Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Technical Presentation (October 2011)
8 slides from Xcel Energy's technical presentation, Oct 12, 2011
Slide 1: Gas and Power Market Price Forecasting
Gas and Power Market Price Forecasting Sean Connolly Manager, Risk Analytics October 12, 2011
Slide 2: Natural Gas Price Forecasting Methodology
Natural Gas Price Forecasting Methodology Update forecast with latest information at time of analyses Henry Hub forecast “4-Source Blend” is an average of three consultants’ long term forecasts and the current NYMEX strip Forecasts are generally updated semi-annually CERA (April and October)
Slide 3: Recent Henry Hub Composite Forecast
Recent Henry Hub Composite Forecast (Oct. 3, 2011) $12.00 $10.00 (Nominal $/MMBtu) $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 3
Slide 4: Natural Gas Delivered Price
Natural Gas Delivered Price Basis differential is the current market price The price from the last year quoted is carried forward through the end of the study period Existing units: Use the hub from where gas is traditionally procured New Units: Determine most likely general location of unit
Slide 5: Waha Basis
Recent Waha Basis Forecast (Oct. 3, 2011) $0.00 -$0.05 (Nominal $/MMBtu) -$0.10 -$0.15 -$0.20 -$0.25 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 5
Slide 6: Electricity Market Prices
Electricity Market Prices Based on the “4-Source Blend” natural gas price and … The average of PIRA, CERA, and Wood Mackenzie implied heat rate forecasts to derive the electricity price ($/MWh) Base forecast does not include an embedded CO2 price The 10/3/11 forecast does incorporate CSAPR
Slide 7: SPP Composite Electricity
Recent SPP Composite Electricity Forecast (Oct. 3, 2011) $100.00 Peak $80.00 (Nominal $/MWh) $60.00 Off-Peak $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 7
Slide 8: Xcel Energy
Qe Xcel Energy’ RESPONSIBLE BY NATURE™