Yara International ASA · OSL:YAR
Yara International ASA — 2020 03 19 market
12 slides from Yara International ASA's investor presentation, Mar 19, 2021
Slide 1: Fertilizer market update
Fertilizer market update Dag Tore Mo, Director Market Intelligence 19 March 2021
Slide 2: Food prices on the rise since May, another increase in February
Food prices on the rise since May, another increase in February, highest since July 2014 2
Slide 3: Urea prices strong, bullish sentiment in agriculture, demand rationing needed
Urea prices strong, bullish sentiment in agriculture in general, demand rationing needed 410 390 370 350 330 USD/ton 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Black Sea Urea prilled fob
Slide 4: Both wheat and corn stable recently at the elevated level
Both wheat and corn stable recently at the elevated level Corn May 21 USA, USc/bu Wheat May 21 USA, USc/bu Fundamental factors behind development include generally strong global demand, China adding corn to its list of agricultural imports, downward revision to US 2020 corn production, discussion
Slide 5: What is China up to on feed grains?
What is China up to on feed grains? China energy feedstuff imports forecast record high, exceeding 2014/15 Accumulated net sales – wold total (Corn) Source: Yara 3/19/2021 5
Slide 6: Urea: Export from China strong recently, 2020 up on 2019
Urea: Export from China strong recently, 2020 up on 2019 Urea export from China, mt urea, accumulative Comparison YTD December, mt urea 6 +10% 2017 2018 2019 2020 5.5 5 4.9 4 3 2.5 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 6
Slide 7: Chinese production rebounding in February as natural gas available again
Chinese production rebounding in February, as natural gas is again available for nitrogen production, and margins are strong Chinese urea production, mt urea Chinese domestic urea balance, mt urea 5.2 30 3.7 27.6 26.7 3.2 5.0 23.5 +1% 23.8 20/21 25 19/20 4.8 20 4.6 15 4.4 4.2 10 4.0 5 3.8 0 3.6 Dome
Slide 8: US net nitrogen imports
US net nitrogen imports 4500 18/19 4000 3500 19/20 3000 20/21 2500 000 metric tons N 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun TFI product selection
Slide 9: Higher nitrogen supply growth forecast in 2021, higher risk of project delays
Higher nitrogen supply growth forecast in 2021, however higher than normal risk of project delays Global urea capacity additions ex. China (mill. tonnes) India Algeria Others Russia USA Production 6.7 Iran Nigeria 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.2 2.6% consumption growth 2.7 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.2 2014 2015 2016 201
Slide 10: Apparent urea consumption ex. China up 3.8% in 2019
Apparent urea consumption ex. China – up 3.8% (4.6 million tons) in 2019, to 126.3 million tons 140 130 120 million tons urea 110 100 90 The trend from 2009-2019 shows a growth rate of 2.6%/year 80 70 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: IFA, GTIS for Chinese imports
Slide 11: US and European natural gas (Henry Hub and TTF)
10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr USD/millbtu May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb TTF Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Henry Hub Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar US and European natural gas ( Henry Hub and TTF ) Apr
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