Slide 1: Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q3 2023
Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q3 2023 Dr Roelof Botha
Slide 2: Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q3 2023
Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) Q3 2023 (Note: 4 quarter average) Index; Q1 2014 = 100 111.5 111.0 110.5 110.0 109.5 109.0 108.5 108.0
Slide 3: Total employment
Total employment (Source: Stats SA) Million 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5
Slide 4: Employment trends in the public and private sectors
Employment trends in the public and private sectors (Sources: Stats SA; SARB) Index; 2015 = 100 111 Private Public 108 105 102 99 96 93 90
Slide 5: Total labour remuneration at constant 2023 prices
Total labour remuneration at constant 2023 prices (Note: 4 quarter average; Source: Stats SA) R billion 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 780
Slide 6: Credit impairments by banks at constant 2023 prices
Credit impairments by banks at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB) R billion 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140
Slide 7: Household debt costs as % of income
Household debt costs as % of income (Source: SARB) % 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.6 7.1 6.6
Slide 8: Household credit extension at constant 2023 prices
Household credit extension at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB – deflated by the CPI) R billion 2300 2250 2200 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800
Slide 9: Number of mortgage bond applications administered by Betterbond & the prime rate
Number of mortgage bond applications administered by Betterbond (indexed) & the prime rate Bond applications Prime rate 105 12 Bond Index (Apr'22=100) Prime rate 100 11.5 95 11 10.5 90 10 85 9.5 80 9 75 8.5 70 8 65 7.5 60 7 Apr'22 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb'23 Apr Jun Aug Oct
Slide 10: Unit trust assets at constant 2023 prices
Unit trust assets at constant 2023 prices (Source: SARB) R trillion 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
Slide 11: Total household disposable income at constant 2023 prices
Total household disposable income at constant 2023 prices (Note: 4-quarter average; Source: SARB) R billion 1140 1120 1100 1080 1060 1040 1020 1000
Slide 12: Year-on-year GDP growth at current prices and the real prime rate
Year-on-year GDP growth at current prices and the real prime rate (Note: GDP = 4Q average; Sources: Stats SA; own calculations) % 14 GDP Real prime 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 4 Q1'15 2 3 4 Q1'16 2 3 4 Q1'17 2 3 4 Q1'18 2 3 Q1'19 2 3 4 Q1'20 2 3 4 Q1'21 2 3 4 Q1'22 2 3 4 Q1'23 2 3
Slide 13: Inflation remains within SARB's target range
Inflation remains within SARB’s target range (avg. quarterly annualised CPI & PPI change) (Source: Stats SA) % 18 Consumer price index 16 14 12 10 Top of target range 8 6 4 2 0 Q1'20 2 3 4 Q1'21 2 3 4 Q1'22 2 3 2 Q1'23 2 3 4
Slide 14: Thank you
ALTRON FINTECH