LS telcom AG · XETR:LSX
LS telcom — LS Summit 2014
7 slides from LS telcom's conference presentation, Sep 25, 2014
Slide 1: Analysis of the ITU-R Model for Forecasting IMT Spectrum Demand
ANALYSIS OF THE ITU-R MODEL FOR FORECASTING IMT SPECTRUM DEMAND 1
Slide 2: Background
Background • ITU-R Report M.2290 presents forecasts for growth in the total amount of mobile traffic in the World to 2020 & then models the spectrum demand for IMT services based on the forecast traffic • The model is relatively sophisticated & breaks down traffic into different service environments
Slide 3: Stakeholders have reviewed the ITU-R 'speculator' model
Stakeholders have reviewed the ITU-R ‘speculator’ model • Model uses a bottom-up prediction based on population density & traffic use to determine traffic densities in each of the service environments • Benchmarking the population & traffic density figures in the model against accepted forecasts of
Slide 4: Review of ITU 'speculator' model - findings
Review of ITU ‘speculator’ model - findings Monthly data traffic PetaBytes per square km; the figures from the low density settings in the ITU model compared with benchmark values for urban area traffic in five example countries Image illustrates the traffic that the model shows in each of the servi
Slide 5: Review of ITU 'speculator' model - findings
Review of ITU ‘speculator’ model - findings OTHER ISSUES WITH MODEL INPUTS • Other values are also unrealistic: e.g. spectrum efficiency • The model does not distinguish between different types of spectrum E.g. It assumes that mobile traffic is handled in the same spectrum as traffic in an office: i
Slide 6: Conclusions
Conclusions Based on the analysis before, we can conclude: • The ITU model itself is a good basis for calculating demand for IMT spectrum but requires modifications (e.g. to consider how demand is focussed in different frequency bands); • The population density & traffic usage values in the ITU mode
Slide 7: Recommendations
Recommendations Therefore, it is recommended that: • To be a sound basis for responsible, international decision- making, the inputs to the ITU model need to based on real- world values; • Regulators should not take decisions based on the existing ITU model results - as the inputs are unrealistic, s