Slide 1: Global Market Forecast: Cities, Airports & Aircraft 2019-2038
Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft 2019-2038 Christian Scherer Chief Commercial Officer Head of Airbus International
Slide 2: 2018 was a good year and 2019 looks to be another solid year
2018 was a good year and 2019 looks to be another solid year 2018 2019 7.4% 5.0% RPK growth RPK growth 3.2% 2.7% GDP growth GDP growth +280 +200 million passengers million passengers 81.9% 82.1% Record Load factor Record Load factor 9th 10th year of solid year of solid airline profitability airline
Slide 3: 10 years of strong growth and solid profitability
10 years of strong growth and solid profitability World annual added traffic (billion RPKs) Oil Gulf Asian Financial 9/11 SARS 750 Crisis Crisis Crisis Crisis Billions +600 billion RPKs 600 450 300 150 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 -150 $292 bn $269 bn profit Profit*
Slide 4: Drivers for Growth
Drivers for Growth Urbanisation Wealth Liberalisation - 2000: - 2000: - On average 47% ~ 900 million 700 net routes of World population in urban areas emerging countries Middle-Class added each year since 2000 - 2018: - 2018: 55% 2.7 billion 4 Source: UN Population, Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 5: Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient
Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient Origin & Destination traffic from/to each city 2018 5 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 6: Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient
Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient Origin & Destination traffic from/to each city 2038 6 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 7: Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a. Top 20 traffic flows (RPK) Domestic PRC20 x3.2 Domestic USA19 Intra - Western Europe18 Western Europe - USA 17 Western Europe - Middle East16 Domestic - Asia Emerging 15 x3.8 14 Domestic - India x4.8 Central Europe - Western Europe 13 Asia Developed - Asia Em
Slide 8: Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a. Top 20 traffic flows (RPK) Domestic PRC20 x3.2 Domestic USA19 x1.5 Intra - Western Europe18 x1.6 Western Europe - USA 17 x1.7 Western Europe - Middle East16 Domestic - Asia Emerging 15 x3.8 14 Domestic - India x4.8 Central Europe - Western Europe 13 Asia Deve
Slide 9: Networks are growing with more net new routes created
Networks are growing with more net new routes created Nb. of city-pairs 5,000 4,000 3,000 Created 2,000 Net new city-pairs 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -1,000 -2,000 Dropped -3,000 9 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, aircraft ≥100
Slide 10: The air transport industry has delivered strong improvements in productivity
The air transport industry has delivered strong improvements in productivity Daily Utilisation 1998 2018 8.4 10.7 +2 hours/day 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Seats per 1998 2018 160 178 +18 seats/flight RPK (m) 1998 300m +40% Flight per a/c 2018 415m 0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 400 Load Factor 19
Slide 11: Improved efficiency has delivered continuous fuel burn and CO2 reduction
Improved efficiency has delivered continuous fuel burn and CO2 reduction Fuel consumption & CO2 emissions Base 100 in 1990 based on Kilograms per RPK (avg.) 100 90 80 -53% 70 2018 vs. 1990 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 11 Source: IATA,
Slide 12: Demand for ~39,200 new aircraft deliveries by 2038
Demand for ~39,200 new aircraft deliveries by 2038 Airbus GMF18 Airbus GMF19 Gross Domestic Product 2.8% 2.8% 20-year CAGR Passenger Traffic 4.4% 4.3% 20-year CAGR Freight Traffic 3.7% 3.6% 20-year CAGR Start fleet 21,450 22,680 (Passenger & Freighter) End fleet 47,990 47,680 (Passenger & Freighter)
Slide 13: 36% of new deliveries for replacement, 64% for growth
36% of new deliveries for replacement, 64% for growth Number of aircraft 50,000 47,680 45,000 40,000 35,000 25,000 Grow 30,000 25,000 22,680 39,210 New deliveries 20,000 15,000 14,210 Replace 10,000 5,000 8,470 Stay 0 Beginning 2019 2038 New Deliveries Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats), Freighte
Slide 14: Demand for some 850 new build freighter aircraft in the next 20 years
Demand for some 850 new build freighter aircraft in the next 20 years World 20-year freighter demand, by aircraft category [2019-2038] 1,200 New Build Conversion 1,000 800 500 600 400 350 200 0 SMALL MEDIUM LARGE 10t < payload < 40t 40t < payload < 80t payload > 80t Notes: Jet aircraft (>10ton) 14 S
Slide 15: Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft
Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft 29,720 aircraft 5,370 aircraft 4,120 aircraft 76% share of total new del. 14% share of total new del. 10% share of total new del Source: Airbus GMF 2019 15 Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t
Slide 16: Our products & their core market segments
Our products & their core market segments 16
Slide 17: Unbeatable fuel efficiency
Unbeatable fuel efficiency Aircraft category Versatility on short- to Step-change economics Superior single- medium-haul operations vs competitors aisle comfort 17
Slide 18: Profitable partnership
Profitable partnership Aircraft category All-NEO design: new Up to 30% better cost 40 airlines already flying engines, Airspace cabin per seat vs previous both Families on the generation same routes 18
Slide 19: The all-new design widebody
The all-new design widebody Aircraft category Only all-new large >8,000 nm 45t lower TOW Outstanding widebody range vs competitor EIS 19
Slide 20: Summary
Summary Strong & Resilient passenger traffic growth Middle-class to increase by 50% by 2038 Air traffic (RPK) forecast to growth 4.3% p.a. 39,210 new deliveries by 2038 38,360 passenger aircraft 850 freighters ~36% of deliveries for replacement ~64% for growth 76% Small (29,720 units) 14% Medium (5,