Capital Power Corporation · TSX:CPX
Capital Power — Investor Presentation (January 2025)
32 slides from Capital Power's investor presentation, January 2025
Slide 1: Contracted for stability; positioned for growth
Reliable Affordable Clean Contracted for stability; positioned for growth January 2025 Guidance Presentation 1
Slide 2: Territorial Acknowledgement
Territorial Acknowledgement In the spirit of reconciliation, Capital Power respectfully acknowledges that we operate within the ancestral homelands, traditional and treaty territories of the Indigenous Peoples of Turtle Island, or North America. Capital Power’s head office is located within the trad
Slide 3: Today's Presenters
2025 Guidance Presentation Today’s Presenters Sandra Haskins Avik Dey Jason Comandante SVP, Finance and President and Chief Chief Financial SVP, Head of Canada Executive Officer Officer 3
Slide 4: Focus Points
2025 Guidance Presentation 1 Shareholder value creation priorities | Avik Dey Focus 2 Natural gas fueling the energy expansion | Jason Comandante Points 3 2025 Guidance | Sandra Haskins 4 Concluding Messages | Avik Dey 4
Slide 5: 2024 was a remarkable year for Capital Power
2025 Guidance Presentation 2024 was a remarkable year for Capital Power Growth Decarbonization Added ~2 GW of flexible generation ~3.4MT annual emission reductions(1) Diversification Asset Rotation 50/50 capacity Canada/US $340M renewable sell-down 2024 Total Shareholder Return (TSR): ~80% 1. Emissi
Slide 6: Unmatched in-house operational expertise
2025 Guidance Presentation Unmatched in-house operational expertise Large and diversified generation footprint 14 Owned natural ~10 GW gas facilities 5th largest Total owned capacity, ~85% natural gas North American natural gas IPP Strong balance sheet and liquidity Proven ability to acquire and opt
Slide 7: Shareholder value creation priorities
2025 Guidance Presentation Shareholder value creation priorities Flexible Generation and Renewables Contract Optimize Acquire Develop Optimization & Expand Targeted Annual TSR of 12-14% 7
Slide 8: Significant re-rate potential for US Flexible Generation
2025 Guidance Presentation PJM Capacity Price Comparison ($/MW-day) 466 Illustrative example: Increased PJM capacity price remains below estimated net CONE Contract Optimization 270 Significant re-rate potential for US Flexible Generation 29 (2) 2024 / 2025 2025 / 2026 Illustrative CONE (net) Histor
Slide 9: Building fleetwide efficiencies through optimization and expansion
2025 Guidance Presentation York(1) and Goreway Uprates ~60MW ~$14M 3 & 6 year Optimize & Expand Capacity Annual EBITDA Contract Building fleetwide Added Benefit Extensions efficiencies through optimization and Decatur CT Uprate expansion ~90MW ~$8M 10 year Capacity Annual EBITDA Contract Added Benef
Slide 10: Compelling US M&A value proposition
2025 Guidance Presentation Natural Gas Generation(1) Large and fragmented market ~3,000 ~900 GW Facilities Capacity Acquire Compelling Owners motivated >2/3(2) US M&A value to monetize US natural gas capacity acquired by financial buyers proposition Lower cost ~20 – 50%(3) with certainty Lower cost
Slide 11: Material renewables growth with future sell-down potential
2025 Guidance Presentation CPX Renewables Capacity (MW) 620 Develop Material renewables Remaining solar panels(1) 320 growth with future 1,500 sell-down potential Operating renewables Under construction Potential development Renewable assets: 13 operating, 4 under construction 1. Solar panels remain
Slide 12: 2025 Strategic Priorities
2025 Guidance Presentation 2025 Strategic Priorities Contract Optimization Re-contract / contract flexible generation (including data centers) Optimize and Expand Maximize facility asset life and value Acquire Expand flexible generation portfolio Develop Grow renewables portfolio 12
Slide 13: Natural gas is fueling the energy expansion
2025 Guidance Presentation Reliable Affordable Clean Natural gas is fueling the energy expansion 13
Slide 14: Strong power fundamentals favour existing natural gas generation
2025 Guidance Presentation Strong power fundamentals favour existing natural gas generation Multi-faceted power Natural gas: Existing natural demand growth fueling the future gas undervalued • C&I • Reliable • Compelling acquisition • Residential • Affordable opportunity • Transportation • Clean • D
Slide 15: Robust and multi-faceted data center power demand growth
2025 Guidance Presentation US Data Center Power Demand (TWh)(1) • AI Robust and ~17% CAGR multi-faceted • • App support Video / streaming data center power • Financial transactions demand growth • Cloud computing 2020 2030E Majority of projected data center power demand growth is not from AI 1. Gold
Slide 16: Existing gas thermal capacity offers certainty of cost and timing
2025 Guidance Presentation Existing gas thermal capacity offers certainty of cost and timing over greenfield development (1) Cost vs Time 16,000 Vogtle 3 and 4 (United States) 14,000 COD: 2023 / 2024 12,000 10,000 $USD/kW Flamanville 3 (France) Olkiluoto 3 8,000 (Finland) COD: 2024 COD: 2023 6,000 4
Slide 17: Capital Power's data center screening criteria for sites
2025 Guidance Presentation Capital Power’s data center screening criteria for sites Reliable Power, Strategic Locations Fast Deployment with Available Land Available capacity Co-location ready sites in strong markets Grid connection in the works Located near DC clusters Infrastructure Future-ready S
Slide 18: Strategically positioned existing capacity available for data center contracting
2025 Guidance Presentation Capacity Available at Genesee ~1.5+ GW Strategically positioned natural gas + CCS opportunity existing capacity available for data center contracting over the Additional Capacity(1) next five years 2025 - 2027 2028+(2) 1.6 GW 4.7 GW natural gas natural gas 1. Includes flex
Slide 19: Multiple sources of growth driving power demand
2025 Guidance Presentation US Power Demand CAGR (%)(1) 0.9% 2.9% ~70% 0.6% Multiple sources of growth driving 0.8% power demand 0.6% Residential C&I (ex DC) Transportation Data Centers Total ~70% of projected power demand growth is not from data centers 1. Goldman Sachs global investment research, E
Slide 20: Natural gas is critical to meeting growing electricity demand
2025 Guidance Presentation Natural gas is critical to meeting growing electricity demand Abundant low-cost gas supply ~900 GW of existing gas-fired capacity(1) Ensures Affordability Able to provide base load and peaking capacity • Efficient power production and Natural Gas decarbonization potential
Slide 21: 2025 Guidance
2025 Guidance Presentation Reliable Affordable Clean 2025 Guidance 21
Slide 22: We have delivered superior total shareholder returns
2025 Guidance Presentation Total Shareholder Return(1) (10-year CAGR) ~9% ~16% We have delivered superior total shareholder returns and have ample ~7% opportunity going forward Compounded Price Total dividend appreciation return 1. Total shareholder return is comprised of share price appreciation an
Slide 23: 2025 Guidance Summary ($M)
2025 Guidance Presentation 2025 Guidance Summary ($M) Adjusted EBITDA AFFO Sustaining Capex 1,340-1,440 1,310-1,410 195-225 850-950 180-200 770-870 2024 Revised Guidance 2025 Guidance 2024 Guidance 2025 Guidance 2024 Guidance 2025 Guidance 23
Slide 24: Stable and contracted EBITDA with potential for growth ($M)
2025 Guidance Presentation Stable and contracted EBITDA with potential for growth ($M) 1,340-1,440 1,265-1,315 Base Enhanced Total Capacity and tolling contracts Less than 1-year hedges and Energy margin contracts optimization of non-baseload Long term hedges facilities 24
Slide 25: Year over year adjusted EBITDA reconciliation ($M)
2025 Guidance Presentation Year over year adjusted EBITDA reconciliation ($M) 1,340-1,440 New assets: Full year La 1,310-1,410 Paloma and Harquahala, Halkirk 2, Ontario BESS, Alberta and California energy margin 2024 Revised Guidance New Assets Corporate AB / CA margin 2025 Guidance 25
Slide 26: Year over year AFFO reconciliation ($M)
2025 Guidance Presentation Year over year AFFO reconciliation ($M) 850-950 Higher Adjusted EBITDA and lower current taxes 770-870 Increased interest expense and sustaining capital program 2024 Guidance Adjusted EBITDA Current tax Financing Sustaining CAPEX Other 2025 Guidance 26
Slide 27: 2025: Fully Funded | Strong Liquidity | Ready to Grow
2025 Guidance Presentation 2025: Fully Funded | Strong Liquidity | Ready to Grow Sources Uses Cash and ST credit facilities Repayment of debt and other DRIP Committed growth / ~$1.1B ~$1.1B enhanced capex AFFO Dividends 27
Slide 28: Concluding Messages
2025 Guidance Presentation Reliable Affordable Clean Concluding Messages 28
Slide 29: CPX Investment Thesis
2025 Guidance Presentation CPX Investment Thesis Strong fundamentals favour existing gas generation capacity Large, diversified existing generation footprint Unparallel in-house operational and commercial expertise Proven ability to acquire and optimize thermal generation assets Contracted cash flow
Slide 30: Questions & Answers
2025 Guidance Presentation Reliable Affordable Clean Questions & Answers 30
Slide 31: Forward-looking information
2025 Guidance Presentation Reliable Affordable Clean Forward-looking information Forward-looking information or statements included in this presentation are provided to inform our • electricity and other energy and carbon prices; shareholders and potential investors about management’s assessment of
Slide 32: Investor Relations
Investor Relations Roy Arthur VP, Investor Relations 1-403-736-3315 | investor@capitalpower.com capitalpower.com 32