First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA

First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (November 2025)

31 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Nov 20, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Making Sense: Monthly Market Update

    Making Sense Monthly Market Update Phillip N euhart, SVP Senior Director of Market and Economic Research Blake Taylor, VP Market and Economic Research Analyst Recorded on November 20, 2025

  2. Slide 2: What are we going to cover?

    Making Sense What are we going to cover? 1. Economic update: Federal Reserve policy | Inflation & labor market | Consumer spending 2. Market update: Equity markets | Valuations | Fixed income

  3. Slide 3: Economic & policy update

    Making Sense Economic & policy update Labor market & inflation | Fed policy | Household spending

  4. Slide 4: Central bank policy is in easing mode across developed market economies

    Central bank policy is in easing mode across developed market economies Change in Central Bank Policy Rates: US, Europe, Japan, UK, Canada 24-Month Rolling Sum Percentage points, 24-month rolling sum Source: Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, ECB (European Central Bank), Bank of Japan

  5. Slide 5: Markets have been priced for lower interest rates for the last 2.5 years

    Markets have been priced for lower interest rates for the last 2.5 years Market-Implied Change in Federal Funds Rate, Next 12 Months Source: Bloomberg, First Citizens Bank Data as of: 11/19/2025 5

  6. Slide 6: Official labor data shed light on an economy from at least two months ago

    Official labor data shed light on an economy from at least two months ago Monthly Change in US Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate (3-month average) Number of new jobs (thousands) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First

  7. Slide 7: Official labor data shed light on an economy from two months ago

    Official labor data shed light on an economy from two months ago Monthly Growth in Nonfarm Payroll Employment No. of Persons, 3-month average Source: Revelio Labs, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Data as of November 20, 2025 7

  8. Slide 8: The number of job cuts surged in October, further stoking labor market fears

    The number of job cuts surged in October, further stoking labor market fears Challenger Job Cuts Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., First Citizens Bank Data as of November 6, 2025 8

  9. Slide 9: Market confidence in a December rate cut has plunged

    Market confidence in a December rate cut has plunged Market-Implied Probability of a 25bp Interest-Rate Cut in December 2025 Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 11/20/2025, 9:00am 9

  10. Slide 10: It is not clear how restrictive monetary policy is today

    It is not clear how restrictive monetary policy is today Federal Funds Target Rate vs. Rate Implied by the Fed's Monetary Policy "Rule" Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 17, 2025 10

  11. Slide 11: Easy financial conditions have likely delivered a positive growth impulse

    Easy financial conditions have likely delivered a positive growth impulse US Financial Conditions Index Source: Goldman Sachs, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 19, 2025 11

  12. Slide 12: Inflation is running at a 3% pace

    Inflation is running at a 3% pace Consumer Price Index (Core, ex-food and energy) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Data as of October 24, 2025 12

  13. Slide 13: Markets and households no longer fear inflation as much as earlier this year

    Markets and households no longer fear inflation as much as earlier this year Household Inflation Expectations Market Inflation Expectations Source: Bloomberg Source: University of Michigan, First Citizens Bank Note: The 5Y5Y swap rate is the implied inflation rate in years 6-10 from today. Data as o

  14. Slide 14: There are more bankruptcies than a few years ago but still fewer than in 2019

    There are more bankruptcies than a few years ago but still fewer than in 2019 United States, Bankruptcies, Business, Filings, Total Source: The American Bankruptcy Institute, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 5, 2025 14

  15. Slide 15: Consumer spending growth continues to moderate but remains healthy

    Consumer spending growth continues to moderate but remains healthy Consumer Soendina Growth Consumer Spending Growth by Category Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), First Citizens Bank Source: Bloomberg, First Citizens Bank Data through August 2025 Data as of August 2025 15

  16. Slide 16: The number of airline travelers has tracked with last year at record levels

    The number of airline travelers has tracked with last year at record levels Number of Airport Travelers Passing Through TSA Checkpoints Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 19, 2025 16

  17. Slide 17: Households have never rated current economic conditions as bad as today's

    Households have never rated current economic conditions as bad as today's Consumer Sentiment Index: Current Economic Conditions Source: University of Michigan, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 7, 2025 17

  18. Slide 18: A record-high share of household net worth is in the stock market

    A record-high share of household net worth is in the stock market Stock market wealth as a share of household net worth Source: Federal Reserve, U S Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Data as of September 26, 2025 18

  19. Slide 19: Market update

    Making Sense Market update Equity markets | Valuations | Fixed income

  20. Slide 20: Stock-market gains have been unrelenting in the second half of 2025

    Stock-market gains have been unrelenting in the second half of 2025 S&P 500 Index Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 11/19/2025 20

  21. Slide 21: Asset price bubbles are a popular topic in the financial press

    Asset price “ bubbles” are a popular topic in the financial press "Bubble" Mentions in Headlines Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 11/20/2025 21

  22. Slide 22: S&P 500 valuations are more modest outside of the 10 largest

    S&P 500 valuations are more modest outside of the 10 largest S&P 500 Market Cap-Weighted Price to Forward Earnings (P/E) Ratio Source: Trivariate Research, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 17, 2025 22

  23. Slide 23: The share of S&P 500 firms with high margins is just below all-time highs

    The share of S&P 500 firm s with high margins is just below all-time highs Share of S&P 500 Firms with Gross Margins of at Least 60% Source: Trivariate Research, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 17, 2025 23

  24. Slide 24: Earnings - not valuation - have been the main driver of total return

    Earnings - not valuation - have been the main driver of total return Contribution to S&P 500 Total Return Since Jan. 1, 2022 Source: Bloomberg, First Citizens Bank. Data as of 8/31/2025. 24

  25. Slide 25: Corporate earnings

    Corporate earnings Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin ■ CY 2025 estimated growth is 11.7% Q3 2025 estimated growth is 13.1% ■ CY 2026 estimated growth is 13.9% ■ Average growth since 1950 is 7.6% Source: FactSet, Bloomberg. Data as of 11/14/2025. 25

  26. Slide 26: S&P 500 price target

    S&P 500 price target Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Percent Next Twelve Months Change from Price Level 11/19/25 Bear 5,200 -21.7% Base 7,200 8.4% Bull 7,800 17.4% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 26

  27. Slide 27: The Treasury yield curve has continued to steepen

    The Treasury yield curve has continued to steepen US Treasury Yield Curve 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% As of Latest date - 11/18/2025 12/31/2024 1 36 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 MM M Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Source: Bloomberg 27

  28. Slide 28: Fixed income volatility has dropped to the lowest in over three years

    Fixed income volatility has dropped to the lowest in over three years Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 11/19/2025 28

  29. Slide 29: Fixed income is still offering attractive yield relative to post-GFC cycle

    Fixed income is still offering attractive yield relative to post-GFC cycle US Fixed Income Indices __ Yield-to-Worst In d e x A s o f 1 1 /1 9 /2 0 2 5 2-Year Treasury 3.6% 10-Year Treasury 4.1% Aggregate Bond 4.4% Intermediate Government/Credit 4.0% Municipal Bond 3.6% Investment Grade Corporate Bo

  30. Slide 30: Making Sense

    Making Sense Brent Ciliano, SVP In B rief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes Chief Investment Officer every Monday morning Q&As | Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top questions we're hearing from clients Phillip N euhart, SVP Director of Market and M arket updates | Monthly int

  31. Slide 31: Making Sense Authors Important Disclosures

    Making Sense Authors Important Disclosures B rent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, C hief In vestm en t O fficer The views expressed are those of the author(s) at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. This Capital Management Group I First Citizens Bank material is for informational purpos

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