National Fuel Gas Company · NYSE:NFG
National Fuel Gas — Investor Presentation (August 2014)
68 slides from National Fuel Gas's investor presentation, Aug 8, 2014
Slide 1: Investor Presentation August 2014
Investor Presentation August 2014 Exhibit 99 National Fuel Gas Company
Slide 2: Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements
National Fuel Gas Company Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, objectives, goals, projections, estimates of oil
Slide 3: Exceptional Assets, Focused on Execution
1.549 Tcfe of Proved Reserves (1) 800,000 Net Acres in Pennsylvania 3.0 MMBbl of Crude Oil Production (2) $235 Million of Midstream Adjusted EBITDA (2) (3) National Fuel Gas Company Exceptional Assets, Focused on Execution (1) As of September 30, 2013 (2) 12 months ended June 30, 2014. Midstream inc
Slide 4: Targeting Sustained EBITDA Growth Over the Next Five Years
$131 $121 $111 $137 $161 $181 $53 $280 $327 $377 $397 $492 $531 National Fuel Gas Company Targeting Sustained EBITDA Growth Over the Next Five Years 2014 – 10-15% Forecasted Adjusted EBITDA CAGR $164 $167 $169 $160 $172 $174 $581 $632 $668 $704 $852 $939 $0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 12-Months End
Slide 5: Capital Spending Adjusts to Capitalize on Opportunities
$53 $38 $129 $144 $56 $130- $140 $200- $250 $80 $55 $135- $145 $125- $175 $188 $398 $649 $694 $533 $575- $625 $650- $750 National Fuel Gas Company Capital Spending Adjusts to Capitalize on Opportunities $56 $58 $58 $58 $72 $85-$90 $95-$105 $307 (1) $501 $854 $977 $717 $925- $1,000 $1,070- $1,280 $0
Slide 6: Maintaining a Strong Balance Sheet
Total Debt (1) 41% Debt / Adjusted EBITDA Capitalization Shareholders’ Equity 59% National Fuel Gas Company Maintaining a Strong Balance Sheet $3.990 Billion As of June 30, 2014 Note: A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income is included at the end of this presentation (1) Long-Term Debt of
Slide 7: Dividend Consistency
Dividend Consistency National Fuel Gas Company Dividend Track Record Current Dividend Yield (1) 2.2% Consecutive Dividend Payments 112 Years Consecutive Dividend Increases 44 Years Current Annualized Dividend Rate $1.54 per Share (1) As of August 6, 2014 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 Annual Rate at
Slide 8: Exploration & Production Overview
Exploration & Production Overview
Slide 9: Proven Record of Growth
Fiscal Years 3-Year F&D Cost (1) ($/Mcfe) 1,300 988 675 428 249 226 46.2 46.6 45.2 43.3 42.9 41.6 Seneca Resources Proven Record of Growth 2006-2008 $7.63 2007-2009 $5.35 2008-2010 $2.37 2009-2011 $2.09 2010-2012 $1.87 2011-2013 $1.67 (1) Represents a three-year average U.S. finding and development
Slide 10: Delivering Tremendous Production Growth
19.8 19.2 20.5 20.0 21 21-23 Seneca Resources Delivering Tremendous Production Growth 16.5 43.2 62.9 100.7 139-147 159-197 13.3 49.7 67.6 83.4 120.7 160-168 180-220 Forecast Forecast Fiscal Year Gulf of Mexico (Divested in 2011) East Division (Appalachia) West Division (California)
Slide 11: Disciplined Capital Spending
$31 $28 $47 $63 $105 $70-$90 $65-$95 Seneca Resources Disciplined Capital Spending $139 $356 $596 $631 $428 $505- $535 $585- $655 $188 (1) $398 $649 $694 $533 $575-$625 $650-$750 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 Forecast Forecast Fiscal Year Gulf of Mexico (Divested in 2011) East Division (Appalachia)
Slide 12: LOE: Operating Costs Down; Transportation Costs Up
$1.35 $1.26 $1.17 $0.91 $0.76 $0.65 $0.52 (2) $0.50 (2) $0.28 $0.20 $0.21 $0.18 $0.28 $0.14 $0.15 $0.10 Seneca Resources LOE: Operating Costs Down; Transportation Costs Up (1) Represents the midpoint of current General & Administrative Expense guidance of $0.40 to $0.45 per Mcfe for fiscal 2014 and
Slide 13: Prolific Pennsylvania Acreage
Eastern Development Area (EDA) Western Development Area (WDA) Average net revenue interest (NRI): 98% No lease expiration No royalty on most acreage Significant economies of scale Highly contiguous 1,700 to 2,000 locations de-risked Mostly leased (16-18% royalty) No near-term lease expiration Limite
Slide 14: EDA Delivering Significant Growth
Covington – Fully Developed Gross Production: ~50 MMcf per Day 47 Wells Drilled and Producing Marcellus Shale EDA Delivering Significant Growth DCNR Tract 595 Gross Production: ~80 MMcf per Day 45 Wells Drilled (1) (52 Total Locations) 32 Wells Producing DCNR Tract 100 Gross Production: ~300 MMcf pe
Slide 15: EDA – Historical Well Results Are Exceptional
Development Area Producing Well Count Average IP Rate (MMcf/d) Average 7-Day (MMcf/d) Average 30-Day (MMcf/d) Average EUR per Well (Bcf) Average Lateral Length EUR per 1,000’ of Lateral (Bcfe) Marcellus Shale EDA – Historical Well Results Are Exceptional Covington Tioga County 5.2 4.7 4.1 5.8 4,023’
Slide 16: Huge High Quality Position
Tier I ~200,000 Acres Northeast Core ~30,000 acres in NE Core Tier I Acres ~200,000 acres Economic at $2.80 to $3.80/Mcfe Longer-Term Evaluation ~250,000 acres (Minimal Lease Expiration) Requires Gas Price Above $4/Mcf ~300,000 acres Marcellus Shale Huge High Quality Position Understanding Seneca’s
Slide 17: 2014 & 2015 WDA Delineation Program
Marcellus Shale 2014 & 2015 WDA Delineation Program Heath Utica Core Marcellus Horizontal 1 Well Completed Sulger Farms Marcellus Horizontal 1 Well Completed Hemlock 2 Marcellus Horizontals Beechwood Marcellus Horizontal 1 Well Drilled West Branch Marcellus Horizontal Beechwood Marcellus Horizontal
Slide 18: Strong Wells Across WDA Acreage
Area Producing Well Count Peak 24-Hour Rate (MMcfd) Average 7-Day (MMcf/d) Average Treatable Lateral Length Area Producing Well Count Peak 24-Hour Rate (MMcfd) Average 7-Day (MMcf/d) Treatable Lateral Length Marcellus Shale Strong Wells Across WDA Acreage Clermont/Rich Valley Elk, Cameron & McKean c
Slide 19: Clermont Wells Improved from Early Non-Op JV Wells
Marcellus Shale Clermont Wells Improved from Early Non-Op JV Wells Clermont 5H & 6H (Non-op wells) Avg. lateral length: 3,344’ Small casing: 4.5” Restricted pump rates Wide stage spacing: 350’ No “soaking”, low Sw’s Clermont 9H & 10H (Seneca wells) Avg. lateral length: ~5,500’ Larger casing: 5.5” In
Slide 20: Clermont/Rich Valley RCS Wells Outperforming Typecurve
Marcellus Shale Clermont/Rich Valley RCS Wells Outperforming Typecurve Rich Valley 27H - 6,372 FT - RCS Clermont 9H - 5,500 FT - RCS Clermont 10H - 5,565 FT - non RCS Typecurve - 6,000 FT - 6.9 Bcf 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 Months
Slide 21: CRV is in Full Development Mode
Pad D08-N: Spacing Test Pad E09-E Pad C08-G Rich Valley 2 nd Well 7-day IP: 4.5 MMcf/d Lateral Length: 4,492’ Rich Valley 7-day IP: 7.8 MMcf/d EUR: 7.4 BCF Lateral Length: 6,372’ Clermont RCS: 9H 7-day IP: 10.0 MMcf/d (EUR: 8.6 Bcf) Non-RCS: 10H 7-day IP: 7.4 MMcf/d Pad D08-G Pad C08-F Pad D09-D JV
Slide 22: 200,000 Acres With 6-8 Bcfe EUR Wells
Marcellus Shale 200,000 Acres With 6-8 Bcfe EUR Wells SRC Lease Acreage SRC Fee Acreage EOG Earned JV Acreage 2014 Appraisal Program 2015+ Locations 4 - 6 BCF/well 6 - 8 BCF/well 2-4 BCF/well 2-4 BCF/well Note: Assumes 6,000’ treated lateral length 4 - 6 BCF/well
Slide 23: Position Offers Attractive Economics at $2.00 to $3.80/Mcfe
Prospect County Product Approx. Remaining Locations EUR (Bcfe) BTU IRR (1) @ $4/MMBtu 15% IRR (1) Breakeven Price ($/Mcf) Marcellus Shale Position Offers Attractive Economics at $2.00 to $3.80/Mcfe EASTERN DEVELOPMENT AREA (EDA) Tract 100 Lycoming Dry Gas 11.5-12.5 1,030 90% $1.92 Gamble Lycoming Dr
Slide 24: How Does Seneca Sell its Production?
Well Head Interconnection with Interstate Pipeline Network 3rd Party Marketer (or spot market) Firm Transport Demand Center (firm sales or spot market) Spot Market Natural Gas Marketing How Does Seneca Sell its Production? Gathering System Contracted Basis Differential FT Rate Breakeven economics ba
Slide 25: Adding Long-Term Firm Transport to the Portfolio
Project (Counterparty) In- Service Date Contract Term Delivery Market FT Capacity (Dth/day) Matched Firm Sales Fiscal 2015 Fiscal 2016 Fiscal 2017 Fiscal 2018 Natural Gas Marketing Adding Long-Term Firm Transport to the Portfolio Northeast Supply Diversification Project (TGP) Nov. 15 years Canada 50
Slide 26: Significant Base of Long-Term Firm Contracts
Natural Gas Marketing Significant Base of Long-Term Firm Contracts Over time, Seneca plans to enter into firm sales agreements to support all of its firm transportation capacity Atlantic Sunrise Northern Access 2016 Niagara Expansion/ Northern Access 2015 Base Firm Sales Contracts Firm Sales Matched
Slide 27: Firm Sales Provide a Market for Appalachian Production
27 NYMEX 242,885 Less: $0.72 NYMEX 217,502 Less: $0.47 33,152 Fixed $3.77 (1) NYMEX 216,136 Less: $0.42 50,000 Fixed $3.77 NYMEX 165,036 Less: $0.34 50,000 Fixed $3.77 NYMEX 165,036 Less: $0.34 50,000 Fixed $3.77 Natural Gas Marketing Firm Sales Provide a Market for Appalachian Production EDA 336,53
Slide 28: Current Natural Gas Hedge Positions
22.3 70.7 37.8 25.0 9.0 3.0 Natural Gas Marketing Current Natural Gas Hedge Positions (1) 2014 hedge positions are for the remaining three months of the fiscal year. Full details can be found in the appendix. (1) 7.2 18.7 18.8 18.8 29.8 90.6 65.7 46.8 5.6 Fiscal Year Dominion NYMEX Other
Slide 29: Current Hedge Book has Seneca Positioned Very Well
Crude Oil $100.22/Bbl $95.27/Bbl $92.95/Bbl $92.30/Bbl $91.00/Bbl Natural Gas Marketing Current Hedge Book has Seneca Positioned Very Well (1) 2014 hedge positions are for the remaining three months of the fiscal year Note: Hedge positions for fiscal years 2016-2018 reflect the midpoint of Seneca’s
Slide 30: FY 14 Production – Firm Sales & Hedge Composition
18.3 Bcf 7.0 Bcf 9.5 Bcf 5.5 Bcf Natural Gas Marketing FY 2014 Production – Firm Sales & Hedge Composition Price Certainty Price Certainty 98.8 Bcf 3.9 Bcf 139-147 Q1 - Q3 DOM East Division Production NYMEX Firm Sales Firm Sales Fixed Price Sales EDA Spot Sales WDA Total Spot Sales East Division Pro
Slide 31: FY 2015 Production – Firm Sales & Hedge Composition
58.2 Bcf 18.0 Bcf 13.6 Bcf 41.4 Bcf 36.8 Bcf Natural Gas Marketing FY 2015 Production – Firm Sales & Hedge Composition Price Certainty Seneca will continue to pursue firm sales agreements to mitigate spot market exposure during the year Price Certainty 10.0 Bcf 159-197 NYMEX Firm Sales DOM Firm Sale
Slide 32: Path to Geneseo Development – 2018/2019 Start
Geneseo Shale Path to Geneseo Development – 2018/2019 Start Tract 100/Gamble (Lycoming County) Geneseo Well st Well (Tract – Pad N) Peak IP: 14.1 MMcf per day 30-Day Average Rate: 8.6 MMcf per day Estimated EUR: 7.0 Bcf Lateral Length: 4,920’ Frac Stages: 33 stages Current developed infrastructure f
Slide 33: Industry Activity & 2014 Appraisal Program
Heath Cored May 2014 DCNR 007 Core & Drill August 2014 Point Pleasant & Utica Shale Industry Activity & 2014 Appraisal Program RANGE RESOUCES 1.4 MMcf/d “Not Effectively Stimulated” HALCON 2.5 MMcf/d, 360 Bbls/d HALCON 4.5 MMcf/d, 860 Bbls/d HALCON 6.6 MMcf/d, 750 Bbls/d CHESAPEAKE 6.4 MMcf/d RANGE
Slide 34: Stable Production Fields; Modest Growth Potential
East Coalinga Temblor Formation Primary North Lost Hills Tulare & Etchegoin Formation Primary/Steamflood South Lost Hills Monterey Shale Primary North Midway Sunset Tulare & Potter Formation Steamflood South Midway Sunset Antelope Formation Steamflood Sespe Sespe Formation Primary Key Areas of Focus
Slide 35: East Coalinga Summary
California East Coalinga Summary Production has increased from 214 BOPD to 749 BOPD • Highest on leases since 2000 Drilled 12 evaluation wells in 2013 • Producing ~150 BOPD Currently drilling 31 new producers and 2 water disposal wells in 2014 2014 Location 2013 Well Active Well Idle Well P&A Seneca
Slide 36: South Midway Sunset Has Delivered Significant Growth
Seneca Acquired in June 2009 California South Midway Sunset Has Delivered Significant Growth 252 Pool 97X Pool SE Pool 251 Pool B Pool A Pool Extended Pool Boundary Original Pool Boundary Existing Wells 1000’ 16X Pool Highlights Since Acquisition Increased daily production 310% to approximately 1,70
Slide 37: Evaluating the Monterey Shale at South Lost Hills
California Evaluating the Monterey Shale at South Lost Hills Citrus 11 Upper Antelope A Upper Antelope B McDonald Truman 1H 190 BOEPD Citrus 2H Waiting on Completion Truman 2H Waiting on Completion GR SP ResD Brittleness Gas Oil 18 potential locations in each of the three horizons (concept) Seneca L
Slide 38: Modest Growth Opportunities, But Strong Economics
Field Average Well Cost Average EUR (MBO) Estimated IRR @$100/Bbl Fiscal 2015 Locations California Modest Growth Opportunities, But Strong Economics South Midway Sunset $250,000 75% East Coalinga $400,000 50% Sespe – Coldwater $2,800,000 35%
Slide 39: Modest Growth Anticipated in 2014 and 2015
California Modest Growth Anticipated in 2014 and 2015 Forecast 9,056 8,773 9,322 9,078 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 (Est.) (Est.) Fiscal Year
Slide 40: Outstanding Cash Flow
California Outstanding Cash Flow (1) (1) Adjusted EBITDA and Capital Expenditures represent Seneca Resources Corporation’s West Division, which includes its activity in Kansas. A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income is included at the end of this presentation. $31.4 $27.6 $47.4 $62.9 $104
Slide 41: Looking Forward
California Looking Forward 1. Manage decline of base production 2. Pursue and develop opportunities for growth from current assets East Coalinga Sespe South Midway Sunset 3. Continue to pursue additional acquisition and farm-in opportunities
Slide 42: What Will Seneca Look Like Moving Forward?
Consistent Production Growth: 15-25% CAGR Driven by a very large, high-quality Appalachian acreage position Maintain Oil Production Expand When Possible Excellent operator and significant cash flow generation Disciplined Spending Driven by Rates of Return Pace of development adapts to changing marke
Slide 43: Midstream Businesses Overview
Midstream Businesses Overview
Slide 44: Positioned to Serve Seneca's Rapidly Growing Production
Midstream Businesses Positioned to Serve Seneca’s Rapidly Growing Production
Slide 45: Gathering is the First Step to Reaching a Market
Trout Run Gathering System (In-Service) Covington Gathering System (In-Service) Clermont Gathering System (In-Service) Gathering Interconnects Gathering Gathering is the First Step to Reaching a Market $17.5 $34.8 $72 - $74 $90- $110 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 2014E 2015E Fiscal Year Gathering Segment Reve
Slide 46: Gathering Systems Supporting Seneca's EDA Production
Gathering Gathering Systems Supporting Seneca’s EDA Production Covington Gathering System In-service date: November 2009 Capacity: 220,000 Dth per day Interconnect: TGP 300 Capital expenditures (to date): $31.3 million Trout Run Gathering System In-service date: May 2012 Capacity: 466,000 to 585,000
Slide 47: Clermont Gathering System has Large Expandability
Clermont Gathering System Compressor Station Interconnect Gathering Clermont Gathering System has Large Expandability In-Service: July 2014 Ultimate Trunkline Capacity: 1+ Bcf per day Interconnects TGP 300 and National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation (anticipated Nov. 2015) Capital: 2014: $75 - $100 mil
Slide 48: Capital Deployment Will Deliver Long-Term Growth
Gathering Capital Deployment Will Deliver Long-Term Growth Revenue Growth (2013 to 2015): ~70% CAGR Capital Investment (2013 to 2015): ~65% CAGR
Slide 49: Project Opportunities to Support WDA Growth
Develop multiple outlets to high-value markets Pipeline & Storage Project Opportunities to Support WDA Growth
Slide 50: Expansions to Move Gas from the WDA are Significant
Projects to Support WDA Growth Pipeline & Storage Expansions to Move Gas from the WDA are Significant Project Capacity (Dth/day) Northern Access 2015 140,000 Northern Access 2016 (1) 350,000 Total New Capacity 490,000 Project Capital Cost Northern Access 2015 $66 million Northern Access 2016 (1) $41
Slide 51: Major Expansion Designed for Canadian Deliveries
Northern Access 2015 Pipeline & Storage Major Expansion Designed for Canadian Deliveries In-Service: November 2015 System: NFG Supply Corp. Capacity: 140,000 Dth per day Lease to TGP (Kinder) as part of their Niagara Expansion project Interconnect Niagara (TransCanada) Total Cost: $66 Million Major
Slide 52: Northern Access 2016 Provides Additional Access to Canada
Northern Access 2016 (1) Pipeline & Storage Northern Access 2016 Provides Additional Access to Canada In-Service: Late 2016 System: NFG Supply Corp. & Empire Pipeline, Inc. Capacity 350,000 Dth per day Interconnect Chippawa (TransCanada) Total Cost: ~$410 Million Northern Access 2016 (Late 2016) Cle
Slide 53: Recent 3rd Party Expansions Have Been Highly Successful
Completed Expansions for 3 rd Parties Pipeline & Storage Recent 3 rd Party Expansions Have Been Highly Successful Project Capacity (Dth/day) Northern Access 2012 320,000 Tioga County Extension 350,000 Line N (2011, 2012 & 2013) 353,000 Total New Capacity 1,023,000 Project Capital Cost Northern Acces
Slide 54: Additional Line N Expansions Planned for the Future
Mercer Expansion Pipeline & Storage Additional Line N Expansions Planned for the Future In-Service: November 2014 System: NFG Supply Corp. Capacity: 105,000 Dth per day Precedent agreements signed for all available capacity Interconnect Mercer (TGP Station 219) Total Cost: $34 Million Expansion: $30
Slide 55: Pairing Line N Expansions with System Modernization
Westside Expansion & Modernization Mercer (TGP Station 219) Pipeline & Storage Pairing Line N Expansions with System Modernization In-Service: November 2015 System: NFG Supply Corp. Capacity: 175,000 Dth per day Precedent agreements signed for all available capacity Interconnect Mercer (TGP Station
Slide 56: Developing Unique Solutions for Shippers
Tuscarora Lateral Pipeline & Storage Developing Unique Solutions for Shippers In-Service: November 2015 System: NFG Supply & Empire Pipeline New No-Notice Services Preserving 172,500 Dth per day (RG&E) Preserving 20,000 Dth per day (NYSEG) Retained Storage: 3.3 Bcf New Incremental Transportation Cap
Slide 57: Significant Expansions Are Driving Growth
Completed Projects (Since 2009) Line N Corridor Line “N” Expansion Line “N” 2012 Expansion Line “N” 2013 Expansion Mercer Expansion West Side Expansion Total Capacity 633 MDth/d Delivering Gas North Tioga County Extension Northern Access 2012 Northern Access 2015 Northern Access 2016 (1) Total Capac
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Slide 59: New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories
Utility New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories Total Customers: 522,000 Rate Mechanisms: Revenue Decoupling Weather Normalization Low Income Rates Merchant Function Charge 90/10 Sharing (Large Customers) NY PSC Rate Case Settlement, May 2014 Rates Unchanged 9.1% ROE Confirmed 2-Tier Earnings Sh
Slide 60: Shifting Trends in Customer Usage
Utility Shifting Trends in Customer Usage Residential Usage Industrial Usage (1) Weighted Average of New York and Pennsylvania service territories (assumes normal weather)
Slide 61: A Proven History of Controlling Costs
Utility A Proven History of Controlling Costs
Slide 62: Capital Spending Largely Focused on Maintenance
Utility Capital Spending Largely Focused on Maintenance The Utility remains focused on maintaining the ongoing safety and reliability of its system Near-term increase in capital expenditures is due to the approx. $60MM upgrade of the Utility’s Customer Information System (CIS)
Slide 63: A History of Success & A Future of Opportunity
Adjusted EBITDA Growth Production Growth Midstream Businesses Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA Growth Production Growth Midstream Businesses Adjusted EBITDA A History of Success A Future of Opportunity National Fuel Gas Company A History of Success & A Future of Opportunity 30% CAGR Since 2009 10-15%
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Slide 65: Current Hedge Positions
Fiscal Year NYMEX Volume (MMBtu) Avg Price Dominion Volume (MMBtu) Avg Price SoCal Volume (MMBtu) Avg Price MichCon Volume (MMBtu) Avg Price Total Volume (MMBtu) Avg Price Fiscal Year MWSS Volume (Bbl) Average Price Brent Volume (Bbl) Average Price NYMEX Volume (Bbl) Average Price Total Volume (Bbl)
Slide 66: Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides and Reconciliations
National Fuel Gas Company Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides and Reconciliations This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. For pages that contain non-GAAP financial measures, pages containing the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are pro
Slide 67: Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Consolidated Net Income
Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Consolidated Net Income ($ Thousands) FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 Exploration & Production - West Division Adjusted EBITDA 171,572 $ 187,838 $ 187,603 $ 226,897 $ 215,042 $ 212,822 $ Exploration & Production - All Other Divisions Adjusted EBITDA 108,139 139,6
Slide 68: Reconciliation of Segment Capital Expenditures to Consolidated Capital Expenditures
Reconciliation of Segment Capital Expenditures to Consolidated Capital Expenditures ($ Thousands) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Forecast Forecast Capital Expenditures from Continuing Operations Exploration & Production Capital Expenditures 188,290 $ 398,174 $ 648,815 $ 693,
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