Royal Vopak Nv · EURONEXT:VPK
Royal Vopak Nv — Investor Day (July 2009)
50 slides from Royal Vopak Nv's investor day presentation, Jul 3, 2009
Slide 1: Dirk van Slooten, Managing Director Vopak LNG
_ Dirk van Slooten Managing Director Vopak LNG Analyst Meeting 3 July 2009 – – –
Slide 2: Vopak LNG
Vopak LNG The LNG Chain Market fundamentals Global trading patterns Vopak LNG Strategy Gate terminal Other Projects – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 2
Slide 3: The LNG industry has a relatively young history
The LNG industry has a relatively “young history” The Methane Pioneer, a Converted Bulk Carrier, Transported the World’s First LNG Ship Cargo from Lake Charles, USA to Canvey Island, UK in 1964 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 3
Slide 4: What is LNG?
What is LNG? LNG = Liquified Natural Gas • Cleanest fossil fuel • Colourless • No Smell • - 162 °C • Liquid (boiling) • 600 x volume reduction Efficient Energy Transport – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 4
Slide 5: LNG Delivery Chain: Different Business models
LNG Delivery Chain: Different Business models Segments of the LNG value chain Production Liquefaction Shipping Regasification Markets Oil and Gas European Utility Business Models ex terminal-contract Producer Oil and Gas ex ship-contract European Utility Producer Oil and Gas fob-contract European Ut
Slide 6: LNG Delivery Chain: Different Business models
LNG Delivery Chain: Different Business models Vopak Segments of the LNG value chain Production Liquefaction Shipping Regasification Markets Oil and Gas European Utility Business Models ex terminal-contract Producer Oil and Gas ex ship-contract European Utility Producer Oil and Gas fob-contract Europ
Slide 7: Vopak LNG
Vopak LNG The LNG Chain Market fundamentals Global trading patterns Vopak LNG Strategy Gate terminal Other Projects – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 7
Slide 8: The industry is growing rapidly
The industry is growing rapidly 2013: 300 MTPA LNG production 500 400 in mtpa 300 200 100 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 In Operation in Nov 2008 Under Construction in Nov 2008 Planned Expected Production * source Andy Flower 2009 – – – Analyst
Slide 9: Demand growing rapidly as well, demand/supply gap in the medium term
Demand growing rapidly as well, demand/supply gap in the medium term 600 500 400 in mtpa 300 200 100 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 In Operation in Nov 2008 Under Construction in Nov 2008 Planned Expected Production Forecast Demand * source Andy
Slide 10: European market (excl. Russia) 550 Bcma
European market (excl. Russia) 550 Bcma Norway Alaska Sachalin 550 Middle East Algeria Egypt W. Africa Trinidad S.E. Asia Peru Australia World market: 2800 Bcma Markets Global LNG : 250 Bcma – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 10
Slide 11: The European market: Towards an integrated, deep & liquid market
The European market: Towards an integrated, deep & liquid market • Markets are opening-up due to EU- legislation and ownership unbundling (2nd and 3rd gas directive); • Indigenous supply is running out and a demand-supply gap is opening up (UK, Netherlands); • Increased dependence on countries outsi
Slide 12: North America market 725 Bcma
North America market 725 Bcma (Shale gas: 70 - 150 Bcma) Norway Alaska Sachalin 725 Middle East Algeria Egypt W. Africa Trinidad S.E. Asia Peru Australia World market: 2800 Bcma Markets Global LNG : 250 Bcma – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 12
Slide 13: North-American market: demand for future LNG growth limited
North-American market: Demand for future LNG growth limited due to large shale gas finds + impact of recession EIA Energy outlook 2003 – 2009: US Natural Gas Demand 2003 - 2030 100 90 80 In Bcf/d 70 60 50 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Dema nd Out
Slide 14: North Asia + Asean market
North Asia + Asean market: 230 Bcma + 165 Bcma Norway Alaska Sachalin 230 Middle East Algeria Egypt 165 W. Africa Trinidad S.E. Asia Peru Australia World market: 2800 Bcma Markets Global LNG : 250 Bcma – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 14
Slide 15: Asian markets: Traditional + very much closed-shop
Asian markets: Traditional + very much closed-shop • The traditional LNG markets, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, dominate this market • Chinese do not allow foreign access and ownership in LNG terminals; • Many countries in ASEAN Region provide opportunities due to: - decrease of indigenous supplies; - cl
Slide 16: Vopak LNG
Vopak LNG The LNG Chain Market fundamentals Global trading patterns Vopak LNG Strategy Gate terminal Other Projects – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 16
Slide 17: Before 2005: a very transparent trade pattern
Fundamental changes in the industry; Before 2005: a very transparent trade pattern* Alaska 550 725 230 Middle East Algeria W. Africa Trinidad S.E. Asia Australia Markets LNG World market: 1800 Bcma Piped gas Global LNG : 150 Bcma * source BG-group + inhouse analysis – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/20
Slide 18: After 2010: a globalised gas industry
Fundamental changes in the industry; After 2010: a globalised gas industry* Norway Alaska Sachalin ?? 550 ?? 725 230 Middle East ?? Algeria 165 Egypt W. Africa Trinidad S.E. Asia Peru Australia Markets LNG important ? questionable World market: 2800 Bcma Self supporting Global LNG : 250 Bcma market
Slide 19: Vopak LNG
Vopak LNG The LNG Chain Market fundamentals Global trading patterns Vopak LNG Strategy Gate terminal Other Projects – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 19
Slide 20: Vopak LNG strategy
Vopak LNG strategy Market • Demand / Supply gap • Access to grid for customers • Able to pay world market LNG prices Suitable Location Business model • Independent Operator • Open Access business model • Multi customers Partner(s) • Value adding to project • Local political clout – – – Analyst Meeti
Slide 21: Vopak LNG criteria (1)
Vopak LNG criteria (1) Market willing to accept LNG imports • Gas shortage • Governmental strategic view (security of supply) • Energy companies looking for alternative supply • Regulatory environment Suitable Location • Port environment • Gasgrid connection • Permits and Licensees obtainable (Nimby
Slide 22: Vopak LNG criteria (2)
Vopak LNG criteria (2) Economic Drivers • Profitable IRR & sufficient cashflow • Shareholders return • Bankability Credibility of Sponsor • Partner(ship) • Quality of staff • International track record • Time and money for the development • Competitors analysis Reliable cost estimates – – – Analyst
Slide 23: Our Focus: Europe plus Asean markets
Our Focus: Europe plus Asean markets Norway Alaska Sachalin 550 Middle East Algeria Egypt W. Africa 165 Trinidad S.E. Asia Peru Australia World market: 2800 Bcma Markets Global LNG : 250 Bcma – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 23
Slide 24: European market areas of interest
European market areas of interest North-West Europe Gate terminal (under construction) Baltic Rostock (feasibility) South Europe Under investigation South-East Europe / Mediteranian Under investigation – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 24
Slide 25: Key elements for success
Key elements for success Strict & Structured Project approach: • Business case • Project Phases • Stakeholders • Project Team • Risks • Communication – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 25
Slide 26: Vopak LNG
Vopak LNG The LNG Chain Market fundamentals Global trading patterns Vopak LNG Strategy Gate terminal Other Projects – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 26
Slide 27: The Gate terminal
The Gate terminal – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 27
Slide 28: Gate: Initial and second phase
Gate: Initial and second phase • Capacity 12 BCM • 2 jetties, unloading rate 12.500 m3/hr • Vessel capacity up to approx. 265,000 m3 • 3 LNG tanks of 180,000 m3 each • Send-out approx. 1.7 mln m3(n)/hr – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 28
Slide 29: National Grid in Holland
National Grid in Holland Proposed LNG Terminal entry point (Maasvlakte) – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 29
Slide 30: GTS – Gas grid in Rotterdam
GTS – Gas grid in Rotterdam LNG terminal connection Legend: HTL grid (high pressure transport) RTL grid (medium pressure regional transport) Customer line (low pressure) – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 30
Slide 31: Gate terminal next to MOT at Maasvlakte
Gate terminal next to MOT at Maasvlakte LNG jetties LNG process area – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 31
Slide 32: Gate terminal: the location
Gate terminal: the location – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 32
Slide 33: Gate terminal – Overall timing
Gate terminal – Overall timing 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009/10 2011 Screening, Feasibility and Preparation FID / Project Close RFO EPC Tender Basic Design Engineering / Procurement / Construction (Pre)commissioning Main permitting process Start operations H2 2011 Site option Site lease MOU Customers HOA
Slide 34: Customer contract process
Customer contract process Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Memorandum Heads Confidentiality Throughput Signed TA of of Agreement Agreement Understanding Agreement Objective: Objective: Objective: Objective: - Present Vopak / Gasunie - First initial interest - Binding commitment - Binding 20yrs combinatio
Slide 35: Multiple-customers using Gate terminal
Multiple-customers using Gate terminal DONG Energy, Denmark 3bcm 5% equity stake EconGas, Austria 3bcm OMV Gas International 5% equity stake Essent, the Netherlands 3bcm 5% equity stake EON Ruhrgas, Germany 3bcm 5% equity stake – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 35
Slide 36: Site Development: February 2008
Site Development: February 2008 Gate terminal site with pre-load – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 36
Slide 37: Site development: Gate terminal work in progress
Site development: Gate terminal work in progress – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 37
Slide 38: Site development LNG-tank construction
Site development LNG-tank construction – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 38
Slide 39: Tank March 2009
Tank March 2009 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 39
Slide 40: Tank March 2009
Tank March 2009 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 40
Slide 41: Construction April 2009
Construction April 2009 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 41
Slide 42: Construction April 2009
Construction April 2009 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 42
Slide 43: Tanks May 2009
Tanks May 2009 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 43
Slide 44: Tank 1- Airlift Roof, June 2009
Tank 1- Airlift Roof, June 2009 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 44
Slide 45: Tank 1- Airlift Roof, June 2009
Tank 1- Airlift Roof, June 2009 – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 45
Slide 46: View from Hoek van Holland
View from Hoek van Holland – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 46
Slide 47: Vopak LNG
Vopak LNG The LNG Chain Market fundamentals Global trading patterns Vopak LNG Strategy Gate terminal Other Projects – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 47
Slide 48: Eemshaven Air view
Eemshaven Air view – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 48
Slide 49: Rostock Air view
Rostock Air view – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 49
Slide 50: www.vopak.com
– – – – Analyst Meeting 2009 3/7/2009 50 www.vopak.com