Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF
Cf Industries — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation
20 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Feb 20, 2025
Slide 1: 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results
2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results February 19, 2025 NYSE: CF
Slide 2: Safe harbor statement
Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such
Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures
Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, which are non-GAAP financi
Slide 4: Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation
Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation $328M $562M $2.3B $1.9B Q4 2024 Q4 2024 FY 2024 FY 2024 Net Earnings Adjusted EBITDA(1) Cash from Operations Capital Returned to Shareholders(2) $1.2B $2.3B $1.4B $1.1B FY 2024 FY 2024 FY 2024 Remaining in Current $3B Net Earnings Adjust
Slide 5: Leading converter of EBITDA into Cash
Leading converter of EBITDA into Cash FCF to adjusted EBITDA conversion(1) Full Year 2024 LTM Q3 2024 63% 39% 12% 3% (in millions) CF Yara Nutrien Mosaic Adj. EBITDA(2) $2,284 $2,051 $5,375 $2,254 Cash from Operations $2,271 $1,286 $4,562 $1,618 Free Cash Flow $1,445 $61 $2,101 $266 Shares Outstandi
Slide 6: Fourth quarter and full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA
Fourth quarter and full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023 Adjusted EBITDA(1) FY 2024 vs FY 2023 Adjusted EBITDA(1) $ millions $ millions $592 $2,760 $46 $562 $(36) $(5) $436 $2,284 $(35) $(45) $(716) $(151) Adj. EBITDA Realized Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBITDA Realized Adj. EBITDA Q4 2023 Price Vo
Slide 7: Returned $1.9B to shareholders; the highest return in the past decade
Returned $1.9B to shareholders; the highest return in the past decade Q4 2024 Cash Sources and Uses FY 2024 Cash Sources and Uses $ millions $ millions $2,271 $(518) $420 $(308) $1,877 $(197) $1,614 $2,032 $(461) $(25) $10 $1,614 $(1,873) Cash Cash from Return to Cash Cash Cash from CHS Return to Ca
Slide 8: Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share
Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share Intend to repurchase remaining $1.1B of authorization by December 2025 expiration Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding Since 2010: Increased production capacity 36% Decreased share count 52% 48 39 30 17 2010 2015 2
Slide 9: Clean Energy Growth
Evaluation of greenfield low-carbon ammonia production facility nearing completion Clean Energy Growth Blue Point Project Summary Key Milestones ~$4B ~$500M Multiple FEED studies completed ammonia scalable production unit infrastructure ATR technology selected 1.4 MMT >90% CO2 production emissions F
Slide 10: Projected capacity shortfall requires at least eight additional world-scale ammonia facilities
Projected capacity shortfall requires at least eight additional world-scale(1) ammonia facilities to meet demand growth Estimated 5-year Global Ammonia Demand and Supply Growth (ex. China) (Million metric tons) 12-14 MMT Additional ammonia facilities required 8-9 MMT shortfall 8.3 MMT 3-4 MMT 4-5 MM
Slide 11: Forward energy spreads remain favorable for low-cost producers
Forward energy spreads remain favorable for low-cost producers; Europe remains global marginal producer Global Energy Price 2023-2025F USD per MMBtu $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 ~$400/mt(1) ammonia margin opportunity $8 $6 $4 $2 $- Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 JKM (Asia) natural gas TTF (Europe)
Slide 12: Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics
Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics 2025 Nitrogen Market Outlook Global grains stocks-to-use ratio tightening United States corn plantings expected to be ~93 million acres Near-term global nitrogen Europe remains the marginal producer market remains constructive Chinese exports
Slide 13: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table
CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of industry conditions Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1) $ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 CF
Slide 14: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 15: Pathways to grow shareholder value
Pathways to grow shareholder value Disciplined Invest in high Low-carbon ammonia Margin enhancing growth initiatives return projects production growth projects & clean energy within our network Share repurchases Return capital Inorganic growth Evaluate accretive and quarterly dividends to shareholde
Slide 16: Below average global coarse grains stocks-to-use supports favorable nitrogen demand in 2025
Below average global coarse grains stocks-to-use and farm economics support favorable nitrogen demand in 2025 Global Coarse Grains Stocks-to-Use Ratio Anticipated Average Returns over Variable vs Corn Futures Prices(1) and Land Cost(2) $/acre, U.S. average 16% $8 $300 Corn 14% $7 $250 Soybeans 12% $
Slide 17: Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization
Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization Total Recordable Incident Rate North American Ammonia Percent of Capacity Utilization(1) 5-Year Rolling Avg. Percent of Capacity Total injuries per 200,000 work hours 100% CF North 4.5 America (2) 98% 97% 96% 96%
Slide 18: Financial results – fourth quarter and FY 2024
Financial results – fourth quarter and FY 2024 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q4 2024 Q4 2023 FY 2024 FY 2023 Net sales $ 1,524 $ 1,571 $ 5,936 $ 6,631 Gross margin 524 501 2,056 2,545 - As a percentage of net sales 34.4 % 31.9 % 34.6 % 38.4 % Net earnings attributable to common
Slide 19: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA In millions Q4 2024 Q4 2023 FY 2024 FY 2023 Net earnings $ 392 $ 352 $ 1,477 $ 1,838 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (64) (78) (259) (313) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 328 274 1,218
Slide 20: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow In millions, except percentages CF Yara Nutrien Mosaic FY 2024 FY 2024 LTM Q3 2024 LTM Q3 2024 Cash provided by operating activities $ 2,271 $ 1,286 $ 4,562 $ 1,618 Capital expenditures(1) (518) (1,038) (2,064) (1,317) Non-controllin
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