Assured Guaranty Ltd. · NYSE:AGO
Assured Guaranty — Debt Investor Presentation (September 2019)
71 slides from Assured Guaranty's debt investor presentation, Sep 30, 2019
Slide 1: Fixed Income Investor Presentation September 30, 2019
EMBRACE POSSIBILITIES, INVEST IN CERTAINTIES Fixed Income Investor Presentation September 30, 2019
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Page Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure 2 Conventions, Disclaimers and Non-GAAP Financial Measures 3 Corporate Overview 4 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Insured Portfolio Overview 31 AGM1 Portfolio Review 41 Municipal Assurance Corp. Portfolio Review 50 Assur
Slide 3: Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure
Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future
Slide 4: Conventions, Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Certain Statutory Data
Conventions, Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Certain Statutory Data • Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this presentation: – “AGM Consolidated” means Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and its consolidated entities (consisting primarily of Assured Guaranty (Europe) plc (AGE
Slide 5: Corporate Overview
ASSURED GUARANTY Corporate Overview
Slide 6: Corporate Overview
Corporate Overview • Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“AGL” and, together with its subsidiaries, “Assured Guaranty” or the “Company”) is the leading financial guaranty franchise – We are the only long-standing financial guaranty company to have written new business throughout the financial crisis and recessio
Slide 7: Operating Principles and Investor and Issuer Benefits
Operating Principles and Investor and Issuer Benefits • Underwriting principles and a strong risk management culture designed to protect our franchise • Experienced and disciplined management • Commitment to disclosure and transparency • Our guaranty benefits investors and issuers because we provide
Slide 8: Strategic Priorities
Strategic Priorities • Insurance • Growth of insured portfolio • Loss mitigation • Asset management and alternative investments • Capital management 7
Slide 9: Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure Assured Guaranty Ltd. Hamilton, Bermuda Publicly Traded Holding Company (NYSE: AGO) A (stable outlook) / Baa2 (stable outlook) issuer credit ratings Assured Guaranty Re Ltd (AG Re) Assured Guaranty US Holdings (AGUS) Assured Guaranty Finance Financial Guaran
Slide 10: Four Discrete Operating Companies with Separate Capital Bases
Four Discrete Operating Companies with Separate Capital Bases Consolidated Statutory-Basis Claims-Paying Resources and Exposures As of September 30, 2019 ($ in millions) AGM AGC MAC AG Re8 Eliminations3 Consolidated Claims-paying resources Policyholders' surplus $2,473 $1,756 $245 $838 $(418) $4,894
Slide 11: Principal Insurance Platforms
Assured Guaranty Principal Insurance Platforms • Assured Guaranty Municipal1, MAC, AGC and AGE operate as four separate direct financial guaranty platforms, with AG Re operating as a reinsurer – Assured Guaranty Municipal1 focuses exclusively on public finance and global infrastructure finance – MAC
Slide 12: Principal Insurance Platforms (Continued)
Assured Guaranty Principal Insurance Platforms (Continued) • Companies distinct for legal and regulatory purposes – Separate capital bases – claims-paying resources2 as of September 30, 2019 – AGM1 $5.8 billion, MAC $0.8 billion, AGC $3.3 billion, AG Re $1.9 billion – Separate insurance licenses – S
Slide 13: AGM's Commitment to the Public Finance Market
AGM’s1 Commitment to the Public Finance Market Net Par Outstanding • AGM1 is committed to insuring U.S. public finance As of September 30, 2019 and global infrastructure transactions2. Through its ($ in billions) subsidiary, AGE, AGM1 may underwrite some U.S. structured finance transactions. Structu
Slide 14: Municipal Assurance Corp.
Municipal Assurance Corp. Municipal Only Bond Insurance • MAC is committed to insuring only U.S. public finance transactions; • A $22 billion insured U.S. municipal-only portfolio that is geographically diversified; • Conservative and well-defined underwriting standards; and • A high level of transp
Slide 15: AGC is Our Most Diversified Platform
AGC is Our Most Diversified Platform • AGC, a diversified insurer, may write all Net Par Outstanding classes of financial guaranty business, As of September 30, 2019 including structured finance, U.S. public ($ in billions) finance and global infrastructure • Structured finance eligible for new busi
Slide 16: AG Re and AGRO
AG Re and AGRO • AG Re is an insurance company • AG Re’s subsidiary, AGRO, is a primarily engaged in providing specialty reinsurance company reinsurance to financial guarantors – Rated AA (stable outlook) by S&P and A+ (stable – Rated AA (stable outlook) by S&P outlook) by A.M. Best – Licensed as a
Slide 17: Underwriting Discipline
Underwriting Discipline • Our U.S. public finance portfolio, our largest Consolidated Net Par Outstanding3 exposure category, generally performed well As of September 30, 2019 Non-U.S. Structured Finance during the recession and in subsequent A ($ in billions) years, despite persistent financial pre
Slide 18: Strategic Priorities: Insurance Penetration in U.S. Public Finance
Strategic Priorities Insurance Penetration in the U.S. Public Finance Market (excluding SGI portfolio) • We are focused on building demand for our guarantees, both in the primary and the secondary markets for U.S. public finance – In 3Q 2019, we insured 197 primary market transactions totaling $4.0
Slide 19: Broadening Market Awareness
Broadening Market Awareness Advertising Campaigns
Slide 20: Market Update: Select Assured Guaranty Transactions in 2019
Market Update Select Assured Guaranty Transactions in 2019 Our market leadership has continued into 2019: $700,000,000 $362,220,000 $280,000,000 $204,240,000 $204,230,000 $200,000,000 Taxable Bonds, Series 2019 General Revenue Junior Special Sales Tax Revenue Transportation Revenue Water and Sewer S
Slide 21: Strategic Priorities: U.S. Structured Finance Business Activity
Strategic Priorities Insurance U.S. Structured Finance Business Activity • During 3Q-19, we entered into a commitment to insure an insurance reserve financing U.S. Structured PVP1 transaction (excluding SGI reinsurance portfolio)2 ($ in millions) • During 1Q-19, we insured a collateralized $23 loan
Slide 22: Strategic Priorities: Non-U.S. Business Activity
Strategic Priorities Insurance Non-U.S. Business Activity • During 3Q-19, we closed a guarantee on a debt Non-U.S. PVP1 financing for the construction of university (excluding SGI reinsurance portfolio)2 student accommodations in the United Kingdom ($ in millions) $42 • During 2Q-19, we closed a gua
Slide 23: Strategic Priorities: Puerto Rico Settlement Agreements
Strategic Priorities Insurance Puerto Rico Settlement Agreements • In February 2019, consummated a resolution under a restructuring support agreement of the Company’s Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA) exposure ‒ Paid off the entire exposure of $273 million, plus accrued and unpaid
Slide 24: Strategic Priorities: Commutations
Strategic Priorities Insurance Commutations • Reassumption of previously ceded business has increased the unearned premium reserve and non-GAAP adjusted book value1 Commutations Since 2009 Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer As of September 30, 2019 As of September 30, 2019 Commutation Reassumed Par
Slide 25: Acquisitions and Reinsurance of Legacy Monolines
Strategic Priorities Insurance Acquisitions and Reinsurance of Legacy Monolines • Radian Asset Assurance acquisition closed on April 1, 2015 - Resulted in an increase of $654 million to claims-paying resources, an increase of $193 million to non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity1 and $570 million
Slide 26: Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Strategic Priorities Asset Management and Alternative Investments • On October 1, 2019, Assured Guaranty completed the acquisition of all of the outstanding equity interests in BlueMountain and its associated entities for approximately $160 million - Assured Guaranty contributed $60 million of cash
Slide 27: Financial Strength Ratings
Financial Strength Ratings • In November 2019, S&P affirmed the AA (stable outlook) Financial Strength Ratings financial strength ratings of AGM & MAC As of September 30, 2019 – S&P found the Assured Guaranty group’s capital adequacy ratio S&P Moody’s KBRA to be “well above 1.0x” their AAA requireme
Slide 28: Net Par Outstanding Amortization
Net Par Outstanding Amortization • Amortization of the existing portfolio reduces rating Consolidated Net Par Outstanding Amortization1 agency capital charges, but also embedded future As of September 30, 2019 ($ in billions) earned premiums $640 – Currently, the existing portfolio consists of $219
Slide 29: Assured Guaranty Today
Assured Guaranty Today Insured Portfolio and Capital Changes Since the Global Financial Crisis Claims-Paying Resources Insured Leverage $ in billions $13.2 $12.8 $13.2 $12.6 $12.4 $12.5 $12.6 $12.0 $12.0 $11.8 $11.1 71.3x 70.5x 62.9x 59.8x 53.5x 47.4x 46.7x 46.8x 41.2x 39.4x 40.0x 57% Decline 35.0x
Slide 30: AGL Consolidated Investment Portfolio
AGL Consolidated Investment Portfolio Fair Value as of September 30, 2019 Total Invested Assets and Cash1 Total Invested Assets and Cash1 By Category By Rating2 U.S. NR Other Other U.S. Government & Government 1% Invested Invested Agencies AAA7 Short-term Cash and Assets Assets Nearly 100% of 1% 27%
Slide 31: Credit Default Swap Spreads
Credit Default Swap Spreads • Movements in credit default swap (CDS) levels for Assured Guaranty Municipal1 and AGC continue to be significantly affected by technical factors such as supply/demand imbalance and light trading volume • The deterioration in the asset-backed securities market’s pricing
Slide 32: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Insured Portfolio Overview
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Insured Portfolio Overview
Slide 33: AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio
AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured U.S. Finance Structured <1% Finance 4% Non-U.S. Public Finance 19% U.S. Public Finance 77% $229.4 billion1,2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S.
Slide 34: AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio Ratings
AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio Ratings Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA AA 4% 2% 11% BBB 35% A 48% $229.4 billion1,2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio Public & Structured Finance BIG AAA AA
Slide 35: Puerto Rico Exposure
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Par Exposure to the Commonwealth and its Agencies1,2 As of September 30, 2019 Elimi- ($ in millions) AGM AGC AG Re nations Net Par O/S Gross Par O/S Commonwealth Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds 3 $611 $268 $375 $(1) $1,253 $1,294 Constitutio
Slide 36: Puerto Rico Scheduled Net Par Amortization
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Scheduled Net Par Amortization of Exposure to the Commonwealth and its Agencies As of September 30, 2019 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2029- 2034- 2039- 2044- ($ in millions) 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2033 2038 2043 2047 Total Commonwealth
Slide 37: Puerto Rico Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization of Exposure to the Commonwealth and its Agencies As of September 30, 2019 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2029- 2034- 2039- 2044- ($ in millions) 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2033 2038 2043 2047 Total Comm
Slide 38: Detroit & Stockton Exposure
AGL Consolidated Detroit & Stockton Exposure Details of Assured Guaranty’s Exposure to Detroit • Municipal utilities exposure is $429 million of water revenue bonds and $970 million of sewer revenue bonds. Both the water and sewer systems provide services to areas that extend significantly beyond th
Slide 39: Structured Finance Exposures
Structured Finance Exposures Net Par Outstanding By Type As of September 30, 2019 U.S. and Non-U.S. ($ in billions) • Assured Guaranty’s total structured finance Pooled U.S. exposure of $240.9 billion at December 31, Corporate RMBS $1.5 15% $3.7 2007 has declined by $230.9 billion to $10.0 37% billi
Slide 40: Consolidated U.S. RMBS
Consolidated U.S. RMBS • Our $3.7 billion U.S. RMBS portfolio is amortizing both on a dollar basis and as a U.S. RMBS by Exposure Type1 percentage of the portfolio As of September 30, 2019 – Total U.S. RMBS has declined from $29.2 billion at December ($ in billions) 31, 2009 to $3.7 billion at Septe
Slide 41: Consolidated Non-U.S. Exposure
Consolidated Non-U.S. Exposure Non-U.S. Public and Structured Finance Non-U.S. Exposure As of September 30, 2019 ($ in billions) • 98% of non-U.S. exposure is Public Finance Canada – Direct sovereign debt is limited to Poland ($288 $2.5 Other France million outstanding) and Mexico ($50 million) $5.8
Slide 42: AGM Portfolio Review
AGM Portfolio Review Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 43: AGM Insured Portfolio
AGM1 Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance U.S. <1% Structured Finance 3% U.S. Public Finance 72% Non-U.S. Public Finance 25% $118.4 billion2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Fin
Slide 44: AGM Insured Portfolio Ratings
AGM1 Insured Portfolio Ratings Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA AA 3% 1% 9% BBB 37% A 49% $118.4 billion2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio Public & Structured Finance BIG AAA A BIG AAA 3% <1% A
Slide 45: AGM Insured Portfolio by Asset Type
AGM1 Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Net Par Outstanding By Asset Type ($ in millions) Net Par Avg. Internal Net Par Avg. Internal Outstanding Rating Outstanding Rating U.S. public finance: U.S. structured finance: General obligation $ 34,124 A- RMBS $ 2,161 BBB- Tax b
Slide 46: AGM Projected Amortization of Global Structured Finance Portfolio
AGM1 Projected Amortization of Global Insured Structured Finance Portfolio Portfolio Diversification by Sector Portfolio Diversification by Rating Other Structured BIG AAA Finance $1.1 $0.7 $0.5 U.S. Residential Financial Mortgages BBB Products $2.2 $0.6 (GICs) $1.0 $3.7 Billion Net Par Outstanding2
Slide 47: AGM U.S. RMBS Exposure
AGM1 U.S. RMBS Exposure By Type As of September 30, 2019 ($ in millions) • AGM’s1 U.S. RMBS portfolio is amortizing on an Prime First Lien Alt-A First absolute basis and has declined as a percentage $21 Lien $314 of the portfolio 1% – $2.2 billion net par outstanding versus $17.1 billion at 15% year
Slide 48: AGM Investment Portfolio
AGM1 Investment Portfolio Fair Value as of September 30, 2019 Total Invested Assets and Cash2 Total Invested Assets and Cash2 By Category By Rating3 Short-term & Cash U.S. NR 8 Other Government <1% U.S. AAA 13% 31% Invested & Agencies Government Assets <1% & Agencies 1% Foreign <1% Gov't Other Secur
Slide 49: AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Three Months)
AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Three Months Ended September 30, 2019 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2019 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as Development (Benef
Slide 50: AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Nine Months)
AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Nine Months Ended September 30, 2019 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2019 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss (Paid) Recovered Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as Dev
Slide 51: Municipal Assurance Corp. Portfolio Review
Municipal Assurance Corp. Portfolio Review
Slide 52: MAC Insured Portfolio
MAC Insured Portfolio (100% U.S. Public Finance) Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Portfolio Diversification by Rating 1 BIG AAA AA Muni Utility 1% Revenue 1% 19% 15% BBB 18% Tax Backed 13% General Obligations 63% Other 8% A 61% $21.8 billion Net Par Ou
Slide 53: MAC Investment Portfolio
MAC Investment Portfolio Fair Value as of September 30, 2019 Total Invested Assets and Cash1 Total Invested Assets and Cash1 By Category By Rating2 U.S. Cash Government Short Term 4 3% & Agencies AAA Investments 3% 24% 9% U.S. Government & Agencies 3% Mortgage- BBB backed & 11% Asset- 3 backed 9% St
Slide 54: Assured Guaranty Corp. Portfolio Review
Assured Guaranty Corp. Portfolio Review Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 55: AGC Insured Portfolio
AGC Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance 2% Non-U.S. Public Finance 20% U.S. Public Finance 62% U.S. Structured Finance $23.1 billion 16% Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Financ
Slide 56: AGC Insured Portfolio Ratings
AGC Insured Portfolio Ratings Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 10% 6% AA 20% BBB 34% A 30% $23.1 billion Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio Public & Structured Finance AAA AA BIG AAA BIG BIG <1%
Slide 57: AGC Insured Portfolio by Asset Type
AGC Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2019 Net Par Outstanding By Asset Type ($ in millions) Net Par Avg. Internal Net Par Avg. Internal Outstanding Rating Outstanding Rating U.S. public finance: U.S. structured finance: Tax backed $ 3,367 BBB- RMBS $ 1,208 BBB General obliga
Slide 58: AGC U.S. RMBS Exposure
AGC U.S. RMBS Exposure By Type As of September 30, 2019 ($ in millions) Second Alt-A First Lien • AGC’s U.S. RMBS portfolio is amortizing on Lien $260 $164 an absolute basis and has declined as a percentage of the portfolio Prime First 22% Lien Option 14% – $1.2 billion versus $13.4 billion at year-
Slide 59: AGC Non-RMBS Exposure
AGC Non-RMBS Exposure U.S. Structured Finance U.S. Non-RMBS Structured Finance • AGC’s non-RMBS U.S. structured finance As of September 30, 2019 ($ in billions) exposures consist principally of: Other – Pooled corporate obligations structured finance – Consumer receivables $0.4 – Life insurance tran
Slide 60: AGC Investment Portfolio
AGC Investment Portfolio Fair Value as of September 30, 2019 Total Invested Assets and Cash1 Total Invested Assets and Cash1 By Category By Rating2 Other Cash 6 Invested U.S. AAA Assets 3% Government 18% <1% & Agencies 2% Short-term U.S. 5% Government AA & Agencies 42% 2% Corporates 13% NR 2% States
Slide 61: AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Three Months)
AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Three Months Ended September 30, 2019 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2019 Net Expected Loss to be Economic Loss (Paid) Recovered Net Expected Loss to Paid (Recovered) as of Development
Slide 62: AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Nine Months)
AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Nine Months Ended September 30, 2019 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2019 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss (Paid) Recovered Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as Development (Ben
Slide 63: Appendix
ASSURED GUARANTY
Slide 64: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and financial measures not
Slide 65: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures Non-GAAP Operating Income: Management believes that non-GAAP operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company and presents the results of operations of th
Slide 66: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Management uses non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation
Slide 67: Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP
Appendix Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP Reconciliation of GWP to PVP Three Months Ended September 30, Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions) 2019 2018 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Total GWP $69 $50 $612 $307 $154 $181 $104 Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments 1
Slide 68: Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Non-GAAP Operating Income
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Non-GAAP Operating Income1 Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended Non-GAAP Operating Income1 Reconciliation September 30, September 30, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2019 2018 2019 2018 Per Diluted Per Diluted Per Diluted Per Diluted To
Slide 69: Reconciliation of Shareholders' Equity to Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity to Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value1 Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value1 Reconciliation As of (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) September 30, 2019 June 30, 2019 December 31, 2018 September 30, 2018 June 30, 2018 December 31, 2017 Total Per Share To
Slide 70: Reconciliation of GAAP ROE to Non-GAAP Operating ROE
Appendix Reconciliation of GAAP ROE1 to Non-GAAP Operating ROE1,2 ROE Reconciliation (dollars in millions) Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, September 30, 2019 2018 2019 2018 Net income (loss) $69 $161 $265 $433 Non-GAAP operating income2 77 161 304 390 Gain (loss) related to FG VIE
Slide 71: Assured Guaranty Contacts
Assured Guaranty Contacts: Robert Tucker Senior Managing Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Direct: 212.339.0861 rtucker@agltd.com Michael Walker Managing Director Fixed Income Investor Relations Direct: 212.261.5575 mwalker@agltd.com Andre Thomas Managing Director Investor Rel
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