTGR based on secondar
Slide 6: We included 13 program NTGRs in our estimate
We included 13 program NTGRs in our estimate UTILITY LOCATION REBATE SUMMARY NTGR SOURCE MSHP - $500, ccHSHP - $600, ASHP - $800, ccASHP - $1,000, GSHP no fuel TRC, “Colorado Residential Heating and Cooling Xcel Energy Colorado Colorado conversion - $1,500/heating ton, GSHP fuel conversion - $2,000/
Slide 7: We recommend taking the mean of the NTG ratios for Xcel's base NTG estimate
We recommend taking the mean of the NTG ratios for Xcel’s base NTG estimate We took the mean of the 13 Our recommended base NTG ratio of 82% comes from the average available NTG ratios from our these NTGR. We believe this approach is appropriate, absent literature review, including the 6 measured im
Slide 8: Xcel Energy is taking action to reduce HP market barriers
Xcel Energy is taking action to reduce HP market barriers Barriers Activities Heat pump specific contractor training – required to become qualified partners with Xcel Energy. Heat pump knowledge among contractors is relatively low. Partnering with subject matter experts to provide trainings on topic
Slide 9: Additional Considerations
Additional Considerations 9
Slide 10: Trade Partners have varied experience, but all note the importance of HP incentives
Trade Partners have varied experience, but all note the importance of HP incentives on adoption # of • Rebates help contractors install more efficient HVAC Contractor type equipment. interviews HVAC contractors who • Some contractors have faced challenges trying to find primarily install furnaces an
Slide 11: IRA is not ARRA and we'll have to think about them differently
IRA is not ARRA and we’ll have to think about them differently when it comes to attribution • Both ARRA and IRA were designed to infuse money into the economy, but ARRA focused on “shovel-ready” programs while IRA was designed as a multi-year investment • IRA projects will have a longer on-ramp with
Slide 12: Recommended NTG
Recommended NTG 12
Slide 13: Current NTG Recommendation
Current NTG Recommendation 93% NTG Ratio 82% base NTG ratio Average of 13 heat pump NTGR from 93% 11% market effects adder Based on the Company’s current market activities and different utilities, the adder used by the including the Massachusetts program Company’s evaluated administrators for their
Slide 14: Recommended Next Steps
Recommended Next Steps Overall, we recommend shifting to a market effects approach to evaluating Xcel Energy’s heat pump interventions. To do so, we recommend that Xcel: 1. Create a program theory and logic model (PTLM) that identifies barriers, outlines interventions, and details hypothesized short
Slide 15: Questions?
Juestions?