Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Corporate Update (November 2020)
30 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s corporate update, Nov 10, 2020
Slide 1: 2021 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #1
2021 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #1 Nov 10, 2020
Slide 2: Safety Message, Technology, Opening, Introductions
SAFETY TECHNOLOGY OPENING INTRODUCTIONS MESSAGE COMMENTS Microsoft-Teams check 2
Slide 3: Meeting Protocols
Meeting Protocols The value of this process is in participation … please jump in! We set aside time at the end of each section for Questions, and if you need clarification at any time, feel free to ask! ”Raise your hand” for comments and questions, we will try to get to you ASAP - We will not active
Slide 4: Why are we here today?
Why are we here today? Kickoff 2021 IRP Process • Recap 2018 IRP • Discuss lessons learned from last cycle and improvement opportunities • Discuss high level plan for 2021 stakeholder meetings and feedback • Overview Load Forecasting • Engage with Stakeholders 4
Slide 5: What are the Goals of the IRP Process
What are the Goals of the IRP Process INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP): DEI’s plan to provide safe, reliable and sustainable energy solutions for our Customers in Indiana. • IRPs are submitted every three years • Plan is created with stakeholder input • 20-year look at how DEI can cost-effectively ser
Slide 6: Agenda
Agenda 10:00 Welcome & Introductions 10:15 Review of the 2018 DEI IRP 10:45 Stakeholder feedback 11:15 Contemplated changes for 2021 IRP 11:45 Overview of future stakeholder meetings 12:00 Lunch Break 1:00 Load forecasting 2:00 Closing comments 6
Slide 7: Review of 2018 IRP
Review of 2018 IRP 7
Slide 8: Review of 2018 IRP (Capacity Mix in 2037)
Review of 2018 IRP (Capacity Mix in 2037) 2018 DEI Preferred Portfolio 8
Slide 9: Portfolio Selection Criteria
Portfolio Selection Criteria 9
Slide 10: Stakeholder Feedback from 2018 IRP
Stakeholder Feedback from 2018 IRP Feedback Proposal for 2021 IRP Process More info on Load Forecast Included in Stakeholder meeting #1 and in IRP Source of resource information Combination of consultant, public, RFI data More IRP improvement discussion Will add more description in IRP Interrupted d
Slide 11: Comparison of 2018 IRP and 2015 SH Portfolios
Comparison of 2018 IRP and 2015 SH Portfolios 11
Slide 12: Contemplated changes for 2021 IRP
Contemplated changes for 2021 IRP Topic Constraints and Approaches Change to Encompass Model Parallel testing in 2020 Eastern Interconnect Modeling Feedback of evolving resources impact on power prices will be modeled Risk Driven Scenarios Stakeholder suggestion Source data/Confidentiality Publicly
Slide 13: Tentative timeline/topics for 2021 IRP
Tentative timeline/topics for 2021 IRP Meeting #/Date* Topics 1) November 10 Introduction; Lessons learned/improvement opportunities; Load forecasting 2) Late January Scenarios, AMI data & customer programs, DERs 3) March/April Optimized portfolios & misc. topics 4) June/July Modeling results; hybri
Slide 14: Lunch
Lunch 14
Slide 15: Overview of Load Forecasting
Nate Gagnon, Lead Planning Analyst Overview of Load Forecasting 15
Slide 16: Energy Sales Forecast Methodology: High Level Process
Energy Sales Forecast Methodology: High Level Process 2) Quantify and test relationship 1) Identify forecast variables between forecast drivers and historical sales 3) Obtain variable projections History (Forecast Variables) Economic variables 1 1 Economic variables Projection (Forecast Electric Rat
Slide 17: Forecast Methodology: Energy Sales Forecast Drivers
Forecast Methodology: Energy Sales Forecast Drivers Retail Load System Load Residential Commercial Industrial Government Wholesale • Population • Gross Domestic • Manufacturing • Employment • Contract by • Income Product Employment • Rates Contract • Rates • Retail Sales • Industrial • Weather • Ret
Slide 18: Residential
Residential Residential Customer Growth Residential Sales Growth 1.6% 20% 15% 10% : ce Mish 0.0% —— =p 08% | i 06% 0% % 0.2% 7 0.0% . > ob S > gh gh df 2S PP PSPS gg? Pg MG? GP ig? cP cP g? gS LL LL SLL LLL LL LLL LSS 1m Residential Customer Growth -Actual_m Residential Customer Grovith - Forecasted
Slide 19: General Service
General Service & DUKE ENERGY. General Service Customer Growth General Service Sales Growth 20% I li. - 00% iy eae 20% o% wth : 80% LEH PF PHP MPG PLHP PF 0.0% 2S OPI LOP MMII ELD POS PF? GHG? GPG GG? GG? PMP Pw! '™ General Service Customer Growth - Actual i. you” ae 1 General Service Sales Growth -
Slide 20: Industrial
Industrial (DUKE ENERGY. Industrial Customer Growth oP oo Dd OP DP gD? SPP SP SP SO SP SP SP gr Sh PP PPG? GL? G7? HMM MP? 1m Industrial Customer Growth - Actual 2.0% | . | | Ta. - I 1 00% 1" 206 | soe 8.0% 0.0% PPP PP ge SPs 1 Industrial Customer Growth - Forecasted i Industrial Sales Growth - Actu
Slide 21: Total Retail
Total Retail Total Retail Customer Growth Total Retail Service Sales Growth 14% 12% 100% | .f lis -o toe _ a 06% 2.0% 30% 0.4% 4.0% | 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% > gh 0 od POP a Gh gr PP oP od FPS > PP gh Sd. GP. PSP gh SP go gl GP GP ge gg? GPS). PS... 6P 5? c.g? 3 PPPS SP 8 SP rg? oP? SP SP PGS LLLP PMH HK MK
Slide 22: 2020 Monthly Sale Variances Compared to 2019 / Covid Impacts on Large Customer Load
2020 Monthly Sale Variances Compared to 2019 / Covid Impacts on Large Customer Load 2020 MONTHLY SALE VARIANCES COMPARED TO 2019 COVID IMPACTS ON LARGE CUSTOMER LOAD DEI 2nd and 3rd quarter variances COMPANY 1 COMPANY 2 COMPANY 3 COMPANY 4 COMPANY 5 COMPANY 6 COMPANY 7 COMPANY 8 Q2 COMPANY 9 Q3 COMP
Slide 23: Net Impact to System Load – EV & NEM
Net Impact to System Load – EV & NEM 23
Slide 24: Net Impact to Peak – EV & NEM
Net Impact to Peak —- EV & NEM fmm NEM Industrial mmm EV Public wm NEM C. EV Residential smn NEM Residential © -—=Net Impact DEI NEM/EV Net Load (MW) on Winter Peak DEI NEM/EV Net Load (MW) on Summer Peak 160 300 140 120 100 20 60 40 20 ° DEI NEM/EV Net Impact as Percent of Winter Peak 3.0% 2024 (DU
Slide 25: EIA Form 861 – Annual Incremental EE Savings
EIA Form 861 – Annual Incremental EE Savings 25
Slide 26: DEI – Residential and Commercial Energy Intensity
DEI – Residential and Commercial Energy Intensity 26
Slide 27: Moody's Forecast Assumptions
Moody’s Forecast Assumptions Key Assumptions: • We assume 16.2 million COVID-19 cases and the seven-day moving average of new confirmed cases peaks at 65,363 on August 14. • The Fed keeps the target range for the fed funds rate at 0% to 0.25% into 2023. The Fed’s emergency lending facilities remain
Slide 28: Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments
Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments 28
Slide 29: Wrap Up
Wrap Up • Interest level in an evening Q&A • Meeting survey to be sent out in the next week to attendees • Comments can also be sent to: • Scott at: scott.park@duke-energy.com • Stewart at: stewart@vanry.com • Meeting summary and other materials will be posted on website by Nov 17th • https://www.du
Slide 30: Acronyms
Acronyms AMI Advanced Metering Infrastructure DR Demand Response DER Distributed Energy Resource DEI Duke Energy Indiana EV Electric Vehicles EE Energy Efficiency EIA Energy Information Administration IURC Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission IRP Integrated Resource Plan MW Megawatt NEM Net Energy