Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (August 2016)
78 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, August 2016
Slide 1: Presentation to Investors August 2016
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors August 2016
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil
Slide 4: Corporate Governance Policy
-4- Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Corporate Governance Policy Stakeholders The board of directors, management • Truthfully report company’s situation and and all staff shall commit to moral future trends to all stakeholders equally principles, equitable treatment to all
Slide 5: Thaioil Group Sustainable Development
-5- Thaioil Group Sustainable Development 3 consecutive years for • Member of DJSI Emerging Markets • Highest Ranked Level in RobecoSAM Gold Class of Global Oil & Gas Companies & 2 consecutive years for • No.1 in ENERGY industry around the WORLD (Industry Group Leader) • No.1 in Oil & Gas Producers
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX
Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview
-7- TOP Group Business Overview
Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 11.2% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major 17.3% shareholder and key 49.1% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length 22.5% and in adherence with PTT strong corporate 49.1%
Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
-9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Slide 10: Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
-10- Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery
Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
-11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 5 Oil & Chemical Tankers Mitr Phol 3
Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
-12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUELGAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 JET KMT-2 50,000 CDU-3 165,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 Thai Lube Base HVU-2 HVU-3 FCCU HDS-2 10,400
Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,252 kbd 1) Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share 36% 33% Nameplate Capacity market market Fang (3 kbpd) shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner Q2/16 Q1/16 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso
Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
-14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the key domestic markets and VIETNAM Indochina Bangkok Sri
Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
-15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** % S = 1.43 % S = 2.52 % S = 0.78 % S = 1.97 2% SAUDI 1 LPG Others *** 5% API = 32.0 API = 31.2 API = 39.4 API =
Slide 16: Refinery: Ongoing High Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales Portion
-16- Refinery: Ongoing High Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales Portion TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate 1H/2015 1H/2016 110% 109% 108% KBD 110% 106%107%107% 107% 102% 6.2% 98% 800 600 4.3% 90% 94% 95% 94% 95% 92% 94% 91% 400 10.9% 88% 6.1% 85% 200 7
Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking
-17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross margin and overall performance range and come up with comp
Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights
-18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati
Slide 19: Key Financial Highlights
-19- Key Financial Highlights
Slide 20: Q2/16 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -20- Q2/16 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Soften MKT GRM pressured by lower Gasoline spread Implication as high inventory worldwide which was more than Soften Mkt GRM at 4.4 * enough to serve demand during US driving season & $/bbl (Q1/16 = 6.1 $/bbl) Muslim Ramadan Rising
Slide 21: Q2/16 Key Achievements
Key Highlights -21- Q2/16 Key Achievements Key Achievements Q2/16 TOP Group Net Profit Unit : million THB (MB) Operational Maximized Refinery run & optimized run Excellence for Aromatics & Lube Base Net Operating Profit (before tax) Stock G/(L) (before tax) Reversal of NRV/(NRV) (before tax) Other
Slide 22: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
-22- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (Net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) 8.6 7.8 6.4 6.2 6.9 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.1 5.2 4.1 4.6 4.5
Slide 23: Financial Performance
Financial -23- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 446,241 399,125 414,575 390,090 31,099 318,391 28,760 293,569 22,808 22,337 25,492 284,123 22,897 23,868 21,393 20,350 17,381 19,713 19,541 17
Slide 24: Q2/16 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -24- Q2/16 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Jun 16 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 192,166 206,209 74,974 million THB 18,257 million THB Cash & ST (US$ 2,121 million (US$ 517 mi
Slide 25: 2015 Dividend Payment
Financial -25- 2015 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 9.40 9.19 1H dividend Year Dividend 7.82 8.13 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.39 4.57 2.75 2.00 2.00 1.00 3.5
Slide 26: Strategic Investment Plans
-26- Strategic Investment Plans
Slide 27: Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out, Pursuing Sustainability
Strategy -27- Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability Vision A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific END Vision Top quartile Top Qrt ROIC & DJSI Measurement performer NP Growth (Sustainability) by 2021 • Operational excellence • Complete p
Slide 28: Thaioil Group Investment Matrix
Strategy -28- Thaioil Group Investment Matrix New Geography Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia Integrated Downstream (B2B, B2C/retail, logistics, trading) New Business AEC (Technology driven) Specialties Core Business Growth Integrated Refinery Solvent, Marine, Power, Ethanol Thailand Refinery Downstre
Slide 29: Strategic Investment Plan: Updated CAPEX plan
Updated CAPEX plan -29- Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Remaining capital investment Projects COD Total Project Cost Our CAPEX (2011-2018) 2015 2016 2017 2018 investments will Reliability, efficiency and flexibility 2013-2018 353 21 60 5 4 cover improvements improvement in pl
Slide 30: Key Projects Update: Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP
Key Projects Update -30- Key Projects Update : Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP Project : LAB Project : TOP SPP TPX 75% & Mitsui 25% , CAPEX 400 M$ TOP owns 100% , CAPEX 380 M$ Feedstock : Kerosene 532 KTA, Benzene 33 KTA Power capacity : 239 MW (20% TOP Group & 80% EGAT) Product : LAB 100 KTA, By
Slide 31: Study Project: Clean Fuel Project (CFP)
Project Update -31- Study Project : Clean Fuel Project (CFP) Main objectives of CFP Enhance competitive advantage of the refinery and maintain 1st quartile performer Enhance capability to upgrade lower value product into higher value product and ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil CFP
Slide 32: 2H-16 & 1H-17 Market Outlook
-32- 2H-16 & 1H-17 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 33: Crude Oil
-33- CRUDE OIL
Slide 34: 2016 Global GDP Growth by IMF
Macroeconomics & Crude Oil -34- 2016 Global GDP Growth by IMF IMF estimated the 2016’s Global GDP growth at 3.1% Growth (%YoY) China US EU World 2015 2016 2017 12 Jul- Apr-16(2) Jul-16(1) Apr-16(2) Jul-16(1) 16(1) 10 USA 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 8 7.28 5.4 EU 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 6 4.2 3.5 3.3 3
Slide 35: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection
Macroeconomics & Crude Oil -35- Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasted 2017’s global oil demand to grow by 1.3 MBD, driven by Asia Europe FSU North America Unit: KBD 250 90 260 50 2015 110 2016 30 150 2017 110 Middle East -40 150 140 Latin America Asia 70 1070 0 880 830 Africa -40 -50 15
Slide 36: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection
Macroeconomics & Crude Oil -36- Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated 2017’s Non-OPEC oil supply growth to grow by 200 KBD North America Europe FSU 160 Unit: KBD 850 130 70 2015 140 2016 -50 2017 -90 -50 Middle East -570 Latin America Asia -40 -30 -40 110 170 230 Africa 80 -130 -110 -320 -
Slide 37: Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalance is Still at Risk
Crude Oil -37- Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalance is Still at Risk Dubai Price Movement $/BBL China’s Stock OPEC failed to No consensus on 1 2 80 Market Crash agree on an output freeze output ceiling BREXIT 60 40 Iran’s Nuclear 20 Canada Wildfire OPEC & Deal Done Iran’s Nuclear & Nigerian outage
Slide 38: Bearish Sentiments over Rising Crude Oil Supply in Q3-16
Crude Oil -38- Bearish Sentiments over Rising Crude Oil Supply 1 in Q3-16 A Large Supply Disruptions are Resolving B Libya to Restore Output to 900 KBD in Dec’16 MBD Global Crude Supply Outages MBD Libya’s Oil Production Percent 4.0 5.0% 2.0 4.0% Civil Wars 3.0 3.0% 1.5 2.0 Target 900 KBD by 2.0% 1.
Slide 39: Lower Crude Oil Surplus, Driven By Slowing U.S. Outputs and Limited Iranian Production
Crude Oil -39- Lower Crude Oil Surplus, Driven By 2 Slowing U.S. Outputs and Limited Iranian Production A Slowing U.S. production at Low Prices B US Shale Oil Set to Decline after the CAPEX Cuts Breakeven for New U.S. Production (WTI $/BBL) US Shale Oil Output Growth (YoY) $/BBL MBD 100 -0.7 MBD YoY
Slide 40: Petroleum Products
-40- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 41: Higher Refinery Margins in Q4-16 On Improved Middle Distillate Cracks
Refinery -41- Higher Refinery Margins in Q4-16 On Improved Middle Distillate Cracks Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.7 5.8 6.1 5.0 4.7 Y2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Y2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16TD 3Q16F 4Q16F 2016F 1H-17F Actual Forecast Sources: Reuters, TOP’s estimate ($/BBL) Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3TD-1
Slide 42: Soft Gasoline on Supply Glut in Short-term, but Limited Downside in Q4-16
Refinery -42- Soft Gasoline on Supply Glut in Short-term, 1 but Limited Downside in Q4-16 A Supply Surplus on Refinery Yield Switching B Rising Demand in Q4-16 on Australian demand Asia Pacific Refinery Gasoline and Gasoil Yield Asia Pacific Gasoline Demand KBD Percent 7,000 Ramadan Australia’s 37%
Slide 43: Lower Middle Distillate Cracks in Q3-16, But Recover in Q4-16
Refinery -43- Lower Middle Distillate Cracks in Q3-16, 2 But Recover in Q4-16 from Higher Demand A Chinese Gasoil Export on the High Side B Softer Demand During Monsoon Season KBD Chinese Gasoil Export MBD Indian Gasoil Demand 400 1.8 Rainy 300 1.6 Season 200 1.4 100 1.2 2016 2015 0 1.0 Jan-15 Jul-1
Slide 44: Demand Growth Better Than Refinery Addition
Refinery -44- Demand Growth Better Than Refinery Addition CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Middle East China Australia Japan India Other AP Vietnam Net Addition AP & ME Demand KBD 3500 3141 3000 2500 2000 1386 1304 1500 1257 875 1000 518 454 507 479 500 181 259 88 0 -500 -1000 2009 2010 2
Slide 45: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic -45- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth Average 1H-16(B) Year on Year Y 2015(B) Y 2016(C) 2011-2015(B) (vs. 1H-15) Mogas (A) +7.1% +13.3% +10.9% +10.0% Jet/Kero +4.4% +9.7% +6.1% +5.5% Diesel (A) +3.4% +4.0% +4.3% +4.2% Total +4.4% +7.1% +6.2% +5.9% GDP +3.4% +2.8% N/A +3
Slide 46: Aromatics
-46- AROMATICS
Slide 47: Aromatics Market Softens from New Capacity Addition
Aromatics -47- Aromatics Market Softens from New Capacity Addition despite Growing Aromatics Demand Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 382 332 315 193 288 156 255 246 233 256 138 115 101 97 98 74 Y2016F 4Q15 1Q16 4Q16F 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Y2015 2Q16 1H17F 3Q16TD 1H17F
Slide 48: Softer PX Market from New Capacity Addition
Aromatics -48- 1 Softer PX Market from New Capacity Addition A New PX Capacity Addition Pressures Market B Reducing Operation Rate amid Higher Capacity AP & ME Effective PX Capacity Addition AP & ME PX Demand and Capacity Operation Mil TON Mil TON Rate 2017 1.5 60 Demand: + 4.3% YoY 90% Capacity: +
Slide 49: Softer BZ Market from New Capacity Addition
Aromatics -49- 2 Softer BZ Market from New Capacity Addition A New BZ Capacity will Come Online in 2017 B Firmer Demand Growth Supports BZ market AP & ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition AP & ME BZ Demand and Capacity Operation Mil TON Rate Mil TON 2017 60 90% 1.0 Demand: + 4.0% YoY 50 Capacity: + 3.5
Slide 50: Base Oil & Bitumen
-50- BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 51: Softer Base Oil Market in Q4-16 from Lower Demand amid Higher Supply
Base Oil & Bitumen -51- Softer Base Oil Market in Q4-16 from Lower Demand amid Higher Supply 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 Global Additional Nameplate Capacity Mil TON 486 495 506 8.0 450 431 427 409 466 369 399 6.0 4.8 4.0 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 4Q16F Y2016F Y2013 Y2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Y2015 1Q16 2Q16 1H
Slide 52: Stable Bitumen Market in Q4-16 from Pick-up Demand
Base Oil & Bitumen -52- Stable Bitumen Market in Q4-16 from Pick-up Demand before Year-end amid High Inventory Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Import Volume of Major Asian Players in 2016 82 98 KTON/MONTH China KTON/MONTH India 56 600 200 23 20 300 100 -14 -32 -7 -48 -40 0 0 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 1H17F 3Q16TD
Slide 53: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
-53- Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 54: Steady LAB Market from Tight Supply
LAB -54- Steady LAB Market from Tight Supply LAB Market LAB CFR SEA - BZ FOB Korea ($/TON) KTA Effective AP & ME Plant Maintenance 120 591 100 583 582 569 549 557 80 544 540 528 513 60 40 20 4Q16F Y2016F Y2013 Y2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Y2015 1Q16 2Q16 1H2017F 3Q16TD 0 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 1H-17 L
Slide 55: Conclusion
-55- CONCLUSION
Slide 56: Q4-16 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -56- Q4-16 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. Q3-16) Crude Oil Higher crude oil prices from slowing U.S. oil production Higher refinery margins from improved middle distillate Refinery cracks Softer Aromatics market from higher capacity addition Aromatics despite growing Aromatics demand Soft
Slide 57: Appendix
-57- APPENDIX • Q2/16 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 58: Q2/16: Soften Market GRM from Lower Gasoline Spread
Refining -58- Q2/16: Soften Market GRM from Lower Gasoline Spread but Higher Accounting GRM due to Inventory Gain Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2015 2016 2015 Q1/16 Q2/16 1H/16 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3TD* 1H FY15 107% 109% 108% DUBAI (DB) 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.
Slide 59: Q2/16: Stable Aromatics Supported by Good Downstream Demand
Aromatics/LAB -59- Q2/16: Stable Aromatics Supported by Good Downstream Demand Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2015 2016 2015 Q1/16 Q2/16 1H/16 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3TD* 1H FY15 80% 80% 80% PX*-ULG95 255 246 233 288 332 315 382 324 256 Market Highlight BZ-ULG95 98 115 74 101 1
Slide 60: Q2/16: Good LAB Margins Supported by Strong Regional Demand
Aromatics/LAB -60- Q2/16: Good LAB Margins Supported by Strong Regional Demand LAB Price and Spread LAB’s Production & P2F Margin Performance Highlight 2016 2016 + Improved P2F due to an uptick spread over BZ $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3TD* 1H Q1 Q2 1H supported by firm demand in LAB 1,087 1,156 1,175 1,122 LAB P
Slide 61: Q2/16: Stable Base Oil Contribution
Lube Base Oil -61- Q2/16: Stable Base Oil Contribution as Higher Seasonal Demand Offset Weaken Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2015 2016 2015 Q1/16 Q2/16 1H/16 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3TD* 1H FY15 88% 84% 86% 500SN-HSFO 369 399 506 450 427 409 466 418 431 % Base Oil
Slide 62: Q2/16 Power Sector Performance
Power -62- Q2/16 Power Sector Performance…One of Future Earnings Driver Power Business Sector SPP Equity holding in TP / TOP SPP GPSC **** Power & Steam Sales ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP) 287 GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Equity method is applied to recognize E
Slide 63: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM
Performance Breakdown -63- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 9.9 12.2 12.8 13.0 12.9 7.1 6.3 1.4 Product to Feed Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 Q2/16 1H/16 1H/15 8.8 7.4 6.6 8.5 6.1 8.1 4.4 5.7 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 Q2/16 1H/16 1H/15 16.3 21.
Slide 64: Q2/16: Performance Breakdown
Performance Breakdown -64- Q2/16: Performance Breakdown Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: max run to capture strong domestic market • Aromatic/LAB: optimized aromatic run serving good downstream demand & more contribution from LAB due to improving margins •
Slide 65: Q2/16 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -65- Q2/16 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (million THB) Q2/16 Q1/16 QoQ+/(-) Q2/15 YoY+/(-) 1H/16 1H/15 YoY+/(-) Sales Revenue 72,368 56,790 15,578 79,036 (6,668) 129,158 150,402 (21,244) Hedging Gain (147) 27 (174) (187) 40 (119) (111) (8) EBITDA 10,545 6,653 3,892 10,004 541 17,198 16,213 98
Slide 66: 1H/16 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -66- 1H/16 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Operating Cash Flow Investments 1H/16 1H/15 1H/16 1H/15 Operating Cash Flow 12,791 12,301 Investments (20,383) (9,769) Net income & non-cash adj. 16,891 14,502 + ST investments (16,595) (3,351) CAPEX (PP&E)
Slide 67: Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Due to Refinery Closures
Refinery -67- Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Due to Refinery Closures CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Start-up Country Nameplate Company period) (KBD) AP Additional Demand ME Additional Demand Q1-15 UAE 417 Ruwais Middle East China Q2-15 China 70 Local Rizhao Lanqiao Australia Japan Indi
Slide 68: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -68- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin 95.49% 60.94% 60.94% Total Capacity: 17.5 MBD Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD Total Capacity: 4.9 MBD Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil
Slide 69: Crude Inventory
Inventories -69- Crude Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 70: Global Distillate Inventory
Inventories -70- Global Distillate Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 71: Fuel Oil Inventory
Inventories -71- Fuel Oil Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 72: China's Product Export
China Export -72- China’s Product Export Source: Norwegian Energy
Slide 73: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand -73- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • In H1/16, LPG demand fell significantly by 12.1%YoY on account of lower usages in all sectors. Most of the decline came from petrochemical sector which its feedstock switching from LPG to Naphtha leading to
Slide 74: Domestic Gasoline Demand
Thailand petroleum demand -74- Domestic Gasoline Demand Thailand Gasoline Demand GASOLINE Demand Highlight • In H1/2016, Mogas demand jumped sharply by 10.9%YoY to an average 28.58 ML/day. This was mainly due to lower retail prices and higher number of passenger cars since the end of the last year,
Slide 75: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand -75- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight • In H1/2016, Jet consumption increased significantly by 6.1% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to booming tourism industry. The expansion in tourism sector was a result of increasing n
Slide 76: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand -76- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight • In the first half of 2016, Diesel demand rose gradually by 4.3% YoY as relatively low retail prices boosted the consumption amidst higher number of accumulated commercial vehicles. Neverthe
Slide 77: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand -77- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand FUEL OIL Demand Highlight • In H1/2016, Fuel Oil consumption jumped rapidly by 15.6%YoY, as a result of sharply increase by 24.0%YoY in transportation demand. Last year, transport activity in Thai fishery was pressured
Slide 78: Thank You
-78- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (August 2016) on 6ix