65 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s technical presentation, May 22, 2025
Slide 1: Carolinas Resource Plan Draft Meeting 3
Carolinas Resource Plan Draft Meeting 3 May 22, 2025 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 1
Slide 2: Meeting recording notice
Please note, this meeting is being recorded. Presentations will be posted on the IRP website and discussion portions will be temporarily stored for internal purposes only to ensure accuracy of meeting notes. 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 2
Slide 3: Safety
Safety May is National Electrical Safety Month Taking simple steps can help prevent electrical accidents or fires. Here are some tips to help you stay safe around electricity: Indoor Safety Tips ▪ Reduce your electrical load by using energy-efficient appliances and lighting. ▪ Unplug small appliance
Slide 4: Facilitator of 2025 Engagement: Great Plains Institute (GPI)
Facilitator of 2025 Engagement: Great Plains Institute (GPI) Benjamin Stafford Alissa Bemis Trevor Drake Senior Policy Draft Meeting & Vice President, Manager Administrative Manager Energy Systems Aileen Cole Audrey Negro Hallie Turner Senior Policy Meeting & Policy Associate Research Specialist Adm
Slide 5: Agenda – Public Meeting 3
Agenda – Public Meeting 3 9:00 – 9:10 a.m. Open, Safety, Agenda, Meeting Structure Benjamin Stafford, GPI 9:10 – 9:25 a.m. Feedback from Engagement Meeting 2 Benjamin Stafford, GPI 9:25 – 9:45 a.m. Supply-Side Resources Mike Quinto 9:45 – 10:05 a.m. Solar and Wind Resources Justin LaRoche 10:05 – 10
Slide 6: Meeting Structure
Meeting Structure 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 6
Slide 7: Meeting Ground Rules
Meeting Ground Rules Respect each other: Chatham House Rule: Focus on today’s topics: Help us to collectively uphold Empower others to voice their Please respect the scope of respect for each other's Draftperspective by respecting the today’s meeting to make the most experiences and opinions, even i
Slide 8: Attendee Roles: Observers
Attendee Roles: Observers ▪ Please use the "Q&A" feature on the menu at the bottom of your screen to submit questions to presenters and technical representatives. ▪ We will address questions as time permits. ▪ Questions submitted through the Q&A feature will be displayed as they are answered. This a
Slide 9: Attendee Roles: Technical Representative
Attendee Roles: Technical Representative ▪ Technical representatives ▪ To manage participation, please use the “Raise hand” feature have registered in to indicate you would like to join the conversations (observers advance. do not use the “Raise hand" feature). ▪ Technical representatives Click on “
Slide 10: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials and presentation recordings* will be uploaded to the website: duke-energy.com/CarolinasResourcePlan Questions/comments can be submitted through the "Contact Us" form on the website or send an email to DukeCarolinas@gpisd.net ▪ *Q&A portions of meetings will
Slide 11: Proposed Engagement Timeline
Proposed Engagement Timeline March April May June MEETING 1 MEETING 2 MEETING 3 MEETING 4 March 13 April 28 May 22 June 26 Resource Planning & the Load Forecasting & Demand-Side Supply-Side Modeling Analytical Framework & Changing Energy Landscape Modeling Assumptions Assumptions & Tech Updates Foll
Slide 12: Duke Energy IRP Teammates
Duke Energy IRP Teammates Matt Kalemba BJ Byers Karen Hall Emma Goodnow Lee Grzeck VP Integrated Resource Planning Manager Resource Planning Regulatory Director Nuclear Licensing IRP Modeling & Analytics & Strategy Director IRP Strategic Integration Consultant Draft Glen Snider Jennifer Poppler Mike
Slide 13: Meeting 3 Technical Representatives
Meeting 3 Technical Representatives Technical Representatives: ▪ Taylor Allred, Coastal Conservation League ▪ Forest Bradley Wright, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) ▪ Daniel Brookshire, Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) ▪ Hamilton Davis, Carolinas Clean Energy Busines
Slide 14: Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation
Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 14
Slide 15: Stakeholder Meeting 2 | Feedback Themes
Stakeholder Meeting 2 | Feedback Themes Modeling Methodologies Large Customers Participants expressed interest in Participants discussed risks associated assumptions and methodologies used to with forecasting large loads and assessing create forecasts and a desire to the unique energy needs of curre
Slide 16: Supply-Side Resources in 2025 Evaluation
Supply-Side Resources in 2025 Evaluation 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 16
Slide 17: Generic Supply-Side Resources Available for Selection in Modeling
Generic Supply-Side Resources Available for Selection in Modeling Draft 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 17
Slide 18: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 18
Slide 19: Renewables & Storage
Renewables & Storage 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 19
Slide 20: Solar and Wind Configurations
Solar and Wind Configurations Specifications Operational Considerations Other Considerations • DC/AC Ratio at 1.3 Bifacial Single-Axis Tracking (SAT) Solar • 0.5% Annual degradation at 75 MW • Capacity factor: 24% • IRA and tariff uncertainty Draft • Land and permitting • 113m Hub height Onshore 150
Slide 21: Storage Configurations
Storage Configurations Specifications Operational Considerations Other Considerations • Augmentation strategy • Generator Replacement Request • 30-year life with assumed midlife (GRR) opportunities to reduce cost 4-hour lithium ion & replacement/rebuild through avoiding upgrades and Battery 8-hour l
Slide 22: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 22
Slide 23: BREAK
BREAK 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 23
Slide 24: New Nuclear Development
New Nuclear Development 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 24
Slide 25: 11 Reactors at Six Sites in the Carolinas
11 Reactors at Six Sites in the Carolinas ▪ 10,773 megawatts of clean energy ▪ Safe, reliable ▪ 50+ years of operation Draft ▪ 8 million homes ▪ 95% capacity factor; 26th consecutive year greater than 90% ▪ More than 50% of the total energy and more than 96% of the clean energy for Carolinas’ custom
Slide 26: Subsequent License Renewal and Power Uprates
Subsequent License Renewal and Power Uprates Subsequent License Renewals ▪ Extending the operational life of all 11 units from 60 to 80 years ▪ March 2025: Received renewed licenses for all three units at Oconee Nuclear Station ▪ April 2025: Submitted Robinson Nuclear Plant’s Draft application ▪ 202
Slide 27: Advanced Reactors
Advanced Reactors Technologies Overview Leading U.S. Reactor Designs ▪ Generation III+ reactors ▪ Light-water-cooled; uses ordinary water (H2O) Small Modular ▪ Like nuclear reactors in operation today Reactors ▪ 75-350 megawatts per unit with one design GEH BWRX-300 Holtec SMR-300 NuScale VOYGR West
Slide 28: New Nuclear Development at the Belews Creek, N.C., Site
New Nuclear Development at the Belews Creek, N.C., Site Draft 1) The 1,000-acre site on Belews Lake. 2) An on-site meteorological tower. 3) Groundwater monitoring wells and rock core drilling. 4) Survey of freshwater mussels in Dan River. 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 28
Slide 29: Second Mover Strategy
Second Mover Strategy U.S. Department of Energy Generation III + TerraPower Natrium Project SMR Technology Grant ▪ Kemmerer, Wyo. ▪ Up to $800 million ▪ Embedded three-person operations team ▪ Accelerate development, reduce risks and as part of U.S. Department of Energy’s lower costs Advanced Reacto
Slide 30: March 31 Report on Large Light-Water Reactors
March 31 Report on Large Light-Water Reactors ▪ W.S. Lee nuclear site in Cherokee County, S.C., offers the best opportunity for AP1000 units Draft ▪ Additional analysis is needed for Harris Nuclear Plant site in North Carolina ▪ A site near Belews Creek, N.C., slated for small modular reactors ▪ Add
Slide 31: Conceptual New Nuclear Deployment Timeline
Conceptual New Nuclear Deployment Timeline ▪ Develop licensing ▪ Submit licensing documents ▪ Start safety-related documents construction (once license ▪ Receive approval of is approved and delivery of ▪ Secure contracts and order Draftlicensing documents from long-lead equipment is long-lead equipm
Slide 32: Near-Term Activities
Near-Term Activities ▪ Submit early site permit application later this year ▪ Continue evaluating reactor Draft technologies and provide a recommendation for the initial site ▪ Develop a construction and operating license application for the initial site ▪ Identify additional sites for future new nu
Slide 33: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 33
Slide 34: Transmission Planning
Transmission Planning 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 34
Slide 35: Red Zone Expansion Plan (RZEP)
Red Zone Expansion Plan (RZEP) Draft 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 35
Slide 36: Multi-Value Strategic Transmission (MVST)
Multi-Value Strategic Transmission (MVST) Carolinas Transmission Planning Collaborative Multi-Value Strategic Transmission Needs March 20, 2025 (DEP) Draft 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 36
Slide 37: MVST Scenarios
MVST Scenarios Scenario 1: Resources added by January 1, 2034 -> 2034 Summer Cases Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: Portfolio Solar Battery CC CT Onshore PSH SMR Offshore P1 19,800 9,540 4,077 2,124 2,250 1,834 - 2,400 P1 Fall Supplemental P3 Fall Supplemental P3 Fall Supplemental Portfolio. The
Slide 38: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 38
Slide 39: Annual Resource Availability
Annual Resource Availability 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 39
Slide 40: Supply-Side Resources | Annual Availability through 2040 (MW)
Supply-Side Resources | Annual Availability through 2040 (MW) Annual availability reflects max selection of a resource in a given year, and may be subject to cumulative limits RESOURCE 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cumulative Limit • No cumulative limit Solar ● ● 1
Slide 41: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 41
Slide 42: BREAK
BREAK 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 42
Slide 43: Fuel Price Forecasting Methodology
Fuel Price Forecasting Methodology 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 43
Slide 44: Fuel Price Forecast Methodology – Overview
Fuel Price Forecast Methodology – Overview The fuel price curves are constructed from three components: Years 1-5 Years 6-8 Years 9 and beyond (2026-2030) (2031-2033) (2034 and beyond) Draft Forward Long-term Transition Market Fundamentals Gas – Interpolate between Composite of outlook NYMEX Henry H
Slide 45: Fuel Prices – Natural Gas
Fuel Prices – Natural GasFuel Prices – Natural Gas Gas Price Trends Draft ▪ Robust production combined with domestic and export demand is expected to bring markets into greater equilibrium over the near term. ▪ After the market curve period, price blends back to the long- term fundamental trend. 202
Slide 46: Fuel Prices – Coal
Fuel Prices – Natural Gas Fuel Prices – Coal Coal Price Trends ▪ Short-term pricing for Central Draft Appalachian (CAPP) is back near pre-pandemic levels. ▪ After the market curve period, price blends to the long-term fundamental trend. 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 46
Slide 47: High & Low Sensitivities Methodology – Overview
High & Low Sensitivities Methodology – Overview Forward market and long-term fundamental price curves are updated using the fuel price high & low sensitivities employing the same transition methodology Forward Long-term MarketDraft Fundamentals Implied Market 2025 EIA Annual Volatilities Energy Outl
Slide 48: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 48
Slide 49: CC 4+ Fuel Security Modeling Assumptions (Interstate FT & LNG)
CC 4+ Fuel Security Modeling Assumptions (Interstate FT & LNG) 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 49
Slide 50: Fuel Security Model Assumptions
Fuel Security Model Assumptions As with prior IRPs, due to As an update for the 2025 Interstate FT: Consistent with the limitations in the Transco Zone 5, CPRIP, there will be two 2023 CPIRP, the modeled CC 4-6 will any new CC resource will be incremental fuel security be burdened with the generic c
Slide 51: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Storage
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Storage While LNG was not in the Currently refining how If LNG is preferred, 2023 CPIRP, the companies LNG will be modeled in the companies could move forward with stated they may move EnCompass LNG solution for fuel forward in validating LNG ▪ The fuel security costs of
Slide 52: LNG Strategy
LNG Strategy Intrastate LNG storage could meet future fuel security needs for new gas generation beyond CC3 in place of incremental Interstate FT Hourly Management (0-25%) Liquify when excess LNG would be dual-purpose, but of daily gas IRP modeling would focus on Draft the Fuel Security portion Seas
Slide 53: LNG Modeling
LNG Modeling The 2025 CPIRP is planning to model LNG in Encompass and optimize hourly1 ▪ The costs of LNG will be compared to additional FT ▪ Generic cost assumptions for FT and LNG will be based on estimates from third parties Draft Generic LNG assumptions per new CC provide fuel security while not
Slide 54: Hydrogen
Hydrogen 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 54
Slide 55: Hydrogen Industry Update
Hydrogen Industry Update Evolving Landscape ▪ Hydrogen hubs awarded but funding under review ▪ Southeast Hydrogen Hub application not selected Draft ▪ IRA tax credits uncertainty ▪ Advanced Class CT manufacturers continue journey from current 30%-50% hydrogen capability to 100% by 2030 ▪ 2025 CPIRP
Slide 56: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 56
Slide 57: Coal Retirement Modeling Methodology
Coal Retirement Modeling Methodology 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 57
Slide 58: Orderly Transition as Coal-Fired Generation Plants Retire
Orderly Transition as Coal-Fired Generation Plants Retire Draft Illustrative 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 58
Slide 59: Coal Retirement Analysis Methodology
Coal Retirement Analysis Methodology Initial Coal Unit Development of Coal Unit Determination of Operations Run Coal Unit Cost Retirement Runs Optimal Coal Retirement Dates ▪ Initial system simulation ▪ Based on anticipated ▪ Costs input into capacity to determine coal unit Draft operations, cost to
Slide 60: Coal Unit Details
Coal Unit Details Fuel Maximum NG Capacity In-Service Unit Utility Capabilities Co-firing Capability (Winter MW) Date Belews Creek 1 Coal/Gas DEC 50% 1,110 1975 Belews Creek 2 Coal/Gas DEC 50% 1,110 1975 Cliffside 5 Coal/Gas DEC 40% 546 1972 Cliffside 6 Coal/Gas DEC 100% 849 2012 Marshall 1 Coal/Gas
Slide 61: Questions
Questions 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 61
Slide 62: Recap | Proposed Engagement Timeline
Recap | Proposed Engagement Timeline March April May June MEETING 1 DraftMEETING 2 MEETING 3 MEETING 4 March 13 April 28 May 22 June 26 Resource Load Forecasting & Supply-Side Analytical Planning & the Demand-Side Modeling Framework & Changing Energy Modeling Assumptions & Follow-up Items Landscape
Slide 63: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials and presentation recordings* will be uploaded to the website: duke-energy.com/CarolinasResourcePlan Questions/comments can be submitted through the "Contact Us" form on the website or send an email to DukeCarolinas@gpisd.net ▪ *Q&A portions of meetings will
Slide 64: Next Engagement Meeting
Next Engagement Meeting Engagement Meeting #4 will take place on June 26, 2025 Invitations to register for Meeting 4 will be sent in the coming weeks to all stakeholders. Registration will also be available on the website: duke-energy.com/CarolinasResourcePlan 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 64
Slide 65: Thank you!
Thank you! 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan | 65