Origin Energy Limited · ASX:ORG
Origin Energy — Macquarie Australia Conference 2014
19 slides from Origin Energy's conference presentation, May 8, 2014
Slide 1: ASX announcement cover fax
For personal use only To Company Announcements Office Facsimile 1300 135 638 Company ASX Limited Date 8 May 2014 From Helen Hardy Pages 19 Subject Macquarie Australia Conference Investor Presentation Please find attached a release on the above subject. Regards Helen Hardy Company Secretary 02 8345 5
Slide 2: Australian Energy – A Changing Landscape
For personal use only Origin Energy “Australian Energy – A Changing Landscape” Grant King, Managing Director Macquarie Australia Conference 7-9 May 2014
Slide 3: Important Notice
Important Notice For personal use only Forward looking statements This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certa
Slide 4: Origin's strategy of connecting resources to markets
Since Origin was established in 2000 it has pursued a strategy of connecting resources to markets … For personal use only The leading integrated energy markets business in Australia and New Zealand Flexible and diverse fuel portfolio Flexible and diverse generation portfolio Leading retail cus
Slide 5: Investment through to 2017 will bring significant LNG capacity online
Significant investment through to 2017 will see around 85 mtpa1 of LNG capacity on line across Australia … For personal use only Darwin LNG Ichthys Exporting to Asia Pacific ~12 mtpa markets where demand is set to almost double Prelude ~ 3.5 mtpa from 175 mtpa in 2013 to 325 mtpa in 20251 NWS Pluto
Slide 6: LNG export projects are transforming the domestic gas market
Australia’s investment in LNG export projects are transforming the domestic gas market … For personal use only World LNG Production1 Australia’s East Coast Gas Demand2 mtpa PJ 90 2,500 80 LNG 2012 2019 70 Domestic 2,000 60 50 40 1,500 30 20 1,000 10 0 500 0 2012 2019 Australia forecast to emerge as
Slide 7: Domestic gas value lifting to export parity pricing
This will lift the value of Australian gas resources to export parity pricing … For personal use only Australian domestic gas prices are Origin’s 2P Equity Reserves moving towards export parity PJe 10.00 6,000 8.00 5,000 6.00 $/GJ 4.00 4,000 2.00 - 3,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 USD USD USD 75/bbl 85/bbl
Slide 8: APLNG on track to deliver first LNG by mid-2015
APLNG is on track to deliver first LNG by mid-2015, creating a step change in Origin’s earnings and cash flows For personal use only Upstream 67% Complete1 APLNG CSG acreage (operated and non-operated) Downstream 68% Complete1 APLNG’s industry leading reserves base includes prime acreage in both kno
Slide 9: Strong domestic mass market and C&I gas position
Origin has established a strong domestic mass market and C&I gas position … For personal use only Origin’s Natural Gas Mass Market Sources of Origin Energy Markets’ Share in the NEM1 East Coast Contracted Gas Portfolio PJ/a 300 Ironbark (new equity gas) 2 Other purchases Origin APLNG purchases Origi
Slide 10: Leading developer of east coast conventional gas and CSG
Origin is a leading developer of east coast conventional gas and CSG … For personal use only • Developments at HBW, Speculant and Yolla in Otway and Bass basins. Origin OIL AND GAS as operator Conventional • Exploration with MEO in the Bonaparte Basin. Origin as operator • Exploration through existi
Slide 11: Two highly prospective unconventional gas opportunities
Origin has recently secured two highly prospective unconventional gas opportunities … For personal use only Cooper Basin Beetaloo Basin1 • Prospective Allunga, Nappamerri and • Significant unconventional gas exploration Patchawarra troughs position in one of NT’s most prospective • Exposure to uncon
Slide 12: Reduced demand and prior investment have resulted in oversupply
In the electricity market, reduced demand and prior investments in generation have resulted in over supply … TWh NEM Electricity Demand and Supply1 For personal use only 350 Mothballed Unutilised CCGT 300 Unutilised Brown Coal Unutilised Black Coal 250 Reduced demand Other Renewables projections Res
Slide 13: Excess supply lowers wholesale cost of energy
Excess supply lowers short run marginal cost of generation to meet expected demand resulting in lower wholesale cost of energy For personal use only NEM Baseload Bid Stack1 $/MWh Average Annual NEM Prices (no carbon) 80 Estimated carbon cost Average Prices Greater than $300/MWh Average Prices Less t
Slide 14: LNG production pulling gas from generation, rotation to black coal
LNG production expected to pull gas from generation, driving a rotation from gas to black coal generation For personal use only Gas Used in Gas Fired Generation in the NEM1 Thermal Energy Supply in the NEM PJ (based on TWh of generation) 250 Annual gas use in 100% generation drops from 200 PJ/a to 6
Slide 15: RET scheme under review
The RET scheme is under review with current targets requiring new investment in excess of growth in demand … For personal use only 2007 2013 AEMO Annual Cost of Green Schemes For TWh Policy adjusted Current Residential NSW Customers2 demand Estimate of demand in 2020 300 230 230 RET Target 45 - - LR
Slide 16: Diverse and flexible generation and fuel portfolio
Origin’s diverse and flexible generation and fuel portfolio enables Origin to navigate changing market dynamics … Generation Flexibility1 PJ/a Gas Flexibility1 TWh For personal use only 45 250 Gas Generation 40 Gas C&I / LNG Gas Mass Market 200 35 Contract 30 or Spot Market 150 25 Mass Market 20 and
Slide 17: New Zealand: no major gas discoveries for many years
In New Zealand, despite extensive exploration, there have been no major gas discoveries for many years … For personal use only New Zealand 2P Gas Reserves1 Sources of New Zealand Gas Demand2 PJ PJ 3,500 250 Electricity Generation Cogeneration 3,000 Methanol Other Demand 200 2,500 2,000 150 1,500 100
Slide 18: Transition from gas to geothermal generation in New Zealand
Gas to methanol production and no step change in NZ gas reserves have supported a transition from gas to geothermal generation … For personal use only NZ Geothermal and Thermal Energy Supply1 Te Mihi Power Station (based on TWh of generation) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Calendar Year
Slide 19: Thank you
For personal use only Thank you For more information David Moon Group Manager, Investor Relations Email: david.moon@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 2 9375 5816 Mobile: + 61 437 039 310 www.originenergy.com.au