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BP — Oil Technology Centenary 2013, Imperial College London
20 slides from BP's conference presentation, Nov 7, 2013
Slide 1: Future trends in oil and gas exploration
Future trends in oil and gas exploration Mike Daly Executive Vice President, Exploration BP plc Oil Technology Centenary 2013 Imperial College London
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer “This document is made available for information only and on the following conditions. The BP Group, along with its officers, directors and employees makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the quality, accuracy and/or completeness of the information, views or op
Slide 3: Global trends influencing exploration
Global trends influencing exploration Future resource trends • Deepwater: the drill out of passive margins and deltas • Arctic: ice-bound offshore • Re-exploration of onshore basins and shallow waters Unexplored Rock Volume Tight oil giants, Shale plays & EOR Future technology trends • Striving
Slide 4: Global discovered resource and yet-to-find
Global discovered resource and yet-to-find 2004: Yoloten 67 bnboe Conventional Discovered: 4.5 tnboe 1992: Qatar Arch 103 bnboe 1979: Troll 5 10 bnboe 1971: North Field Deepwater Arctic Onshore Shelf 193 bnboe sub-ice 4 1948: Ghawar 3 176 bnboe Conventional YTF: ~ 1 tnboe Tnboe 1936-40: Supergiants
Slide 5: Exploration delivery – past and future
Exploration delivery – past and future Deepwater - cumulative discovered resource Deepwater (400m+) discoveries creaming curve • The growth and decline of deepwater • The emergence of the sub-ice arctic 200 Brazil, E. Africa, 2000’s Levant • Sustained delivery from onshore & shelf 150 GoM Pg bnboe B
Slide 6: Material new plays of the past decade – all deepwater
Material new plays of the past decade – all deepwater East Mediterranean pre-Messinian 7 East India 5.5 gas GoM Angola 5 Palaeogene Congo Fan 11 13 38 East Africa gas Deepwater discovered volumes (bnboe) S Atlantic • Deeper stratigraphy in existing provinces pre-salt Source: IH S EDIN / BP • Delta’s
Slide 7: Arctic yet-to-find
Arctic yet-to-find 127 Alaska: 72 R Chukchi Beaufort 1 N Slope 0.1 Chukchi C Beaufort E Siberia 7 Laptev 10 S Kara 2 Arctic Islands 5 N Kara 17 Baffin NE Greenland 7 31 N Barents 62 7 10 YTF volume (bnboe) Lofoten Source: USGS 2008 R Barents 7
Slide 8: Arctic frontiers: untested basins with great DHI's
Arctic frontiers: untested basins with great DHI’s 50 km S N R E95 E38 R 2 km E95 Amplitude 2 km - - - - 2 km Line 5404 Pokak 3D VTI CI 3 km C.I. 50m 8
Slide 9: Ice management key issue
Ice management key issue Lomonosov Ridge, 2004: seabed coring, drifting pack ice 9
Slide 10: And society's opinion?
And society’s opinion? 10
Slide 11: Onshore frontier basins
Onshore frontier Hasi Messaoud Ghadames basins Murzuq Taoudeni Strongly asymmetric resource distribution - North and South 80bnboe Congo Etosha Saharan Sub-Saharan Africa Africa Kalahari Remaining Produced *Statistics calculated from IHS onshore rifted basin areas. Source: Basin Resources (IHS, 2013
Slide 12: The Congo: 1.2m km2 of unexplored basin
The Congo: 1.2m km2 of unexplored basin Sam ba (TD 2039m ) Depth TWT (Approx.) H7 H7 H6 Jurassic Stanleyville H6 2 km H5 H5 H4 Ordovician Alolo shale H4 H3 4 km H3 Carbonate H2 Infra-Cambrian 6 km H2 Carbonate/Evaporite 8 km H6 Base Jurassic Unconformity H5 Hercynian Unconformity (Late Paleozoic) H4
Slide 13: Congo and Oman Infra-Cambrian seaways
Congo and Oman Infra-Cambrian seaways Oman time equivalent Ara Gp. petroleum system ‘U’ shale and Athel Congo silicilyte Congo source Oman rocks have delivered ~20bnboe 540Ma Reconstruction Modified from: Palaeogeography (Chris Scotese PaleoAtlas, 2009) 13
Slide 14: Unexplored rock volume in mature basins
Unexplored rock volume in mature basins 10,000’ 10,000’ 20,000’ 20,000’ 30,000’ 30,000’ East Texas: >100,000 wells total East Texas: wells below 14,000’ Industry 3D seismic data 14
Slide 15: The Bakken: dramatic reserves growth
The Bakken: dramatic reserves growth 15
Slide 16: Exploring for 'reserves growth'…
Exploring for ‘reserves growth’… 16
Slide 17: By exploiting missed pay – a lot of it!
By exploiting missed pay – a lot of it! Cleveland Desmoinesian Source: Reservoir Visualization IHS well completion zones in red Inc. Copyright 2013 17
Slide 18: Source rock (shale) plays
Source rock (shale) plays Eagleford: drilling, logging and evaluating the type outcrop The distribution of shale is known… …understanding quality is key. Instead, success will be predicated upon: − best shale (e.g. Eagleford) − cheapest operating model − scientific understanding / technology − deplo
Slide 19: Exploration convergence with EOR
Exploration convergence with EOR • 1200 bnboe remaining HCIP in Middle East carbonates • 300 bnboe HCIP in rest of world carbonates • Each 1% EOR increase = 15 bnboe • Sweet spot identification key criteria • 1380 bnboe HCIP globally in clastics/shales 19
Slide 20: Future trends in oil & gas exploration
Future trends in oil & gas exploration Resource trends • Deepwater: T and K deltas; plays explored up from the source rock • Arctic: ice-bound offshore, Russia is leading • Re-exploration of the onshore (and shallow water) basins Needs a new image, or a new idea, or new technology Onshore fronti
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