National Fuel Gas Company · NYSE:NFG
National Fuel Gas — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation
58 slides from National Fuel Gas's earnings presentation, Jan 30, 2025
Slide 1: Investor Presentation: Fiscal 2025 1st Quarter Update
Investor Presentation Fiscal 2025 – 1st Quarter Update January 29, 2025 Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 1
Slide 2: National Fuel Gas Company
National Fuel Gas Company • Company Overview (3) • Why National Fuel? (8) • Financial Overview (13) • Business Highlights (17) • Supplemental Information • Segment Information (24) • Guidance & Other Financial Information (46) Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 2
Slide 3: Company Overview
Company Overview Corporate HQ: Buffalo, NY NYSE: NFG ~2,300 employees Market Cap: ~$6.2B 122 Years of consecutive dividend payments >10% Adjusted EPS 54 Years of consecutive Growth FY24-FY27E dividend increases 17% reduction in Investment Grade methane emissions credit rating since 2020 Left picture
Slide 4: History of National Fuel
History of National Fuel Industry Pioneer Born From Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 4
Slide 5: NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company
NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company Developing our large, high-quality Adjusted EBITDA(1) acreage in Marcellus & Utica shales Upstream Exploration & Production ~1.2 Million ~1.1 Bcf/day 48% Net acres in Net total production(2) Appalachia Expanding and modernizing pipeline infrastructu
Slide 6: Non-Regulated Business Overview
Non-Regulated Business Overview Exploration & Production Segment (Upstream) • Seneca Resources Company • Total Net Acres (Pennsylvania): ~1.2 million(1) Western Development Area – ~925,000 Acres • Total Proved Reserves: 4.8 Tcfe(1) • Current Net Production: ~1.1 Bcf/d(2) • Firm Transportation Capaci
Slide 7: Regulated Business Overview
Regulated Business Overview Pipeline & Storage Segment (Midstream) • Regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) • Total Rate Base: $1.6 Billion(1) • ~2,600 miles of pipeline / 29 storage fields • National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation: • Firm Contracted Storage Capacity: 71 Bcf • Firm Co
Slide 8: Why National Fuel?
Why National Fuel? Strong Integrated Visibility on Long-Term Long-Standing History Responsibly Responsibly Reducing Reduce Returns EPS & FCF Growth of Shareholder Returns Emissions Emissions Optimized capital Targeting significant 122 years of dividend Continued progress allocation rate base
Slide 9: Integrated Model Drives Strong Returns
Integrated Model Drives Strong Returns NFG’s ROCE Outperforms Peers and Broader Market, on Average, Over a Multi-Year Period Return on Capital Employed(1) NFG vs. S&P 500 and Industry Peers Strong Integrated Business Model Benefits Integrated 20% Returns Operations: Lower cost structure Financia
Slide 10: Strong Value Proposition Driven by Earnings & Cash Flow Outlook
Strong Value Proposition Driven by Earnings & Cash Flow Outlook >10% Consolidated 3-Year Adjusted EPS CAGR (FY24-27E) with Upside from Rising Gas Prices Regulated Businesses Non-Regulated Businesses Strong Increasing EPS Expected to Drive Significant FCF Generation Expected Integrated Future Dividen
Slide 11: Proven Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders
Proven Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders >$590 Million Returned to Shareholders in Last 3 Years Total Return of Share Strong Dividend Capital (1) Integrated Buyback Yield Returns Yield ~5% Visibility on Stable, Growing Dividend … $2.06 …Plus Share Buyback Long-Term per share EPS & FC
Slide 12: Considerable Progress on Emissions Reductions
Considerable Progress on Emissions Reductions Latest Corporate Responsibility Report Provides Enhanced Disclosures on Sustainability Initiatives Strong Integrated Continued Progress On Our Methane Returns Intensity Targets(1) Responsible gas certifications Visibility on Long-Term Pneumatic devic
Slide 13: Financial Overview
Financial Overview Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 13
Slide 14: Strong Q1 and Improved Gas Macro Drive Earnings Higher
Strong Q1 and Improved Gas Macro Drive Earnings Higher Growth in Each Segment Supports Consolidated 3-Year Adj. EPS CAGR >10% (FY24-27E) First Quarter Highlights & Improved FY25 Guidance Adjusted Operating Results(1) ($ per share) +43% Q1 Highlights +35% • E&P – hedging gains more than offset the de
Slide 15: Capital Allocation Priorities Drive Spending Levels
Capital Allocation Priorities Drive Spending Levels Capital Allocation Priorities Capital Expenditures by Segment ($ millions)(1) (2) Utility Pipeline & Storage Gathering Exploration & Production • Invest in regulated growth via modernization Organic and pipeline expansions $973 $936 ~$923 Investmen
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Resiliency Through the Commodity Cycle
Balance Sheet Resiliency Through the Commodity Cycle Conservative Leverage Provides for Opportunistic Capital Allocation Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(1) Current Credit Rating Capitalization Committed to Investment Grade 3.5 x Downgrade Credit Rating Threshold 2.72 x Investment Grade Equity Total Credi
Slide 17: Business Highlights
Business Highlights Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 17
Slide 18: Regulated: Significant Rate Case Activity
Regulated: Significant Rate Case Activity New York: Significant Growth Utility – NY Filed a rate case in October 2023 for new rates effective Rate Case Approved October 1, 2024 (fiscal 2025) Drivers Joint Proposal approved(1) on December 19, 2024, with no significant modifications to the 3-year
Slide 19: NY Utility Rate Case Supports Growing Earnings Outlook
Utility NY Utility Rate Case Supports Growing Earnings Outlook Three-Year Rate Settlement Approved on December 19th, 2024 Joint Proposal approved(1) on December 19, 2024: 3-year rate settlement (fiscal 2025 – 2027) with no significant modifications to the Joint Proposal filed in September New ra
Slide 20: Non-Regulated: Development Creates Differentiated Value
Non-Regulated: Development Creates Differentiated Value Western Development Areas (WDA) Eastern Development Areas (EDA) Legacy Development Area Development Focus Area EDA Transition Highlights Primarily Owned in Fee (No Royalty) EDA development plan drives higher capital efficiencies and cash flow
Slide 21: Non-Regulated: Focused on Capital Efficiency & FCF Generation
Non-Regulated: Focused on Capital Efficiency & FCF Generation Development Program Drives Growing Production with Decreasing Capital Development Program Productivity Increasing Significantly(1) Seneca Net Production (Bcfe) 600 410 - 425 12 M. Cumulative Gas, MCF/1,000(2) 392.0 400 372.5 2023 2024 202
Slide 22: Non-Regulated: Well Productivity Improvements Lowering Breakevens
Non-Regulated: Well Productivity Improvements Lowering Breakevens Well Design Changes Improving Tioga Utica Performance ~20 years of <$2.25 NYMEX Economic Inventory 3.0 40 Estimated Ultimate Recovery (Bcf / 1000 ft.) 35 2.5 30 2.0 (1) 25 Years Inventory 1.5 WDA 20 15 EDA 1.0 10 0.5 5 0.0 0 Pre-Senec
Slide 23: NFG is Uniquely Positioned for AI/Data Center Opportunities
NFG is Uniquely Positioned for AI/Data Center Opportunities • NFG’s vertically integrated natural gas infrastructure in the low-cost Appalachian Basin is uniquely positioned to meet rising gas-fired power generation demand NFG: An Ideal Partner for Power Gen/DC • Actively pursuing development opport
Slide 24: Supplemental Information
Supplemental Information Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 24
Slide 25: Exploration & Production & Gathering Overview
Supplemental Information: Segment Overview Exploration & Production & Gathering Overview Seneca Resources Company, LLC National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, LLC 25 Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 25
Slide 26: Long Runway of Development Opportunities in the EDA
E&P and Gathering Long Runway of Development Opportunities in the EDA Upstream Development Program Utica Development >10 years of inventory with an expected PV-10% breakeven price of less than $2.00/Mmbtu NYMEX Tioga County, PA Low-risk development locations: ~200 Utica, ~70 Marcellus ‒ Average
Slide 27: High Quality Acreage in WDA, Primarily Owned in Fee
E&P and Gathering High Quality Acreage in WDA, Primarily Owned in Fee Western Development Area (WDA) Highlights Marcellus & Utica Trend Fairways(1) ~10 years of fully delineated inventory in the Utica and Marcellus plus significant additional future development potential with expected PV-10% break
Slide 28: Production Supported by Long-Term Contracts
E&P and Gathering Production Supported by Long-Term Contracts 1,400 ~1 Bcf/d of Firm Transportation(1) Firm Sales Portfolio Gross Volumes MDth/d 1,200 In-Basin Firm Sales (2) Will continue to layer-in firm sales deals to reduce in-basin spot exposure 1,000 To Canada, Dawn, NEW Gulf Coast Capacity 50
Slide 29: Fiscal 2025 Sales Mix Provides Near-Term Price Certainty
E&P and Gathering Fiscal 2025 Sales Mix Provides Near-Term Price Certainty Firm Sales & Production Cadence(1) Price Realizations with Hedging (Net Bcfe, $ per MMBtu) 42 ~410418 - 425 98 Bcfe 52 $2.90 ($0.23) ($0.92) ($0.92) 50 ($0.75) Differential to 176 NYMEX $2.63 NYMEX Floor: $3.39 Cap: $4.46 ($0
Slide 30: Hedging Program: Disciplined with Upside Potential
E&P and Gathering Hedging Program: Disciplined with Upside Potential Methodical Approach to Layering in Hedges Over Time Supports Investment Grade Credit Rating Swaps and Fixed Price Sales Provide Price Certainty(1)… …Collars and Unhedged Production Provide Upside Capture Opportunities $4.61 $4.53 $
Slide 31: Integration Drives Industry Leading Cost Structure
E&P and Gathering Integration Drives Industry Leading Cost Structure Seneca Cash OpEx ($/Mcfe) Seneca + Gathering Cash OpEx ($/Mcfe) $0.94 $0.95 $0.95 $0.93 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 (1) $0.18 $0.18 $0.19 $0.11 $0.12 $0.12(2) $0.10 $0.48 $0.57 $0.57 $0.57 (2) -$0.57 FY 2023 FY2024 FY2025E Seneca Less: Plus:
Slide 32: Industry-Leading Focus on Sustainability
E&P and Gathering Industry-Leading Focus on Sustainability Responsible Gas Certifications, Emissions Reductions & Biodiversity Equitable Origin – EO100TM Standard for Responsible Emissions Reductions Energy Development Certification (100% of natural gas production recertified in December 2024) Sur
Slide 33: Pipeline & Storage Overview
Supplemental Information: Segment Overview Pipeline & Storage Overview National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation Empire Pipeline, Inc. 33 Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 33
Slide 34: Pipeline & Storage Segment Overview
Pipeline & Storage Pipeline & Storage Segment Overview National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation Contracted Capacity(1): Firm Transportation: 3,498 MDth per day Firm Storage: 70,693 MDth (fully subscribed) Rate Base(2): ~$1,313 million Empire Pipeline FERC Rate Proceeding Status: Rate case se
Slide 35: Pipeline & Storage Customer Mix
Pipeline & Storage Pipeline & Storage Customer Mix Customer Transportation by Shipper Type(1) Affiliated Customer Mix (Contracted Capacity) Affiliated Non-Affiliated End User 8% 21% Outside Producer Pipeline 52% 28% 15% 80% Marketer 79% 14% LDC 48% 35% 20% LDCs Producers Firm Storage Firm Transport
Slide 36: P&S Capital Expenditures
Pipeline & Storage Pipeline Modernization & Expansion Projects Propel Growth Capex Investments Support Long-Term Rate Base Growth Estimate of ~5-7% P&S Capital Expenditures Organic Growth Drivers Expect long-term capex spend of ~$100-150 MM per year ($ millions) Expansion projects drive further
Slide 37: Tioga Pathway Project Creates Organic Growth
Pipeline & Storage Tioga Pathway Project Creates Organic Growth Long-term revenue growth for Supply, while providing an additional outlet for Seneca’s EDA development Capacity: 190,000 Dth/day Estimated capital cost: ~$100 million A portion of the capital to be allocated to modernization facil
Slide 38: Continued Expansion of the Supply Corp. Line N System
Pipeline & Storage Continued Expansion of the Supply Corp. Line N System Additional Line N Expansion Opportunities Line N corridor is well positioned to serve growing power demand from AI and data centers • Significant data centers exist today, plus more expected in the future • Proximate to fiber
Slide 39: Utility Overview
Supplemental Information: Segment Overview Utility Overview National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation 39 Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 39
Slide 40: New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories
Utility New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories New York Last Rate Case: Joint Proposal approved December 19, 2024 (3- year rate plan effective Oct. 1, 2024 through Sept. 30, 2027) Total Customers(1): ~541,000 Allowed ROE: 9.7% (NYPSC Case 23-G-0627) Rate Mechanisms: o Revenue Decoupling o Weath
Slide 41: NY Utility Regulatory Environment
Utility NY Utility Regulatory Environment NY Regulatory Environment Continues to Prioritize Access to Safe, Reliable and Affordable Energy First utility in the state to submit a LTP (Long-Term Plan) NYPSC implemented NFG’s LTP with modifications in December 2023 Includes an “All-of-the-Above P
Slide 42: Customer Affordability
Utility Customer Affordability New York Pennsylvania #3 #1 Out of 9 Gas Utilities(1) Out of 6 Gas Utilities(2) New York Large Gas Utilities Monthly Bill Pennsylvania Large Gas Utilities Monthly Bill Residential Heating (based on 100 Mcf annually) Residential Heating (based on 15 Mcf monthly) $250 $2
Slide 43: Utility Continues its Significant Investments in Safety
Utility Utility Continues its Significant Investments in Safety Long-Standing Focus on Distribution System Safety and Reliability $180.0 Capital Expenditures for Safety Total Capital Expenditures (1) $184.6 (2) $200.0 $165-$185 $160.0 $180.0 Utility Capital Expenditures ($ millions) $140.0 $160.0 $1
Slide 44: Long-Standing Pipeline Replacement & Modernization
Utility Long-Standing Pipeline Replacement & Modernization Utility Mains by Material(1) Miles of Utility Main Pipeline Replaced(2) Wrought 180 168 Coated Bare Iron 156 161 160 154 154 NY 140 53 49 9,834 miles 40 43 41 Plastic 120 100 80 Wrought Coated Iron Bare 60 114 113 113 115 112 PA 40 4,852 mil
Slide 45: Utility Targeting Substantial Emissions Reductions
Utility Utility Targeting Substantial Emissions Reductions Significant Reductions in Utility GHG Emissions to Date, GHG Reduction Targets, Continuing Focus on Lowering Driven by System Modernization Efforts Carbon Footprint Utility Mains & Services Emissions(1) Utility GHG Emissions Reduction Target
Slide 46: Guidance & Other Financial Information
Supplemental Information Guidance & Other Financial Information Fiscal 2025 Q1 Update 46
Slide 47: Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance
Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance Previous FY25 Adj. EPS Guidance Updated FY25 Adj. EPS Guidance NYMEX Earnings Sensitivities $5.50 to $6.00/share $6.50 to $7.00/share(1) (rem. 9 months) $3.00 $6.15 - $6.65 $3.50 $6.50 - $7.00 Key Guidance Drivers $4.00 $6.90 - $7.40 Net Production 410 - 425 Bcfe Re
Slide 48: Utility Guidance for Fiscal 2025
Utility Guidance Why National for Fiscal 2025 Fuel? Non-Service Pension & Post- Customer Margin* O&M Expense Retirement Benefit Credit $445 - $465 MM $240 - $250 MM $23 - $27 MM • Base rate increase ($57.3 O&M Increase: • Increase in non-service MM revenue requirement) • Personnel costs pension/OPEB
Slide 49: Regulated: Rate Case Overview
Regulated: Rate Case Overview Recent updates in orange Pipeline & Storage Utility Supply Empire NY(2) PA Regulatory Agency (Governed by) FERC FERC NYPSC PAPUC • Settlement approved by • Rates in effect since • Joint Proposal • Settlement approved FERC June 11, 2024 January 1, 2019 approved(2) in Jun
Slide 50: Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements
Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, objectives, goals, projections, estimates of gas quantities, strategies, f
Slide 51: Hedge Portfolio & Capped Firm Sales
Hedge Portfolio & Capped Firm Sales 2Q 2025 3Q 2025 4Q 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 Swaps Units Volume MMBtu 37,150 40,725 40,725 59,215 45,210 12,030 1,500 Wtd. Avg. Floor $ / MMBtu $3.45 $3.41 $3.41 $3.80 $3.88 $3.68 $3.53 Collars Volume MMBtu 13,305 19,080 19,080 76,125 29,720 5,480 -- Wt
Slide 52: Firm Transportation Commitments
Firm Transportation Commitments Volume Delivery Demand Charges Production Source Gas Marketing Strategy (Dth/d) Market ($/Dth) Northeast Supply Canada Firm Sales Contracts Diversification EDA – Tioga 50,000 $0.46 (3rd party) (Dawn) Dawn/NYMEX Tennessee Gas Pipeline NFG pipelines - $0.24 Niagara Expa
Slide 53: Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides & Reconciliations
Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides & Reconciliations This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. For pages that contain non-GAAP financial measures, pages containing the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are provided in the slides that fol
Slide 54: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Consolidated Net Income ($ Thousands) FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 Total Adjusted EBITDA Exploration & Production Adjusted EBITDA 464,529 656,310 611,782 589,831 Pipeline & Storage Adjusted EBITDA 218,921 240,904 237,
Slide 55: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA, by Segment
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA, by Segment Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income, by Segment ($ Thousands) 12-Months FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 Ended 12/30/24 Exploration and Production Segment Reported GAAP Earnings $ (326,904) $ 101,916 $ 306,064 $ 232,275 (163,9
Slide 56: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted Operating Results
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted Operating Results Three Months Ended Fiscal Year Ended December 31, September 30, (in thousands except per share amounts) 2024 2023 (in thousands except per share amounts) 2024 2023 Reported GAAP Earnings $ 44,986 $ 133,020 Reported GAAP Earnings $ 77,513 $ 476,86
Slide 57: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Funds From Operations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Funds From Operations Reconciliation of Funds From Operations (FFO) to Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($ Thousands) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $791,553 $812,521 $1,237,075 $1,065,961 Less: Change in Working Capital: Receivables
Slide 58: Reconciliation – Capital Expenditures
Reconciliation – Capital Expenditures Reconciliation of Segment Capital Expenditures to Consolidated Capital Expenditures ($ Thousands) FY 2025 FY 2023 FY 2024 Guidance Capital Expenditures Exploration & Production Capital Expenditures $ 737,725 $ 536,349 $495,000 - $515,000 Pipeline & Storage Capit
National Fuel Gas Company — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation on 6ix