Johnson Matthey PLC · LSE:JMAT
Johnson Matthey — Investor Presentation (2013)
43 slides from Johnson Matthey's investor presentation, 2013
Slide 1: www.platinum.matthey.com e
www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of relian
Slide 3: Platinum
Platinum www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 4: Platinum in 2012
Platinum in 2012 • Platinum market in deficit of 375,000 oz • Lowest primary supply for 12 years • Marginal increase in autocatalyst demand • Glass and electrical demand sharply down • Strongly rising jewellery demand from China • Lower prices retard autocatalyst recycling www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 5: Platinum supplies
Platinum supplies million oz 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 South Africa Russia North America Others www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 6: Platinum supplies
Platinum supplies ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change South Africa 4,860 4,095 (15.7) Russia 835 800 -4.2 North America 350 295 -15.7 Zimbabwe 340 340 0.0 Others 100 110 10.0 Total 6,485 5,640 -13.0 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 7: South African net supply change 2011-2012
South African net supply change 2011-2012 ‘000 oz 5,500 5,000 + 100 4,860 4,500 - 500 - 175 4,095 - 55 4,000 - 135 3,500 2011 supply Safety Strikes Stock Mine Other 2012 supply stoppages movements closures www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 8: Platinum supplies
Platinum supplies ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change South Africa 4,860 4,095 (15.7) Russia 835 800 (4.2) North America 350 295 (15.7) Zimbabwe 340 340 0.0 Others 100 110 10.0 Total 6,485 5,640 (13.0) www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 9: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,185 3,240 1.7 Industrial 1,755 2,050 16.8 Jewellery 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 10: Gross platinum autocatalyst demand
Gross platinum autocatalyst demand million oz 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe Japan North America China ROW www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 11: Platinum demand in emissions control catalysts and diesel vehicle production
Pt demand in emissions World light duty diesel control catalysts vehicle production million oz million units 5 10 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe Japan N. Am China Rest NRMM HDV LDD LDG 2011 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 12: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,185 3,240 1.7 Industrial 1,975 1,570 (20.5) 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 13: Platinum industrial demand
Platinum industrial demand million oz 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Medical & other www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 14: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,185 3,240 1.7 Industrial 1,975 1,570 (20.5) Jewellery 2,475 2,780 12.3 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 15: Gross platinum jewellery demand
Gross platinum jewellery demand million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe Japan North America China ROW www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 16: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,185 3,240 1.7 Industrial 1,975 1,570 (20.5) Jewellery 2,475 2,780 12.3 Investment 460 455 (1.1) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 17: Platinum investment demand
Platinum investment demand million oz 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Small bars & coins ETFs Large bars Other www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 18: Platinum ETF investment demand
Platinum ETF investment demand million oz $/oz 1.8 2,000 1.6 1,800 1.4 1,600 1.2 1,400 1.0 1,200 2011 2012 Platinum ETF holdings Platinum price www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 19: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,485 5,640 (13.0) Gross demand 8,095 8,045 (0.6) Recycling (2,060) (2,030) (1.5) Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 20: Platinum recycling
Platinum recycling million oz $/oz 2.5 2,000 2.0 1,600 1.5 1,200 1.0 800 0.5 400 0.0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Pt average price www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 21: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,485 5,640 (13.0) Gross demand 8,095 8,045 (0.6) Recycling (2,060) (2,030) (1.5) Net demand 6,035 6,015 (0.3) Stock movement 450 (375) www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 22: Palladium
Palladium www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 23: Palladium in 2012
Palladium in 2012 • Palladium swung into deficit of 1.07 million oz • Lower primary and secondary supplies • Russian state stock sales down by two-thirds • Autocatalyst demand at an all-time high • Weaker industrial and jewellery demand • Net investment changed by over 1 million oz www.platinum.matt
Slide 24: Palladium supplies
Palladium supplies million oz 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 South Africa Russia North America Others www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 25: Palladium supplies
Palladium supplies ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change South Africa 2,560 2,330 (9.0) Russia primary 2,705 2,630 (2.8) Russia stocks 775 250 (67.7) North America 900 905 0.6 Zimbabwe 265 265 0.0 Others 155 165 6.5 Total 7,360 6,545 (11.1) www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 26: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 6,155 6,615 7.5 Industrial 2,465 2,480 (0.6) Jewellery 595 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 27: Gross palladium autocatalyst demand
Gross palladium autocatalyst demand million oz 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe Japan North America China ROW www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 28: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 6,155 6,615 7.5 Industrial 2,465 2,365 (4.1) Jewellery 595 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 29: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 6,155 6,615 7.5 Industrial 2,465 2,365 ((4.1) Jewellery 505 445 (11.9) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 30: Gross palladium jewellery demand
Gross palladium jewellery demand million oz 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe Japan North America China ROW www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 31: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 6,155 6,615 7.5 Industrial 2,465 2,365 (4.1)(((4.1) Jewellery 505 445 (11.9) Investment (565) 470 - Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 32: Palladium ETF investment demand
Palladium ETF investment demand million oz $/oz 2.6 900 2.4 800 2.2 700 2.0 600 1.8 500 1.6 400 2011 2012 Palladium ETF holdings Palladium price www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 33: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,360 6,545 (11.1) Gross demand 8,560 9,895 15.6 Recycling (2,385) (2,280) (4.4) Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 34: Palladium recycling
Palladium recycling million oz $/oz 3.2 800 2.4 600 1.6 400 0.8 200 0.0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Pd average price www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 35: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,360 6,545 (11.1) Gross demand 8,560 9,895 15.6 Recycling (2,385) (2,280) (4.4) Net demand (6,175 7,615 23.3 Stock movement 1,185 (1,070) www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 36: Rhodium
Rhodium www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 37: Rhodium supply and demand
Rhodium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 765 722 (5.6) Gross demand 908 966 6.4 Recycling (277) (259) (6.5) Net demand (631 707 12.0 Stock movement 134 15 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 38: Outlook
Outlook www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 39: Platinum outlook
Platinum outlook • Primary supply may be a little higher this year • Gross autocatalyst demand unlikely to grow in 2013 • Jewellery demand not quite as strong as last year • Industrial demand expected to rebound • Autocatalyst recycling is likely to increase • Market balance sensitive to investment
Slide 40: Platinum price forecast: the next six months
Platinum price forecast: the next six months $/oz 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 High: $1,710 1,600 Avg: $1,570 1,500 1,400 Low: $1,415 1,300 1,200 2011 2012 2013 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 41: Palladium outlook
Palladium outlook • Supplies are likely to fall again in 2013 • Russian state stock sales to diminish further • Autocat demand to grow with higher vehicle output • Industrial demand to be no more than stable • Market undersupply to persist, supports investment www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 42: Palladium price forecast: the next six months
Palladium price forecast: the next six months $/oz 1,000 900 High: $830 800 Avg: $740 700 Low: $635 600 500 400 2011 2012 2013 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 43: #Platinum2013
#Platinum2013 www.platinum.matthey.com e