Athabasca Oil Corporation · TSX:ATH
Athabasca Oil — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation
29 slides from Athabasca Oil's earnings presentation, May 7, 2025
Slide 1: Athabasca Oil Corporation Q1 2025 Results
ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION FOCUSED | EXECUTING | DELIVERING MAY 7, 2025 – Q1 2025 RESULTS
Slide 2: Our Vision & Strategy
OUR VISION & STRATEGY Low‐Decline High‐Quality Self‐Funded Growth Pristine Balance Sheet Thermal Assets with 90 Year in High‐Quality Kaybob with Net Cash Position Reserve Life Duvernay Oil Play DRIVING VALUE THROUGH PER SHARE GROWTH LIQUIDS GROWTH CFPS GROWTH SHAREHOLDER RETURNS (BOE/D) ($MM; $/SH)
Slide 3: Corporate Snapshot
CORPORATE SNAPSHOT ~38,500 BOE/D / 98% LIQUIDS / LOW BASE DECLINE ATHABASCA ASSETS CAPITALIZATION (CONSOLIDATED) THERMAL OIL THERMAL OIL Dover ~300,000 gross acres o Predictable, low decline projects West Basic Shares (ATH‐TSX) 504MM o Efficient brownfield SAGD development Hangingstone Market Cap. (
Slide 4: Q1 2025 Results
Q1 2025 RESULTS Production Cash Flow Netbacks 37,714 boe/d (98% Liquids) $130MM Adjusted Funds Flow $45/bbl Thermal Op. Netback 2025e 37,500 – 39,500 boe/d $0.25/sh FFO, 63% Y/Y growth $38/boe Duvernay Op. Netback Capital Pristine Balance Sheet 100% Return of Capital $50MM Thermal Oil $115MM Net Cas
Slide 5: 2025 Budget & Guidance
2025 BUDGET & GUIDANCE THERMAL OIL BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS 2025 GUIDANCE (US$70 WTI, US$12.50 DIFF) o Efficient capital expansion at Leismer Thermal Oil DEC (100%) Consolidated • Progressive growth to 40,000 bbl/d by end of 2027 37,500 – 39,500 boe/d Production 33,500 – 35,500 bbl/d ~4,000 boe/d o Competi
Slide 6: Robust Free Cash Flow Profile
ROBUST FREE CASH FLOW PROFILE BUSINESS OUTLOOK NET PRODUCTION (BOE/D)1 80,000 Thermal Oil 200 o Thermal Oil assets with low base decline Duvernay Energy Production per share (RHS) • Leismer brownfield growth to 40,000 bbl/d 60,000 150 13% CAGR o Duvernay Energy enhances growth >20% per share CAGR •
Slide 7: Tariffs & Risk Management
TARIFFS & RISK MANAGEMENT ATHABASCA’S UNIQUE POSITIONING PRISTINE BALANCE SHEET $133MM Credit Availability o All production exempt from US tariffs ~0.5x Total Debt to Thermal • USMCA compliant production Funds Flow @ US$60 WTI $305MM Cash C$200MM o Pristine Balance Sheet 2029 Unsecured Notes • $115M
Slide 8: Thermal Oil – Asset Overview
THERMAL OIL – ASSET OVERVIEW
Slide 9: Thermal Oil Division
THERMAL OIL DIVISION PREDICTABLE, LOW DECLINE HIGHLIGHTS THERMAL PROPERTIES 2025e Production 33,500 ‐ 35,500 bbl/d 100% Working Interest Fort McMurray 2025e Capital ~$250MM Expenditures AOC Hangingstone ~US$32 WTI Operating 2025e Capital ~US$48 WTI Growth Break‐Evens Enbridge Sustaining Capital Chee
Slide 10: Leismer – Overview
LEISMER – OVERVIEW TOP TIER OIL SANDS PROJECT DEVELOPMENT MAP Pad 11S o Long reserve life; ~70 year current Reserve Life Index 4 well pairs (spud H2) • 694MMbbl 2P reserves; 468MMbbl Best Est. Contingent Resource • ~50 year 2P RLI at 40,000 bbl/d o Excellent reservoir underpins low corporate decline
Slide 11: Leismer – 40,000 bbl/d Progressive Expansion
LEISMER – 40,000 BBL/D PROGRESSIVE EXPANSION SANCTION JULY 2024 HISTORICAL PRODUCTION & GROWTH OUTLOOK (BBL/D) 40,000 Project Cost ~$300MM Incremental Rate 12,000 bbl/d 30,000 Capital Efficiency ~$25,000/bbl 20,000 McDaniel 2P NPV10 $3.7 billion1 10,000 COMPLETED Regulatory approval 40,000 bbl/d ‐
Slide 12: Hangingstone – Overview
HANGINGSTONE – OVERVIEW DEVELOPMENT MAP PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS o Current production 8,900 bbl/d (April 2025) o Long reserve life; ~60 year Reserve Life Index • 163MMbbl 2P reserves; $959MM McDaniels 2P NPV10 o Improved SOR due to the field wide NCG co‐injection • 3.4x average in 2024 2025 ACTIVITY (~$15
Slide 13: Corner – Overview
CORNER – OVERVIEW DEVELOPMENT MAP TOP TIER OIL SANDS PROJECT o Large De‐risked Asset CPF Development Area Lease Boundary • 351MMbbl 2P & 520MMbbl Contingent Resource (Best Est.) • 304 delineation wells with ~80% 3D seismic coverage o High Quality Reservoir • Up to ~45m of pay in initial development
Slide 14: Duvernay Energy Corporation
DUVERNAY ENERGY CORPORATION
Slide 15: Duvernay Energy – Corporate Snapshot
DUVERNAY ENERGY – CORPORATE SNAPSHOT PRIVATE COMPANY DEC ASSETS o Athabasca operated; Cenovus 30% equity owner o Unparalleled exposure to Kaybob Duvernay oil window Halo Energy GMT Exploration ASSET HIGHLIGHTS Hitic Energy o ~200,000 gross acres; ~444 gross well locations Veren • ~46,000 acres 100%
Slide 16: Duvernay Energy – Kaybob Activity Map
DUVERNAY ENERGY – KAYBOB ACTIVITY MAP CNRL Cygnet GMT Oil Halo Hitic Window Kiwetinohk Paramount PetroChina Veren Liquids Rich Whitecap Gas Window DEC 30% JV ASSETS Duvernay Hz Wells 2024 Duv. spuds DEC 100% NEW OPERATED ASSETS 2023 Duv. Spuds DEC 2024 Multi‐well pads DEC 2025 Multi‐well pads ATHABA
Slide 17: Duvernay Energy – Development Plans
DUVERNAY ENERGY – DEVELOPMENT PLANS KAYBOB EAST ILLUSTRATIVE ECONOMICS 2025 ACTIVITY (~$75MM CAPITAL) 4,000M LATERAL & 1,500 LB/FT (US$70 WTI) o 100% working interest operated activity 2‐WELL 4+ MULTI PAD WELL PAD • Complete three‐well pad early Fall; on‐stream Q4 Capital (DCET) per well $MM $14 $10
Slide 18: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 19: Management Team
MANAGEMENT TEAM o President and Chief Executive Officer since 2015; 12 Years at Athabasca Rob Broen, P.Eng. o Over 30 years of exploration and production experience including 18 years with Talisman Energy with roles as President & Chief Executive President, Talisman Energy USA Inc. and Senior Vice P
Slide 20: Differentiated Long-Life Reserves
DIFFERENTIATED LONG-LIFE RESERVES 2024 RESERVE & RESOURCE OVERVIEW 2P RESERVES BY ASSET (MMBOE) o Deep resource inventory 73 • ~1.3 billion boe 2P reserves; ~90 year reserve life 351 • ~1 billion bbl contingent resource o Significant intrinsic value; $6.4 billion 2P NPV10 • PDP: $3.54/sh (up 14% Y/Y
Slide 21: Capitalization & Hedging
CAPITALIZATION & HEDGING LONG‐TERM DEBT CONSOLIDATED CAPITAL STRUCTURE o C$200MM 2029 Unsecured Notes • Issued August 2024; 5‐year term to 2029 • 6.75% coupon ~$2,500MM Market Cap STRONG LIQUIDITY ($5/share) o AOC Liquidity of ~$372MM, including $289MM cash $16MM DEC Cash o DEC Liquidity of ~$66MM,
Slide 22: Market Access
MARKET ACCESS HIGHLIGHTS o Positive structural changes for Canadian heavy oil • Trans Mountain Expansion (+590 mbbl/d) o Diversified long‐term market access • Enbridge Express system access to Midwest PADD II (10,000 bbl/d commencing in April) • Keystone access to US Gulf Coast (3,300 bbl/d currentl
Slide 23: Valuable Tax Pools
VALUABLE TAX POOLS TAX POOL SUMMARY (Q1 2025) ILLUSTRATIVE TAX POOL VALUATION (NPV10) $250MM annual deduction ~$260MM ~$0.50/sh $500MM annual deduction ~$360MM ~$0.70/sh ~$2.2B $750MM annual deduction ~$395MM ~$0.75/sh Fully Maximized ~$430MM ~$0.80/sh ~$1.7B Tax pool valuations as at March 31, 2025
Slide 24: Thermal Oil – Crown Royalty Advantage
THERMAL OIL – CROWN ROYALTY ADVANTAGE CROWN ROYALTY OVERVIEW OIL SANDS ROYALTY RATES o Royalty structure depends on whether a project is in 25‐40% Royalty on Gross Revenue less Opex & Capex pre‐payout or post‐payout phase o Pre‐payout advantage designed to support the recovery of the initial investm
Slide 25: Duvernay Energy – Infrastructure
DUVERNAY ENERGY – INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE ADVANTAGE o Significant owned and operated infrastructure o Underutilized capacity with flexibility for future expansions o Oil infrastructure directly connected to the Pembina Peace liquids system o Gas infrastructure dually connected to Pembina Gas I
Slide 26: Kaybob Duvernay >1,000 Industry Wells
KAYBOB DUVERNAY >1,000 INDUSTRY WELLS 2010‐2014 HISTORICAL SPUDS BY OPERATOR ~240 WELLS 150 Veren CNRL 125 Kiwetinohk & PetroChina Whitecap Paramount 100 Hitic Cygnet 75 DEC/Murphy 2015‐16 50 ~500 WELLS CTD 25 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2017‐18 ~750 WELLS CTD
Slide 27: Reader Advisory
READER ADVISORY Forward Looking Statements This Presentation contains forward‐looking information that involves various risks, uncertainties and other factors. Within this Reader Advisory and Forward Looking Statements, references to the “Company” means Athabasca and Duvernay Energy, as and where ap
Slide 28: Reader Advisory Cont'd
READER ADVISORY CONT’D Initial Production Rates Test Results and Initial Production Rates: The well test results and initial production rates provided herein should be considered to be preliminary, except as otherwise indicated. Test results and initial production rates disclosed herein may not nece
Slide 29: Reader Advisory Cont'd
READER ADVISORY CONT’D Sustaining Capital is management’s assumption of the required capital to maintain the Company’s production base. Net Cash is defined as the face value of term debt, plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities, plus current portion of provisions and other liabilities plus inc