Slide 1: Q4 2022 Investor Review & 2023 Guidance
Q4 2022 Investor Review & 2023 Guidance February 22, 2023
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this presentation to “GFL”, “we”, “our”, “us”, the “Company” or similar terms refer to GFL Environmental Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Forward-Looking Information This presentation includes certain “forward-looking statements” and “f
Slide 3: Q4 2022 & Fiscal 2022 Highlights
Q4 2022 & Fiscal 2022 Highlights Notable Highlights Grew revenue by 31.6% and increased Adjusted EBITDA(1) and Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1) by 22.0% and 20.6%, respectively Delivered Outperformed our previously increased full year 2022 guidance despite ongoing inflationary cost pressures and supp
Slide 4: Multi-Pronged Growth Strategy to Create Long-Term Shareholder Value
Multi-Pronged Growth Strategy to Create Long-Term Shareholder Value Reinvest Excess Maximize Value Drive Organic Expand Adjusted Reduce Cost of Free Cash Flow From Sustainability Growth EBITDA Margin(1) Debt into M&A Strategy Initiatives Optimize base Leverage investment Continue to improve
Slide 5: Q4 2022 Bridges – Implied Guidance vs Actual
Q4 2022 Bridges – Implied Guidance vs Actual Revenue Bridge Environmental New M&A / Services Outperformance Outperformance $25 Solid Waste $75 Price & Surcharges $11 $1,821 $1,710 Implied Q4 2022 Q4 2021 A Solid Price & Surcharges ES Outperformance New M&A Q42022 Q4 2022A Guidance Actual Adjusted EB
Slide 6: Q4 2022 Solid Waste Adjusted EBITDA Margin Bridge – Year-Over-Year
Q4 2022 Solid Waste Adjusted EBITDA Margin(1) Bridge – Year-Over-Year Commodities (110 bps) Indirect Fuel(2) Price in Excess of (80 bps) All Other Costs Direct Fuel (50 bps) M&A 125 bps (65 bps) 45 bps improvement from impact of fuel costs relative to Q3 2022 as fuel surcharge implementation 30.0% a
Slide 7: Fuel Surcharge Implementation Continued to Accelerate
Fuel Surcharge Implementation Continued to Accelerate Direct & Indirect Fuel Price Impact & Change in Fuel Surcharge Significant Incremental Fuel Cost Recovery Opportunity 85% 75% 50% 40% Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Q4-22 Future State Fuel Price Impact - Direct Fuel Price Impact - Indirect Change in Fuel Surc
Slide 8: Net Leverage in Constant Currency – Delevering Driven by Growth
Net Leverage(1) in Constant Currency – Delevering Driven by Growth Illustrative Net Leverage(1) Profile at December 31, 2021 FX Rate Subsequent to the initial full year 2022 guidance provided in February 2022: Interest rates increased between 400 bps and 450 bps Inflationary environment has been
Slide 9: Greater Weighting of Fixed Rate Obligations in Rising Rate Environment
Greater Weighting of Fixed Rate Obligations in Rising Rate Environment Variable vs Fixed Interest Current Debt Maturity Profile Anticipate Credit Rating Upgrades Prior to Maturity Revolver 9% TLB Amended & TLA Extended to 2027E Unsecured Notes 5% 30% 2,762 1,743 2,032 ~$9.2B TLB 19% 1,310 (As at Q4
Slide 10: 2023 Guidance
2023 Guidance ,
Slide 11: Fiscal 2023 Guidance – Revenue Bridge
Fiscal 2023 Guidance – Revenue Bridge Net M&A FX Solid Waste Roll Over ~1.8%(1) Price & Commodity Environmental ~3.5% – ~4.0% Surcharges Price Impact Services ~6.5% – ~7.0% ~(0.7%) ~0.5% – ~1.0% Preliminary perspective at Reflects Reflects ~3.0% – 1.36 vs guidance decrease in ~5.5% total at 1.34 ave
Slide 12: Fiscal 2023 Full Year Guidance
Fiscal 2023 Full Year Guidance Fiscal 2022 Fiscal 2023 (C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) Actuals Guidance Revenue Organic growth between ~6.4% – ~7.3% Net M&A roll over between ~3.5% – ~4.0% $6,761 $7,550 – $7,650 F/X impact of ~1.8%(1) Adjusted EBITDA(2) Adjusted EBITDA margin(2) of 26.
Slide 13: Fiscal 2023 Priorities
Fiscal 2023 Priorities Outsized Adjusted EBITDA Margin(1) Expansion Continued focus on price-led growth Ongoing cost base optimization Moderating inflationary cost environment Bring Initial RNG Projects Online On-track to bring 3 RNG projects online in 2H 2023 Potential Run-Rate EBITDA(1)
Slide 14: GFL Renewables – Illustrative RNG Contribution
GFL Renewables – Illustrative RNG Contribution(1) 3 RNG Projects 11 RNG Projects 7 RNG Projects ~4.0M MMBtu ~5.0M MMBtu ~5.5M MMBtu 2H 2023 2H 2023E 2024E 2025E $45 $60 $105 $70 $175 $30 $45 $30 $45 $25 $35 $30 $60 $30 $45 $25 $10 $45 2023E Projects 2024E Projects Cumulative 2025E Projects Cumulativ
Slide 15: Potential U.S. Solid Waste Divestitures
Potential U.S. Solid Waste Divestitures Continued assessment of rationalization opportunities of non-core assets across portfolio Identified non-core Solid Waste operations acquired as part of several recent larger acquisitions in the United States • Potential to divest three distinct U.S. Solid
Slide 16: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 17: Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) 1. Comparative figures: Comparative figures have been re-presented, refer to Note 25 in our Annual Financial Statements. Three months ended Year ended December 31, December 31, 2. (Gain) loss on foreign exchange: Consists of (i) no
Slide 18: Adjusted Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Reconciliation (C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) 1. Operating cash flows from discontinued operations: Consists of operating cash flows from discontinued operations. As at December 31, 2022, GFL’s Infrastructure Three months ended Year ended services division was presente
Slide 19: Adjusted Net (Loss) Income from Continuing Operations Reconciliation
Adjusted Net (Loss) Income from Continuing Operations Reconciliation (C$ and shares in millions, unless otherwise noted) 1. Comparative figures: Comparative figures have been re-presented, refer to Note 25 in our Annual Financial Statements. Three months ended Year ended December 31, December 31, 2.
Slide 20: Definitions
Definitions “EBITDA” represents, for the applicable period, net income (loss) from continuing operations plus (a) interest and other finance costs, plus (b) depreciation and amortization of property and equipment, landfill assets and intangible assets, plus (less) (c) the provision (recovery) for in