AES Indiana — Investor Presentation (January 2022)
120 slides from AES Indiana's investor presentation, Jan 24, 2022
Slide 1: 2022 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Public Advisory Meeting #1
1 2022 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Public Advisory Meeting #1 1/24/2022
Slide 2: Agenda and Introductions
Agenda and Introductions Stewart Ramsey, Managing Executive, Vanry & Associates 2 2022 IRP
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda Time Topic Speakers Morning Chad Rogers, Senior Manager, Regulatory Affairs, AES Indiana Safety and Virtual Meeting Schedule and Protocols Starting at 10:00 AM Brandi Davis-Handy, Chief Public Relations Officer, AES US Utilities Welcome and Overview of AES Indiana Kristina Lund, President & C
Slide 4: IRP Team Introductions
IRP Team Introductions AES Leadership Team AES Legal Team Aaron Cooper, Chief Commercial Officer, AES US Utilities Nick Grimmer, Indiana Regulatory Counsel, AES Indiana Brandi Davis-Handy, Chief Public Relations Officer, AES US Utilities Teresa Morton Nyhart, Counsel, Barnes & Thornburg LLP Kristina
Slide 5: Safety and Virtual Meeting Protocols
Safety and Virtual Meeting Protocols Chad Rogers, Senior Manager, Regulatory Affairs, AES Indiana Brandi Davis-Handy, Chief Public Relations Officer, AES US Utilities 5 2022 IRP
Slide 6: AES Purpose & Values
AES Purpose & Values Safety first Accelerating the future of energy, Highest standards together. All together 6 2022 IRP
Slide 7: Make your virtual environment safer
Make your virtual environment safer 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Secure Your Think before you Know Your Protect your Share Data Be Safe by Being Accounts Use click on a link, file, Network Protect Device Patch your Responsibly Prepared Know unique, complex or attachment on your home devices regularly Control y
Slide 8: Virtual Meeting Best Practices
Virtual Meeting Best Practices Questions Audio → Your candid feedback and input is an → All lines are muted upon entry. integral part to the IRP process. → For those using audio via Teams, → Questions or feedback will be taken at the you can unmute by selecting the end of each section. microphone ic
Slide 9: Public Advisory Meeting Topics
Public Advisory Meeting Topics Public Advisory Meeting #1 Public Advisory Meeting #2 Public Advisory Meeting #3 Public Advisory Meeting #4 Public Advisory Meeting #5 Public Public Public Public Public Advisory Advisory Advisory Advisory Advisory Meeting #1 Meeting #2 Meeting #3 Meeting #4 Meeting #5
Slide 10: Welcome & Overview of AES Indiana
Welcome & Overview of AES Indiana Kristina Lund, President & CEO, AES US Utilities 10
Slide 11: A Once in a Lifetime Transformation in the Energy Sector
A Once in a Lifetime Transformation in the Energy Sector 11
Slide 12: AES: a unique culture of excellence, innovation and customer-centric development
AES: a unique culture of excellence, innovation and customer-centric product development. 7x Edison Award Winner 12 2022 IRP
Slide 13: Company Overview
Company Overview 30,308 6,909 MW Gross MW in operation* Renewable generation under construction or with signed PPAs $9.78 billion $34.6 billion Total 2020 revenues Total assets owned & managed 4 Continents 14 Countries 2.5 million Recognized for our commitment to sustainability Customers served Mark
Slide 14: AES Indiana overview and generation
→ MISO Member → 528 square miles → Serves downtown Indianapolis and 8 counties in Indiana → Serves > 500,000 regulated customers → 3,643 MW of Generation • 1,464 MW Coal* • 38 MW Oil • 1,745 MW Gas • 300 MW Wind • 96 MW Solar → Retiring Pete 1 & 2 – 630 MW of coal – and replacing with solar and stor
Slide 15: Leading the inclusive, clean energy transition
Leading the inclusive, clean energy transition Workforce of the Customer Smart Grid Sustainability Future Reliability. Affordability. Diverse needs. Use new technologies across our value Maintain reliability and affordability Work differently, using new technologies chain to create the resilient gri
Slide 16: IRP & Planning Model Overview
IRP & Planning Model Overview Erik Miller, Manager, Resource Planning, AES Indiana Will Vance, Senior Analyst, AES Indiana 16 2022 IRP
Slide 17: What is an Integrated Resource Plan?
What is an Integrated Resource Plan? Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in Indiana –> 170 IAC 4-7-2 → 20-year look at how AES Indiana will serve load → Submitted every three years → Plan created with stakeholder input → Modeling and analysis culminates in a preferred resource portfolio and a short-term
Slide 18: Updated 2022 IRP Timeline
Updated 2022 IRP Timeline File IRP no later than Nov. 1, 2022 18 2022 IRP
Slide 19: Public Advisory Schedule
Public Advisory Schedule Public Advisory Public Advisory Meeting #2 - Meeting #4 - • 2022 IRP Schedule & March/April • Portfolio Matrix July/August • 2022 Modeling Progress Framework Insights • 2019 IRP Recap • DSM Modeling & • Portfolio Metrics & • Preliminary Modeling • Preferred Resource • Load,
Slide 20: IRP Process Overview
IRP Process Overview 20 2022 IRP
Slide 21: Portfolio Metrics & Scorecard
Portfolio Metrics & Scorecard Scorecard Framework in the 2019 IRP → Portfolio Metrics in the 2019 IRP included three key overarching categories: Cost, Environmental and Risk → In 2022, AES Indiana will consider additions to the scorecard, such as reliability metrics 21 2022 IRP
Slide 22: Planning Model Overview
Planning Model Overview EnCompass → Long-term Production Cost and Capacity Expansion model created by Anchor Power Solutions. → EnCompass is used by utilities, co-ops, municipalities, and consultants. It has been used to support regulatory filings in 17 states. 22 2022 IRP
Slide 23: EnCompass
EnCompass ENCOMPASS POWER PLANNING SOFTWARE →EnCompass models thermal, renewable, storage, and load resources with hourly granularity. →It will be used for capacity expansion analysis to make long-term resource decisions based on scenario input assumptions. →Based on resource selections, EnCompass w
Slide 24: EnCompass: Key Advantages
EnCompass Key Advantages of Utilizing EnCompass →Quick run times → Allows for additional scenario analysis → Provides expedient model feedback →Straightforward capacity expansion → Deterministic capacity expansion allows for more intuitive cause and effect results →User control of modeling parameter
Slide 25: 2019 IRP Recap
2019 IRP Recap Aaron Cooper, Chief Commercial Officer, AES US Utilities Erik Miller, Manager, Resource Planning, AES Indiana 25
Slide 26: 2019 IRP – Short-Term Action Plan
2019 IRP – Short-Term Action Plan 26 2022 IRP
Slide 27: Short-Term Action Plan Progress
Short-Term Action Plan Progress → December 2019 - July 2021 – AES Indiana issues & evaluates all- source RFP for approximately 200 MW of firm capacity in 2023 that will result from the anticipated retirements of Pete Units 1 & 2. → November 2020 – AES Indiana receives IURC Order for the implementati
Slide 28: Portfolio changes have reduced carbon intensity by 48% since 2015
Portfolio changes have reduced carbon intensity by 48% since 2015 28 2022 IRP
Slide 29: Hardy Hills Solar
Hardy Hills Solar Project Information → Type: Solar facility → Size: 195 MWac ICAP → COD: 2023 → Location: Clinton County, IN → Developer: Invenergy Solar Development North America, LLC Hardy Hills will contribute 98 MW to AES Indiana’s 2023 UCAP need resulting from the retirement of Petersburg Unit
Slide 30: Petersburg Energy Center
Petersburg Energy Center Project Information → Type: Solar and battery energy storage facility → Size: 250 MWac ICAP coupled with a 180 MWh DC battery energy storage system (45 MW, 4-hour discharge power capacity) → COD: 2024 → Location: Pike County, IN → Developer: NextEra Energy Resources, LLC Pet
Slide 31: IURC Director's Comments to 2019 IRP
IURC Director’s Comments to 2019 IRP Topic Comments Summary (not exhaustive) 2022 IRP Improvements → General lack of clarity around the model and methodology → AES IN will provide better explanation of the model and methodology used at stakeholder meetings and in the report. → PowerSimm’s stochastic
Slide 32: Overview of Existing Resources
Overview of Existing Resources Erik Miller, Manager, Resource Planning, AES Indiana 32 2022 IRP
Slide 33: Starting Point Portfolio
Starting Point Portfolio 33 2022 IRP
Slide 34: AES Indiana: Current Generation Mix
AES Indiana: Current Generation Mix 34 2022 IRP
Slide 35: Existing Coal Resources
Existing Coal Resources Estimated Last Coal Units Reference Name Technology ICAP (MW) UCAP (MW) In-Service Year Year In-Service Petersburg PETE ST 2 Pete 2 Coal ST 410 368 1969 2023 PETE ST 3 Pete 3 Coal ST 518 488 1977 2042 PETE ST 4 Pete 4 Coal ST 536 520 1986 2042 Total Coal: 1,464 1,376 Notes on
Slide 36: Existing Gas Resources
Existing Gas Resources Estimated Last Gas Units Reference Name Technology ICAP (MW) UCAP (MW) In-Service Year Year In-Service Eagle Valley EV CCGT Eagle Valley CCGT 671 601 2018 2055 Harding Street HS 5G Harding Street 5 Gas ST 100 93 1958 2030 HS 6G Harding Street 6 Gas ST 99 94 1961 2030 HS 7G Har
Slide 37: Existing Renewable Resources
Existing Renewable Resources In-Service Year/ Estimated Last Year Renewables Technology ICAP (MW) UCAP (MW) PPA Start In-Service/PPA End Hardy Hills Hardy Hills Solar Only 195 98 2023 TBD Petersburg Energy Center PEC Solar Solar + BESS 250 125 2024 TBD PEC BESS Solar + BESS 180 MWh 45 MW, 4-hour 202
Slide 38: Existing DSM Resources
Existing DSM Resources DEMAND RESPONSE Load Modifying Resources Summer Capacity Value (MW) Air Conditioner Load Management 46.3 Conservation Voltage Reduction 16.8 Rider 14 1.1 ENERGY EFFICIENCY → Avg annual incremental program savings of 1% per year of 2021 sales → Savings of approximately 10% of 2
Slide 39: Replacement Resource Options
Replacement Resource Options Erik Miller, Manager, Resource Planning, AES Indiana 39 2022 IRP
Slide 40: Commercially Available Replacement Resources
Commercially Available Replacement Resources 40 2022 IRP
Slide 41: Optionality for Emerging Technologies
Optionality for Emerging Technologies The energy sector is transforming, and many new generation technologies are under development that can be utilized to support AES Indiana’s commitment to achieve our customers’ goals of reliability, affordability and sustainability. These technologies include bu
Slide 42: Baseline Energy & Load Forecast
42 2022 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Baseline Energy & Load Forecast Presented by Itron
Slide 43: Introduction to the Itron Team
Introduction to the Itron Team → Itron has over 30 years of experience developing forecast models for customers worldwide. Itron’s energy forecasting group is nationally recognized for its expertise in short-term forecasting (hour-ahead and day-ahead), financial forecasting (1-3 years-ahead), and lo
Slide 44: Agenda
Agenda → Sales, Energy, and Demand Trends → Modeling Approach → Baseline Forecast 44 2022 IRP
Slide 45: Sales, Energy and Demand Trends
Sales, Energy and Demand Trends 45 2022 IRP
Slide 46: AES Indiana Customer Class Mix
AES Indiana Customer Class Mix 2019 Sales Mix (GWh) 2019 Customer Mix Commercial Industrial Industrial 58,033 191 2,889 11.51% 0.04% 22% Residential 5,219 39% Commercial 5,279 Residential 39% 445,760 88.45% AES Indiana serves over 500,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial cust
Slide 47: Historical Energy, Peak, and Customer Trends
Historical Energy, Peak, and Customer Trends Total Customers Peaks 550,000 3,300 3,100 500,000 2,900 450,000 2,700 Count 2,500 400,000 MW 2,300 Avg Annual Growth 350,000 Avg Annual Growth 2,100 Period Rate 300,000 Period Rate 1,900 2011-19 -0.9% 2011-19 0.8% 1,700 2011-21 -1.0% 250,000 2011-21 0.8%
Slide 48: Residential Customer and Sales Trends
Residential Customer and Sales Trends Residential Customers Residential Sales 500,000 5,700,000 450,000 5,200,000 4,700,000 400,000 MWh Counts 4,200,000 350,000 Avg Annual Growth Avg Annual Growth Period Rate 3,700,000 Period Rate 300,000 2011-19 0.9% 2011-19 -0.3% 2011-21 0.9% 3,200,000 2011-21 -0.
Slide 49: What's Driving Customer Growth
What’s Driving Customer Growth Strong population and household growth → Home to over 876,000 people and more than 2 million residents in the metropolitan area. Third most populous city in the Midwest behind Chicago and Columbus. Population projected to grow 26% over the next 30 years Strong regional
Slide 50: Commercial Sales and Customer Trends
Commercial Sales and Customer Trends Commercial Customers Commercial Sales 65,000 6,100,000 60,000 5,600,000 55,000 5,100,000 50,000 4,600,000 MWh Counts 45,000 Avg Annual Growth 4,100,000 Avg Annual Growth 40,000 Period Rate 3,600,000 Period Rate 2011-19 0.5% 2011-19 -0.4% 35,000 3,100,000 2011-21
Slide 51: Industrial Trends – AES's Largest Customers
Industrial Trends – AES’s Largest Customers Industrial Customers Industrial Sales 240 3,750,000 3,550,000 220 3,350,000 200 3,150,000 2,950,000 180 MWh 2,750,000 Counts Avg Annual Growth Avg Annual Growth 2,550,000 160 Period Rate Period Rate 2,350,000 2011-19 -1.6% 2011-19 -2.6% 140 2011-21 -1.6% 2
Slide 52: Who are AES's largest customers
Who are AES’s largest customers → What is classified as industrial, includes significant commercial activity → Health care → Education → Office - Management/Administrative → Distribution → The distinction between commercial and industrial activity is blurring →AES’s 10 largest customers account for
Slide 53: Street Lighting: LED Conversion Program
Street Lighting: LED Conversion Program 7,000 70% Operation Night Light is a public-private sector partnership that began in 2016 between the City of 6,000 60% Indianapolis and AES Indiana. By converting to high- efficiency LED technology, the city would see savings 5,000 50% Percent Convesion gener
Slide 54: Why is Average Use Declining?
Why is Average Use Declining ? Residential End-Use Intensity → Residential. End-use intensities have been declining across nearly 4,000 all end-uses except miscellaneous. Over the last 10 years: 3,500 EWHeat ECook → Heating down 0.5% 3,000 kWh Per Household Dish → Cooling down 0.4% 2,500 CWash 2,000
Slide 55: Significant Energy Efficiency Program Activity
Significant Energy Efficiency Program Activity Cumulative % of Sales Annual Cumulative Saving (MWh) → Energy Efficiency Programs have had a significant impact Year Res Com Ind on sales 2011 30,123 21,547 3,456 2012 66,290 49,406 7,923 → Reduce residential average use by 8% over the last ten 2013 133
Slide 56: Modeling Approach
Modeling Approach 56 2022 IRP
Slide 57: Baseline Modeling Approach
Baseline Modeling Approach → Bottom-up Modeling Approach → Estimate rate-class level sales and customer models from historical billed sales data → Sales/energy driven by households, economic forecasts, expected weather conditions, price, and end-use efficiency improvements. End-use demand drives sys
Slide 58: Residential Economic Drivers
Residential Economic Drivers Marion County Population → Moody Analytics (August 2021), economic forecast for Marion 1,150 County. 1,050 → Population projections drive the residential customer forecast. Expected population growth slightly slower than the last ten 950 years. Thousands 850 750 Avg Annu
Slide 59: C&I Economic Drivers
C&I Economic Drivers Indianapolis Non-Manufacturing Gross Regional Indianapolis Non-Manufacturing Employment Product 1,200 400,000 1,100 350,000 1,000 900 Thousands Real $ 300,000 Thousands 800 250,000 Avg Annual Avg Annual 700 Period Growth Period Growth 200,000 2010-19 1.8% 600 2010-19 2.1% 150,00
Slide 60: Residential End-Use Intensity Projections
Residential End-Use Intensity Projections →End-Use intensities based on end-use Residential Heating Class saturation and average stock efficiency 10,000 derived from EIA’ Annual Energy 9,000 Outlook (AEO) for East North Central 8,000 Census Division. Annual kWh per Customer 7,000 →Residential calibr
Slide 61: Commercial End-Use Intensity Projections
Commercial End-Use Intensity Projections →End-Use intensities (kWh per square ft) Commercial End-Use Intensity projected for 9 end-uses and 11 building 12.00 types 10.00 →Derived from EIA’ Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for East North Central Census 8.00 Division. kWh Per Sq Ft Avg. Annual Growth →Buil
Slide 62: Temperature Trends
Temperature Trends Average Temperature Increasing 0.5 degrees per decade → Average annual temperature is increasing .05 degrees per year or 0.5 degrees per decade. → Consistent with temperature trends across the country 0.4 degrees to 1.0 degrees per decade. → Minimum temperature increasing twice as
Slide 63: Trending Degree Days
Trending Degree Days Annual Cooling Degree Days (Base 65) Increasing average temperature translates into 1,800 0.3% annual growth in cooling degree days. 1,600 Annual Heating Degree Days (Base 60) 1,400 5,500 1,200 5,000 1,000 4,500 800 4,000 600 3,500 400 3,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20
Slide 64: Impact of Increasing Temperatures
Impact of Increasing Temperatures →Increasing temperatures contribute to cooling load growth in turn driving system peak demand. →0.05% annual temperature change contributes to 0.1% annual increase in baseline peak demand adding 82 MW by 2042. Avg Annual Growth 2022 + →Little change in energy requir
Slide 65: Peak Model
Peak Model Peak demand is driven by heating, cooling, and base load requirements derived from the rate class sales forecast models. 65 2022 IRP
Slide 66: Peak Model Drivers
Peak Model Drivers Avg Growth 2022+ 1.2% Avg Growth 2022+ 0.0% Avg Growth 2022+ 0.5% →Heating, cooling, and base-use energy requirements derived from sales forecast models. →Base-use energy allocated to end-use coincident peak loads. Highest load in winter – lighting load. 66 2022 IRP
Slide 67: Baseline Forecast
Baseline Forecast 67 2022 IRP
Slide 68: Baseline Class Sales Forecast
Baseline Class Sales Forecast Residential sales Commercial sales 6,500,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 MWh MWh 4,500,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 Avg Annual Growth 3,500,000 Avg Annual Growth 3,500,000 Period Rate Period Rate 3,000,000 3,000,000 2022-42 1.0% 2022
Slide 69: Energy & Peak Forecast
Energy & Peak Forecast Energy Peaks 16,500,000 3,500 15,500,000 3,300 14,500,000 3,100 13,500,000 2,900 12,500,000 2,700 MWh MW 11,500,000 2,500 10,500,000 Avg Annual Growth 2,300 Avg Annual Growth 9,500,000 Period Rate 2,100 Period Rate 8,500,000 1,900 IRP Forecast 0.6% IRP Forecast 0.7% 7,500,000
Slide 70: Electric Vehicle (EV) and Solar PV Forecasts
70 2022 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Electric Vehicle (EV) and Solar PV Forecasts Presented by IRP Partners
Slide 71: Introduction to the GDS team
Introduction to the GDS team GDS will serve as the prime contractor for these studies. GDS is a privately- held multi-service engineering and consulting firm, with more than 175 JEFFREY HUBER JACOB THOMAS PATRICK BURNS employees. Our broad range of expertise focuses on clients associated with, Overa
Slide 72: Electric Vehicle (EV) / Solar PV Forecasts
DSM Market Potential Study Introduction Electric Vehicle (EV) / Solar PV Forecasts Patrick Burns, PV Modeling Lead and Regulatory/IRP Support, Brightline Group Jordan Janflone, EV Modeling Forecasting, GDS Associates 72 2022 IRP
Slide 73: Residential Electric Vehicle Forecast
Residential Electric Vehicle Forecast →Goal is to forecast total number of EVs and resulting energy use in AES-IN service territory →Various assumptions are needed as inputs →Very broad ranges for EV penetration in the market, various sources have differing opinions and projections 73 2022 IRP
Slide 74: Residential Electric Vehicle Forecast
Residential Electric Vehicle Forecast →EV Unit forecast informs EV Total Energy Forecast →Similar process to a typical customer class forecast Total number of EVs Total energy consumed by EVs 74 2022 IRP
Slide 75: Residential Electric Vehicle Forecast
Residential Electric Vehicle Forecast Input Source Number of residential customers AES-IN Load Forecast Average number of vehicles per household U.S. Census – Indianapolis Metropolitan Area Average vehicle life U.S. Department of Transportation Initial number of EVs EV Registration data from AES-IN
Slide 76: Residential Customer Forecast
Residential Customer Forecast AES Forecast - # of Residential Customers 540,000 520,000 500,000 480,000 460,000 440,000 420,000 400,000 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 76 2022 IRP
Slide 77: EV Sales Trend Forecast
EV Sales Trend Forecast Assumed EV % of New Vehicle Sales 25% Linear Trend 20% Expontential Bass Diffusion 15% 10% 5% 0% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 77 2022 IRP
Slide 78: EV Sales Scenarios
EV Sales Scenarios Assumed EV % of New Vehicle Sales →Linear trend was selected for 45% scenario modeling 40% Low →EIA uses a linear trend sales trend 35% Base →3 trend scenarios were modeled 30% High → Low projections are similar to 25% current EIA forecast 20% → Medium aligns with a blend of the 1
Slide 79: EV Sales Scenarios
EV Sales Scenarios Number of Electric Vehicles in AES Territory 400,000 350,000 Low 300,000 Base 250,000 High 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 79 2022 IRP
Slide 80: Electric Vehicle Energy (MWh) Forecast
Electric Vehicle Energy (MWh) Forecast →Energy is a function of total Input Base High Low EV units, average kWh/mile, Starting Number of and total number of Vehicles 7,000 7,000 7,000 miles/year/EV % of EV Sales in 11% 21% 6% 2030 →3 trend scenarios were % of EV Sales in 20% 40% 10% modeled 2040 → L
Slide 81: EV Energy (MWh) Forecast
EV Energy (MWh) Forecast Electric Vehicle MWh Sales 1,000,000 900,000 Low 800,000 Base 700,000 High 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 81 2022 IRP
Slide 82: Residential Electric Vehicle Load Shape
Residential Electric Vehicle Load Shape → Load shapes for electric vehicles come from: → Non-managed Charging – Guidehouse which uses a blend of utility EV metering programs and synthetic datasets from US National Labs → Managed Charging – AES Indiana AMI data from EVX customers Weekday: Non-managed
Slide 83: PV Preliminary Forecast – Bass diffusion model
PV Preliminary Forecast Forecast Framework – Bass diffusion model →Key parameters: → Existing market share → Maximum market share → Coefficients of innovation (p) and imitation (q) 83 2022 IRP
Slide 84: PV Preliminary Forecast – Bass model parameters
PV Preliminary Forecast – Bass model parameters →Existing market share: → AES IN 2021 Q3 cumulative net metering data • 625 existing residential systems • 46 existing non-residential systems → Maximum market share: → AES IN customer forecast → PV technical constraint factor • 48% residential; 79% no
Slide 85: PV Preliminary Forecast – Scenario Analysis
PV Preliminary Forecast – Scenario Analysis 3 Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenarios Considered →Scenarios based on adoption probability: → Currently estimated based on CAGR of historically installed systems within AES IN territory and regional customer WTP survey data → Will be updated based on findings
Slide 86: PV Forecast Results – Residential Number of Premises
PV Preliminary Forecast Model forecast results – Residential Solar Adoption - No. of Systems 80,000 70,000 60,000 Number of Premises 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year BAU - high BAU - medium BAU - low 86 2022 IRP
Slide 87: PV Forecast Results – Residential Generation
PV Preliminary Forecast Model forecast results – Residential Solar Generation – MWh DC 800,000 700,000 Low Base 600,000 High MWh - DC 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Slide 88: PV Forecast Results – Non-Residential Number of Premises
PV Preliminary Forecast Model forecast results – Non-Residential Solar Adoption - No. of Systems 7,000 6,000 5,000 Number of Premises 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year BAU - high BAU - medium BAU - low 88 2022 IRP
Slide 89: PV Forecast Results – Non-Residential Generation
PV Preliminary Forecast Model forecast results – Non-Residential Solar Generation – MWh DC 600,000 Low 500,000 Base High 400,000 MWh - DC 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2
Slide 90: PV Load Shape
PV Load Shape →Load shapes for solar come from: → Residential customer AMI data for ground (50%) and roof (50%) solar installations 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 12AM 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Slide 91: DSM Market Potential Study Introduction
91 2022 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) DSM Market Potential Study Introduction Presented by IRP Partners
Slide 92: Introduction to the DSM Process in the IRP
Introduction to the DSM Process in the IRP IURC Rules – 170 IAC 4-7-8-c-4 “Analysis showing Supply-side resources and demand-side resources have been evaluated on a consistent and comparable basis.” 92 2022 IRP
Slide 93: Agenda
Agenda → Overview • Team Introduction • Purpose of a Market Potential Study (MPS) • MPS/IRP Related Work → Market Research • End-Use Analysis • Willingness to Participate in DSM Programs → Energy Efficiency (EE) Potential → Demand Response (DR) Potential → Initial EV/PV Forecasts 93 2022 IRP
Slide 94: Introduction to the GDS team
Introduction to the GDS team GDS will serve as the prime contractor for these studies. GDS is a privately- held multi-service engineering and consulting firm, with more than 175 JEFFREY HUBER JACOB THOMAS PATRICK BURNS employees. Our broad range of expertise focuses on clients associated with, Overa
Slide 95: What is a Market Potential Study?
What is a Market Potential Study? Simply put, a potential study is a quantitative analysis of the amount of energy savings that either exists, is cost- effective, or could be realized through the implementation of energy efficiency programs and policies. 95 2022 IRP
Slide 96: Purpose of a Market Potential Study
Purpose of a Market Potential Study Market Potential Study identifies the remaining amount of EE/DR potential in the AES-IN service territory The savings potential from this analysis will be used to create EE/DR resources to be modeled in the IRP. EE/DR selections from the IRP will be used to inform
Slide 97: Market Research
DSM Market Potential Study Introduction Market Research Jeffrey Huber, Overall Project Manager and MPS Lead, GDS Associates Jacob Thomas, Market Research and End-Use Analysis Lead, GDS Associates Melissa Young, Demand Response Lead, GDS Associates 97 2022 IRP
Slide 98: Market Research Activities
Market Research Activities RESEARCH TO IMPROVE UPON RESEARCH TO HELP INPUTS TYPICALLY USED IN UNDERSTAND MOTIVATIONS BOTH LOAD FORECAST & MPS AND BARRIERS TO ADOPTION -Primary & Secondary Research -Willingness to Participate (WTP) at varying ▪ Surveys & onsite visits incentive levels ▪ Building ener
Slide 99: Residential Baseline Survey Statistics
Residential Baseline Survey Statistics # of Response Achieved Market Segment Sample Design Sample Frame Responses Rate Precision Total Residential 95/5 Design = 3.1% 15,000 (100%) 972 6.5% Population 384 Responses @ 95% Conf. 90/10 Design = 5.4% Multifamily Homes 2,720 (18%) 231 8.5% 68 Responses @
Slide 100: Equipment Characteristics
Equipment Characteristics Primary Source of Heat ▪ Data collection elements limited to items that may be answered accurately Other -1% ▪ Residential survey collected ▪Ownership, age, and count of electric end- Electric 47% use appliances Gas 53% ▪Information on smart appliances and electric vehicles
Slide 101: Willingness to Participate (WTP) Sample Sizes
Willingness to Participate (WTP) Sample Sizes Actual # of Achieved Precision Residential Modules Est # of Completions Completions @ 90% Confidence Water Heater Efficiency 180 349 4.4% Clothes Dryer Efficiency 146 264 5.1% Insulation Efficiency 230 279 4.9% HVAC Efficiency 195 283 4.9% DER – Solar PV
Slide 102: WTP Survey Research
WTP Survey Research → Represents the proportion →Long-term adoption rates will be estimated at the of customers who can be end-use or measures level for key end uses: reasonably expected to perform energy efficiency upgrades through DSM programs → Used to estimate likely long- term adoption rates fo
Slide 103: Energy Efficiency (EE) Potential
DSM Market Potential Study Introduction Energy Efficiency (EE) Potential Jeffrey Huber, Overall Project Manager and MPS Lead, GDS Associates Jacob Thomas, Market Research and End-Use Analysis Lead, GDS Associates Melissa Young, Demand Response Lead, GDS Associates 103 2022 IRP
Slide 104: Overall Market Potential Study Process
Overall Market Potential Study Process 104 2022 IRP
Slide 105: MPS Segmentation
MPS Segmentation Residential Commercial Industrial Home Types End-Uses Building Types End-Uses Industry Types End-Uses Single Family – Market Rate Whole Building Education Whole Building Chemicals HVAC Multifamily – Market Rate Heat Food/Liquor Heat Electronics Lighting Single Family – Income Qualif
Slide 106: Measure Characterization
Measure Characterization ❑ Several hundred energy efficiency measures will be considered ❑ Draft list of measures to be considered were shared with AES-IN Staff and members of the AES-IN Oversight Board (OSB) ❑ Key data source: AES-IN planning and evaluation databases and Illinois TRM ❑ Measure assu
Slide 107: Emerging Technologies
Emerging Technologies → Emerging technologies and practices are defined as those that are either: (1) not yet commercialized but are likely to be commercialized and cost-effective for a significant proportion of end-users (on a life-cycle cost basis) over the next few years; or (2) commercialized, b
Slide 108: Energy Efficiency Potential Types
Energy Efficiency Potential Types TECHNICAL POTENTIAL ECONOMIC POTENTIAL ACHIEVABLE POTENTIAL All technically feasible measures All measures are screened for cost- Cost-effective energy efficiency are incorporated to provide a effectiveness using the UCT Test. potential that can practically be attai
Slide 109: Technical Potential Calculation
Technical Potential Calculation RESIDENTIAL EQUATION NON-RESIDENTIAL EQUATION 109 2022 IRP
Slide 110: Economic Potential
Economic Potential ECONOMIC POTENTIAL Subset of the Technical Potential that is economically cost effective (based on screening with the Utility Cost Test) Screen measures for cost- - = effectiveness over the 20-year forecast horizon NON-COST TECHNICAL ECONOMIC EFFECTIVE 110 2022 IRP
Slide 111: Achievable / Program Potential
Achievable / Program Potential Example Residential Long-Term Adoption Rates by Adoption Curve based on varying incentive levels End Use and Incentive Level (building shell example) 100% 100% 90% 90% 100% Incentives 100% Incentive 75% Incentive 80% 80% 50% Incentives 50% Incentive 25% Incentive 70% 7
Slide 112: Demand Response (DR) Potential
DSM Market Potential Study Introduction Demand Response (DR) Potential Jeffrey Huber, Overall Project Manager and MPS Lead, GDS Associates Jacob Thomas, Market Research and End-Use Analysis Lead, GDS Associates Melissa Young, Demand Response Lead, GDS Associates 112 2022 IRP
Slide 113: Demand Response Programs Considered
Demand Response Programs Considered → DLC – Central ACs → DLC –Room ACs → DLC – Smart Appliances → DLC – Water Heaters → DLC – Electric Space Heat → DLC – Lighting → Battery Energy Storage → Electric Vehicle Charing → Curtailment Agreements → Demand Bidding → Capacity Bidding → Time of Use Rates → B
Slide 114: Demand Response Methodology
Demand Response Methodology → Analysis will be conducted using GDS Demand Response Model (DR Model) → Utility-specific data on avoided costs, line losses, and discount rates will be incorporated → Participation rates will be developed to simulate the rate at which load reductions can be attained ove
Slide 115: Demand Response Equations
Demand Response Equations Achievable Potential Calculation: ❑ If the model user chooses to base estimated potential demand reduction on percent of total per participant CP load, then: Achievable Eligible Demand = Potentially Eligible X Customer X Per Customer CP Load for Eligible Customer X Percent
Slide 116: Final Q&A and Next Steps
Final Q&A and Next Steps 116
Slide 117: Thank You
Thank You 117
Slide 118: Appendix
APPENDIX 118
Slide 119: IRP Acronyms
IRP Acronyms Note: A glossary of acronyms with definitions is available at https://www.aesindiana.com/integrated-resource-plan. 119
Slide 120: IRP Acronyms
IRP Acronyms • ACEE: The American Council for an Energy-Efficient • EE: Energy Efficiency • NDA: Nondisclosure Agreement Economy • EFORd: Equivalent Forced Outage Rate Demand • NOX: Nitrogen Oxides • AMI: Advanced Metering Infrastructure • EIA: Energy Information Administration • NREL: National Rene