Akenerji Elektrik Uretim A.S. · BIST:AKENR
Akenerji Elektrik Uretim A.S — Investor Presentation (May 2012)
31 slides from Akenerji Elektrik Uretim A.S's investor presentation, May 24, 2012
Slide 1: Akenerji Elektrik Üretim A.Ş.
AKENERJİ ELEKTRİK ÜRETİM A.Ş. 2012 www.akenerji.com.tr
Slide 2: Company Overview
COMPANY OVERVIEW ¾ Private Energy Company 659 MW active power capacity (Natural gas, Hydro and wind) 87 MW hydro to be operational 2H2012 900 MW natural gas to be operational 2H2014 160 MW hydro at development stage ¾ Role in Market • Established in 1989, one of the largest and most experienced play
Slide 3: Strong Shareholder Synergy
STRONG SHAREHOLDER SYNERGY AKKÖK GROUP CEZ GROUP ¾One of the biggest industrial groups in Turkey ¾CEZ is the largest Czech corporation, and the largest corporation among 10 new EU member states ¾Active in several sectors with main focus on Chemicals,Energy,Real Estate,Port Operations,IT and Insuranc
Slide 4: Global Trends & Expectations in Energy
GLOBAL TRENDS & EXPECTATIONS IN ENERGY 4
Slide 5: How to Meet the Growing Demand
HOW TO MEET THE GROWING DEMAND ¾Today, with the growth of the economies, demand for energy is increasing. As a result, further investments and diversification of the energy sources seems immanent. With the developed energy markets, unefficient/expensive power plants will be eliminated and efficient/
Slide 6: Demand for Energy Is Driven by Emerging Markets
DEMAND FOR ENERGY IS DRIVEN BY EMERGING MARKETS ¾ According to IEA World energy Outlook Report,2011, world primary energy demand will increase by one‐third b/w 2010 and 2035. ¾ 90% of the projected growth comes from non‐OECD ¾ It is forecasted that the increased need in baseload economies; capacity
Slide 7: Natural Gas Consumption Expected to Catch Up Coal by 2035
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION EXPECTED TO CATCH UP COAL BY 2035 ¾ Natural gas is the only fuel to increase its share in the global mix ¾ Gas demand increases at an average rate of 1.7% p.a. globally ¾ 81% of global gas demand and 70% of global gas production is driven by non‐OECD countries ¾ Unconventiona
Slide 8: Trends & Expectations in Turkish Energy Market
TRENDS & EXPECTATIONS IN TURKISH ENERGY MARKET 8
Slide 9: Demand Growth & Potential
DEMAND GROWTH & POTENTIAL ¾Electricity consumption is mainly effected by GDP, population growth, urbanization, climate change and efficiency applications. GDP 2011 2012 Turkey 8.5% 2% ; 4% EU 1.4% ; 1.6% ‐1.2 %;‐0.5% Source: IMF, OECD, WB, UN, Govt, ¾It has been historically observed globally that t
Slide 10: Consumption Dynamics
CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS Electricity Consumption Trend ¾In the last 20 years, net electricity consumption increased remarkably with 7 % CAGR. ¾TEIAS forecasts average annual consumption growth of 7 % per year for 2010 to 2019. The consumption growth may be shifted due to the global crises but the imbala
Slide 11: Generation Characteristics
GENERATION CHARACTERISTICS Turkey's Installed Capacity by Generation Companies (MW) %17 Fuel Sources 2011 %37 %45 ¾Today, majority of the electricity produced in Turkey is ¾Currently the majority (90%) of natural gas is being imported by generated through state‐owned/operated power plants. the gover
Slide 12: Yearly & Monthly Growth Trends
YEARLY & MONTHLY GROWTH TRENDS ¾In 2011, consumption increased yoy by 9% and has been 229 ¾MoM increase in 2012 for the four months is 7,6% in Turkey. TWh in Turkey. ¾We expect Turkey to growth 3‐4% in 2012 and forecast electricity demand growth to be higher than the country growth. 12 Source: TEİAŞ
Slide 13: Market Mechanism
MARKET MECHANISM TRY/MWh ¾ The official electricity tariff (for residential /commercial/industrial use) is set by the government every 3 months as per APM*. ¾ NG tariffs are determined by the government, and adjusted quarterly by APM (the private gas suppliers operate by providing a discount rate of
Slide 14: Market Liberalization Schedule
MARKET LIBERALIZATION SCHEDULE Turkish Energy Market deregulation is developed after the UK Model and has been proceeding as per below schedule. Privatization & Liberalization should be expected to start to help create a transparent & competitive market environment. Liberalization NG Market The priv
Slide 15: Privatization Overview
PRIVATIZATION OVERVIEW The aim of the GenCo privatizations is to increase the efficiency in the market and provide cheap electricity to the end‐user. GenCO DisCO ¾ %37 of Turkey’s capacity will be offered to the private sector. ¾ Among 21 DisCOs, 3 tenders were cancelled and 4 tenders are ¾ The Gove
Slide 16: Akenerji
AKENERJİ 16
Slide 17: Akenerji Highlights
AKENERJİ HIGHLIGHTS ¾ Diversified portfolio mix ¾ Vertical integration ¾ Ability to monitor customer trends, dynamics and needs first hand through Disco ¾ Tripling base load capacity through Egemer by 2014 ¾ Experienced trading staff ¾ Profitability Margins are effected positively because of renewab
Slide 18: Operations and Investments
OPERATIONS and INVESTMENTS Capacity Diversification by 2012 Capacity Diversification by 2014* 18 * Capacity breakdown is based on the licensed investment assumptions given in the previous slides .
Slide 19: Vertical Integration: SEDAS
VERTICAL INTEGRATION : SEDAS ¾ In July 2008; Akkök ‐ Akenerji ‐ CEZ, “AkCEZ” won SEDAS tender by submitting the highest bid of USD 600 mio. Akenerji has taken over SEDAS in Feb.2009 through AkCEZ. 106 * : Based on 2008 consumptions ¾ App. 1,5 million customers. ¾ More than 50% of the consumption is
Slide 20: Sales & Pricing Assumptions
SALES & PRICING ASSUMPTIONS Akenerji has 3 main types of customers: direct, and indirect customers, and DUY system. DIRECT‐INDIRECT SALES * DUY SALES ¾Tariff for sales to direct and indirect customers are set as a ¾In the DUY Market, since the price is set by the generation company function of the g
Slide 21: Capacity & Sales Forecast
CAPACITY & SALES FORECAST* * These forecasts are based on the licensed investment assumptions given in the previous slides . ¾ With the completion of Egemer project, Akenerji’s power generation capacity will increase with a CAGR of 28% by 2014. ¾Average capacity utilisation rate can be considered as
Slide 22: Egemer Highlights
EGEMER HIGHLIGHTS ¾Egemer is a 900 MW, natural gas Combined Cycle Power Plant ¾The projects is the largest investment of Akenerji and tripling the base load capacity ¾One of the most efficient projects in Turkey with a desirable coastal location, located in Erzin/Hatay, in the south of the country ¾
Slide 23: Financing Strategy
FINANCING STRATEGY ¾ Akenerji’s Projects are in compliance with international environmental standards which enables access to international financing ¾ Akenerji prefers project financing for each SPV • Projects are financed with grace period + minimum 5+ year terms • Competitive pricing • Target Deb
Slide 24: Main Capex Assumptions
MAIN CAPEX ASSUMPTIONS ¾For CAPEX estimations, the following data can be used: 1,2‐1,5 mio $/MW for HPPs, 0,75‐1 mio $/MW for NG PPs, and 1,5‐2 mio $/MW for wind projects. ¾For investment period estimations , the following data can be used: 2 years for WPPs, 2‐3 years for NG PPs , and 3 years for HP
Slide 25: Financial Information
FINANCIAL INFORMATION 25
Slide 26: Financial Performance
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE * * 26 (*) : Excluding SEDAŞ.
Slide 27: Profitability Performance
PROFITABILITY PERFORMANCE ¾ In the last three years, Akenerji incurred min 9% and max 19% Ebitda Margin with its diversified portfolio. Although we’ll have three new hydro projects with a total capacity of 87 MW, uncertain conditions in the market led us to think conservatively. Accordingly, we expe
Slide 28: Consolidated Balance Sheet
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET 28
Slide 29: Stock Performance
STOCK PERFORMANCE Market Cap ∼ mUSD 450 (last 4 months) 29
Slide 30: Abbreviations
ABBREVIATIONS MW : Megawatt GW : Gigawatt NG : Natural Gas GDP : Gross Domestic Product CAGR : Compound Annual Growth Rate DUY : Electricity Market Balancing and Settlement Regulation System DISCO : Distribution Companies GENCO : Generation Companies COD : Commercial Operation Date TWh : Terawatthou
Slide 31: Akenerji Investor Relations
AKENERJI INVESTOR RELATIONS Akenerji Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. Gamze DİNÇKÖK YÜCAOĞLU +90 212 249 82 82 Miralay Şefik Bey Sok. gdinckok@akenerji.com.tr No:15 Akhan 34437 Gümüşsuyu İstanbul Nilüfer AYDOĞAN Turkey +90 212 249 82 82 (ext:21130) info@akenerji.com.tr +90 212 393 50 18 naltintasi@akenerji.com.
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