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Cme — UkrAgroConsult — CME Group Event Singapore (APAC Agri Week 2022)
57 slides from Cme's conference presentation, Aug 2, 2022
Slide 1: Black Sea Export Outlook and Supply Chain Changes
Black Sea Expor Outlook and Sup Chain Change Sergey Feofilo UkrAgroConsult СME Group Event Singa August 2, 2022
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The opinions expressed in this presentation are the opinions of the writer and do not represent the official position of UkrAgroConsult.
Slide 3: UkrAgroConsult Market Analysis
UkrAgroConsult Market Analysis Analytical Reports: Ukraine Logistics Trends. Daily & Weekly Report Daily Market Report. Price Trends (Grain, Soybeans, Sunflower) Weekly market review ‘Black Sea Grain’ Weekly market review ‘Black Sea Vegoil’ Our analytical reports are based on long- term moni
Slide 4: Decline in the Black Sea Grain Production-2022
Decline in the Black Sea Grain Production-2022
Slide 5: But the Black Sea Grain Exports Potential is stable
But the Black Sea Grain Exports Potential is stable
Slide 6: Ukrainian Public Farms: Stock Prices Drop
Ukrainian Public Farms: Stock Prices Drop
Slide 7: Ukrainian wheat at the global market
Ukrainian wheat at the global market
Slide 8: Ukrainian corn at the global market
Ukrainian corn at the global market
Slide 9: Ukrainian sunflower oil at the global market
Ukrainian sunflower oil at the global market
Slide 10: Drastic drop in grain export after February 24th
Drastic drop in grain export after February 24th
Slide 11: Domestic Ukrainian Values dropped
Domestic Ukrainian Values dropped
Slide 12: Huge Spread between FOB and CPT prices of wheat in Ukraine
Huge Spread between FOB and CPT prices of wheat in Ukraine The Spread indicates Ukrainian Farmers Losses
Slide 13: Vegoils Prices and Ukraine SFS Prices, USD/MT
Vegoils Prices and Ukraine SFS Prices, USD/MT
Slide 14: Prices of Sunflower Seed
Prices of Sunflower Seed June 30, 2021 13.500 September 1, 2021 16 000 February 24, 2022 21 600 April 19, 2022 13.500 June 30, 2022 10 000 Z UkrAgroConsult
Slide 15: Ukraine: Key Sources of Financing of Farmers
Ukraine: Key Sources of Financing of Farmers 2021 2017 Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Slide 16: Dropping Grain Exports, 2021/22
Dropping Grain Exports, 2021/22 Crop. KMT Export Jul-Feb Mar Apr May Jun Exportable potential* Stocks *** Wheat 23500 18150 310 127 65 143 4705 Barley 5850 5666 7 25 11 36 105 Corn** 35000 18046 1122 783 1184 1245 12620 *UkrAgroConsult pre-war estimate **Sep-Aug ***incl. unpredictable losses
Slide 17: Dropping VegOil & Oilseed Exports and Growing Stocks, 2021/22
Dropping VegOil & Oilseed Exports and Growing Stocks, 2021/22 Crop. KMT Export Sep-Feb Mar Apr May Jun-Aug* Exportable potential stocks * Sunflower 1360 39 10 104 342 865 - Sunfl. oil 7000 2941 29 130 203 497 3200 Soybean 1800 782 36 57 67 118 1444 Rapeseed 2687 2648 7 11 8 13 - ** *UkrAgroConsult e
Slide 18: Main crops sowing areas in Ukraine, 2021
Main crops sowing areas in Ukraine, 2021
Slide 19: Some regions of Ukraine are not safe for field works, as of July
Some regions of Ukraine are not safe for field works, as of July:
Slide 20: Wheat production in Ukraine in 2022
Wheat production in Ukraine in 2022 Wheat 2021/22 2022/23 Area. Th. ha 7090 4750 Yield. mt/ha 4.53 4.21 Crop. KMT 32151 20000 Export. KMT 18750 15700
Slide 21: Barley production in Ukraine in 2022
Barley production in Ukraine in 2022 Barley 2021/22 2022/23 Area. Th. ha 2472 1645 Yield. mt/ha 3.82 3.59 Crop. KMT 9437 5900 Export. KMT 5670 2500
Slide 22: Corn in Ukraine in 2022
Corn in Ukraine in 2022 Corn 2021/22 2022/23 Area. Th. ha 5482 4363 Yield. mt/ha 7.67 5.89 Crop. KMT 42110 25700 Export. KMT 23500 31500
Slide 23: Yellow Peas production in Ukraine in 2022
Yellow Peas production in Ukraine in 2022 Pea 2021/22 2022/23 Area. Th. ha 243 125 Yield. mt/ha 2.2 2.0 Crop. KMT 578 250 Export. KMT 335 245
Slide 24: Sunflower production in Ukraine in 2022
Sunflower production in Ukraine in 2022 Sunflower 2021/22 2022/23 Area. Th. ha 6750 4705 Yield. mt/ha 2.46 2.4 Crop. KMT 16482 10740 Export (SFS 3900 5700 oil). KMT
Slide 25: Military Risk: Gap between Planted and harvested areas, 2022
Military Risk: Gap between Planted and harvested areas, 2022
Slide 26: Ukraine. The biggest decline in Sunseed Harvest, 2022
Ukraine. The biggest decline in Sunseed Harvest, 2022
Slide 27: Soybean production in Ukraine, 2022
Soybean production in Ukraine, 2022 Soybean 2021/22 2022/23 Area. Th. ha 1350 1235 Yield. mt/ha 2.64 2.45 Crop. KMT 3498 3014 Export. KMT 1060 2000
Slide 28: Rapeseed production in Ukraine, 2022
Rapeseed production in Ukraine, 2022 Rapeseed 2021/22 2022/23 Area. Th. ha 1155 1435 Yield. mt/ha 2.93 2.72 Crop. KMT 2974 3142 Export. KMT 2687 2650
Slide 29: Lower Spring Crops areas in 2022
Lower Spring Crops areas in 2022 Planted area. Planted area. 2022 vs 2021, Crop 2022. Th. ha 2021. Th. ha % Spring wheat 191.1 187.6 +2% Spring barley 951.4 1336.6 -29% Oats 159.3 178.1 -11% Peas 131.0 242.8 -46% Corn 4639.4 5522.4 -16% Sunflower 4702.7 6622.0 -29% Soybeans 1212.6 1310.8 -7%
Slide 30: Ukraine. Decline in 2022 Grain and Oilseeds Production, Forecast
Ukraine. Decline in 2022 Grain and Oilseeds Production, Forecast 2022 2021, harv. 2022 harv. Yield, Crop seeded Crop, Mmt area, K ha area, K ha t/ha area, K ha Wheat 7090 6730 4750 4.21 20.0 Barley 2472 2005 1645 3.59 5.9 Corn 5482 4555 4363 5.89 25.7 SFS 6750 4705 4475 2.40 10.7 Soy 1350 1235 1230
Slide 31: Estimates for Ukraine Harvest-2022: USDA vs. UAC
Estimates for Ukraine Harvest-2022: USDA vs. UAC
Slide 32: Ukraine: Sunseed Crushing Capacities, MMT
Ukraine: Sunseed Crushing Capacities, MMT
Slide 33: Ukraine: Domestic Crushing of the Oilseeds Crop, KMT
Ukraine: Domestic Crushing of the Oilseeds Сrop, KMT
Slide 34: Ukrainian Wheat: Export Destinations
Ukrainian Wheat: Export Destinations
Slide 35: Ukrainian Wheat: What are the Alternatives?
Ukrainian Wheat: What are the Alternatives?
Slide 36: Ukrainian Corn: Main Export Destinations
Ukrainian Corn: Main Export Destinations
Slide 37: Alternatives for Ukrainian corn?
Alternatives for Ukrainian corn?
Slide 38: Ukrainian corn to China?
Ukrainian corn to China? Sales of US corn of new MY to China, KMT 29-Feb 19-Apr 8-Jun 28-Jul 16-Sep #2020 m2021 a 2022 Z UkrAgroConsult
Slide 39: Ukraine. Deep Drop of SFO Exports and Soaring SFS Exports
Ukraine. Deep Drop of SFO Exports and Soaring SFS Exports
Slide 40: Ukraine. Decline of Soybean Exports and Stable Rapeseed Exports
Ukraine. Decline of Soybean Exports and Stable Rapeseed Exports
Slide 41: Ukraine: elevator capacities in the regions out of control
Ukraine: elevator capacities in the regions out of control
Slide 42: Ukraine: alternative storage methods
Ukraine: alternative storage methods
Slide 43: Ukraine. Agricultural export by transport mode.
Ukraine. Agricultural export by transport mode. 20/21
Slide 44: Marine traffic in Black sea and Azov sea
Marine traffic in Black sea and Azov sea February 16 July 15
Slide 45: Only three Ukrainian ports now work for export
Only three Ukrainian ports now work for export
Slide 46: Ukraine. Transshipment of agricultural products through seaports, MY 2020/21
Ukraine. Transshipment of agricultural products for export through seaports, MY 2020/21
Slide 47: Ukraine. Transshipment through the ports of Big Odesa, K mt
Ukraine. Transshipment of agricultural products through the ports of Big Odesa, K mt
Slide 48: Alternative Route for Grain Exports
Alternative Route for Grain Exports ~30 EUR/MT Z UkrAgroConsult
Slide 49: Baltic Sea Ports able for Ukraine export grain transshipment
Baltic Sea Ports able for Ukraine export grain transshipment
Slide 50: Danube Delta (Sulina Branch)
Danube Delta (Sulina Branch)
Slide 51: July-Oct. Soaring Exports. Ukraine and Romania.
July-Oct. Soaring Exports. Ukraine and Romania.
Slide 52: Ukrainian grain transit through the port of Constantza
Ukrainian grain transit through the port of Constantza
Slide 53: Ukraine: alternative export channels for grain/oil crops/veg oils
Ukraine: alternative export channels for grain/oil crops/veg oils • European ports of Gdynia\Gdansk in Poland/Baltic countries. • Another option for grain export is grain by rail containers. The maximum throughput capacity is 755 containers per day (about 15 KMT of grain).
Slide 54: Ukraine. Export of agricultural products by mode of transport, KMT
Ukraine. Export of agricultural products by mode of transport, KMT
Slide 55: UkrAgroConsult Market Analytics
UkrAgroConsult Market Analytics Analytical Platform AgriSupp AgriSupp is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains, pulses and oilseeds markets. The platform provides access to daily operational information on the Black Sea markets, analytical reports, historical data, a
Slide 56: Thank you! Subscribe to UkrAgroConsult
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Slide 57: Subscribe to UkrAgroConsult Market Reports
Subcribe to UkrAgroConsult Market Reports Tel./fax +380 (44) 364 55 85 Multi-channel Address: Office 5, Tymoshenko Str. 29V, 04205, Kyiv, Ukraine uac-info@ukragroconsult.org www.ukragroconsult.com www.agrisupp.com
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