Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP

Thai Oil Public — Q1 2011 Earnings Presentation

53 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, June 2011

  1. Slide 1: Thai Oil Group

    http://www.thaioilgroup.com

  2. Slide 2: Confidentiality notice

    The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. 2

  3. Slide 3: Vision, Mission, Value

    A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability • To emphasis good Corporate Governan

  4. Slide 4: Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders

    Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders The board of directors, • Truthfully report company’s situation and management and all staff shall commit future trends to all stakeholders equally to moral principles, equitable treatment on a timely manner. to all stakeholders

  5. Slide 5: Presentation Outline

    Presentation Outline * Q1/11 Highlights A «? Performance Analysis ° «? Market Outlook “° «? TOP Way Forward

  6. Slide 6: Q1/11 Business Highlights

    Q1/11 Business Highlights 6

  7. Slide 7: Q1/11 Business Highlights

    • Global Econ • Unrest in ME • Local refineries • LPG Ex-Ref resulting in a • Colder than normal shutdown for Price Floatation surge crude oil Euro IV since Jan 2011 • Japan’s Quake prices Strong Higher Better Realized Market GIM Domestic Sales Optimization Stock gain Utilization TOP Group Net Profi

  8. Slide 8: Performance Analysis

    on "ve Performance Analysis

  9. Slide 9: Dubai Crude Price

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials $/bbl Dubai Crude Price 160 106 $/bbl as of 20 May 140 120 100 80 78 62 60 40 44 59 68 75 77 74 75 84 101 20 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 More flow into oil market, Unrests in Middle East & WTI n

  10. Slide 10: Market GRM

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials + Strong heating oil demand in the US & Europe LPG - DB QTD (Q2) (Unit: $/bbl) GO - DB + Japan’s quake to limit exports and even turn imports for power plants -24.0 * 18.2 20.6 -33.8 -41.3 -26.2 12.4 13.0 11.3 11.4 -47.8

  11. Slide 11: Market GRM, Crude Oil Price and Stock Gain/Loss

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials (Unit: $/bbl) Crude Oil Price - Dubai Market GRM (Unit: $/bbl) 160 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.6 6.1 1.1 3.3 140 111.7 $/bbl as of 13 June 120 78 Stock Gain/Loss (Unit: $/bbl) 100 62 0.4 3.6 6.2 2.3 0.8 80 -0.4 -0.1 Accounting GRM 60

  12. Slide 12: Flexible production by diversifying crude type

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Sources of Crude Spread over Dubai Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) Others1 3% 2 4% 2 6% -14.8 9% -24.0 LPG Far East 4% 14% 14% 4% Platformate 11% Local 11% 16% 10.3 15% 12.6 Gasoline 20% 12.1 20% 20.6 Jet Middle Ea

  13. Slide 13: Domestic Oil Demand and Refinery Intake

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Domestic Oil Demand / Domestic Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand (KBD) Utilization = 106% (KBD) +6% 1,400 89% 89% 90% 90% 87% 89% 100% 84% Q1/10 1,200 80% Q1/11 +0.4% 746 788 1,000 60% +10% 800 138 155 120 160 80 192 1

  14. Slide 14: Aromatics Spot Prices and Margins

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins Aromatics %Utilization (US$/Ton) Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11 2010 Q1/11 PX-ULG95 286 226 218 456 669 87% 94% BZ-ULG95 215 159 132 152 185 Paraxylene (PX) (US$/Ton) 296 669 491 2,000 165 185 90 +

  15. Slide 15: Base Oil and Bitumen Spot Prices and Margins

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins Base oil %Production Rate (US$/Ton) Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/11 2010 Q1/11 500SN-HSFO 435 541 607 593 629 93% 98% BIT-HSFO 27 38 46 -25 -97 Lube Base Oil 544 629 722 + Tight supply acros

  16. Slide 16: Accounting GIM and Market GIM

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials (US$/bbl) 17.4 23.6 20.7 15.7 13.4 14.7 12.0 Product to Feed Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10 6.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.3 Crude Market 1.1 GRM* (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 FY/09 FY/10

  17. Slide 17: Q1/11 Net Profit Breakdown

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Refinery Aromatic Lube Base Plant Plant Ship SAKC Utilization Utilization Production Production Availability Utilization Utilization 106% 94% 94% 92% 98% 92% 97% 91% 96% 84% 84% 81% 87% 65% Q1/10 Q1/11 . Acc GRM P2F P2F

  18. Slide 18: Q1/11 Financial Results Summary

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials (US$/bbl) Q1/11 Q4/10* Q1/10* QoQ+/(-) YoY+/(-) Market GRM 6.1 3.6 3.1 2.5 3.0 Market GIM 9.7 6.2 5.7 3.5 4.0 (MB) Sales Revenue 111,842 81,244 78,957 30,598 32,885 EBITDA 12,079 6,632 3,715 5,447 8,364 Financial Charges

  19. Slide 19: Financial Ratios, Long-Term Debt, Financial Position

    Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt 1) (Unit: MB) 146,607 Total LT Debt Net Debt 137,745 Q1/11 Bt. 47,906 mn. Bt. 28,905 mn. 47,906 LT Debt* (US$ 1,574 mn.) (US$ 950 mn.) 43,563 Current 39,136 Tr

  20. Slide 20: 2011 Market Outlook

    2011 Market Outlook •Q1-2011 Market Highlights •Macroeconomics & Crude Prices •Petroleum Market •Aromatics & Base Oil •Conclusion 20

  21. Slide 21: Q1-2011 Market Highlights

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion  Ave Q1-11 LPG prices  Political unrests spreading @$755/ton compared to throughout ME and NA (Tunisia, previous $333/ton Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Iran,  LPG sales increase from Bahrain, Libya) cause investors’ 1

  22. Slide 22: Q1-2011 Market Highlights: Prices and Margins

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 Q3 Q4 Q1 Crude surged on supply disruption and Dubai 73.9 84.4 100.9 fund flows into oil market MO-DB 8.6 10.6 12.6 Gasoline rose on supply tightness from plant JET-DB 12.8 14.3 20.3 turnaround and st

  23. Slide 23: Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

    Macroeconomics & Crude Prices Firm fundamentals outlook… High volatility oil prices 23

  24. Slide 24: Global Economy to Continue to Grow in 2011

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion Global Economy to Continue to Grow in 2011 GDP Growth (%YoY) 2010 2011 * 12% China 10.3% 9.6% 9% India 10.4% 8.2% 6% 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 2.9% Japan 3.9% 1.4% 3% -0.5% Thailand 7.8% 4.0% 0% US 2.8% 2.8% -3% EU 1.7% 1.6

  25. Slide 25: 2011 oil demand expected to grow by 1.5 MBD

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion YoY Growth MBBL 93 2.0 2.9 1.6 91 -0.6 0.0 -1.1 89 Demand -2.0 2011 Avg 89.4 MBD 87 -4.0 88.0 85 86.8 -6.0 86.0 85.1 83 -8.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011  2011 oil demand is expected to grow by 1.5 MBD,

  26. Slide 26: Greece budget deficit and euro zone debt

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion  Greece’s 2010 budget deficit overshot the target (-8.1% of GDP) at -10.5% of GDP  The cost of insuring Greek 5-yr government bond jump to a record high above 1,400 bps, making it more difficult to finance the

  27. Slide 27: Fund flows, MENA unrest, hurricane season, OPEC

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion Fund Flows MENA Unrest to Continue • More fund flows into • Unrests will continue in commodity market to Libya, Yemen and Syria hedge against • Saudi – Iran inflation amid strong development into fundamentals rel

  28. Slide 28: What the Others Say

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion What the Others Say Crude prices has risen too fast & too much…. “ EXPECT DOWNWARD CORRECTION” Oil Price Forecast BRENT Unit : USD/BBL Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 2011 2012 BofAML 122.0 110.0 95.0 108.0 - Barclays 120.0 11

  29. Slide 29: What We See

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion What We See We revise up average Dubai to $106, ranging $95-115/barrel on MENA unrest, pick up economic activities and more fund flows $/BBL $/BBL 120 120 $109 110 $106 $106 110 $101 100 $94 $95 $94 100 $91 $91 9

  30. Slide 30: Petroleum Market

    Petroleum Market Optimistic GRM … On stronger summer demand 30

  31. Slide 31: Petroleum product margin outlook

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-TD Q3-11 Q4-11 LPG ($/t) 613 798 860 923 MO-DB 8.6 10.6 12.6 15.7 JET-DB 12.8 14.3 20.3 21.6 GO-DB 12.4 13 18.4 20.7 FO-DB -4.8 -8.2 -8.7 -10.2 GRM 3.7 3.6 6.1  Global industrial & agricultu

  32. Slide 32: Ethanol price and US gasoline inventory

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion Anhydrous Ethanol Brazil Price (R$/cbm) US Gasoline Inventory Avg.06-09 09 10 11  High sugar prices lead to a rally in ethanol prices in Brazil  US gasoline stocks fell sharply for the 11 straight weeks  Consu

  33. Slide 33: Thai local supply and demand outlook

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion 1.) Tight local supply as many refineries T/A for Euro IV tight-in Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 A B C,D 2.) Stabilized Economy & Better Projected Demand as Govt Supports  GDP Growth Forecast of 4.0 – 5.0 % YoY Growth ( %YoY) 201

  34. Slide 34: Aromatics

    Aromatics PARAXYLENE …. Golden time comes to An End ?? 34

  35. Slide 35: Paraxylene supply disruptions

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion PTA bring forward T/A A fire @ AMSB Malaysia Kuwait declared FM Product On Spec New PTA Chinese New Year Hanbang Japan Quake Chinese credit tightening 35

  36. Slide 36: PX spread and new S-Oil PX plant

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion PX CFR – Naphtha J 20 May = 562 4-year Avg = 412 Company Profile : S-Oil Location : Industrial complex Ulsan, Korea “ YTD 2011 spread is still healthy even it has been softened Capacity Existing Additional -2011

  37. Slide 37: 2011 New Asian PTA Capacities

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion KTPA 2011 New Asian PTA Capacities 1600 Company Location PTA When 1400 1200 Yisheng (Zhejiang ) China 1,500 Jul-Aug ‘11 1000 800 Yisheng (Dahua) China 500 Oct-Nov ‘11 600 400 200 Sanfanxiang China 1,500 Nov-Dec ‘

  38. Slide 38: Aromatics margin outlook

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-TD Q3-11 Q4-11 PX-UG95 216 456 669 467 BZ-UG95 131 152 181 98 TL-UG95 56 91 39 20 …  S-Oil’s 900kta PX plant is expected to  Cut of Automotive production due start in May-Jun 2011 to Japane

  39. Slide 39: Lube Base & Bitumen

    Lube Base & Bitumen Dearth of spot base oils Force sellers to push selling prices 39

  40. Slide 40: Base oil and bitumen margin outlook

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-TD Q3-11 Q4-11 500SN-FO 607 593 630 764 Bitumen-FO 46 -25 -97 -91 …  Thailand automobile producers forecast Q2’11 sales slip  Recovery in global car sales remains on track Growing demand i

  41. Slide 41: Conclusion

    4 a On, .) 5 aivers® Posi/ive Conclusion _ 41

  42. Slide 42: Market outlook conclusion

    Q1-2011 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion 2010 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 “Higher and volatile oil prices due to higher Dubai 78.1 100.9 113.3 demand, fund flows and MENA unrests” MO-DB 10.3 12.6 15.7 “Buoyant product spreads on strong regional JET-DB 12.1 20.3 21

  43. Slide 43: TOP Way Forward

    Thadoy. XZ 508 vosths (ve TOP Way Forward 43

  44. Slide 44: Today moving toward

    Marine: Solutions: PTT Group’s shipping Take leading part in PTTES / TES needs provider and PTT Group’s Energy operator Power: Solutions roadmap Shape PTT Group’s Ethanol: VLCC 1 Power Portfolio ASEAN’s top and VLCC 2-3 most cost competitive Ethanol player moving Lube base oil: SPP 2/3 Regional prod

  45. Slide 45: Investment Roadmap

    • Optimized utilization to achieve maximum profitability and improve margin through dynamic operational excellence and synergy with PTT group • Refinery industry would be recovery gradually along with global growth, led by China & ME. • Aromatic business will improve especially in H2 when new PTA pl

  46. Slide 46: Q and As

    Tharotl co ae a (ve oP QandAs 46

  47. Slide 47: Thank You

    Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976 47

  48. Slide 48: Appendices

    Thadoy Group 5@ a posh "ve 48

  49. Slide 49: LPG Demand Highlight

    Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight ML/Mth • LPG Demand in Q1 2011 grew 13.0% YoY 1,000 932 driven mainly by industry sector: 900 904 2008  Household +8.2% YoY 800 816 2009  Transportation +22.1% YoY 700 2010  Industry +4.8% YoY 600 2011  Petrochemical +21.8% YoY 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  50. Slide 50: Gasoline Demand Highlight

    Thailand Gasoline Demand Gasoline Demand Highlight ML/Mth • Gasoline demand in Q1 2011 expanded 1.4% 700 YoY though pressured by higher retail price. 650 632 2008 • Portion of gasohol & gasoline sales is 615 relatively maintained at around 60% : 40% 600 596 2009 2010 • Average ethanol replacement is

  51. Slide 51: Jet-A1 Demand Highlight

    Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight ML/Mth • Jet consumption, which correlated with 500 472 464 number of flights, has increased 450 2008 continuously since May 2010. JET fuel in Q1 400 425 11 growth was 10.3%YoY. 2009 350 2010 300 2011 250 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JET

  52. Slide 52: Gasoil Demand Highlight

    Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight ML/Mth • Gasoil demand in Q1 2011 slightly edged up 1,800 at 0.4%YoY due to government’s policy to 1,700 1,705 limit diesel price not to exceed 30 Baht/litre. 1,600 1,624 2008 (In March, diesel consumption largely grew 1,500 1,492 2009 3.2% compared to

  53. Slide 53: Fuel Oil Demand Highlight

    Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight ML/Mth • FO demand in Q1 2011 contracted 16.3% 450 400 YoY owing to reduction in every sector 350 2008 especially electricity area as there were 300 fewer power plants’ NG disruptions. 250 2009 200 184 210 207 2010 150 2011 Outlook 2011 100 Jan Feb

Thai Oil Public Company — Q1 2011 Earnings Presentation on 6ix