Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (June 2018)
83 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, June 2018
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors
-1- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors June 2018
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil
Slide 4: Corporate Governance
-4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,
Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development
-5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development 5th Consecutive Year as the Member of DJSI Emerging Markets 5th Consecutive Year of leading positions: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX
Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview
-7- TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 19.0% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder and key 11.1% 49.1% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length and in adherence with 20.8% PTT strong corporate 49.1%
Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
-9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Slide 10: Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
-10- Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery
Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
-11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 4 Oil & Chemical Tankers 50.0% Parax
Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
-12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUEL GAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 KMT-2 JET 50,000 CDU-3 165,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 Thai Lube Base HVU-2 FCCU HDS-2 HVU-3 HVU-3
Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,235 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share Nameplate Capacity 29% 29% Fang (3 kbpd) market market shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner Q1/18 Q4/17 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (1
Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
-14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Access to Indochina markets through deep Close proximity to the key domestic markets water ports and trucks Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the VIETNAM key domestic markets Bangkok and In
Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude -15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin %
Slide 16: Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate
Refining -16- Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate KBD Q1/17 Q1/18 4.5% 114% 111% 112% 112% 113% 112% 800 110% 108% 108% 3.4% 600 98% 98% 97% 400 90% 94% 4.7% 94% 7.6% 89% 90% 91% 200 70% 0 * Q1/17 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/1
Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking
-17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon for GOC 3(1) Category 2016 : TOP 2014 : TOP Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in (2) the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross ma
Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights
-18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati
Slide 19: Key Financial Highlights
-19- KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 20: Q1/18 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -20- Q1/18 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Implication Soften refinery margins pressured by higher crude premium due to 1) supply tightness followings OPEC’s allocation cut. But negative Mkt GRM at 5.7 $/bbl impact was partially offset by robust middle distillate spread due t
Slide 21: Q1/18 Key Achievements
Key Highlights -21- Q1/18 Key Achievements Key Achievements Q1/18 TOP Group Net Profit Operational Unit : million THB (MB) Maintain high reliable production Excellence Q1/18 Q4/17 Net Operating Profit F/X gain/(loss) Reversal of NRV/(NRV) & Adjusted to cost Others i.e. Hedging gain/(loss) & Refine
Slide 22: Q1/18 Profitability Improvement (VS Corporate Plan)
Key Highlights -22- Q1/18 Profitability Improvement (VS Corporate Plan) Cost Management General & Admin , Procurement & warehouse , Operation & Maintenance , Value Enhancement Project & Manpower management Margin Improvement Unit: million THB (Hydrocarbon Management) 28% Higher Intake 52 354 Higher
Slide 23: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
Financial -23- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) 7.8 6.2 7.6 6.2 6.8 6.7 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.7 2.
Slide 24: Financial Performance
Financial -24- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 446,241 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 414,575 390,090 36,925 337,388 32,675 318,391 31,099 33,448 293,569 28,760 274,739 25,492 22,337 23,868 22,808 25,496 17,381 20,350 19
Slide 25: Q1/18 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -25- Q1/18 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 18 (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Cash 228,108 241,040 72,257 million THB 8,234 million THB 36,075 Trade Payable Cash & ST 35,461 / Othe
Slide 26: Thaioil Liability Management (LM)
-26- Thaioil Liability Management (LM) Before Thaioil Treasury Center (TTC) After Thaioil Treasury Center (TTC) Establishment Establishment USD Bond Value (Million) Portion USD Bond Value (Million) Portion TOP 2023 216 M$ 22% TOP 2023 500 M$ 50% TOP 2043 173 M$ 17% TTC 2023 284 M$ 28% TOP 2043 500 M
Slide 27: 2017 Dividend Payment
Financial -27- 2017 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.39 4.57 2.75 3.75 3
Slide 28: Strategic Investment Plans
-28- STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS
Slide 29: TOP Galaxy: Strategic Direction 2017-2022
-29- TOP Galaxy: Strategic Direction 2017-2022 Vision: A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific Vision Top quartile TOP ROIC & Measurement NP Growth Diversified business DJSI 2022 performer OpEx Competitive Long Term High Improvement Growth Performance - Clean Fu
Slide 30: Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors
Updated CAPEX plan -30- Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Project Planned capital investment 2017 2018 2019 2020 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 40 42 20 11 Infrastructure Improvement - Lorry Expansion 7 2 - Jetty 7&8 / Improve
Slide 31: Key Projects Update: Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP
Key Projects Update -31- Key Projects Update : Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP Project : LAB Project : TOP SPP TPX 75% & Mitsui 25% , CAPEX 400 M$ TOP owns 100% , CAPEX 380 M$ Feedstock : Kerosene 532 KTA, Benzene 33 KTA Power capacity : 239 MW (20% TOP Group & 80% EGAT) Product : LAB 120 KTA, By
Slide 32: Key Project Progress Update: Lorry Expansion Project
New Project -32- Key Project Progress Update : Lorry Expansion Project Project Project Detail Progress * Lorry • Expand lorry loading capacity 100% Expansion Existing Capacity Lorry Expansion Project Project Designed Capacity : 10 mml/day Planned Additional Capacity : +5 mml/day (10 gantries) (+ 5 g
Slide 33: Study Project: Clean Fuel Project (CFP)
Project Update -33- Study Project : Clean Fuel Project (CFP) Main objectives of CFP Enhance competitive advantage of the refinery and maintain 1st quartile performer Enhance capability to upgrade lower value product into higher value product and ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil CFP
Slide 34: 2H-18 Market Outlook
-34- 2H-18 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 35: Crude Oil
CRUDE OIL -35- Sanaon
Slide 36: Firm Economic Outlook
Economy -36- Global Economic Outlook Firm Economic Outlook with GDP to grow by 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019 Growth China India Thailand (%YoY) US EU World 2018 2019 2020-23 ASEAN-5 Column1 Apr-18(1) Apr-18(1) Apr-18(1) 12% US 2.9% 2.7% 1.% 8% EU 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 4% China 6.6% 6.4% 5.9% India 7.4% 7.8%
Slide 37: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection
Crude Oil -37- Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.5 MBD in 2018 North America Europe FSU 360 Unit: KBD 260 230 100 190 90 70 2016 140 40 2017 2018 Middle East 150 Asia Latin America 1090 10 20 -10 840 830 -100 Africa -150 60 30 30 Demand Growth IEA (MBD)
Slide 38: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection
Crude Oil -38- Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated Non-OPEC supply growth to grow by 1.8 MBD in 2018 North America Europe FSU 40 20 1610 Unit: KBD 240 2016 780 120 2017 -50 70 2018 Middle East -450 Latin America -10 Asia -20 500 -30 60 100 Africa 50 60 -110 -280 -160 Non OPEC Growth Rema
Slide 39: Soaring Oil Prices, Driven by Strong Fundamentals and Geopolitical Risks
Crude Oil -39- Soaring Oil Prices, Driven by Strong Fundamentals and Concerns over Geopolitical Risks Dubai Price Movement $/BBL U.S. re-imposed U.S. oil production 1st OPEC-led OPEC-led cut deal Keystone & Forties to reach 11 MBD 80 OPEC-led Cut supply cut deal extended until the Pipeline leakage s
Slide 40: Tighter Oil Market on Strong Fundamentals and Escalating Geopolitical Risks
Crude Oil -40- 1 Tighter Oil Market on Strong Fundamentals and Escalating Geopolitical Risks A U.S. Sanctions to Hit Iranian Oil Exports C Solid Oil Demand on Strong Global Economic Recovery Iran’s Crude Oil Export AVG. 300 KBD World Oil Demand Growth (YoY) By end-2018 If U.S. decides to MBD MBD res
Slide 41: Surging U.S. Crude Output to Cap the Upward Momentum
Crude Oil -41- 2 Surging U.S. Crude Output to Cap the Upward Momentum A Surging Non-OPEC Supply Led by U.S. Output B Rising U.S. Output to over 11 MBD, An All-Time High Non-OPEC Supply Growth (YoY) U.S. Crude Oil Production MBD MBD 12.0 4.0 MBD + 1.4 MBD (2018) 3.0 10.0 2.0 + 1.8 MBD (2018) 8.0 0.0
Slide 42: Petroleum Products
-42- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Sanaon
Slide 43: Moderate Refining Margins Supported by Solid Demand and Limited Capacity Addition
Refinery -43- Moderate Refining Margins Supported by Solid Demand and Limited Capacity Addition Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 8.0 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.7 6.7 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.0 5.2 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Y2015 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Y2017 Q1TD- Q2TD- 18
Slide 44: Better Gasoline Margin from Firm Demand and Stable Chinese Exports
Refinery -44- Better Gasoline Margin from Firm Demand and Stable 1 Chinese Exports A Stock Draw to 5-yr Avg. from Strong Demand B Higher Demand Growth Led by China & India U.S. Gasoline Demand Asia Pacific Gasoline Demand MBD MBD 2H’18 : 9.41 MBD (+0.02 MBD YoY) 2H’18 : 7.17 MBD (+0.26 MBD YoY) 10.0
Slide 45: Stable Middle Distillate Cracks from Strong Demand and Low Inventories
Refinery -45- Stable Middle Distillate Cracks from Strong Demand and 2 Low Inventories A Strong Demand Growth Drives Market Deficit B Tight Supply amid Inventories below 5-Year Avg. Asia Pacific Middle Distillate Demand U.S/ARA/SING Middle Distillate Inventories MBD MBBL 2H’18 : 12.0 MBD (+0.23 MBD
Slide 46: Lower-than-expected Supply Addition from Start-up Delay and Refinery Closure
Refinery -46- Lower-than-expected Supply Addition from the Start-up 3 Delay and Refinery Closure Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Japan India Vietnam Teapot Net Addition Operating Rate [RHS] KBD Demand growth >
Slide 47: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic -47- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth (B) 3M/18(B) Year on Year Y2016 (B) Y2017 VS 3M/17 Y2018F(C) Mogas (A) +9.8% +3.7% +4.7% +3.8% Jet/Kero +6.8% +4.4% +7.6% +3.8% Diesel (A) +3.1% +2.9% +3.4% +3.1% Total +5.4% +3.4% +4.5% +3.4% GDP +3.2% +3.9%(D) N.A. +4.1%(E) Thaila
Slide 48: Aromatics
AROMATICS -48- Sanaon
Slide 49: PX and BZ Market still under Pressure on High Supply Addition
Aromatics -49- PX and BZ Market still under Pressure on High Supply Addition Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 332315341 317 343 313 304 288 280 273258260276 255246 256 266 245 233 225 212 231 185 195 156138174 163 127 98 115 101 97 74 Y2015 Y2016 Y2017 Q2-18* Q
Slide 50: Weaker PX Market due to Higher Capacity Addition and Asian Lower Maintenance
Aromatics -50- Weaker PX Market due to Higher Capacity Addition and Asian 1 Lower Maintenance A High Capacity Addition to Pressure Market C High PTA Plants Addition to Support PX Demand AP/ME Effective PX Capacity Addition AP/ME Effective PTA Capacity Addition Mil TON Mil TON Dragon Tongkun 2 JBF 3.
Slide 51: AP/ME PX Balance
Aromatics -51- AP/ME PX Balance AP/ME PX Supply Demand Balance 2010-2017 (CAGR) 2018 (CAGR) 2019-2022 (CAGR) Mil TON Cap: 5.9% Cap: 4.7% Cap: 7.7% Operating Rate Dem: 6.1% Dem: 8.1% Dem: 4.5% 70 90% 60 50 55.6 57.8 80% 40 49.5 47.2 45.0 46.3 44.6 40.6 41.2 43.0 41.3 43.1 70% 37.8 39.8 30 33.3 33.2 3
Slide 52: Weaker BZ Market due to Slightly Higher Capacity Addition and High BZ stock
Aromatics -52- Weaker BZ Market due to Slightly Higher Capacity Addition 2 and High BZ stock A Slightly Higher BZ Plant Addition to Cap Upside C C Higher Expect SM Capacity Rising Addition SM Operating Rate Limits Downside after Seasonal M/T AP/ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition AP/ME Effective SM Ca
Slide 53: AP/ME BZ Balance
Aromatics -53- AP/ME BZ Balance AP/ME BZ Supply Demand Balance 2010-2017 (CAGR) 2018 2019-2022 (CAGR) Cap: 3.2% Cap: 2.8% Cap: 4.7% Mil TON Dem: 3.6% Dem: 3.9% Dem: 3.3% Operating Rate 50 90% 40 45.2 46.4 40.0 40.5 42.0 80% 37.2 37.7 39.0 36.8 30 32.9 32.8 34.5 32.6 33.6 31.2 30.4 31.5 27.0 28.1 29.
Slide 54: Base Oil & Bitumen
BASE OIL & BITUMEN -54- Sanaon
Slide 55: Softer Base Oil Market due to New Additional Supply
Base Oil & Bitumen -55- Softer Base Oil Market due to New Additional Supply 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 AP Base Oil Nameplate Capacity Addition Mil TON 556528 512479 506 450431 427409443 412 451 458498 3.0 2.0 369399 367 2.0 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 -1.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Net Capacit
Slide 56: Soft Bitumen Market on Slow Regional Demand
Base Oil & Bitumen -56- Soft Bitumen Market on Slow Regional Demand Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Slow Import Demand from Major Importers KTON/MONTH Indonesia KTON/MONTH Vietnam 82 98 150 60 56 23 20 100 40 50 20 -7 -13 -38 -29 0 0 -48 -61 -49 -45 -31 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 -56 -69 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17
Slide 57: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
-57- Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 58: Steady LAB Market On Higher Plant Maintenance
LAB -58- Steady LAB Market On Higher Plant Maintenance LAB Market LAB Spread** ($/TON) AP/ME Effective Maintenance/Closure* KTA 120 654666675627656 635627619 606 603 543 539 534522550 529564 100 80 60 40 20 0 Y2015 Y2016 Y2017 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q
Slide 59: Conclusion
CONCLUSION -59- Sanaon
Slide 60: 2H-18 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -60- 2H-18 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H-18) Crude Oil Soaring Oil Prices, Driven by Tightening Fundamentals and Concerns over Geopolitical Risks Moderate Refining Margins Supported by Solid Demand and Refinery Limited Capacity Addition Weaker Aromatics Market due to Higher Capacity A
Slide 61: Thank You
-61- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Slide 62: Appendix
-62- APPENDIX • Q1/18 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 63: Q1/18: Softer Market GRM Pressured by Higher Crude Premium
Refining -63- Q1/18: Soften Mkt GRM pressured by Higher Crude Premium But partially offset by Robust Middle Distillate Cracks Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2017 2018 2017 Q1/18 Q4/17 Q1/17 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY17 113% 112% 111% DUBAI (DB) 53.1 49.8 50
Slide 64: Q1/18: Improved Aromatics Contribution supported by Strong Demand
Aromatics/LAB -64- Q1/18: Improved Aromatics Contribution supported by Strong Demand Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2017 2018 2017 Q1/18 Q4/17 Q1/17 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY17 90% 82% 90% PX**-ULG95 312 273 258 260 304 266 276 Q1/18 Market BZ**-ULG95 346 226 195 213 231 127
Slide 65: Q1/18: Stable Contribution supported by Strong Base Oil Spread
Lube Base Oil -65- Q1/18: Stable Contribution supported by Strong Base Oil Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2017 2018 2017 Q1/18 Q4/17 Q1/17 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY17 89% 88% 88% 500SN-HSFO 451 556 528 458 512 479 528 % Base Oil & Specialty Sales Volume BITUMEN-H
Slide 66: Q1/18 Power Sector Performance
Power -66- Q1/18 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP GPSC **** [74%] [100%] Power & Steam Sales ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP) GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Electricity(1) 2,504 Equity method is a
Slide 67: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM
Performance Breakdown -67- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 12.8 13.0 14.3 12.4 16.4 11.9 12.2 14.5 11.0 Product to Feed Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/18 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.1 8.1 5.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/18 1
Slide 68: Q1/18: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit
Performance Breakdown -68- Q1/18: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: higher utilization to capture decent margin and strong demand (local + Indochina) • Aromatic/LAB: higher contribution from higher production and impro
Slide 69: Q1/18 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -69- Q1/18 TOP Group Consolidated P&L QoQ analysis A A Mainly from overall sale B volume and product price increased C B Mainly from gain in dated time spread hedge D C Mainly from huge stock gain in Q4/17 D Mainly from lower E operating cost E Realized gain on AP/AR & unrealized gain on U
Slide 70: Q1/18 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -70- Q1/18 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Investments Operating Cash Flow Q1/18 Q1/17 Q1/18 Q1/17 Investments 2,896 (2,891) Operating Cash Flow 7,636 10,089 ST investments 4,352 244 Net income & non-cash adj. 7,157 10,047 + Available for sale (680)
Slide 71: Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition
Refinery -71- Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Start-up Nameplate Japan India Country Company period) (KBD) Vietnam Teapot Net Addition Q3-17 India 42 HPCL Bhatinda KBD China (Oct’16 > Jul’17) 260 CNPC/SA Anning 2000 China (Feb’17 > Sep’
Slide 72: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -72- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin U.S. Crude Refinery Input EU 16 Crude Refinery Input Japan Crude Refinery Input MBD MBD MBD Source : EIA Source : EurOil Source : METI 19 12 3.9 Total Capacity: 18.1 MBD 91.08% Total Capacity: 15.8 MBD 64.64% Total Capacity: 3.5 MBD 86.86% 18 3.7 17 11 3.
Slide 73: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -73- Global Crude Oil Inventories U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : EIA 600 80 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-16
Slide 74: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -74- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 280 20 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 12-16
Slide 75: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -75- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 180 20 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-17 5yr-range 2018
Slide 76: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -76- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-17 5yr-range 2018 20
Slide 77: China's Refined Product Exports
China Export -77- China’s Refined Product Exports KBD China’s Gasoline Exports KBD China’s Gasoil Exports Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 500 600 400 500 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2
Slide 78: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -78- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • In Q1/2018, LPG demand jumped by 7.9%YoY on account of 29.9%YoY higher demand from petrochemical sector, as a result of higher substitute feedstock price. Moreover, LPG demand was also supported
Slide 79: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -79- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight • In Q1/2018, Mogas demand rose moderately by 4.7%YoY to an average 30.8 ML/day. Although, the retail price of Mogas is higher, Mogas demand was still suppor
Slide 80: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -80- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight • In Q1/2018, Jet consumption increased significantly by 7.6% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to booming tourism industry, leading to 5.4%YoY higher aircraft movement. The 15
Slide 81: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -81- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight • In Q1/2018, Diesel demand rose moderately by 3.4% YoY as a result of higher growth of Thai economic recovery, according to higher Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) by 3.7%YoY
Slide 82: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -82- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight • In Q1/2018, Fuel Oil consumption rose slightly by 0.3%YoY, as a result of 12.0%YoY higher demand from transportation sector which takes approximately 61.1% of total Fuel Oil deman
Slide 83: Thank You
-83- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (June 2018) on 6ix