Suncor Energy Inc. · TSX:SU
Suncor Energy — Investor Day (March 2026)
60 slides from Suncor Energy's investor day presentation, Mar 31, 2026
Slide 1: 2026 Investor Day
2026 Investor Day March 31, 2026 SUNCOR ENERGY 1
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1 Today’s Suncor Rich Kruger Chief Executive Officer Troy Little Chief Financial Officer 2 We’re not done yet Peter Zebedee Dave Oldreive 3 Superior returns Executive VP, Upstream Executive VP, Downstream 4 Oil sands future Shelley Powell Adam Albeldawi Senior VP, Operations Senior VP, Extern
Slide 3: Executive summary
Executive summary Today’s Suncor … rebuilt to win • Comprehensive integration of leadership, strategy, structure, culture $2B of free funds flow growth by 2028E (@ US$65 WTI) • Additional US$5/bbl WTI breakeven reduction to US$38/bbl 100 kbpd production growth by 2028E, 10% refining capacity re-rate
Slide 4: Today's Suncor
Today’s Suncor SUNCOR ENERGY 4
Slide 5: Rebuilt to win
Rebuilt to win Completely transformed … team-based, results-oriented, high-performance Leadership Strategy • Deep functional expertise • Uniquely integrated asset base • Bottom-line results-orientation • Acutely focused on the fundamentals • Driven to compete and win • Best-in-class performance ambi
Slide 6: Institutionalizing excellence
Institutionalizing excellence Systematically reducing variation and elevating overall performance Illustrative performance Operational excellence (OEMS) • Replaced 15-year-old legacy system • Proprietary design, best-practice based • Developed – 2023/2024, implemented – 2025 • 21 standardized operat
Slide 7: Safety above all else
Safety above all else Injuries and events down 75% in three years Lost time injury frequency Process safety event rate 0.06 0.30 0.04 0.20 0.02 0.10 0.00 0.00 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 SUNCOR ENERGY 7
Slide 8: Industry-leading reliability
Industry-leading reliability Record utilization in both the upstream and downstream Upgrading Refining1 % % 103 100 100 99 100 98 95 95 93 92 90 90 89 90 85 85 80 80 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 SUNCOR ENERGY 8
Slide 9: Record high volumes
Record high volumes Consistently meeting or exceeding commitments Upstream production Refining throughput kbpd kbpd 900 500 860 480 828 465 800 450 433 743 746 421 700 400 600 350 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 SUNCOR ENERGY 9
Slide 10: Delivering on commitments
Delivering on commitments 2024 Investor Day commitments achieved a year early 3-year 2-year 2024 through 2026 commitment achievement Upstream production growth 100 kbpd 114 kbpd WTI breakeven reduction US$10/bbl US$10/bbl Normalized free funds flow growth1 $3.3B >$3.3B Capital spend reduction to $5.
Slide 11: Financial outperformance
Financial outperformance Breakeven of US$43/bbl and free funds flow growth of 65% WTI breakeven Normalized FFF1 US$/bbl $B 60 10 >$3.3B growth 53 8 +65% 50 49 47 6 46 43 4 40 $10/bbl 43 2 30 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2024 Investor Day commitment Actual 2024 Investor Day commitment Actual
Slide 12: Global competitiveness
Global competitiveness WTI breakeven of global companies (includes total capital + base dividend) US$/bbl 100 4th quartile 3rd quartile 2nd quartile 1st quartile 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Suncor Today's 1 2023 Suncor Canadian peers Global integrateds Source: RBC Capital Markets report dated Febru
Slide 13: Our playbook
Our playbook Attributes to compete and win in today’s oil and gas world Size & scale Longevity & Financial Capital Ability to win durability resilience allocation Upstream production Reserve life Upstream supply cost Balance sheet strength Operational excellence Downstream capacity Resource quality
Slide 14: We're not done yet
We’re not done yet SUNCOR ENERGY 14
Slide 15: Our new commitment
Our new commitment Additional US$5/bbl breakeven reduction and $2B free funds flow growth by 2028E WTI breakeven FFF (@ US$65 WTI) US$/bbl $B 8 40 $5/bbl 7 +$2B 6 35 5 4 30 3 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E normalized1 SUNCOR ENERGY 15
Slide 16: Our competitive advantage
Our competitive advantage Unique integration & high performance … constructed to deliver in all business environments Base Mine Edmonton Terminals Base Plant Mining Retail Syncrude Storage Montreal Power Interconnecting pipelines Fort Hills Tankers Wholesale Sarnia Firebag Pipelines In situ Exports
Slide 17: 100 kbpd production growth … again
100 kbpd production growth … again Continued growth from existing upstream assets By year By segment kbpd kbpd 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025 Mining In situ E&P 2028E SUNCOR ENERGY 17
Slide 18: In situ growth
In situ growth Increase of 30 kbpd bitumen to greater than 300 kbpd by 2028E kbpd 310 • Continuing Firebag debottleneck 300 • Further steam optimization 290 • Additional infill drilling • Increasing gas co-injection 280 • Utilizing solvent technology 270 260 2025 Infills Gas co-injection Solvent 202
Slide 19: Mining growth
Mining growth Increase of 45 kbpd bitumen to greater than 700 kbpd by 2028E kbpd 725 700 • Opening Fort Hills North mine • Advanced blend management 675 • Precision mining techniques • Increasing extraction capacity 650 • Improving extraction recovery 625 2025 Fort Hills Base Plant / 2028E Syncrude
Slide 20: Higher mining performance
Higher mining performance 10% improvement in truck productive hours and reduced haul cycle time Productive hours per truck hours/yr 6,250 • Higher equipment reliability 6,000 • Enhancing mine road design • Optimizing fleet management 5,750 • Increasing shovel payloads 5,500 • Continuing AHS deployme
Slide 21: Even better turnarounds
Even better turnarounds Driving towards Solomon 1st quartile performance in North America Capital improvement (vs 2023) $M 400 • OEMS-managed process 300 • Risk-based work selection 200 • Improving job planning 100 • Reducing durations 0 2024 Investor Additional 2026 Investor • Extending intervals D
Slide 22: Step-change in maintenance
Step-change in maintenance Applying learnings from turnaround success … targeting 1st quartile performance Illustrative performance Quartile • Informed by Solomon benchmarking 1st Asset 4 • Integrated work planning & scheduling Asset 2 2nd • Materials management efficiencies Asset 2 • Improving work
Slide 23: Refining re-rate of 10%
Refining re-rate of 10% Increasing nameplate capacities at all refineries and growing total throughput New nameplate • Low-cost debottlenecking • Improving turnaround performance • Maximizing secondary unit utilization 511 Old +45 kbpd • Relentless focus on reliability nameplate kbpd • Improving “re
Slide 24: High-grading product sales
High-grading product sales Growing total sales and increasing volumes in the highest value channels 12% higher volumes (2025 vs 2023) Retail (owned) • Upgrading controlled retail sites • Leveraging strategic partnerships Retail Relative value (partners) Commercial transport • Strengthening loyalty p
Slide 25: Differentiated value capture
Differentiated value capture Maximizing the value of each and every barrel while also reducing costs 100 265 crudes products • Growing trading activities • Optimizing logistics utilization • Improving pipeline tolls & tariffs • Reducing truck, rail, marine costs • Expanding export capabilities 45 1,
Slide 26: Superior returns
Superior returns SUNCOR ENERGY 26
Slide 27: Our new commitment
Our new commitment Additional US$5/bbl breakeven reduction and $2B free funds flow growth by 2028E WTI breakeven FFF (@ US$65 WTI) US$/bbl $B 8 40 $5/bbl 7 +$2B 6 35 5 4 30 3 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E normalized1 SUNCOR ENERGY 27
Slide 28: Growing cash flow
Growing cash flow $40B of cumulative AFFO over three years at $65 WTI … $50B at $80 WTI AFFO AFFO per share1 $B $/sh 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E normalized2 normalized2 US$65 WTI US$80 WTI US$65 WTI US$80 WTI SUNCOR ENERGY 28
Slide 29: Capital discipline
Capital discipline Reducing sustaining capital and executing high-return projects $B % 7 70 Major economic projects 6 60 • Fort Hills North Pit 5 50 • Firebag debottleneck 4 40 • Firebag gas co-injection 3 30 • Retail controlled network 2 20 • Mildred Lake Extension East 1 10 • In situ growth strate
Slide 30: Growing free funds flow
Growing free funds flow $22B of cumulative FFF over three years at $65 WTI … $32B at $80 WTI FFF FFF per share1 $B $/sh 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E normalized2 normalized2 US$65 WTI US$80 WTI US$65 WTI US$80 WTI SUNCOR ENERGY 30
Slide 31: Balance sheet strength
Balance sheet strength Debt maturity profile $B Investment grade 2.0 credit rating 12-year 1.5 average debt tenor $9B 1.0 liquidity 0.5 1.0x (~$10B) net debt to AFFO (US$50 WTI) 0.0 0.5x current net debt to AFFO (Dec. 31 2025) CAD USD SUNCOR ENERGY 31
Slide 32: Increasing cash to shareholders
Increasing cash to shareholders $23B of cumulative cash returns over three years at $65 WTI … $33B at $80 WTI Cash returns $B 12 Capital allocation priorities 10 • Ensure a strong, resilient balance sheet 8 • Sustain our existing integrated asset base 6 • Pay a reliable and growing dividend • Return
Slide 33: Oil sands future
Oil sands future SUNCOR ENERGY 33
Slide 34: Long-life resource base
Long-life resource base 11 billion barrels of contingent resources added since the last assessment Oil sands resources Reserves 30 Bbbls +11 Bbbls contingent • Certified annually by 3rd party experts resources • 100% replacement, despite 2.6 Bbbls produced 19 Bbbls 95 yr1 Contingent resources contin
Slide 35: Geographically concentrated
Geographically concentrated Concentration provides significant operational and development synergies In situ 2P reserves Mining 2P reserves In situ Mining contingent resources contingent resources 22 Bbbls 8 Bbbls 5,200 km 2 lease area within a 100 km radius SUNCOR ENERGY 35
Slide 36: High quality in situ
High quality in situ Among the largest, highest quality, undeveloped in situ resource base in industry Average pay thickness (based on public data1 on undeveloped assets) m 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 All Other Firebag Expansion 4 Bbbls Lewis Firebag Expansion Chard 9 Bbbls Meadow Creek Lewis 9 Bbbls Sunco
Slide 37: Design one, build many
Design one, build many Standardize and replicate in situ development strategy Design basis • 500 – 700 Mbbls1 per development • 60 kbpd processing modules • 10 – 12 injector/producer pairs per pad • “Hub-and-spoke” fluid management Benefits • Increasing efficiency per phase • Shortening durations, l
Slide 38: Regional integration synergies
Regional integration synergies Development plans leverage unique asset base and drive capital efficiency • Utilizing surplus steam for SAGD1 • Leveraging existing field infrastructure • Internally sourced solvent for ES-SAGD2 • Internally sourced diluent for shipping • Integrating water management s
Slide 39: Firebag expansion
Firebag expansion Scaling a large, high-quality asset with industry-leading performance • Existing regulatory limit of 368 kbpd >1 Bbbls • Expansion to 700 kbpd filed March 30th produced since first oil in 2003 • Leveraging existing asset infrastructure Producing area • Roads, power, pipelines, aero
Slide 40: Scaling solvent technology
Scaling solvent technology Actively deploying commercially proven ES-SAGD at Firebag Well production kbpd 3 • Piloted ES-SAGD1 from 2021 – 2025 30%+ • Solvent injection of 10% peak production rate • 30%+ production uplift 2 • 20%+ SOR reduction • 80% solvent recovery 1 • 8 new ES-SAGD well pads thr
Slide 41: Lewis
Lewis No central processing facility required, leveraging existing regional assets • Regulatory approval of 160 kbpd Base Plant New scope • Leveraging existing Base Plant assets Steam pipeline • Cogen steam and power • Extraction separation cells Cogen • Water treatment and utilities • Sequenced wit
Slide 42: Capital efficient portfolio
Capital efficient portfolio 400 kbpd of undeveloped production capacity at an average capital cost of $30k/bpd $k/bpd1 Base Mine production Growth plan Further growth potential 40 Firebag 30 debottleneck Fort Hills debottleneck 20 10 Lewis Lewis Firebag Firebag Firebag Firebag Next in situ Next in s
Slide 43: In situ execution plan …
In situ execution plan … Sequencing to maximize capital efficiency and capture lessons learned Initial Developed 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 capacity resource1 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 (kbpd) (Mbbls) 2026E 2040E Detailed engineering Firebag debottleneck 30 45 n/a
Slide 44: … delivering long-term value …
… delivering long-term value … High execution confidence given repeatable modular design Project capital Production $B kbpd 3.5 450 400 3.0 350 2.5 Firebag Exp 300 Phases 3 & 4 2.0 250 Lewis Phase 1 & 2 1.5 200 150 1.0 Firebag Exp 100 Phases 1 & 2 0.5 50 Firebag debottleneck Fort Hills debottleneck
Slide 45: … while maintaining capital discipline
… while maintaining capital discipline In situ development plan executed with enterprise capital at or below $6B per year Enterprise capital Bitumen production $B kbpd 7 1,400 6 1,200 Further growth potential 5 In situ projects 1,000 Firebag Exp 3 & 4 Lewis 1 & 2 4 800 Firebag Exp 1 & 2 In situ Othe
Slide 46: All barrels are not created equal …
All barrels are not created equal … In situ production has 2x the relative cash flow per barrel vs mining Production mix Relative cash flow (@ US$65 WTI) 100% Price per barrel Mining 1x 75% 2x 50% total costs + sustaining capital total costs 25% + In situ sustaining capital 0% 2025 2030E 2035E 2040E
Slide 47: … in situ growth drives structural cash flow
… in situ growth drives structural cash flow Greater than 20% increase in relative cash flow per barrel from production mix alone Production mix Cash flow (relative proportion) (per barrel) 1x 1x 1x 1x 1x 1x 1x Today 1.3x (weighted average) 2x 2x 2x >20% increase 1x 1x 1x 1x Future 1.6x (weighted av
Slide 48: Why buy Suncor
Why buy Suncor SUNCOR ENERGY 48
Slide 49: Executive summary
Executive summary Today’s Suncor … rebuilt to win • Comprehensive integration of leadership, strategy, structure, culture $2B of free funds flow growth by 2028E (@ US$65 WTI) • Additional US$5/bbl WTI breakeven reduction to US$38/bbl 100 kbpd production growth by 2028E, 10% refining capacity re-rate
Slide 50: Increasing shareholder value
Increasing shareholder value More than doubling FFF per share and shareholder returns by 2028E at $80 WTI vs 2025 actuals 150 125 2028E vs 2025 actuals (%)1 100 75 165% 50 110% 75% 25 0 AFFO per share FFF per share Cash returns per share US$65 WTI US$80 WTI Note: Cash returns include dividends and s
Slide 51: Why buy Suncor
Why buy Suncor Industry leading safety & operational integrity Reliable, ratable financial & operating performance Uniquely integrated to capture value, reduce volatility Large, long-life, high-quality reserves & resources Financially resilient in all business environments Shareholder-focused capita
Slide 52: Appendix
Appendix SUNCOR ENERGY 52
Slide 53: Business environment assumptions
Business environment assumptions (US$ per barrel, unless otherwise noted) US$65 WTI US$80 WTI 2026 Guidance WTI 65.00 80.00 62.00 Brent 69.00 84.00 66.00 WTI-WCS (13.00) (13.00) (13.00) WTI-SYN 0.50 0.50 0.50 AECO (C$/GJ) 3.00 3.00 3.00 Alberta Power (C$/MWh) 70.00 70.00 55.00 New York Harbor 2-1-1
Slide 54: Calculating breakeven at year-end 2025
Calculating breakeven at year-end 2025 WTI breakeven1 US$/bbl $43 0 Total expenses Sustaining capital Dividends Downstream margin 2025 breakeven (OS&G, royalties, taxes, etc.) + capitalized interest & other normalized SUNCOR ENERGY 54
Slide 55: Improvement initiatives
Improvement initiatives Indicative free funds flow contribution 2026E to 2028E (@ US$65 WTI) $B 3.0 2.5 2.0 +$2B 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Upstream Mine Turnarounds Maintenance Refinery Sales Trading Other 1 Headwinds Total production performance throughput & Marketing & Logistics SUNCOR ENERGY 55
Slide 56: Advisories
Advisories Forward-Looking Statements – This presentation contains certain “forward- and Lewis, including: looking statements” and forward-looking information (collectively, “forward- • the development Phases and profiles and the timing and expected Forward-looking statements are based on various as
Slide 57: Advisories
Advisories Financial Measures Advisory” each of which are available on the company’s SEDAR+ Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and profile available at www.sedarplus.ca and each such reconciliation is incorporated involve a number of risks and uncertainties (some tha
Slide 58: Slide Notes
Slide Notes Slide 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Slide 27 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Slide 39 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Utilization percentages based on previous refining name
Slide 59: Notes
Notes SUNCOR ENERGY 59
Slide 60: Visit us at the Investor Centre on suncor.com
Visit us at the Investor Centre on suncor.com invest@suncor.com SUNCOR ENERGY 60