Exelon Corporation · NASDAQ:EXC
Exelon — 2007 Exelon Investor Conference
31 slides from Exelon's conference presentation, Dec 19, 2007
Slide 1: 2007 Exelon Investor Conference
John W. Rowe Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer 2007 Exelon Investor Conference New York, NY December 19, 2007 Exhibit 99.2
Slide 2: Sustainable value
Sustainable value
Slide 3: Sustainable Financial Performance
Total Shareholder Return Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating EPS 2000 – 2008 compound annual operating EPS growth is projected at ~10%. Seven-year total return exceeds 240% $3.22 $3.10 $2.78 $2.61 $2.41 $2.24 $1.93 Oct- Apr- Oct- Apr- Oct- Apr- Oct- Apr- Oct- Apr- Oct- Apr- Oct- Apr- Oct- 10/20/00 – 11/30
Slide 4: Sustainable Operating Excellence – Exelon Generation
Average Capacity Factor Range of Fleet 2-Yr Avg Capacity Factor (2002-2006) Sustainable Operating Excellence – Exelon Generation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Exelon Industry Note: Exelon data prior to represent ComEd-only nuclear fleet. Sources: Platt’s, Nuclear News, Nuclear Energy I
Slide 5: Fewer Interruptions and Shorter Outages – ComEd
Fewer Interruptions and Shorter Outages Sustainable Operating and Regulatory Performance – ComEd Note: Data based on IEEE definition which excludes major events and planned outages. “State touts rate-relief plan; Proposal could trim average ComEd bill $8 a month” (July 24, 2007) 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Slide 6: Fewer Interruptions and Shorter Outages – PECO
Fewer Interruptions and Shorter Outages Sustainable Operating and Regulatory Performance – PECO 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 2007 Projected Frequency (SAIFI) Duration (CAIDI) “Rendell sees urgent need to complete energy plan” (September 14, 2007) Note: Data based on IEEE definition which exclu
Slide 7: A Sustainable Vision, A Dynamic Strategy
5 Protect Today’s Value Grow Long-Term Value DRAFT 12/7/2006 10:00 AM A Sustainable Vision, A Dynamic Strategy Exelon’s Strategic Direction • Deliver superior operating performance – Keep the lights on – Continue nuclear excellence • Support competitive markets – Maintain/bolster PJM – Step up advoc
Slide 8: A Sustainable Environment
A Sustainable Environment
Slide 9: Sustainable value
Sustainable value
Slide 10: John F. Young, EVP Finance and Markets, and CFO
John F. Young Executive Vice President, Finance and Markets, and Chief Financial Officer 2007 Exelon Investor Conference New York, NY December 19, 2007
Slide 11: Financial Update: YTD Highlights and 2008 EPS Guidance
2007 Operating EPS Guidance of $4.15 - $4.30 2008 Operating EPS Guidance of $4.00 - $4.40 $0.55 - $0.60 $3.15 - $3.45 $0.35 - $0.40 YTD Highlights • Solid financial operating EPS results - Higher generation margins - Favorable weather - Strong nuclear performance • Illinois Settlement • Engaged in P
Slide 12: Exelon Is Uniquely Positioned for Sustainable Value Creation
PECO ExGen ~9% Compound Annual Growth Rate in EPS from 2007 to 2011 ExGen ComEd Operating EPS Guidance: $4.15 – $4.30 Major Driver: End of below-market contract in PA Exelon Is Uniquely Positioned for Sustainable Value Creation
Slide 13: Exelon
Exelon.
Slide 14: Exelon Generation
___ Exelon. Generation
Slide 15: Slide 15
Slide 16: Slide 16
Slide 17: Value Proposition: Exelon Generation
Value Proposition Exelon Generation is the premier unregulated generation company – positioned to capture market opportunities and manage risk Protect Value Grow Value • Large, low-cost, low-emissions, exceptionally well-run nuclear fleet • Complementary and flexible fossil and hydro fleet • Improvi
Slide 18: Sustainable Operating Excellence
Average Capacity Factor Range of Fleet 2-Yr Avg Capacity Factor (2002-2006) Sustainable Operating Excellence 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Exelon Industry Note: Exelon data prior to 2000 represent ComEd-only nuclear fleet. Sources: Platt’s, Nuclear News, Nuclear Energy Institute and En
Slide 19: Positively Exposed to Market Dynamics
Reserve Margins Declining Natural Gas Prices Remaining High Carbon Legislation Progressing Construction Costs Escalating -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% PJM-West PJM-East NI-Hub ERCOT $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 NYMEX (1) Positively Exposed to Market Dynamics Note: Illustrative estimate. Overnight, a
Slide 20: Un-hedged EBITDA Drives Exelon Generation's Value
Un-hedged (“Open”) EBITDA plus upside from energy, capacity, and carbon drives Exelon Generation’s value Hedged – 2008E Un-hedged – 2008E (1) Hedged – 2007E 2008 Un-hedged EBITDA (1) Assumptions 2008 Un-hedged EBITDA (1) Sensitivities 2008 “Open” EBITDA 2008 EBITDA 2008 Un-hedged EBITDA (No Carbon)
Slide 21: Disciplined Financial Management
Disciplined Financial Management • Announced a new Value Return Policy last December – Established annual base dividend of $1.76/share; anticipated to grow modestly over time – Returns excess cash and/or balance sheet capacity through share repurchases • Executed a $1.25 billion accelerated share re
Slide 22: 2008 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash
2008 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash $1,240 Cash available after Dividend ($1,310) Dividend (3) $2,550 Cash available before Dividend $1,220 Net Financing (excluding Dividend) (2) ($3,120) Capital Expenditures $4,450 Cash Flow from Operations (1) Exelon (4) $ Millions (1) Cash Flow from Operation
Slide 23: Incremental Balance Sheet Capacity Over Five Years
Exelon expects to create substantial incremental balance sheet capacity over the next five years, based on planning assumptions 2008 - 2012 Potential Uses of Available Cash 2008 - 2012 Cumulative Available Cash (Illustrative) (-25%) Forward Gas Prices as of 7/31/07 (+25%) Balance Sheet Capacity • Gr
Slide 24: Exelon is uniquely positioned to create sustainable value
Exelon is uniquely positioned to create sustainable value Sustainable Value • Continued strong financial and operating performance, and long-term earnings growth driven by unregulated generation • Largest, lowest-cost nuclear fleet in competitive markets • Executing regulatory recovery plan to put C
Slide 25: Sustainable value
Sustainable value
Slide 26: Key Assumptions
Key Assumptions 37.3 1.2 2.0 23.90 115.40 6.40 6.80 43.60 7.30 7.80 57.1 7.00 149,800 40,900 (5) 190,700 94.7 2007 Est. 37.2 1.6 1.2 82.40 169.10 5.60 8.40 47.00 6.60 9.50 62.90 8.50 148,200 41,100 (5) 189,300 93.1 2008 Est. 6.56 8.41 Chicago City Gate Gas Price ($/mmBtu) 7.31 9.67 Tetco M3 Gas Pric
Slide 27: ComEd 2008 EPS Contribution
ComEd’s operating earnings are expected to increase in 2008 primarily due to execution of its Regulatory Recovery Plan ComEd 2008 EPS Contribution (1) RNF O&M Depreciation / Amortization Interest Expense Other $0.35 - $0.40 $220M - $260M (2) $0.20 - $0.25 $0.21 $0.02 ($0.02) $(0.04) (1) $0.01 Key It
Slide 28: PECO 2008 EPS Contribution
PECO’s operating earnings are expected to decrease in 2008 primarily due to increasing CTC amortization expense PECO 2008 EPS Contribution (1) (1) $0.65 - $0.70 $451M ($0.08) $0.01 ($0.02) ($0.01) $0.55 - $0.60 $360M - $400M RNF O&M CTC Amortization / Depreciation Other NOTE: Refer to “Key Assumptio
Slide 29: Exelon Generation 2008 EPS Contribution
Exelon Generation’s earnings are impacted primarily by increased number of refueling outages and nuclear fuel expense Exelon Generation 2008 EPS Contribution (1) (1) ($0.05) $(0.17) $0.05 $3.15 - $3.45 $2,060M - $2,260M RNF O&M Other Key Items: Inflation: ($0.07) Nuclear security: ($0.02) Add’l refu
Slide 30: Projected 2008 Key Credit Measures
Projected 2008 Key Credit Measures 3.5x – 5.5x BBB 2.6x 2.6x FFO / Interest ComEd: 25% – 40% 11% 9% FFO / Debt 52% – 42% 57% 60% Rating Agency Debt Ratio Adjusted Book Debt Ratio: 44% 2.5x – 3.5x A 4.1x 4.1x FFO / Interest PECO: 12% – 20% 20% 17% FFO / Debt 62% – 52% 49% 52% Rating Agency Debt Ratio
Slide 31: FFO Calculation and Ratios
FFO Calculation and Ratios FFO Calculation = FFO - PECO Transition Bond Principal Paydown + Gain on Sale, Extraordinary Items and Other Non-Cash Items (3) + Change in Deferred Taxes + Depreciation, amortization (including nucl fuel amortization), AFUDC/Cap. Interest Add back non-cash items: Net Inco