Grupo Supervielle Sa Class B · BCBA:SUPV
Grupo Supervielle Sa Class B — Investor Day (March 2018)
30 slides from Grupo Supervielle Sa Class B's investor day presentation, Mar 16, 2018
Slide 1: Structural Reforms in the Argentine Economy: Achievements and Pending Reforms
Structural Reforms in the Argentine Economy: Achievements and Pending Reforms
Slide 2: Achievements
Achievements • Elimination of Capital Flows Controls (“cepo”) • Agreement with “holdouts” and resolution of conflicts with other countries. • Reinsertion in international capital markets • Fiscal Amnesty • High growth in sectors benefited by “Sectorial Shock”: agriculture, energy, communications, an
Slide 3: Pending Reforms
Pending Reforms • Reduction of Primary Public Expenditures and of the Fiscal Deficit. However, there has been some improvements in the second half of 2017. • Reductions of the External Current Account deficit • Improving external competitiveness, reducing Unit Labor Costs, Regulations and the extrem
Slide 4: Recent Developments and Short Term Perspectives: Expecting Improvements in Second Half of the Year
Recent Developments and Short Term Perspectives: Expecting Improvements in Second Half of the Year
Slide 5: Economic Activity and Investment
Economic Activity and Investment
Slide 6: Recent Evolution of GDP: The Economy is Growing
Recent Evolution of GDP: The Economy is Growing Seasonally Adjusted 2004 = 100 154 152 150 148 146 144 142 140 138 apr.-15 apr.-16 apr.-17 oct.-15 oct.-16 oct.-17 jan.-15 jan.-16 jan.-17 jan.-18 jul.-15 jul.-16 jul.-17 ARGENTINA
Slide 7: Gross Fixed Investment is Leading the Recovery
Gross Fixed Investment is Leading the Recovery Y-o-y variation 20% Transport Equipment Machinery and Construction Fixed Investment Equipment 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% III-14 III-15 III-16 III-17 II-14 II-15 II-16 II-17 IV-14 IV-15 IV-16 I-14 I-15 I-16 I-17 ARGENTINA
Slide 8: Short-Term Drivers of Economic Growth
Short-Term Drivers of Economic Growth Positive Drivers Should Compensate the Effects of the Drought 2016 2017 2018 External Factors: International Prices Net Transfers with Non Residents Main Commercial Partners Domestic Factors: Fiscal Impulse Monetary and Credit Impulse Exogenous Factors: Climate
Slide 9: GDP: 2018 Outlook by Industry
GDP: 2018 Outlook by Industry Real annual variation. 2018: preliminaryprojections 2016 2017 2018p Gross Domestic Product -2.3% 2.8% 3.3% General taxes -1.2% 3.7% 5.0% VAT -3.6% 3.6% 5.5% Import taxes 4.3% 14.0% 10.0% Gross value added -2.4% 2.5% 2.8% Agriculture, forestry, and hunting -5.5% 4.5% -3.
Slide 10: Inflation: Recent Evolution and 2018 Outlook
Inflation: Recent Evolution and 2018 Outlook Sharp reduction in the first half of 2017 Stable during the last 8 months Should decline after April
Slide 11: Consumer Price Index
Y-o-y variation 10% 15% 20% 30% 35% 40% 50% 25% 45% 0% 5% Jan-05 Jan-06 Consumer Price Index Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 ARGENTINA
Slide 12: GBA - CPI: Inflation by Subindex
GBA - CPI: Inflation by Subindex Y-o-y variation Concept apr.-17 jan.-18 Milk, dairy produce and eggs 40.8% 26.5% Oils, fats and grease 70.4% 17.6% Vegetables, tubers and legumes 29.1% 34.3% Sugar, candy, chocolates, atc. 27.9% 20.5% Alcoholic bev erages 63.2% 26.7% Non alcoholic bev erages 37.1% 25
Slide 13: GBA - CPI: “Real” Public Utilities and Transport Prices
GBA - CPI: “Real” Public Utilities and Transport Prices Prices deflated by General CPI. Index 2001 = 100 120 100 80 60 40 20 Electricity, Gas, Water Transport and communications 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 ARGENTINA
Slide 14: Impact on Prices of 2018 Fare Increases
Impact on Prices of 2018 Fare Increases BCRA projections ene.-18 feb.-18 mar.-18 abr.-18 may.-18 jun.-18 1er Sem. 2018 Agua Water 20% 20% Electricidad Electricity 16% 16% Gas Natural Gas 25% 25% Colectivo Bus 1% 8% 1% 6% 1% 6% 25% Ferrocarril Train 3% 5% 4% 12% Subte Subway -6% 21% 6% 21% ARGENTINA
Slide 15: Fiscal Accounts and Financial Needs
Fiscal Accounts and Financial Needs Significant improvements since the middle of 2017 Figures are distorted by “Tax Amnesty” Recent measures should facilitate achieving 2018/19 targets The government has enough liquidity to cover the financial needs of the next few months
Slide 16: Recent Developments
Recent Developments • The 2017 Primary Fiscal Result (- 3,9% of GDP) was better than targeted (-4,2%) • These accounts deteriorated during the first semester of 2017, but improved significantly during the second semester. • The magnitude of this improvement is larger that the one showed by the offic
Slide 17: Fiscal Evolution
Fiscal Evolution Deflated by General CPI. Y-o-y variation 25% Net Income Current Primary Expenditures 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% may.-17 dec.-17 aug.-17 mar.-17 nov.-17 sep.-17 apr.-17 feb.-17 oct.-17 jan.-17 jan.-18 jun.-17 jul.-17 ARGENTINA
Slide 18: External Sector: The Worst Might Be Over
External Sector: The Worst Might Be Over
Slide 19: Current Account, Private and Public Savings
Current Account, Private and Public Savings % of GDP, 4-quarter moving accumulated 10% Current Account Public Saving Private Saving (excluding fiscal amnesty) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% IV-94 IV-97 IV-00 IV-03 IV-06 IV-09 IV-12 IV-15 III-17 III-95 III-98 III-01 III-04 III-07 III-10 III-13 I
Slide 20: Automotive Industry: Trade Balance with Brazil
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 10,000 dec.-12 feb.-13 apr.-13 jun.-13 aug.-13 Exports oct.-13 dec.-13 Million dollars, 12-month moving average feb.-14 apr.-14 jun.-14 aug.-14 oct.-14 dec.-14 Imports feb.-15 apr.-15 jun.-15 aug.-15 Automotive Industry: Trade Balance with Brazil oct.-1
Slide 21: Brazil: Current Account, Private and Public Savings
Brazil: Current Account, Private and Public Savings 4-quarter moving accumulated, % of GDP 10% Current Account Private Balance Public Balance 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% IV-17 I-12 I-98 I-99 I-00 I-01 I-02 I-03 I-04 I-05 I-06 I-07 I-08 I-09 I-10 I-11 I-13 I-14 I-15 I-16 I-17 BRAZIL
Slide 22: Hydrocarbons: Resources and Production
Hydrocarbons: Resources and Production Billion dollars and million TEP USA Norway Argentina 1980 Resources Total Resources (Millions of TEP)* 10,055 888 912 Value of Resources (Bilions of Dollars) 2,798 247 254 Resources Value / GDP 97.7% 383.5% 112.0% Fossil Fuels 1980-2016 Accumulated Production (
Slide 23: Financial Sector
~~ fe) = 1S) o ”n 3 1S) i= 5 i= =
Slide 24: Latin America: Loans to Private Sector
Latin America: Loans to Private Sector Percentage of GDP. End of period 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Chile Colombia Brazil Mexico Peru Argentina ARGENTINA
Slide 25: Local Currency Credit Growth
Local Currency Credit Growth Index 31-12-16 = 100 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 Overdrafts + Discount Mortgage Pledge Individuals Others 70 may.-17 dec.-16 dec.-17 aug.-17 mar.-17 nov.-17 sep.-17 apr.-17 feb.-17 oct.-17 jan.-17 jan.-18 jun.-17 jul.-17 ARGENTINA
Slide 26: Financial Institutions Liquidity in Pesos
Financial Institutions Liquidity in Pesos Percentage of total deposits Source: BCRA Cash Net Repos Broad Liquidity LEBAC efective value Source: BCRA ARGENTINA
Slide 27: Medium Term Perspectives
Medium Term Perspectives
Slide 28: Middle Term Perspectives
Middle Term Perspectives • The economic potential of Argentina has always been recognized. Experience shows that when the political system worked efficiently and used these economic advantages properly, the results in terms of economic growth and development were outstanding. • With good policies Ar
Slide 29: Economic Growth
-10% 10% 15% 20% -5% 0% 5% Real annual variation 1900 Economic Growth 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 ARGENTINA
Slide 30: bd fi
Om bd fi oT LL ARRIAZU Macroanalistas a MAIPU 31 - PISO 17 (CLOOGACA) _—TE: (0054-11) 4894-3880 / 4394-3863 (0054-11) S217 - 4101 / S217 - 4102