Telenor Asa · OSL:TEL
Telenor Asa — Telenor Asa Ord — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
39 slides from Telenor Asa's earnings presentation, Oct 30, 2024
Slide 1: Telenor Q3 Results
Telenor Q3 Results CEO Sigve Brekke CFO Kasper Wold Kaarbø (acting) 30.10.2024 telenor group
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer The following presentation deck is being made only to, and is only directed at, This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant the Telenor Group’s growth initiatives, profit figures, o
Slide 3: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024 3
Slide 4: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024 4
Slide 5: Third quarter highlights
Third quarter highlights Continued growth in Asia: True on track, Free cash flow before Improved 2024 the Nordics; headwinds in M&A of NOK 2.8 bn outlook EBITDA growth of 5% Grameenphone Q3 2024 5
Slide 6: Sustained momentum in the Nordics
Sustained momentum in the Nordics 2022 – CMD message: • Low-to-mid single-digit SR growth • Mid-single-digit EBITDA growth 2024 - Q3 • Monetising strong networks and VAS • 4% MSR growth, net subscriber growth • 5% EBITDA growth Preparing for 2025 and beyond • Sustaining growth in lower-inflation con
Slide 7: Temporary macro setback in Bangladesh
Temporary macro setback in Bangladesh July/August Socio-political disruption led to significant macro-economic deterioration September/October • Increased stability • Some early signs of economic activity picking up Mitigating actions • Product and marketing optimization • Strict capital discipline
Slide 8: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024 8
Slide 9: Q3 2024: Group Financial Highlights
Q3 2024: Group Financial Highlights Service revenue growth EBITDA growth Capex/sales Free cash flow before M&A 2.1% 1.8% 14.1% NOK 2.8 bn 9 Q3 2024
Slide 10: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024 10
Slide 11: Nordics: Continued growth in line with outlook
Nordics: Continued growth in line with outlook Service revenues, Nordics Positive mobile net additions across Service revenues, YOY% Q3 percentage-point contribution to YoY % -growth Nordics Service revenues, YOY% - excl. reversals Service revenues, NOKm 10,789 11,086 10,957 11,158 11,391 10 4 Norwa
Slide 12: Nordics' EBITDA growth showing operating leverage across business units
Nordics’ EBITDA growth showing operating leverage across business units EBITDA, Nordics EBITDA, YOY% EBITDA, YOY% - excl. reversals, flat energy cost Q3 percentage-point contribution to YOY %-growth EBITDA, NOKm 6 6,515 6,113 5,948 5,644 5,862 5 4.6% 0 .1 4 1.3 7.8% 8.3% 0 .3 3 1.0 5.1% 4.2% 4.6% 2
Slide 13: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024 13
Slide 14: Asia: Impact from Bangladesh partly offset by growth in Pakistan
Asia: Impact from Bangladesh partly offset by growth in Pakistan Grameenphone: Macro Service revenues: EBITDA: challenges impacting financial results (NOKm and YOY%) -1.2% -3.0% 4,621 True: Successful post- 4,333 merger execution -> 882 933 Strengthened confidence 2,825 on 2025 dividends 2,592 Telen
Slide 15: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024
Slide 16: Group service revenue growth muted by macro contraction in Bangladesh
Group service revenue growth muted by macro contraction in Bangladesh Group service revenues Service revenues, YOY% Q3 percentage-point contribution to YOY %-growth Service revenues , YOY% - excl. reversals Service revenues, NOKm 10 4 15,796 16,116 15,773 16,320 16,162 8 3 5.6% 6 2.1% 4.9% 0.3 0.0 4
Slide 17: Opex driven by phasing of sales & marketing expense
Opex driven by phasing of sales & marketing expense Organic opex, Group Opex YoY-change by category (NOK million and YoY%) (NOK million and %) <blank> +2.0% Salaries and -18 -1% Personnel 31 -34 6,439 -3 Operation and -2% 76 -20 Maintenance 6,315 55 Sales, Marketing, 111 9% and Commission Energy* -1
Slide 18: Group EBITDA growth driven by Nordics
Group EBITDA growth driven by Nordics EBITDA, Group EBITDA, YOY% Q3 Percentage-point contribution to YOY %-growth EBITDA, YOY% - excl. reversals, flat energy cost EBITDA, NOKm 3.5 9,251 9,206 10 3.0 8,505 8,790 8,467 0.9 8 2.5 6.9% 0.1 5.9% 2.0 1.8% 4.1% 6 0.8 6.6% 4.3% 3.1 0.4 1.5 4 1.0 1.5% 3.9% 3
Slide 19: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024
Slide 20: P&L: stable EBITDA; growth in EPS driven by True effect
P&L: stable EBITDA; growth in EPS driven by True effect in financial items NOK million Q3 2023 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Q3 2024 EBITDA before other income and other expenses 9,251 9,206 Other income and expenses -148 -116 EBITDA reported 9,103 9,090 Depreciation and amortisation -4,116 -4,212 Impairment loss
Slide 21: Free cash flow of 2.8 bn supported by EBITDA and timing effects in Nordics
Free cash flow of 2.8 bn supported by EBITDA and timing effects in Nordics Q3 free cash flow, with drivers (NOK million) Seasonally low in Q1 & Phasing from Dividends from Significantly higher capex Mainly GP, plus Telenor Fiber Q3, high in Q2 and Q4 previous quarter CelcomDigi expected in Q4 (~150m
Slide 22: Balance sheet remains strong
Balance sheet remains strong Leverage ratio and NIBD (NOK bn) Macro and seasonality factors Short-term considerations 140 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 Target Macroeconomic uncertainty Uncertain speed of recovery 120 leverage in Bangladesh 2.0 1.8x-2.3x 100 1.5 End-of-quarter EUR/NOK swing 80 FX volatilit
Slide 23: Contents
Contents Group highlights CEO Nordic Asia Group Financial highlights Nordics Asia CFO Group-level trends P&L, cash flow and leverage Outlook CEO Concluding remarks Q3 2024
Slide 24: Updated outlook for 2024
Updated outlook for 2024 Mid-term ambition TELENOR NORDICS Q3 2024 YTD 2024 Previous 2024 Updated 2023-2025 Organic service revenues Low-to-mid Low-to-mid growth 3.2% 4.1% 3-4% single-digit single-digit Mid Mid Organic EBITDA growth 4.6% 5.6% Around 6% single-digit single-digit ~NOK 2 bn lower in Ca
Slide 25: Concluding remarks
Concluding remarks telenor group
Slide 26: Q&A
_ et _- . 1 telenor group
Slide 27: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 28: Norway
Norway Mobile subscribers (‘000) Service revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin EBITDA Margin Service revenues -1.8% 5,081 5,067 5,024 5,114 5,187 2,669 2,650 2,631 2,615 2,620 2.1% 52.8% 50.9% 50.6% 54.1% 46.4% Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Mobile ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA a
Slide 29: Sweden
Sweden Mobile subscribers (‘000) Service revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin +1.3% EBITDA Margin Service revenues 2,544 2,491 2,518 2,585 2,936 2,962 2,959 2,963 2,974 2,362 3.4% 35.7% 39.3% 37.6% 33.1% 34.9% Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Mobile ARPU (SEK/month) EBITDA a
Slide 30: Finland
Finland Mobile subscribers (‘000) Service revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin +1,6% EBITDA Margin Service revenues 2.814 2.395 2.378 2.450 2.509 2.769 2.758 2.762 2.788 2.295 5.9% 38,3% 39,1% 37,9% 39,9% 33,4% Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Mobile ARPU (EUR/month) EBITDA
Slide 31: Denmark
Denmark Mobile subscribers (‘000) Service revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin -0,4% EBITDA Margin Service revenues 1.689 1.690 1.674 1.666 1.682 1.076 1.099 1.086 1.099 1.132 2.1% 29,6% 32,6% 34,6% 32,9% 25,3% Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Mobile ARPU (DKK/month) EBITDA
Slide 32: Q3 2024: Nordics fixed broadband
Q3 2024: Nordics fixed broadband Total fixed broadband subscriptions (‘000) Nordic fixed service revenues, NOKm and share of total (%) FWA Fibre Cable DSL Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Finland 728 720 573 (16%) 126 125 682 666 666 695 18 23 Denmark 170 (5%) 261 281 406 426 1,948 682 666 (55%) Norway
Slide 33: Bangladesh
Bangladesh Mobile subscribers (‘000) Service revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin +3.1% EBITDA Margin Service revenues 82,022 81,967 82,978 85,276 84,564 3.739 3.759 3.823 3.572 3.400 62% 61% 61% 60% 59% -3.4% Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Mobile ARPU (BDT/month) EBITDAbo
Slide 34: Pakistan
Pakistan Mobile subscribers (‘000) Service revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin EBITDA Margin Service revenues -3.4% 882 890 894 955 933 45,383 44,369 44,659 44,438 43,857 40% 41% 41% 39% 41% 7.8% Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Mobile ARPU (PKR/month) EBITDAboi and capex (
Slide 35: Q3 growth in Service Revenues and EBITDA
Q3 growth in Service Revenues and EBITDA Service Revenues EBITDA before other items COUNTRY & COMPANY Reported Organic Reported Organic Norway 2% 2% 4% 4% Sweden 9% 3% 11% 5% Denmark 5% 2% 7% 4% Finland 9% 6% 10% 7% Nordic adj 6% 3% 7% 5% Grameenphone -9% -3% -14% -9% Pakistan 6% 8% 7% 9% Asia adj -
Slide 36: Debt maturity profile (NOK bn)
Debt maturity profile (NOK bn) 43.1 2.9 0.2 11.7 7.0 7.6 5.9 7.6 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029-> Subsidiaries Telenor ASA Q3 2024 36
Slide 37: Net debt reconciliation
Net debt reconciliation NOK bn Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Non–current interest-bearing liabilities 68.9 72.3 Non-current lease liabilities 13.6 13.6 Current interest-bearing liabilities 18.4 5.7 Current lease liabilities 3.9 4.3 Cash and cash equivalents (16.7) (9.7) Fair value hedge instruments 0.0 (0.0) Fina
Slide 38: Additional information on net interest-bearing debt and partly owned companies
Additional information on net interest-bearing debt* and partly owned companies QoQ FX impact on net debt, NOKb Net debt* in partly-owned subsidiaries: Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 -2.3 (NIBD decrease) +2.4 (NIBD increase) Grameenphone 3.6 2.6 Ownership in listed associated companies Direct and i
Slide 39: Return on capital employed, LTM
Return on capital employed, LTM 17% 16% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 8% 8% 8% 2012 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 Q3 2024 Note: See APM section in quarterly report for ROCE calculation and definition. 2012-2019 numbers including Myanmar Results before 2019