Slide 1: Q4 2024 Results Presentation
Q4 2024 Results Presentation February 19, 2025
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward looking statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looki
Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements (continued)
Forward looking statements Forward Looking Statements (continued) delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities or challenges related to our major facilities that are out of our control; interruptions of or constraints in availability of key inputs, including natural gas and sulfur; an
Slide 4: Financial highlights
Financial highlights 2024 Results 2024 Performance Highlights $0.7B Net Earnings • Increased Retail product margins across all geographies • Accelerated downstream network optimization initiatives $5.4B Adjusted EBITDA1 • Mined 35% of our Potash ore tonnes using $1.7B Retail Adjusted EBITDA automati
Slide 5: Demonstrated significant progress towards strategic priorities and 2026 performance targets
Demonstrated significant progress towards strategic priorities and 2026 performance targets Advancing high-return downstream Retail growth opportunities Growth of 8% in proprietary crop nutritional and biostimulants gross margin (2024 vs 2023) Delivering upstream fertilizer sales volume growth Incre
Slide 6: Disciplined and intentional capital allocation strategy
Disciplined and intentional capital allocation strategy Safe and reliable operations $1.7B Sustaining, mine development and pre- stripping capital expenditures1 in 2024 Strong and flexible balance sheet 2.2X Adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA2 Consistent shareholder returns $1.2B Returned to share
Slide 7: Retail results – Q4 2024
Retail results – Q4 2024 Gross Margin ($ millions) Variance Highlights Lower Crop Nutrients • Higher per-tonne margins in N. America $989 $986 • Offset by lower sales volumes Higher Crop Protection Products • Supported by proprietary products, strong operational execution and sell through of lower c
Slide 8: Retail results – 2024
Retail results – 2024 Gross Margin ($ millions) Variance Highlights Higher Crop Nutrients • Higher per-tonne margins in N. America • Growth in proprietary products $4,621 Higher Crop Protection Products • Supported by proprietary products, strong $4,430 operational execution and sell through of lowe
Slide 9: Potash results – Q4 2024
Potash results – Q4 2024 Gross Margin ($ millions) Variance Highlights Lower Average Net Selling Price • Decline in benchmark prices $427 Lower Sales Volumes • More restricted fall application window in $227 N. America • Lower volumes to China and Other Asian markets Q4'23 Average Net Sales COGS Q4'
Slide 10: Potash results – 2024
Potash results – 2024 Gross Margin ($ millions) Variance Highlights Lower Average Net Selling Price • Decline in benchmark prices $2,363 Higher Sales Volumes $1,541 • Supported by low channel inventories • Strong potash affordability in N. America and key offshore markets 2023 Average Net Sales COGS
Slide 11: Nitrogen results – Q4 2024
Nitrogen results – Q4 2024 Gross Margin ($ millions) Variance Highlights Higher Average Net Selling Price • Stronger ammonia net selling prices $313 • Favorable geographic mix $285 Higher Sales Volumes • Higher urea production • Strong regional demand for ammonia Higher COGS • Higher natural gas cos
Slide 12: Nitrogen results – 2024
Nitrogen results – 2024 Gross Margin ($ millions) Variance Highlights Lower Average Net Selling Price • Weaker benchmark prices $1,379 $1,210 Higher Sales Volumes • Higher production in Trinidad • Reliability improvements across our network in N. America Lower COGS 2023 Average Net Sales COGS Other
Slide 13: Financial Guidance
Financial Guidance 13
Slide 14: Financial and Operational Guidance
Financial and Operational Guidance 2025 Annual Guidance1 Ranges as of 2024 February 19, 2025 Full-Year (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) Low High Actuals Retail adjusted EBITDA 1.65 1.85 1.7 Potash sales volumes (million tonnes)2 13.6 14.4 13.9 2 Nitrogen sales volumes (million ton
Slide 15: Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions Retail Adjusted EBITDA ($ billions) $2.3 Market Outlook and Assumptions • Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low and demand $1.9 $1.85 remains strong, providing a supportive environment for ag commodity $1.7 prices in 2025. $1
Slide 16: Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2025 Potash Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) 4.0 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.5 • Global potash shipments rebounded to approximately 72.5Mmt in 2024, driven by improved supply and supportive application economics that
Slide 17: Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2025 Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) 3.5 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.0 • Global urea and UAN prices increased in Q1 2025, driven by strengthening demand in key import markets and restricted supply. 2.5 • G
Slide 18: Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2025 Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) 0.7 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range • Phosphate fertilizer markets remain firm, particularly in North America 0.6 where inventories were estimated to be historically low en
Slide 19: Disciplined approach to capital expenditures
Disciplined approach to capital expenditures Capital Expenditures ($ billions) Investing Capital Priorities • Retail: high value proprietary products categories, network $2.6B optimization and digital capabilities $2.2B $2.0B - $2.1B • Potash: mine automation projects that enhance productivity and s
Slide 20: Market Outlook
Market Outlook 20
Slide 21: Global grains stocks/use ratios are historically low, supporting ag commodity prices in 2025
Global grains stocks/use ratios are historically low, providing a supportive environment for ag commodity prices in 2025 Global Grains Ending Stocks & Stocks/Use Ratio1 (ending stocks Mmt) (stocks/use ratio %) 400 Grain Ending Stocks for RoW US Grain Ending Stocks Global Stocks/Use Ratio 20% 350 300
Slide 22: Tight inventories have supported prices of many key global crops
Tight inventories have supported prices of many key global crops US Corn Avg. Realized Price1,2 US Soybean Avg. Realized Price1,2 US Wheat Avg. Realized Price1,2 (US$/bushel) (US$/bushel) (US$/bushel) $11.12 $6.34 $4.74 $10.53 $10.10 $4.47 $5.74 $4.35 $5.55 10-year Avg. 2024E 2025F 10-year Avg. 2024
Slide 23: Crop input costs have declined supporting grower affordability and prospective cash margins
Crop input costs have declined supporting grower affordability and prospective cash margins Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1,2,5 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs1,3,4 (USD/acre, CAD/acre, BRL/hectare) (US$/bushel) US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans $7.00 460 4,500 $6.00 36
Slide 24: We expect global potash shipments between 71 and 75 million tonnes in 2025
We expect global potash shipments between 71 and 75 million tonnes in 2025 Potash Demand (millions tonnes KCl) 20 17.5-18.5 16.5-18.0 15 13.0-14.0 9.5-10.5 10.0-10.5 10 5 3.5-4.5 0 21 22 23 24E 25F 21 22 23 24E 25F 21 22 23 24E 25F 21 22 23 24E 25F 21 22 23 24E 25F 21 22 23 24E 25F India Other Asia
Slide 25: Limited global capacity additions and potential for supply tightness in 2025
We anticipate limited global capacity additions and the potential for supply tightness in 2025 Potash Production in Selected Regions (millions tonnes KCl) 2023 2024E 2025F 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other 1 1. Includes production from Latin Am
Slide 26: North American natural gas prices remain highly competitive compared to Europe and Asia
North American natural gas prices remain highly competitive compared to Europe and Asia 2025 Key Global Natural Gas Prices1 2025 Global Urea Production Cost Curve2 (US$/MMBtu) (US$/tonne FOB) $18 $500 $450 Canada China Coal $16 US Other $14 $400 $350 $12 $300 $10 $250 $8 $200 $6 $150 $4 $100 $2 $50
Slide 27: US nitrogen trade balance expected to be tight ahead of spring application season
We expect the US nitrogen trade balance to be tight ahead of the spring application season due to the slow pace of imports First Half Fertilizer Year (Jul-Dec) US Nitrogen Trade Balance (imports less exports)1 (thousands of short tons product) 1,500 Ammonia Urea UAN -48% 1,200 900 -52% 600 -154% 300
Slide 28: US nitrogen producer inventories ended 2024 at below average levels
US nitrogen producer inventories ended 2024 at below average levels US Nitrogen Producer Inventory Levels (December 31 Ending) (millions of tonnes product) 1.6 Ammonia Urea UAN 2019-2023 Avg. 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2
Slide 29: We expect Chinese fertilizer exports to be lower compared to the historical average
We expect Chinese fertilizer exports to be lower compared to the historical average China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports (million tonnes) (million tonnes) 12 6 11 10 5 9 8 4 7 6 3 5 4 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F 29 Source: CRU, Argus, Nutrien
Slide 30: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, please visit: www.nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd