Alcoa Corporation · NYSE:AA

Alcoa — Q3 2014 Earnings Presentation

55 slides from Alcoa's earnings presentation, Oct 14, 2014

  1. Slide 1: 3rd Quarter Earnings Conference

    Exhibit 99.2 [Alcoa logo] 3 rd Quarter Earnings Conference October 8, 2014 1

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary Statement

    Cautionary Statement Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,”

  3. Slide 3: Transformation Delivering Results; All Segments Improve Sequentially

    Transformation Delivering Results; All Segments Improve Sequentially 3Q 2014 Overview Strong Earnings Increase: – Downstream: Highest Ever quarterly ATOI, EBITDA %; Delivering Strong $209 million and 23.5% Operational – Midstream: ATOI up 45% year-over-year – Upstream: Improved Performance – 12 Cons

  4. Slide 4: William Oplinger

    [Alcoa logo] William Oplinger Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer October 8, 2014 4

  5. Slide 5: Income Statement Summary

    Income Statement Summary Prior Year Sequential $ Millions, except aluminum prices and per-share amounts 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 Change Change Realized Aluminum Price ($/MT) $2,180 $2,291 $2,538 $358 $247 Revenue $5,765 $5,836 $6,239 $474 $403 Cost of Goods Sold $4,798 $4,765 $4,904 $106 $139 COGS % Revenue 8

  6. Slide 6: Special Items

    Special Items Income Statement $ Millions, except per-share amounts 2Q14 3Q14 Segment Classification Net Income $138 $149 Net Income Per Diluted Share $0.12 $0.12 Restructuring and Other Corporate / Primary Restructuring-Related1 ($54) ($202) Charges/COGS Metals Tax Items ($2) $0 Income Taxes Corpor

  7. Slide 7: Market tailwinds and productivity drive sequential improvement

    Market tailwinds and productivity drive sequential improvement Net Income excluding Special Items ($ Millions) 11 22 2 2 11 370 22 3 111 216 2Q 14 LME Currency Volume Price Productivity Energy Raw Cost 3Q 14 / Mix Materials Increases / Other Market Performance Cost Headwinds/Other +$133 +$36 -$15 Se

  8. Slide 8: Earnings more than triple year-over-year on productivity and pricing

    Earnings more than triple year-over-year on productivity and pricing Net Income excluding Special Items ($ Millions) 18 12 125 183 370 53 11 17 81 120 3Q 13 LME Currency Volume Price Productivity Energy Raw Cost 3Q 14 / Mix Materials Increases / Other Market Performance Cost Headwinds/Other +$92 +$2

  9. Slide 9: Record quarter ATOI, EBITDA % for Engineered Products and Solutions

    Record quarter ATOI, EBITDA % for Engineered Products and Solutions 3Q14 Actual and 4Q14 Outlook – Engineered Products and Solutions 3 rd Quarter Results 3 rd Quarter Business Highlights Revenue up 4% year-over-year driven by strong share gains across major 3Q 13 2Q 14 3Q 14 markets Best ever quarte

  10. Slide 10: GRP: metal price and cost control overcome volume, price declines

    GRP: metal price and cost control overcome volume, price declines 3Q14 Actual and 4Q14 Outlook – Global Rolled Products 3 rd Quarter Results 3 rd Quarter Business Highlights 3Q 13 2Q 14 3Q 14 Rising metal prices benefitted results rd 3 Party Revenue ($ Millions) 1,805 1,860 1,926 Record Auto sheet p

  11. Slide 11: Alumina earnings up sharply on higher production and pricing

    Alumina earnings up sharply on higher production and pricing 3Q14 Actual and 4Q14 Outlook – Alumina 3 rd Quarter Results 3 rd Quarter Business Highlights 3Q 13 2Q 14 3Q 14 Production and shipments increased due to stable operations across the system and Pt. Comfort recovery after 2Q interruption Pro

  12. Slide 12: Primary earnings more than double on improved performance, pricing

    Primary earnings more than double on improved performance, pricing 3Q14 Actual and 4Q14 Outlook – Primary Metals 3 rd Quarter Results 3 rd Quarter Business Highlights 3Q 13 2Q 14 3Q 14 Production down due to cessation of Pt. Henry production Production (kmt) 897 795 760 Strong performance driven by

  13. Slide 13: One day year-over-year increase in average DWC

    One day year-over-year increase in average DWC Average Days Working Capital since Third Quarter 2009 47 15 day reduction 44 42 43 since 3Q09 40 40 40 37 37 36 36 34 35 33 32 32 31 30 29 28 30 1 day increase since 3Q13 Driver Horizon Curtailments Near-term Automotive growth Mid-term 3 days 4 days 4 d

  14. Slide 14: 3rd Quarter Cash Flow Overview

    3 rd Quarter Cash Flow Overview 3Q13, 2Q14 & 3Q14 Cash Flow ($ Millions) 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 Net Income before Noncontrolling Interests $44 $129 $131 DD&A $348 $350 $346 Change in Working Capital ($61) $31 ($411) Pension Contributions ($173) ($191) ($164) Other Adjustments $56 $199 $347 Cash from Operati

  15. Slide 15: Net debt reflects acquisition financing

    Net debt reflects acquisition financing Debt, Net Debt, and Debt-to-Capital % (Millions) Cash Net Debt Debt to Cap 10,578 762 9,819 9,165 9,371 8,829 8,988 1,481 8,319 8,055 1,543 1,939 7,747 1,861 1,437 665 1,183 3,272 42.5% 9,816 38.7% 38.1% 35.0% 35.4% 37.3% 8,338 34.9% 35.3% 34.8% 7,622 7,432 6,

  16. Slide 16: On track to meet our 2014 targets

    On track to meet our 2014 targets 2014 Annual Financial Targets and Year-to-Date Results Taking the right actions Overarching 2014 Financial Target YTD: Drive Productivity Gains of $850M $862M Build Value-Add with Growth Capital of $500M $325M Positive Manage Sustaining Capital of $750M $425M Free C

  17. Slide 17: Market fundamentals remain positive

    Market fundamentals remain positive Reaffirm 7% global demand growth Alumina surplus shrinking, aluminum deficit Inventories declined 7 days in 3Q Premiums move to new record highs See appendix for full scale charts [Alcoa logo] 17

  18. Slide 18: Klaus Kleinfeld

    [Alcoa logo] Klaus Kleinfeld Chairman and Chief Executive Officer October 8, 2014 18

  19. Slide 19: Aerospace and Automotive Markets Remain Strong; Forecast Unchanged

    Aerospace and Automotive Markets Remain Strong; Forecast Unchanged Alcoa End Markets: Current Assessment of 2014 vs. 2013 End Market Growth Global and Regional Commentary Aerospace 8% to 9% Global sales growth Automotive 2% to 4% Global production growth Source: Alcoa analysis [Alcoa logo] 19 1) Int

  20. Slide 20: Global HDT Market Steady, Stronger N.A.; Packaging +2% to 3% Globally

    Global HDT Market Steady, Stronger N.A.; Packaging +2% to 3% Globally Alcoa End Markets: Current Assessment of 2014 vs. 2013 End Market Growth Global and Regional Commentary Heavy Duty • Orders Up: 3Q increased +43% YoY with continued strength YTD +32% from prior year Truck and Trailer NA • Good Ord

  21. Slide 21: Solid Commercial B&C Growth; Global Airfoil Market Down YoY

    Solid Commercial B&C Growth; Global Airfoil Market Down YoY Alcoa End Markets: Current Assessment of 2014 vs. 2013 End Market Growth Global and Regional Commentary Building and Positive Early Indicators: Construction NA • Non-Residential Contracts Awarded: +12% in September (12-month rolling average

  22. Slide 22: Transforming Alcoa – Creating Compelling Sustainable Value

    Transforming Alcoa – Creating Compelling Sustainable Value Value-Add: Profitable Growth Upstream: Reduce Cost Position Building a Lightweight Multi-Material Innovation Powerhouse Creating a Globally Competitive Commodity Business Engineered Products & Solutions Alumina Global Rolled Products Aluminu

  23. Slide 23: Flying High in Aerospace – Metallic Aircraft Here to Stay

    Flying High in Aerospace – Metallic Aircraft Here to Stay May 1, 2014 July 11, 2012 $290M Spirit 5-year contract $1.4B Airbus multi-year contract Supply aluminum sheet products Supply aluminum sheet, plate and hard alloy extruded for fuselage skins products across virtually all Airbus commercial pro

  24. Slide 24: Al-Li (R)Evolution: Growing the Footprint for Lightweight Al-Li Alloys

    Al-Li (R)Evolution: Growing the Footprint for Lightweight Al-Li Alloys Examples of Aluminum-Lithium Applications Launching into Space Propelling into Aero Structures Strong, (4-7%) lower density than Airbus A380 Better corrosion resistance 1 ; conventional aluminum 2X longer inspection intervals, co

  25. Slide 25: Unique Capabilities + Organic Investment = Al-Li Value-Add Growth

    Unique Capabilities + Organic Investment = Al-Li Value-Add Growth Summary of Alcoa Aluminum-Lithium Advantages, Growth Investment and Projected Revenues $100M sales contracted in 2017 Innovation Heavyweight in Lightweight Metals Investing in Next-Gen Aerospace: Largest Al-Li Casthouse Global leader

  26. Slide 26: Firth Rixson Acquisition On Track

    Firth Rixson Acquisition On Track Highlights of Firth Rixson Acquisition, Closing Progress and Post-Merger Preparation Portfolio Enhancing: Growing Market, High Tech Targeting 4Q Close Post-Merger Preparation 2016 Regulatory Approval Work Streams Strong Aerospace Offering $1.6B revenue $350M EBITDA

  27. Slide 27: Capturing Rebound in N.A. Building and Construction

    BCS: $1.1B Capturing Rebound in N.A. Building and Construction Revenue in 2016; 3X market growth 1 Leading Indicators of U.S. Non Res. Growth, Green Building Requirements, and Alcoa Product Portfolio Market Improving; Green Demand Growing Innovative Portfolio Drives Revenue, Performance Non-resident

  28. Slide 28: Growth For the Long Haul – Delivering Value For Our Customers

    Growth For the Long Haul – Delivering Value For Our Customers Global Commercial Vehicle Wheels Market, Customer Testimonials, Ultra ONE™ Europe Launch Al Gaining Ground in a Growing Market Customers Love Ultra ONE™, Successful N.A. Launch Global Commercial Vehicle Wheel Market ($B) and Penetration R

  29. Slide 29: Winning Alumina Formula = Market-Based Pricing + Cost Down

    Winning Alumina Formula = Market-Based Pricing + Cost Down Cost Curve Reduction Levers, API/Spot Pricing and Alumina Cost Curve Targets API/Spot Pricing Capturing Productivity Gains 1 $177M $1,742M Executing on Phase 2 in Saudi Arabia 2014 65%* $246M 2013 $286M 55%* 73% First bauxite $298M complete

  30. Slide 30: Reshaping Aluminum Portfolio + Enhancing Profitability

    Reshaping Aluminum Portfolio + Enhancing Profitability Cost Curve Reduction Levers, Value Add Product % and Global Smelting Cost Curve Targets Capturing Productivity Gains 1 Transformation $201M $1,986M since start of crisis $235M $345M Optimizing the Smelting Portfolio Total Smelting Operating Capa

  31. Slide 31: Transformation Delivers, Driving Profitability

    Transformation Delivers, Driving Profitability Expanding Multi-Material Leadership in Major Growth Markets Capturing Growth Through Innovation and Smart Investments Creating a Globally Competitive Commodity Business [Alcoa logo] 31

  32. Slide 32: APPENDIX

    APPENDIX Advancing each generation. [Alcoa logo]

  33. Slide 33: Additional Information

    Additional Information Kelly Pasterick Vice President, Investor Relations Alcoa 390 Park Avenue New York, NY 10022-4608 Telephone: (212) 836-2674 www.alcoa.com [Alcoa logo] 33

  34. Slide 34: Annual Sensitivity Summary

    Annual Sensitivity Summary LME Aluminum Annual Net Income Sensitivity +/- $100/MT = +/- $240 million Currency Annual Net Income Sensitivity Australian $ +/- $11 million per 0.01 change in USD / AUD Brazilian $ +/- $ 3 million per 0.01 change in BRL / USD Euro € +/- $ 2 million per 0.01 change in USD

  35. Slide 35: Revenue Change by Market

    Revenue Change by Market Sequential Year-Over-Year 3Q’14 Third-Party Revenue Change Change 0% 2% 8% 19% 0% 1% 0% 15% (3%) 2% (17%) (12%) 8% 6% 38% 30% 17% 5% 12% 17% [Alcoa logo] 35

  36. Slide 36: Special Items

    Special Items Pre-tax, Before NCI After-tax, After NCI Income Statement $ Millions, except per-share amounts 2Q14 3Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Classification Segment Income from Continuing Operations $207 $330 $138 $149 Income Per Diluted Share $0.17 $0.27 $0.12 $0.12 Corporate / Restructuring and Restructuring-R

  37. Slide 37: Composition of Regional Premium Pricing Convention

    Composition of Regional Premium Pricing Convention [Alcoa logo] 37

  38. Slide 38: Alcoa smelting closures and curtailments

    Alcoa smelting closures and curtailments Alcoa smelting capacity closures, since Dec 2007 Alcoa current curtailed capacity Location Year kmt Location kmt Baie Comeau 2008 53 Rockdale 191 Eastalco 2010 195 Sao Luis 194 Badin 2010 60 Pocos 96 Warrick 2010 40 Intalco 49 Tennessee 2011 215 Wenatchee 41

  39. Slide 39: Composition of Upstream Production Costs

    Composition of Upstream Production Costs Refining Cost Structure Smelting Cost Structure 1) Natural gas information corresponds to Point Comfort, as Australia is priced on a rolling 16 quarter average [Alcoa logo] 39

  40. Slide 40: Reaffirm 7% global demand growth

    Reaffirm 7% global demand growth Russia 2014 Primary Aluminum Consumption (mmt), Annualized Growth (%) Brazil 2% 1.0 Other ¹ 1.1 1% 2.0 4% MENA 2.0 8% SE Asia 2.0 8% India 2.1 5% North Asia 4.2 5% 2014 demand +7% North America 6.4 5% World ex China +4% Europe 6.6 2% China 25.4 10% 52.8 mmt 1 Other i

  41. Slide 41: Alumina surplus shrinking, aluminum deficit

    Alumina surplus shrinking, aluminum deficit Supply/Demand Analysis 2014E Alumina Supply/Demand Balance 2014E Aluminum Supply/Demand Balance 2Q14 2Q14 SURPLUS Surplus DEFICIT Deficit 824 389 (671) (930) ’000 mt China Rest of World ’000 mt China Rest of World 2014 Production 44,729 55,186 2014 Product

  42. Slide 42: Inventories declined 7 days in 3Q

    Inventories declined 7 days in 3Q Global Inventories vs. LME Price Over Time $ Source: Alcoa estimates, IAI, LME, Marubeni, Shanghai Metal Exchange [Alcoa logo] 42

  43. Slide 43: Premiums move to record highs

    Premiums move to record highs $ per metric Regional Premiums over time $ per metric ton ton Region End of 3Q 14 Europe $490/MT Japan $420/MT Midwest USA $488/MT Average 3Q 14 vs. 3Q 13 Europe 76% Japan 62% Midwest USA 87% Source: Monthly average of daily prices - Platts Metals Week [Alcoa logo] 43

  44. Slide 44: Reconciliation of ATOI to Consolidated Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Alcoa

    Reconciliation of ATOI to Consolidated Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Alcoa (in millions) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Total segment ATOI $351 $304 $338 $224 $1,217 $325 $418 $619 Unallocated amounts (net of tax): Impact of LIFO (2) 5 9 40 52 (7) (8) (18) Interest expense (75) (76) (70

  45. Slide 45: Reconciliation of Adjusted Income

    Reconciliation of Adjusted Income (in millions, except per- Income Diluted EPS share amounts) Quarter ended Quarter ended September 30, June 30, September 30, September 30, June 30, September 30, 2013 2014 2014 2013 2014 2014 Net income attributable to Alcoa $24 $138 $149 $0.02 $0.12 $0.12 Restructu

  46. Slide 46: Reconciliation of Alcoa Adjusted EBITDA

    Reconciliation of Alcoa Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa $938 $1,310 $1,233 $2,248 $2,564 $(74) $(1,151) $254 $611 $191 $(2,285) $24 $138 $149 Add: Net income (loss) attributable to noncontro

  47. Slide 47: Reconciliation of Alumina Adjusted EBITDA

    Reconciliation of Alumina Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions, except per metric ton amounts) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 After-tax operating income (ATOI) $415 $632 $682 $1,050 $956 $727 $112 $301 $607 $90 $259 $67 $38 $62 Add: Depreciation, depletion, and amort

  48. Slide 48: Reconciliation of Primary Metals Adjusted EBITDA

    Reconciliation of Primary Metals Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions, except per metric ton amounts) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 After-tax operating income (ATOI) $657 $808 $822 $1,760 $1,445 $931 $(612) $488 $481 $309 $(20) $8 $97 $245 Add: Depreciation, depleti

  49. Slide 49: Reconciliation of Global Rolled Products Adjusted EBITDA

    Reconciliation of Global Rolled Products Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions, except per metric ton amounts) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 After-tax operating income (ATOI) $232 $223 $232 $290 $300 $317 $151 $(41) $(106) $241 $260 $346 $252 $71 $79 $103 A

  50. Slide 50: Reconciliation of Engineered Products and Solutions Adjusted EBITDA

    Reconciliation of Engineered Products and Solutions Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 After-tax operating income (ATOI) $126 $161 $276 $382 $423 $522 $311 $419 $537 $612 $726 $192 $204 $209 Add: Depreciation, depletion, and amortiza

  51. Slide 51: Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow

    Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow Quarter ended (in millions) 31-Dec-11 31-Mar-12 30-Jun-12 30-Sep-12 31-Dec-12 31-Mar-13 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14 30-Jun-14 30-Sep-14 Cash from $1,142 $(236) $537 $263 $933 $(70) $514 $214 $920 $(551) $518 $249 operations Capital expenditures (486) (270

  52. Slide 52: Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow, continued

    Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow, continued Quarter ended (in millions) 31-Dec-08 31-Mar-09 30-Jun-09 30-Sep-09 31-Dec-09 31-Mar-10 30-Jun-10 30-Sep-10 31-Dec-10 31-Mar-11 30-Jun-11 30-Sep-11 Cash from $608 $(271) $328 $184 $1,124 $199 $300 $392 $1,370 $(236) $798 $489 operations Capital (1,017) (47

  53. Slide 53: Days Working Capital

    Days Working Capital ($ in millions) Quarter ended 31-Mar-12 30-Jun-12 30-Sep-12 31-Dec-12 31-Mar-13 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14 30-Jun-14 30-Sep-14 Receivables from customers, less allowances $1,709 $1,650 $1,600 $1,573 $1,704 $1,483 $1,427 $1,383 $1,391 $1,401 $1,526 Add: Deferred purc

  54. Slide 54: Reconciliation of Net Debt

    Reconciliation of Net Debt (in millions) December 31, March 31, June 30, September 30, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2014 Short-term borrowings $478 $176 $92 $62 $53 $57 $53 $133 $57 Commercial paper 1,535 – – 224 – – – 223 99 Long-term debt due within one year 56 669 231 445 465 655 85 87

  55. Slide 55: Reconciliation of Net Debt-to-Capital

    Reconciliation of Net Debt-to-Capital ($ in millions) June 30, 2014 September 30, 2014 Cash and Cash Cash and Cash Debt-to-Capital Equivalents Net Debt-to-Capital Debt-to-Capital Equivalents Net Debt-to-Capital Total Debt Short-term borrowings $133 $57 Commercial paper 223 99 Long-term debt due with

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