Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP

Thai Oil Public — Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation

53 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, Aug 16, 2022

  1. Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q2/22 Analyst Presentation

    Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q2/22 Analyst Presentation 16 Aug 2022 Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs.

  2. Slide 2: Disclaimer

    -2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad

  3. Slide 3: Presentation Agenda (Q2/22)

    -3- Presentation Agenda (Q2/22) KEY HIGHLIGHTS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OUTLOOK FINAL REMARKS

  4. Slide 4: Key Highlights

    KEY HIGHLIGHTS NS rrrcro

  5. Slide 5: Extraordinary Net Profit From Unusual High GRM

    -5- Extraordinary Net Profit From Unusual High GRM Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remark Key Market Highlights Key Business Highlights Financial Performance Strategy - 3Vs Key Events A Market Factors B Net Profit hit a Record High from 2 Major Contributions Net Profit (MB) GRM ($/BBL) Supp

  6. Slide 6: Q2 & 1H/22 Key Performance Highlights

    -6- Q2 & 1H/22 Key Performance Highlights Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remark Key Market Highlights Key Business Highlights Financial Performance Strategy - 3Vs Key Events Market Highlight Contribution ($/bbl) QoQ Dubai rose from $110.9/bbl to $113.2/bbl Dubai ($/bbl) (ending price) YoY

  7. Slide 7: Q2 & 1H/22 Key Business Highlights

    Q2 & 1H/22 Key Business Highlights -7- Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remark Key Market Highlights Key Business Highlights Financial Performance Strategy - 3Vs Key Events Key Business Highlight Operational Commercial Financial • High and reliable refinery production to fulfill • Capture hi

  8. Slide 8: Q2 & 1H/22 Financial Performance

    -8- Q2 & 1H/22 Financial Performance Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remark Key Market Highlights Key Business Highlights Financial Performance Strategy - 3Vs Key Events TOP Group Net Profit Net Profit Contributions* 1H/21 1H/22 Unit : Million Baht (MB) Q1/22 Q2/22 7,183 MB 25,327 MB 5,483

  9. Slide 9: Achievement: 3Vs Strategy

    -9- Achievement: 3Vs Strategy Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remark Key Market Highlights Key Business Highlights Financial Performance Strategy - 3Vs Key Events Value Maximization Value Enhancement Integrated Crude to Chemical Integrated Value Chain Mgmt. Value Diversification CFP • Repos

  10. Slide 10: Key Events

    -10- Key Events Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remark Key Market Highlights Key Business Highlights Financial Performance Strategy - 3Vs Key Events ESG & Key Events Highlights ESG Towards Net Zero Organization Sustainable Energy for Healthcare 60th Years Thaioil Support Social & Community

  11. Slide 11: Performance Analysis

    PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS -11- Tharoll

  12. Slide 12: Refinery: High & Reliable Utilization to Capture Strong Product Margins

    -12- Refinery: High & Reliable Utilization to Capture Strong Product Margins Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Jun’21 Mogas Je

  13. Slide 13: Refinery: Strong Mkt GRM on Improving Petroleum Demand

    -13- Refinery: Strong Mkt GRM on Improving Petroleum Demand Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2021 2022 2021 Q1/22 Q2/22 1H/21 1H/22 $/bbl Q

  14. Slide 14: Aromatic: Softening Contribution from Weakening Aromatic Margins

    -14- Aromatic: Softening Contribution from Weakening Aromatic Margins Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Aromatic Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2021 2022 2021 Q1/22 Q2/22 1H/21 1H/22 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

  15. Slide 15: Base Oil: Higher Contribution Supported by Improving Lube Spread

    -15- Base Oil: Higher Contribution Supported by Improving Lube Spread Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2021 2022 2021 Q1/22 Q2/22 1H/21 1H/22 $/ton Q1 Q2

  16. Slide 16: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost

    -16- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Oper

  17. Slide 17: Power Sector: Lower Contribution to the Group

    -17- Power Sector : Lower Contribution to the Group Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP (4) (5)(6) 74% 100% Power & Steam Sales Electricity(1) (4) Thaioil Power(TP) comp

  18. Slide 18: Olefins Business: Softening Petrochemical Contribution

    -18- Olefins Business : Softening Petrochemical Contribution Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Olefin Product Spreads TOP Investment Indonesia (TII) Performance Polymer Spreads Monomer Spreads Net Profit (millio

  19. Slide 19: Q2/22 Performance Breakdown

    -19- Q2/22 Performance Breakdown Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others (1) Others & Consolidated Petroleum & Lube Base Petrochemical Power (2) New Business (3) Net Profit Q1/22 6,655 (4) 288 362 7,183 Q2/22 26,092 (

  20. Slide 20: Q2/22 TOP Group Consolidated P&L

    -20- Q2/22 TOP Group Consolidated P&L Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others (MB) Q2/22 Q1/22 QoQ+/(-) Q2/21 YoY+/(-) 1H/22 1H/21 YoY+/(-) ) (A) (D) Sales Revenue 143,892 114,506 29,386 78,120 65,772 258,397 151,570

  21. Slide 21: 1H/22 Consolidated Cash Flow

    -21- 1H/22 Consolidated Cash Flow Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others (Unit: MB) 1H/21 1H/22 Represent 1H/21 1H/22 Operating Cash Flow (CFO) 1,059 23,295 Investing Cash Flow (CFI) (11,745) 7,708 Net income 5,731 4

  22. Slide 22: Q2/22 TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios

    -22- Q2/22 TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Jun 22 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Debt 36

  23. Slide 23: 2H/2022 Outlook

    -23- -23- 2H/2022 OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Refinery • Petrochemical • Base Oil & Bitumen

  24. Slide 24: Slower Oil Demand on Mild Economic Recession

    24-- --24 Slower Oil Demand on Mild Economic Recession Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A High Inflation and China’s Policy to Pressure Economic Growth B Slower GDP Growth on High Inflation and China’s COVID Policy 1. Russia – Ukra

  25. Slide 25: Crude Surplus on Limited Russia Disruption, Supported by Less Supply Addition

    25-- --25 Crude Surplus on Limited Russia Disruption, but Still supported by Less Supply Addition Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A Uncertain Russian Impact as Sanction Deadline Approaches B Less Supply Addition in Q4-22 on Limite

  26. Slide 26: Normalized Refinery Margin but Still Higher than Pre-Covid

    Normalized Refinery Margin but Still Higher than Pre-Covid on Tighter Supply and 26-- --26 Low Product Inventory Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) Avg. 2017: $7.1/BBL Avg. 2018: $5.9/BBL Avg. 2019: $3.

  27. Slide 27: Firm Jet/Kero Market from Recovered Demand

    Softer Gasoline Market from Higher Inventory and Steady-to-Soft Demand 27-- --27 Firm Jet/Kero Market from Recovered Demand Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Gasoline Market Jet/Kero Market 3. 1 Higher Inventories on Steady-to- 21.

  28. Slide 28: Soften Fuel Oil Market on Limited Supply Disruption amid Higher Demand

    Strong Gasoil Market from Tight Supply and Low Inventory -28- -28- Soften Fuel Oil Market on Limited Supply Disruption amid Higher Demand Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Gasoil Market Fuel Oil Market 11. Recovered Demand after Mon

  29. Slide 29: Tighter Market with Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition

    Tighter Market with Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition -29- -29- in 2022 and Medium Term & Lower Product Export from China Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion AP/ME Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand Lower Ch

  30. Slide 30: Recovering Gasoline, Jet, and Fuel Oil Demand amid Economic Slowdown in 2H/22

    -30- -30- Recovering Gasoline, Jet, and Fuel Oil Demand amid Economic Slowdown in 2H/22 Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Higher Gasoline Demand from Higher Travel Mobility B Higher Jet Demand from Fully Opening the Country Gasoline D

  31. Slide 31: Improved Aromatics Demand from Lockdown Easing amid New Capacity Addition

    -31- -31- Improved Aromatics Demand from Lockdown Easing amid New Capacity Addition Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A Improved PX Demand amid B Better BZ Improved Demand market due due in 2021 to Lifting Lockdown to Less CapacityM

  32. Slide 32: Firm Demand Growth amid More Olefins Capacity Addition

    -32- -32- Firm Demand Growth amid More Olefins Capacity Addition Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A ShortRecovering HDPE Term Support byDemand to Normal SM Run Rate LevelBZ and Lower amid Stock B Medical andmarket Improved Packagin

  33. Slide 33: Base Oil Market to be Supported by Low Fuel Oil Price and Less Capacity Addition

    Base Oil Market to be Supported by Low Fuel Oil Price and Less Capacity Addition -33- amid Low Demand During Rainy Season Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Base Oil Market to be Supported by Low HSFO Price A amid Lower Demand during

  34. Slide 34: 2H/2022 Outlook Conclusion

    -34- -34- 2H/2022 Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H/2022) Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Crude Oil Crude Surplus on Limited Russia Disruption, but Still supported by Less Supply Addition Refinery Normalized Refinery Margin but Still Hig

  35. Slide 35: Final Remark

    FINAL REMARK -35- Tharoll

  36. Slide 36: Looking Forward

    -36- Looking Forward Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remark Macro Perspective Outlook Refinery & lube business to be ✓ Increasing energy demand supported by limited new investment in long term supported by and high demand for petrochemical economic growth and specialty feedstock ✓ Environme

  37. Slide 37: Appendix

    -37- APPENDIX • Dividend • CAPEX • Financial Performance • Optimised & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products

  38. Slide 38: Dividend Payment

    Dividend -38- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend Annual DPS 1.80 3.50 3.50 4.50 2.75 2.55 2.00 3.30 2.70 2.30 1.16 2.70 4.50 5.2

  39. Slide 39: TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan

    CAPEX -39- TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Updated as of July 2022 Estimated Budgeting for Actual Investment Plan Project 1H/22 2H/22 - 2025 CFP project * 282 1,140 Total Ongoing CAPEX 26 141 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 5 48 Infrastructure Im

  40. Slide 40: Q2/22 - Financial Performance

    Financial Performance -40- Q2/22 - Financial Performance TOP Group Net Profit Gross Refining Margin - GRM Unit : Million Baht (MB) $/bbl Q1/22 Q2/22 1H/21 1H/22 Q1/22 Q2/22 1H/21 1H/22 Market GRM 6.4 25.1 0.6 16.1 7,183 MB 25,327 MB 5,483 MB 32,510 MB Stock 16.2 7.8 5.5 11.8 Gain/(Loss) Gain on GPSC

  41. Slide 41: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

    Crude & Production -41- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Reference Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Price petroleum

  42. Slide 42: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

    World GRM -42- -42- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin Total Capacity: 3.45 MBD Total Capacity: 17.9 MBD Total Capacity: 14.4 MBD 89.3% 67.6% 72.9%

  43. Slide 43: Global Crude Oil Inventories

    Inventories -43- -43- Global Crude Oil Inventories

  44. Slide 44: Global Gasoline Inventories

    Inventories -44- -44- Global Gasoline Inventories

  45. Slide 45: Global Middle Distillate Inventories

    Inventories -45- -45- Global Middle Distillate Inventories

  46. Slide 46: Global Fuel Oil Inventories

    Inventories -46- -46- Global Fuel Oil Inventories

  47. Slide 47: China's Refined Product Exports

    Inventories -47- -47- China’s Refined Product Exports

  48. Slide 48: Domestic LPG Demand

    Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -48- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day • In 5M’22, LPG demand increased by 9.5% YoY mainly following the increase in automobile and petrochemical sectors. LPG demand in the automobile and petrochemical sector rose by 24.8% and 1

  49. Slide 49: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand

    Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -49- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 6M’22, Gasoline demand was decreased by 0.1% YoY to an average of 29.7 MML/day. The demand was effected by the pressure of Omicron variant outbr

  50. Slide 50: Domestic Jet Demand

    Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -50- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 6M’22, Jet consumption increased by 60.2% YoY. The demand was recovered from fully opening the country by canceling of Test & Go program for fully vaccinated travelers since 1 May’22.

  51. Slide 51: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand

    Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -51- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 6M’22, Gasoil demand increased by 16.1% YoY. The demand was supported by the improve of economic activities and also supported by government that capped diesel price

  52. Slide 52: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

    Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -52- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 6M’22, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 20.2% YoY, as the demand in the transportation sector, which accounted for 53.7% of total Fuel Oil demand, rose by 11.1% YoY, align

  53. Slide 53: Thank You

    -53- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976

Thai Oil Public Company — Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation on 6ix